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progree
progree's Journal
progree's Journal
February 24, 2023
And they show the last 5 months. I found the latest 12 months (and way beyond) at FRED:
PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
PCE Inflation (just came out today, February 24):
PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 6.2% 4.8% 2.1% 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 4.0%
CORE PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
4.3% 4.3% 5.4% 4.4% 5.1% 4.5% 5.4% 4.0% 3.6% 4.7%
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)
Producer Price Index (PPI)
OLD CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413?output_view=pct_1mth
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand less foods. energy. and trade services - This is the core measure that the BLS features, so I will follow their lead
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116?output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)
Why the Fed thinks core is better for forecasting future inflation: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143025190#post10
3 months annualized: Core CPI: 4.58%, Core PPI: 4.63%, Core PCE: 4.75%
I chose 3 months for its recency, but that it's still a longer period than one month, so less likely that one can dismiss it as a "one off", as some are trying to do.
To me, there's no way to look at any of these graphs without getting the impression that while inflation is down from the first half of 2022, the last 6 months are showing, at best, a consolidation at more than double the Fed's 2% target. Slightly less optimistically, inflation has been rewarming in the past 6 months.
The latest one-month numbers -- January numbers as reported mid-February (Feb 24 for PCE) -- aren't good either:
Core CPI: 5.06%, Core PPI: 7.27%, Core PCE: 7.07%
CPI: 6.38%, PPI: 8.18%, PCE: 7.69% annualized rates using the actual index numbers
Stocks, Treasury yields, and more (OMG!) : https://finance.yahoo.com/
Last 12 months monthly changes. And Graphs! And rolling 3 month averages
From the news release, http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
Prices
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for January increased 0.6 percent (table 9). Prices for goods and services both increased 0.6 percent as well. Food prices increased 0.4 percent and energy prices increased 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.6 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for January increased 5.4 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 4.7 percent and prices for services increased 5.7 percent. Food prices increased 11.1 percent and energy prices increased 9.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for January increased 0.6 percent (table 9). Prices for goods and services both increased 0.6 percent as well. Food prices increased 0.4 percent and energy prices increased 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.6 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for January increased 5.4 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 4.7 percent and prices for services increased 5.7 percent. Food prices increased 11.1 percent and energy prices increased 9.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.
And they show the last 5 months. I found the latest 12 months (and way beyond) at FRED:
PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
PCE Inflation (just came out today, February 24):
PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 6.2% 4.8% 2.1% 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 4.0%
CORE PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
4.3% 4.3% 5.4% 4.4% 5.1% 4.5% 5.4% 4.0% 3.6% 4.7%
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)
Producer Price Index (PPI)
OLD CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413?output_view=pct_1mth
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand less foods. energy. and trade services - This is the core measure that the BLS features, so I will follow their lead
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116?output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)
Why the Fed thinks core is better for forecasting future inflation: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143025190#post10
3 months annualized: Core CPI: 4.58%, Core PPI: 4.63%, Core PCE: 4.75%
I chose 3 months for its recency, but that it's still a longer period than one month, so less likely that one can dismiss it as a "one off", as some are trying to do.
To me, there's no way to look at any of these graphs without getting the impression that while inflation is down from the first half of 2022, the last 6 months are showing, at best, a consolidation at more than double the Fed's 2% target. Slightly less optimistically, inflation has been rewarming in the past 6 months.
The latest one-month numbers -- January numbers as reported mid-February (Feb 24 for PCE) -- aren't good either:
Core CPI: 5.06%, Core PPI: 7.27%, Core PCE: 7.07%
CPI: 6.38%, PPI: 8.18%, PCE: 7.69% annualized rates using the actual index numbers
Stocks, Treasury yields, and more (OMG!) : https://finance.yahoo.com/
February 22, 2023
And that was back when inflation looked like it was on a definite cool-down trend (I thought so too back then).
This January 31 - February 1 FOMC meeting (discussed above whose minutes came out today) was before:
* the very hot jobs report that came out February 3 with 517,000 new payroll jobs
* the hot CPI and PPI (wholesale prices) inflation reports below that came out in mid February
* the 3% (in just one month) retail sales sales increase in January (the report came out February 15).
Lately, particulary since the mid-February CPI and PPI and retail sales reports, all I have been reading are bullish (meaning pushing for larger interest rate increases) from various members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that vote on rate hikes,
As for the meme that interest rate rises won't affect the current inflation, because it's is a global phenomenon caused by supply chain disruptions, Ukraine/Russia, etc., that may be true, but I should note that none of the FOMC or other Federal Reserve people talk that way, and neither, FWIW, does anyone in the administration that I've heard of. Paul Volcker would also disagree (however, the price we paid was a double-dip recession). As for globally, other central banks (except Turkey) have been pushing up their interest rates too.
So expect at least a 0.5% rate increase at the next FOMC meeting March 21-22. Don't be fooled by anything "dovish" that you read in the Jan 31 - Feb 1 meeting minutes above.
On the inflation front:
3 months annualized: Core CPI: 4.58%, Core PPI: 4.63%,
I chose 3 months for its recency, but that it's still a longer period than one month, so less likely that one can dismiss it as a "one off". (The latest one-month numbers -- January numbers as reported mid-February -- aren't good either: Core CPI: 5.06%, Core PPI: 7.27%, CPI: 6.38%, PPI: 8.18% annualized rates using the actual index numbers)
I thought they were on their way down before the mid-February reports of January inflation.
More on the graphs of monthly CPI, PPI, Core CPI, PPI, and why the Fed and I think core is better for predicting future inflation
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143034894#post1
At 4.5% inflation, the purchasing power of the dollar drops by half in just 16 years.
I'm not looking for the stock market to bail me out either - its valuations are way way high on a historic basis. That was justified back when interest rates were trivial (so there was no real competition to stocks - "TINA - There Is No Alternative" ), but not so much anymore.
Fed minutes: 'Ongoing' rate hikes needed, 2 officials wanted 50-point hike
Yahoo Finance, 2/22/23
This is in regard to the January 31 - February 1 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, whose meeting minutes came out today, Feb 22. These are the people that vote on interest rate hikes
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-minutes-ongoing-rate-hikes-needed-2-officials-wanted-50-point-hike-195355428.html
There's no sign of a coming pause at the Federal Reserve.
Instead, officials appeared to remain steadfast in their commitment to raising interest rates to beat inflation, according to minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting released Wednesday.
Fed officials felt inflation is still “unacceptably high” and that while inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome drop in the pace of monthly price increases, officials felt that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was coming down.
The minutes also said that "a few" participants favored raising the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the Feb. 1 policy meeting, noting that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance.
Still, several participants noted the possibility that as consumers become more price sensitive, businesses might accept lower profit margins in an effort to maintain market share, which could reduce inflation temporarily. And nearly all members favored slowing the pace of rate hikes to evaluate the impact that existing hikes have had on the economy.
Instead, officials appeared to remain steadfast in their commitment to raising interest rates to beat inflation, according to minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting released Wednesday.
Fed officials felt inflation is still “unacceptably high” and that while inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome drop in the pace of monthly price increases, officials felt that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was coming down.
The minutes also said that "a few" participants favored raising the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the Feb. 1 policy meeting, noting that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance.
Still, several participants noted the possibility that as consumers become more price sensitive, businesses might accept lower profit margins in an effort to maintain market share, which could reduce inflation temporarily. And nearly all members favored slowing the pace of rate hikes to evaluate the impact that existing hikes have had on the economy.
And that was back when inflation looked like it was on a definite cool-down trend (I thought so too back then).
This January 31 - February 1 FOMC meeting (discussed above whose minutes came out today) was before:
* the very hot jobs report that came out February 3 with 517,000 new payroll jobs
* the hot CPI and PPI (wholesale prices) inflation reports below that came out in mid February
* the 3% (in just one month) retail sales sales increase in January (the report came out February 15).
Lately, particulary since the mid-February CPI and PPI and retail sales reports, all I have been reading are bullish (meaning pushing for larger interest rate increases) from various members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that vote on rate hikes,
As for the meme that interest rate rises won't affect the current inflation, because it's is a global phenomenon caused by supply chain disruptions, Ukraine/Russia, etc., that may be true, but I should note that none of the FOMC or other Federal Reserve people talk that way, and neither, FWIW, does anyone in the administration that I've heard of. Paul Volcker would also disagree (however, the price we paid was a double-dip recession). As for globally, other central banks (except Turkey) have been pushing up their interest rates too.
So expect at least a 0.5% rate increase at the next FOMC meeting March 21-22. Don't be fooled by anything "dovish" that you read in the Jan 31 - Feb 1 meeting minutes above.
On the inflation front:
3 months annualized: Core CPI: 4.58%, Core PPI: 4.63%,
I chose 3 months for its recency, but that it's still a longer period than one month, so less likely that one can dismiss it as a "one off". (The latest one-month numbers -- January numbers as reported mid-February -- aren't good either: Core CPI: 5.06%, Core PPI: 7.27%, CPI: 6.38%, PPI: 8.18% annualized rates using the actual index numbers)
I thought they were on their way down before the mid-February reports of January inflation.
More on the graphs of monthly CPI, PPI, Core CPI, PPI, and why the Fed and I think core is better for predicting future inflation
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143034894#post1
At 4.5% inflation, the purchasing power of the dollar drops by half in just 16 years.
I'm not looking for the stock market to bail me out either - its valuations are way way high on a historic basis. That was justified back when interest rates were trivial (so there was no real competition to stocks - "TINA - There Is No Alternative" ), but not so much anymore.
February 21, 2023
Fossil Fuel Consumption Subsidies Soared to Record Heights in 2022
per IEA (International Energy Agency) report. More than double the 2021 amount, to more than $1 trillion in 2022.
usonian thread in General Discussion with big excerpt and link to the report -
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217666383
January 28, 2023
See below for the CDC covid-data-tracker page --
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
CDC Covid tracker rates by vaccine status - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status - as viewed 1/28/23
Scroll down to the graph. Realize that on the left side are two radio buttons where one can choose "deaths" or "cases"
The incidence rates below (CDC) are WEEKLY rates (i.e. cases per 100,000 per WEEK), in contrast to the NY Times numbers which are average DAILY rates. Whichever is used doesn't affect the relative risk of vaxxed vs. unvaxxed etc., but when looking at the incidence rates per 100k, the CDC numbers look much higher than the NY Times. This is why).
LATEST ON CASES (age 5 and older) is 12/18/22: Incidence per 100,000 population: Unvaxxed 271, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 98, Vaxxed with updated booster: 82. So relative to vaxxed with updated booster: Unvaxxed: 3.30 X, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 1.20 X.
LATEST ON DEATHS (age 5 and older) is 11/27/22: Incidence per 100,000 population Unvaxxed 1.79, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 0.35, Vaxxed with updated booster: 0.16. So relative to vaxxed with updated booster: Unvaxxed: 11.2 X, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 2.20 X (so get that bivalent booster -progree).
The box below the graph says: In November 2022, people ages 5 and older and vaccinated with an updated (bivalent) booster had:
Vaccines are great but I'd caution that they are not absolute protection
and that each variant that gains dominance is more infectious than the last, both for the unvaxxed and for the vaxxed. I keep that in mind when I do have to go out grocery shopping or whatever -- being fully vaxxed/boosted I'm maybe 3X lower risk of infection than the unvaxxed, but OTOH this thing keeps getting more and more infectious, so I don't really know what my risk of infection is compared to the early (pre-vax) days, but my guess is that it's not much different. Only that the consequences of an infection are much less than in the early days.
As an over-65 year old with at least one additional risk factor, I do worry about the consequences. If I was middle-aged or younger and healthy, I'd probably be a lot less worried.
NY Times U.S. page, as viewed 1/28/23
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
Scroll to the "Rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated" section with the average daily cases and average daily deaths graph
CASES: latest is Dec 18-24: Unvaxxed has 3X (2.76X if one does the math with the incidence rates that pop up) the risk as fully vaxxed. (For much of 2022 it ranged from 2X to 3X in rounded numbers)
DEATHS: latest is Nov 27-Dec 3, unvaxxed have 5x (5.2X if one does the math) the risk as fully vaxxed
Number in ()'s are the ratios I calculated at the end point from the pop-up that pops up.
About this data -- Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status ). This data was first made available on Oct. 19 2021, and is expected to update monthly. The C.D.C. releases the data as a weekly figure per 100,000 and is presented here as a daily average per 100,000 for consistency with other population-adjusted figures on this page. See the notes on the C.D.C.’s page for more information.
See below for the CDC covid-data-tracker page --
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
CDC Covid tracker rates by vaccine status - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status - as viewed 1/28/23
Scroll down to the graph. Realize that on the left side are two radio buttons where one can choose "deaths" or "cases"
The incidence rates below (CDC) are WEEKLY rates (i.e. cases per 100,000 per WEEK), in contrast to the NY Times numbers which are average DAILY rates. Whichever is used doesn't affect the relative risk of vaxxed vs. unvaxxed etc., but when looking at the incidence rates per 100k, the CDC numbers look much higher than the NY Times. This is why).
LATEST ON CASES (age 5 and older) is 12/18/22: Incidence per 100,000 population: Unvaxxed 271, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 98, Vaxxed with updated booster: 82. So relative to vaxxed with updated booster: Unvaxxed: 3.30 X, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 1.20 X.
LATEST ON DEATHS (age 5 and older) is 11/27/22: Incidence per 100,000 population Unvaxxed 1.79, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 0.35, Vaxxed with updated booster: 0.16. So relative to vaxxed with updated booster: Unvaxxed: 11.2 X, Vaxxed w/o updated booster: 2.20 X (so get that bivalent booster -progree).
The box below the graph says: In November 2022, people ages 5 and older and vaccinated with an updated (bivalent) booster had:
12.7X lower risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to unvaxxed people and 2.4X lower risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to people vaxxed without the updated (bivalent) booster.
December 26, 2022
All emphasis mine. I was going through some news notes from August when it first got a no vote on its property tax millage. I wondered what the situation was currently. Unfortunately, this is what I found from a Google search.
Michigan residents vote to defund public library again over LGBTQ books (from Nov. 11)
The Hill, November 11, 2022
Residents of a Western Michigan town on Tuesday voted for a second time to defund their only public library, putting it in jeopardy of closing permanently and closing out the latest chapter in a months-long battle between the library and community members outraged over books centered around LGBTQ issues and identities.
Nearly 56 percent of voters in Jamestown Township, Mich., rejected a proposal to renew a property tax that accounts for more than 80 percent of the annual operating budget for the Patmos Library, according to county election results.
On Thursday, the library wrote on its Facebook page that its hours of operation would be reduced for a number of days, citing staff shortages. ...
The library, which has received hundreds of thousands of dollars in online donations since it was first defunded in August, is likely to run out of money by early 2024, according to Walton.
More: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3731380-michigan-residents-vote-to-defund-public-library-again-over-lgbtq-books/
Residents of a Western Michigan town on Tuesday voted for a second time to defund their only public library, putting it in jeopardy of closing permanently and closing out the latest chapter in a months-long battle between the library and community members outraged over books centered around LGBTQ issues and identities.
Nearly 56 percent of voters in Jamestown Township, Mich., rejected a proposal to renew a property tax that accounts for more than 80 percent of the annual operating budget for the Patmos Library, according to county election results.
On Thursday, the library wrote on its Facebook page that its hours of operation would be reduced for a number of days, citing staff shortages. ...
The library, which has received hundreds of thousands of dollars in online donations since it was first defunded in August, is likely to run out of money by early 2024, according to Walton.
More: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3731380-michigan-residents-vote-to-defund-public-library-again-over-lgbtq-books/
All emphasis mine. I was going through some news notes from August when it first got a no vote on its property tax millage. I wondered what the situation was currently. Unfortunately, this is what I found from a Google search.
December 23, 2022
PCE inflation indexes from the source. Last 5 month ANNUALIZED: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 12 months ANNUALIZED: PCE: +5.5%, CORE PCE: +4.7%
Last 5 month ANNUALIZED: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 2 months ANNUALIZED: PCE: +2.90%, CORE PCE: +2.61%
I put this in the CPI and PPI and PCE Megapost, 12/23/22
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143007428#post2
BEA report on incomes, outlays and PCE inflation:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022
PCE Inflation
MONTHLY CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
-0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 PCE
0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 Core PCE
12 MONTH CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.5 PCE
4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 CORE PCE
Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=2015&series=m&first_year=2020&last_year=2022&scale=-99&categories=underlying&thetable=#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJuaXBhX3RhYmxlX2xpc3QiLCIyMDEzIl0sWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il1dfQ==
. . . . . . . JAN FEB MAR ... NOV
. . . . . PCE 119.469 120.178 121.321 121.563 122.300 123.512 123.397 123.728 124.154 124.617 124.747
CORE PCE 120.761 121.205 121.651 122.030 122.488 123.258 123.352 124.031 124.607 124.933 125.143
PCE 5 months annualized: (124.747/123.512)^(12/5)-1 = .0242 = 2.42%
CORE PCE 5 months annualized: (125.143/123.258)^(12/5)-1 = .0371 = 3.71%
PCE 2 months annualized: (124.747/124.154)^(12/2)-1 = .0290 = 2.90%
CORE PCE 2 months annualized: (125.143/124.607)^(12/2)-1 = .0261 = 2.61%
December 16, 2022
I've been yammering in post after post here that it is completely and thoroughly idiotic, stupid, and asinine for the media to report only on the last month's number and the 12 months number (i.e. year-over-year). And to call the 12 month number the inflation rate when so much of it is ancient history. So I'm tickled ecstatic and I am tickled pink that somebody other than some message board rando like me thinks this too.
For example by emphasizing the last 5 months, which are far less dire than the 12 month numbers: "Today's report: Last 5 months, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%". (The 12 months numbers are 7.1% and 6.0% respectively).
Edited to add: Last 5 months ANNUALIZED: PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
I also put it with My latest CPI megapost that gets into shelter and rentals
Albeit there's been an increasing trend in the PPI in the last 4 months, though not so much in the CORE PPI though the last month came in at 0.3 (roughly 3.6% annualized)
Edited to add: Since the producer price index has come up, here is the same thing for the PPI for convenience of reference
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
Jeremy Siegel: we need to get out of this yoy look at inflation ... 11 months of outdated data
Siegel: "We need to get out of this year-over-year look at inflation. Remember, when we get year-over-year, we're getting 11 months of old, outdated data, and only 1 month of new data, and in fact that 1 month contains data that [Powell] admits, particularly in the housing sector, is extremely lagged,"
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says he's disappointed in the Fed's hypocrisy on inflation, and that Jerome Powell will be cutting interest rates next year, Markets Insider, 12/15/22
* Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel is not happy with the Fed's hawkishness that was telegraphed at Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
* Siegel said the Fed is contradicting itself as it focuses on crushing wages that are spiking due to supply side issues.
* Siegel ultimately expects that the Fed will be cutting interest rates in 2023, not raising them.
Specifically, Siegel called out the fact that when inflation was rising after the COVID-19 pandemic due to supply-side issues, Fed chairman Jerome Powell insisted that inflation was transitory and did not act against it via interest rate hikes.
But now Powell is doing the exact opposite when it comes to structural supply-side issues that are plaguing the labor market.
"Now he's saying there's supply-side problems in the labor market that may raise wages, and we have to crush the wages in order to stop inflation. That's just totally inconsistent as a part of monetary policy," Siegel told CNBC on Thursday. "The Fed is not supposed to act on structural shifts on supply-side problems."
"I was very disappointed in Powell in his reasoning and his justifications for this overly tight policy. He acknowledged that the housing data is lagged, that housing prices are actually going down, but we're not going to see it until the middle of next year. So we're going to wait until the middle of next year before we decide whether we need to pause the rate hikes, even though we know it today?" Siegel said.
MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-says-he-s-disappointed-in-the-fed-s-hypocrisy-on-inflation-and-that-jerome-powell-will-be-cutting-interest-rates-next-year/ar-AA15jPTt
* Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel is not happy with the Fed's hawkishness that was telegraphed at Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
* Siegel said the Fed is contradicting itself as it focuses on crushing wages that are spiking due to supply side issues.
* Siegel ultimately expects that the Fed will be cutting interest rates in 2023, not raising them.
Specifically, Siegel called out the fact that when inflation was rising after the COVID-19 pandemic due to supply-side issues, Fed chairman Jerome Powell insisted that inflation was transitory and did not act against it via interest rate hikes.
But now Powell is doing the exact opposite when it comes to structural supply-side issues that are plaguing the labor market.
"Now he's saying there's supply-side problems in the labor market that may raise wages, and we have to crush the wages in order to stop inflation. That's just totally inconsistent as a part of monetary policy," Siegel told CNBC on Thursday. "The Fed is not supposed to act on structural shifts on supply-side problems."
"I was very disappointed in Powell in his reasoning and his justifications for this overly tight policy. He acknowledged that the housing data is lagged, that housing prices are actually going down, but we're not going to see it until the middle of next year. So we're going to wait until the middle of next year before we decide whether we need to pause the rate hikes, even though we know it today?" Siegel said.
MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-says-he-s-disappointed-in-the-fed-s-hypocrisy-on-inflation-and-that-jerome-powell-will-be-cutting-interest-rates-next-year/ar-AA15jPTt
I've been yammering in post after post here that it is completely and thoroughly idiotic, stupid, and asinine for the media to report only on the last month's number and the 12 months number (i.e. year-over-year). And to call the 12 month number the inflation rate when so much of it is ancient history. So I'm tickled ecstatic and I am tickled pink that somebody other than some message board rando like me thinks this too.
For example by emphasizing the last 5 months, which are far less dire than the 12 month numbers: "Today's report: Last 5 months, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%". (The 12 months numbers are 7.1% and 6.0% respectively).
Edited to add: Last 5 months ANNUALIZED: PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
I also put it with My latest CPI megapost that gets into shelter and rentals
Albeit there's been an increasing trend in the PPI in the last 4 months, though not so much in the CORE PPI though the last month came in at 0.3 (roughly 3.6% annualized)
Edited to add: Since the producer price index has come up, here is the same thing for the PPI for convenience of reference
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
December 14, 2022
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
Last 5 months thru November, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
CPI Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 (12mo change)
CPI 5 months annualized thru November: (298349/295328)^(12/5)-1 = .0247 = 2.47%
CORE CPI 5 months annualized thru November (300066/294354)^(12/5)-1 = .0472 = 4.72%
And I found this. Watch from 0:40 to 1:50:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/jeremy-siegel-if-fed-stopped-looking-at-stale-housing-data-they-d-realize-inflation-is-over/vi-AA15exZ9
Title: Jeremy Siegel: If Fed stopped looking at stale housing data they'd realize inflation is over.
from video, my notes, not an exact transcript:
The shelter number in the CPI report is: November: +0.6%, 12 months: +7.1%
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
He doesn't say what's wrong with the CPI's housing data (called Shelter in the CPI reports I've seen). About all I "know" is that they use actual rental data and "owner's equivalent rent" where they ask the owners what they think they could rent it for. They don't use house prices at all -- they consider that an investment, not a consumer expenditure.
There's also articles that explain that rents are "sticky", i.e. a contract is signed for 12 months, so for any month, only 1/12 of them are new rentals or renewals -- these new or renewing rentals are going down. But because the other months stay where they are, the change in one or two months have little effect on the overall average. In any rolling average, what drops out the tail end is just as important as the new incoming numbers.
This doesn't explain a 0.6% increase just in November though.
CPI up 15.7% over past 3 years (5.0%/year). Past 2 years: up 14.4% (7.0%/year) (thru November 2022)
Past 1 year: up 7.1% (7.1%/year)
The per year number for the past 3 years (5.0%/year) is a little less than simply dividing the 15.7% by 3, because of compounding.
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
November CPI index numbers:
2019 2020 2021 2022
257.788 260.721 278.524 298.349
3 year change: (298.349/257.788) - 1 = 0.157 = 15.7%
Annualized: (298.349/257.788)^(1/3) - 1 = .050 = 5.0%
Similarly for the 2 year changes.
So basically we've had a 1.1% year (Nov'20/Nov'19) followed by a a 6.8% year (Nov'21/Nov'20) followed by a 7.1% year (Nov'22/Nov'21).
==== PRODUCER PRICE INDEX =================
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted thru November
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy thru November -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (140.975/140.361)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0105 = 1.05%
CORE PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (138.714/137.849)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0151 = 1.51% (less food & energy)
==== PCE PRICE INDEX (Fed's favorite) =================
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022
Last 12 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +5.5%, CORE PCE: +4.7%
Last 5 month ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 2 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.90%, CORE PCE: +2.61%
MONTHLY CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
-0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 PCE
0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 Core PCE
12 MONTH CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.5 PCE
4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 CORE PCE
Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=2015&series=m&first_year=2020&last_year=2022&scale=-99&categories=underlying&thetable=#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJuaXBhX3RhYmxlX2xpc3QiLCIyMDEzIl0sWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il1dfQ==
. . . . . . . JAN FEB MAR ... NOV
. . . . . PCE 119.469 120.178 121.321 121.563 122.300 123.512 123.397 123.728 124.154 124.617 124.747
CORE PCE 120.761 121.205 121.651 122.030 122.488 123.258 123.352 124.031 124.607 124.933 125.143
PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (124.747/123.512)^(12/5)-1 = .0242 = 2.42%
CORE PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (125.143/123.258)^(12/5)-1 = .0371 = 3.71%
PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (124.747/124.154)^(12/2)-1 = .0290 = 2.90%
CORE PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (125.143/124.607)^(12/2)-1 = .0261 = 2.61%
===================================================
Edited to Add: CPI For December from 1/12/23 report
CPI report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
Click on "More Formatting Options" near the top right, and check the checkboxes to show other periods like original, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and then click the "Retrieve Data" button
CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349 298.112
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 6.4 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066 300.974
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 5.7 (12mo change)
CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (298112/295328)^(12/6)-1 = .018942 = 1.89%
CORE CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (300974/294354)^(12/6)-1 = .045486 = 4.55%
Inflation Megapost updated 1/12/23 for Dec CPI numbers, also PPI and PCE thru Nov 😊
ETA: SUMMARY of LATEST 5 months ANNUALIZED through November as of 1/11/23
CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
PCE: 2.42%, CORE PCE: 3.71%
Update: December CPI report updated 1/12/23
Latest 6 (six) months ANNUALIZED
CPI: 1.89%, CORE CPI: 4.55%
Latest 3 (three) months ANNUALIZED thru December
CPI: 1.83%, CORE CPI: 3.14%
See bottom of post for details on the CPI released 1/12/23
For CPI and PCE, CORE means all items less food and energy
For PPI (producer price index), there seems to be two different definitions of Core. I chose the "less food and energy" one for consistency. The other, that the BLS highlights, is less food, energy, and trade services
CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
PCE: 2.42%, CORE PCE: 3.71%
Update: December CPI report updated 1/12/23
Latest 6 (six) months ANNUALIZED
CPI: 1.89%, CORE CPI: 4.55%
Latest 3 (three) months ANNUALIZED thru December
CPI: 1.83%, CORE CPI: 3.14%
See bottom of post for details on the CPI released 1/12/23
For CPI and PCE, CORE means all items less food and energy
For PPI (producer price index), there seems to be two different definitions of Core. I chose the "less food and energy" one for consistency. The other, that the BLS highlights, is less food, energy, and trade services
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
Last 5 months thru November, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
CPI Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 (12mo change)
CPI 5 months annualized thru November: (298349/295328)^(12/5)-1 = .0247 = 2.47%
CORE CPI 5 months annualized thru November (300066/294354)^(12/5)-1 = .0472 = 4.72%
And I found this. Watch from 0:40 to 1:50:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/jeremy-siegel-if-fed-stopped-looking-at-stale-housing-data-they-d-realize-inflation-is-over/vi-AA15exZ9
Title: Jeremy Siegel: If Fed stopped looking at stale housing data they'd realize inflation is over.
from video, my notes, not an exact transcript:
housing in the CPI report: +0.6%, is nonsense. Any rental index, any housing index, case shiller, Zillow - they are all going down. Housing is almost 40% of core inflation. Core inflation (with proper housing data) has been negative for the last 2 months
The shelter number in the CPI report is: November: +0.6%, 12 months: +7.1%
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
He doesn't say what's wrong with the CPI's housing data (called Shelter in the CPI reports I've seen). About all I "know" is that they use actual rental data and "owner's equivalent rent" where they ask the owners what they think they could rent it for. They don't use house prices at all -- they consider that an investment, not a consumer expenditure.
There's also articles that explain that rents are "sticky", i.e. a contract is signed for 12 months, so for any month, only 1/12 of them are new rentals or renewals -- these new or renewing rentals are going down. But because the other months stay where they are, the change in one or two months have little effect on the overall average. In any rolling average, what drops out the tail end is just as important as the new incoming numbers.
This doesn't explain a 0.6% increase just in November though.
CPI up 15.7% over past 3 years (5.0%/year). Past 2 years: up 14.4% (7.0%/year) (thru November 2022)
Past 1 year: up 7.1% (7.1%/year)
The per year number for the past 3 years (5.0%/year) is a little less than simply dividing the 15.7% by 3, because of compounding.
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
November CPI index numbers:
2019 2020 2021 2022
257.788 260.721 278.524 298.349
3 year change: (298.349/257.788) - 1 = 0.157 = 15.7%
Annualized: (298.349/257.788)^(1/3) - 1 = .050 = 5.0%
Similarly for the 2 year changes.
So basically we've had a 1.1% year (Nov'20/Nov'19) followed by a a 6.8% year (Nov'21/Nov'20) followed by a 7.1% year (Nov'22/Nov'21).
==== PRODUCER PRICE INDEX =================
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted thru November
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy thru November -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (140.975/140.361)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0105 = 1.05%
CORE PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (138.714/137.849)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0151 = 1.51% (less food & energy)
==== PCE PRICE INDEX (Fed's favorite) =================
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022
Last 12 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +5.5%, CORE PCE: +4.7%
Last 5 month ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 2 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.90%, CORE PCE: +2.61%
MONTHLY CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
-0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 PCE
0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 Core PCE
12 MONTH CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.5 PCE
4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 CORE PCE
Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=2015&series=m&first_year=2020&last_year=2022&scale=-99&categories=underlying&thetable=#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJuaXBhX3RhYmxlX2xpc3QiLCIyMDEzIl0sWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il1dfQ==
. . . . . . . JAN FEB MAR ... NOV
. . . . . PCE 119.469 120.178 121.321 121.563 122.300 123.512 123.397 123.728 124.154 124.617 124.747
CORE PCE 120.761 121.205 121.651 122.030 122.488 123.258 123.352 124.031 124.607 124.933 125.143
PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (124.747/123.512)^(12/5)-1 = .0242 = 2.42%
CORE PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (125.143/123.258)^(12/5)-1 = .0371 = 3.71%
PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (124.747/124.154)^(12/2)-1 = .0290 = 2.90%
CORE PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (125.143/124.607)^(12/2)-1 = .0261 = 2.61%
===================================================
Edited to Add: CPI For December from 1/12/23 report
CPI report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
Click on "More Formatting Options" near the top right, and check the checkboxes to show other periods like original, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and then click the "Retrieve Data" button
CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349 298.112
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 6.4 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066 300.974
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 5.7 (12mo change)
CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (298112/295328)^(12/6)-1 = .018942 = 1.89%
CORE CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (300974/294354)^(12/6)-1 = .045486 = 4.55%
December 11, 2022
And all the air quality and breathing issues, especially when a large fire breaks out ..
A trash heap 62 meters high shows the scale of India's climate challenge
(203 feet, 20 stories, about as tall as the Taj Mahal)
various excerpts --
A trash heap 62 meters high shows the scale of India's climate challenge, CNN, 12/11/22
At the Bhalswa landfill in northwest Delhi, a steady flow of jeeps zigzag up the trash heap to dump more garbage on a pile now over 62 meters (203 feet) high. Fires caused by heat and methane gas sporadically break out – the Delhi Fire Service Department has responded to 14 fires so far this year – and some deep beneath the pile can smolder for weeks or months, while men, women and children work nearby, sifting through the rubbish to find items to sell.
Some of the 200,000 residents who live in Bhalswa say the area is uninhabitable, but they can’t afford to move and have no choice but to breathe the toxic air and bathe in its contaminated water.
[the Global Methane Pledge] India says it won’t join because most of its methane emissions come from farming – some 74% from farm animals and paddy fields versus less than 15% from landfill.
“If sustained for a year, the methane leak from this landfill would have the same climate impact as annual emissions from 350,000 US cars,” said GHGSat CEO Stephane Germain.
[the water in the area] “This water is not only unfit for drinking but also unfit for skin contact,” she said. “So it can’t be used for purposes like bathing or cleaning of the utensils or cleaning of the clothes.” Most people in Bhalswa rely on bottled water for drinking, but they use local water for other purposes – many say they have no choice.
More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-trash-heap-62-meters-high-shows-the-scale-of-india-s-climate-challenge/ar-AA158IAP
At the Bhalswa landfill in northwest Delhi, a steady flow of jeeps zigzag up the trash heap to dump more garbage on a pile now over 62 meters (203 feet) high. Fires caused by heat and methane gas sporadically break out – the Delhi Fire Service Department has responded to 14 fires so far this year – and some deep beneath the pile can smolder for weeks or months, while men, women and children work nearby, sifting through the rubbish to find items to sell.
Some of the 200,000 residents who live in Bhalswa say the area is uninhabitable, but they can’t afford to move and have no choice but to breathe the toxic air and bathe in its contaminated water.
[the Global Methane Pledge] India says it won’t join because most of its methane emissions come from farming – some 74% from farm animals and paddy fields versus less than 15% from landfill.
“If sustained for a year, the methane leak from this landfill would have the same climate impact as annual emissions from 350,000 US cars,” said GHGSat CEO Stephane Germain.
[the water in the area] “This water is not only unfit for drinking but also unfit for skin contact,” she said. “So it can’t be used for purposes like bathing or cleaning of the utensils or cleaning of the clothes.” Most people in Bhalswa rely on bottled water for drinking, but they use local water for other purposes – many say they have no choice.
More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-trash-heap-62-meters-high-shows-the-scale-of-india-s-climate-challenge/ar-AA158IAP
And all the air quality and breathing issues, especially when a large fire breaks out ..
December 10, 2022
There's some 1849 anti-abortion law on the books in Wisconsin that was moot post-Roe and pre-Dobbs but is now the subject of litigation. (Edit: actually I don't know a thing about what went on pre-Roe in Wisconsin -- did the 1849 law apply back then? If not, why not?)
Anyway, when she heard about the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, and having heard of the 1849 Wisconsin law, she decided against trying to have any more children.
There are pro-natalists (8 billion is not enough!!) that are cheering Dobbs -- they might not realize it's a disincentive for some who want to have children.
===================================
Crossposted to Wisconsin Group as https://www.democraticunderground.com/108429173
Because of Wisconsin's abortion ban, one mother gave up trying for another child
Because of Wisconsin's abortion ban, one mother gave up trying for another child, NPR, 12/9/22
. . . After 10 long months of trying, Petranek got pregnant in March 2022. The whole family was thrilled. But at her first prenatal appointment, her doctor couldn't find a heartbeat. It was an early miscarriage.
Devastated, she went home to wait for the miscarriage to resolve. It was the second time she'd miscarried, and she was anxious about possible complications. The days passed miserably, she says, as she suffered through nausea, extreme fatigue, abdominal pain and backaches. After a few days, she started to run a fever. . . .
. . . During her first miscarriage years ago, Petranek ended up in the E.R. Doctors gave her a dilation and curettage, or D&C, a procedure to stop the bleeding – the same procedure that's used for many abortions.
... NPR reported on two cases [in Texas] in which women were refused treatment when their waters broke too early – one had to fly out of state for care, the other had to wait until she was showing more signs of infection. And a survey of health care providers by the Texas Policy Evaluation Project found that one hospital was no longer treating some ectopic pregnancies, even though they are never viable and can be life-threatening if left untreated.
MORE: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/12/09/npr-wisconsin-abortion-law-pregnancy-risk-miscarriage
. . . After 10 long months of trying, Petranek got pregnant in March 2022. The whole family was thrilled. But at her first prenatal appointment, her doctor couldn't find a heartbeat. It was an early miscarriage.
Devastated, she went home to wait for the miscarriage to resolve. It was the second time she'd miscarried, and she was anxious about possible complications. The days passed miserably, she says, as she suffered through nausea, extreme fatigue, abdominal pain and backaches. After a few days, she started to run a fever. . . .
. . . During her first miscarriage years ago, Petranek ended up in the E.R. Doctors gave her a dilation and curettage, or D&C, a procedure to stop the bleeding – the same procedure that's used for many abortions.
... NPR reported on two cases [in Texas] in which women were refused treatment when their waters broke too early – one had to fly out of state for care, the other had to wait until she was showing more signs of infection. And a survey of health care providers by the Texas Policy Evaluation Project found that one hospital was no longer treating some ectopic pregnancies, even though they are never viable and can be life-threatening if left untreated.
MORE: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/12/09/npr-wisconsin-abortion-law-pregnancy-risk-miscarriage
There's some 1849 anti-abortion law on the books in Wisconsin that was moot post-Roe and pre-Dobbs but is now the subject of litigation. (Edit: actually I don't know a thing about what went on pre-Roe in Wisconsin -- did the 1849 law apply back then? If not, why not?)
Anyway, when she heard about the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, and having heard of the 1849 Wisconsin law, she decided against trying to have any more children.
There are pro-natalists (8 billion is not enough!!) that are cheering Dobbs -- they might not realize it's a disincentive for some who want to have children.
===================================
Crossposted to Wisconsin Group as https://www.democraticunderground.com/108429173
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