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Member since: Fri Oct 29, 2004, 06:05 PM
Number of posts: 233,117

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Jeopardy Regulars

It's night 12 for Seth

Palm Beach County, Florida closing all schools Thursday and Friday


New Providence island may face a direct hit for the first time in

eight decades. Good luck to the folks in Nassau. That would be a fugging disaster - Paradise island and all.

Bay Street can't handle that water.

Stay safe folks

Re Pence - I hope this comes up tonight

in the 'honest and trustworthy' section

Mike Pence was a young lawyer on the rise, challenging a longtime Democratic congressman in a Republican-leaning Indiana district.

And then, scandal.

Campaign finance records from the 1990 effort showed that Pence, then 31, had been using political donations to pay the mortgage on his house, his personal credit card bill, groceries, golf tournament fees and car payments for his wife.

The spending had not been illegal at the time. But it stunned voters — and undermined Pence’s strategy to portray the incumbent, Rep. Philip R. Sharp, as tainted by donations from special-interest political action committees.

“It was a brazen act of hypocrisy,” said Billy Linville, who was Sharp’s campaign manager. “It was a bombshell, for sure. . . . Without question, he may well have won the election if it had not been for that.”

That PTSD comment should break the fucking camel's back - '...his ignorance is profound...'

He's a despicable human being - a narcissistic sociopath without conscience.

Vice-President Joe Biden has attacked the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, for remarks suggesting that soldiers who suffer from mental health issues might not be as strong as those who don’t.

“How can he be so out of touch?” Biden asked in an interview that aired on Tuesday on CNN. The vice-president also said Trump is “not a bad man”. But he added: “His ignorance is profound, so profound.”

Hurricane Matthew - Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for all counties

in preparation for Matthew. Wow!

Jamaica is now on Tropical Storm Warning - not hurricane warning anymore. We're expecting torrential rain but are thrilled that we won't face the hurricane. Sadly Matthew has moved East and may give then the last thing they need - a direct hit on South-Western Haiti would be catastrophic.

Trump’s (Don the Con's) Fellow Travelers - Krugman

Trump’s Fellow Travelers

Donald Trump has just had an extraordinarily bad week, and Hillary Clinton an extraordinarily good one; betting markets now put Mrs. Clinton’s odds of winning almost as high as they were just after the Democratic convention. But both Mrs. Clinton’s virtues and Mr. Trump’s vices have been obvious all along. How, then, did the race manage to get so close on the eve of the debate?

A lot of the answer, I’ve argued, lies in the behavior of the news media, which spent the month before the first debate jeering at Mrs. Clinton, portraying minor missteps as major sins and inventing fake scandals out of thin air. But let us not let everyone else off the hook. Mr. Trump couldn’t have gotten as far as he has without the support, active or de facto, of many people who understand perfectly well what he is and what his election would mean, but have chosen not to take a stand.

Let’s start with the Republican political establishment, which is supporting Mr. Trump just as if he were a normal presidential nominee.

I’ve had a lot of critical things to say about Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House. One thing of which I would never accuse them, however, is stupidity. They know what kind of man they’re dealing with — but they are spending this election pretending that we’re having a serious discussion about policy, that a vote for Mr. Trump is simply a vote for lower marginal tax rates. And they should not be allowed to flush the fact of their Trump support down the memory hole when the election is behind us.

This goes in particular for Mr. Ryan, who has received extraordinarily favorable press treatment over the years — portrayed as an honest, serious policy wonk with a sincere concern for fiscal probity. This reputation was never deserved; his policy proposals have always been obvious flimflam. But in the past, criticisms of Mr. Ryan depended on pointing out hard stuff, like the fact that his numbers didn’t add up. Now it can be made much simpler: Every time he’s held up as an example of seriousness, remember that when it mattered, he backed Donald Trump.

Before the effin' media discuss whether the New York AG is being political I have one

simple question for them - does Don the Con's foundation have the correct paperwork to solicit money in New York - YES or fucking NO - the law is not blue or red.

Matthew Dumping Extreme Rains; Threat to Southeast U.S. Growing

Beyond The Bahamas: landfall threat for Southeast U.S. increasing
A significant westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew has occurred, and this could have big implications for the hurricane’s potential impact on the U.S. East Coast. The main reason appears to be stronger ridging south of 98L and north of Matthew than earlier predicted, which may help to nudge Matthew far enough west for major impacts along the Southeast U.S. coast. Last night’s 50 ensemble runs from the 00Z Monday European model included a number of tracks making landfall along the U.S. East Coast. Most concerning is that, for the first time in Matthew’s life, all four members of the Euro “high-probability” cluster--the members that most closely match the operational run--depict Matthew making landfall on Florida’s East Coast. (The 12Z Monday run of the NAM model also depicts the stronger ridge and suggests a Florida landfall, but the NAM is not designed to handle tropical cyclones and should be avoided for hurricane prediction, unless perhaps you’re Bart Simpson.)

Lending further credence to the westward shift are the latest 12Z Monday operational runs of our other two top track models, the GFS and UKMET. The 12Z UKMET brings Matthew into the East Coast of Florida, while the GFS brings Matthew considerably closer to the Florida coast than earlier runs, with a projected landfall in northern South Carolina this weekend (see Figure 4 below) and a second landfall on Cape Cod less than 36 hours later. The several previous operational GFS runs had suggested that a Southeast landfall would be limited to the NC Outer Banks at most. Likewise, the 12Z Monday GFS ensembles (GEFS) now include a majority of runs making landfall somewhere between Florida and North Carolina, a major shift west from previous GFS ensembles. In addition, the 12Z Monday run of the HWRF model is tracking about 1 degree (roughly 60 miles) west of its previous two runs, now showing a potential landfall in eastern North Carolina by late Friday.

In our next update this evening, we’ll look at results from the 12Z Euro and GFS ensemble runs and the 12Z Euro operational run. For now, it’s important to keep in mind that the uncertainty “cones” produced by NHC are not tailored specifically for a given hurricane: they are based on the average error in NHC forecasts over the preceding five years. On average, about two-thirds of all hurricanes stay within the cone, but some hurricanes are tougher to predict than others. Given the wide range of model guidance on Matthew, and the recent westward shift, the actual uncertainty for this hurricane may be wider than the 120-hour cone location implies. In any event, there is enough model support for various possibilities that people all the way from Florida to Maine should continue to take seriously the possibility of impacts from Matthew. As always, the NHC is the place to turn for official 5-day forecasts, including intensity and track guidance and cones of uncertainty.

Al Roker in on GEM$NBComcast discussing Matthew

Hurricane humor - so a media crew went to a fishing village

in the parish expecting the worst of Matthew (Portland). Some of the fisherman have moved their boats and other equipment but some will never be convinced that a storm is coming.

One showed the journalist a chicken on the beach and said nothing coming or 'dat chicken would never come a waterfront'. We were howling with laughter.

Word is herb is in short supply in the city but di aroma around the neighborhood is 'pungent'

All is well so far. The worst comes tonight and we should only experience tropical storm winds. The problem will be rain and sea surge.

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