progree
progree's JournalTIPS - Treasury Inflation Protection Bonds - how to figure out if a TIP is a good deal?
As we have heard time and time again from innumerable postings, I-Bonds are a great deal. But one is allowed only to buy $10,000 in a year (and an extra $5,000 if one applies their refund to buying them).
But since I've maxed out on my I-bond allotment, I've been looking at TIPs. I've always thought they sucked, e.g. whenever I see TIPs bond fund or ETF total returns (not just recently but pre-pandemic as well), they are pretty poor (this year they are negative for intermediate and long-term ones, because rising interest rates makes old bonds worth less).
So I will buy an individual bond and hold it until maturity.
First, I don't know how to buy a new one -- I have to wait for an auction date, and those are too far out in the future and I want to get my cash fund (a money market fund earning about 2.5%) invested ASAP in something higher.
Also, I want this for my Roth IRA for several reasons. I don't think I can have a Roth IRA at TreasuryDirect.
So I looked in the secondary market.
This Schwab article gives a very good explanation of the fundaments or TIPS.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/treasury-inflation-protected-securities-faqs-about-tips
But it doesn't explain how to know whether a particular deal available on the secondary market looks good.
I've done some mock purchase scenarios at Fidelity and Vanguard (where I do everything except click the final submit button), and I'm being asked to spend $19,975 for $10,000 face value of bonds on Friday 11/4/22 for this animal (of course these prices aren't good anymore, but for a snapshot in time):
CUSIP: 912810FD5 < - yes, it can be Googled
UNITED STATES TREAS BDS 3.62500% 04/15/2028 - it’s a 30 year TIPS bond
It was issued 4/15/98 (yes, last millennium) and matures 4/15/28 (5.4 years from now)
I don't know what happened in the early years in the bond's life, but for illustration, let's pretend inflation was 4% in the early years. Then the situation in the first 2 years looks like the first 5 lines of the table below.
Then after the ellipses (...) , the 10/15/22 and 11/4/22 information is from their data. The adjusted principal is the index ratio * 10,000.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/tips-cpi-data/
And what follows the ellipses is my spreadsheet projection of what the adjusted principal and interest payments would be if inflation continued at 4% for the remaining life of the bond.
The principal, which begins at $10,000, is adjusted upwards every 6 months according to the CPI-U. That's why it's called Adjusted Principal.
The final Adjusted Principal value, at the 4/15/28 maturity date, $22,724.41 is the amount one gets from the Treasury for it (remembering that the above table is assuming that inflation from here on is 4%). Plus one receives the final interest payment of $411.88.
One can't "cash out" earlier than the final maturity date. But one can sell it on the secondary market. What it will sell for should be close to the adjusted principal on that date. But the market is the market, and there is no guarantee what one will get for it on the secondary market.
The semi-annual interest payment is:
coupon rate / 2 * adjusted principal
I've shown a couple examples in the above table.
So the question is, is $19,975 plus accrued interest a good price to pay for the stream of interest payments shown 4/15/23 and after, plus getting $22,724.41 at final maturity?
There ought to be something "out there" on at least one of the interwebs that would answer that question:
Enter the CUSIP of the security: __912810FD5__
Enter the assumed inflation rate from here onward to maturity: __4.0%__
Answer: your calculated rate of return is 5.9% (or whatever)
Anyway, 5.9% was what I got in my first approximation of this from the spreadsheet. So yes, it’s a good deal because one canNOT find a regular Treasury note with a 5.9% rate that matures in 5.4 years or 5 years or 6 years.
However, if I assumed inflation going forward averaged 2%, my rate of return would be about 3.9%. That is less than the 4+% interest rate that 5 year and 10 year regular treasuries offer now. So if I believed inflation over the next 5.4 years will average 2% or less, I would get a regular treasury note instead of a TIP.
But there doesn't appear to be any such calculator or anything that makes it simpler than the egghead-with-a-spreadsheet approach.
One shouldn't have to construct a spreadsheet. And then because a purchase, like on 11/4/22 for example, falls in-between interest payment dates, one has to fool around with adjusting for my spreadsheet to handle that somehow. I can think of reasonable ways to do that, but it is a little messy.
I used Excel's IRR function (internal rate of return) to get an approximation, but that function requires that the transactions be equally spaced apart. So I have more work to do.
But darn it, I'm sure I'm not the only one that has this question when examining a prospective TIP.
Then the accrued interest thing - the concept is simple: The previous owner owned the bond for the 20 days since the 10/15/22 interest payment (20 days between 10/15/22 and 11/4/22), but I, the new owner, gets the next interest payment, due 4/15/23, in its entirety and the previous owner gets nothing.
So the accrued interest thing is something I pay for 20 days of interest to compensate the previous owner.
SOME SMALL DETAILS
I'm buying much more than $10,000, but I'm showing the above table in units of $10,000. A bond is actually $1,000 face value but one must buy a minimum of say 60 of those for a minimum purchase of $60,000.
Probably will add some more in this section, but can't think of anything to add right now.
From Schwab, 10/20/22:
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/treasury-inflation-protected-securities-faqs-about-tips
How can I compare TIPS to traditional Treasuries
Breakeven inflation rates. The breakeven rate is the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury and the yield of a TIPS with a similar maturity. For TIPS investors, the breakeven rate can be considered a hurdle rate—it's what inflation would need to average over the life of the TIPS for it to outperform the nominal Treasury.
Breakeven rates are well off their recent highs. At 2.5%, the five-year TIPS breakeven rate is well off its recent high of 3.7% hit the past March. If the CPI were to average more than 2.5% over the next five years, the five-year TIPS would outperform a five-year nominal Treasury. (Likewise, if inflation averaged less than 2.5%, the nominal Treasury would outperform.) TIPS breakeven rates are relatively low given the high current rate of inflation ((meaning that TIPS are a good deal relative to regular treasuries at this point in time -Progree))
The above is all very fine and wonderful and all that, and it gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling, but it doesn't tell me what the rate of return is of a particular TIP on the secondary market.
Thanks for any ideas
Inflation last 3 months: CPI just 2%, Real earnings up 2.6% (both are annual rates)
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendarJust to highlight a few bright spots on the inflation front.
In the last 3 months, the CPI has increased just 2.0% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate -- just like what Powell has been aiming for.
(Small print: though the Federal Reserve uses the PCE as its measure of inflation -- that's probably done even better -- well actually they aim for the CORE PCE to be 2% annualized, unfortunately the core inflation measures in the last 3 months, annualized, have been high though not as high as the year-over-year figures, but still multiples of 2% annual rates.
The core numbers are with food and energy stripped out. Since we all eat and consume energy, the regular inflation numbers are what matter as far as our budgets and living standards. The core is better for forecasting what is likely to happen with inflation in the future since zig-zaggy energy prices are very hard to project into the future)
(More small print: the good behavior of the CPI and the PCE -- which are the "everything" versions that include food and energy -- has been good only because of volatile energy prices having been on a downslide)
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Real (meaning inflation-adjusted) average earnings are UP 2.6% over the past 3 months on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Meaning wages and salaries grew considerably faster than inflation over the past 3 months.
(Small print: see comments on the CPI and PCE above. The CPI is used to inflation-adjust the average earnings)
But we don't have to tell any RW fuckheads or the so-called "independents" and the JackPineRadicals the small print part. Just tell them Biden has tamed inflation over the last 3 months - give them those numbers and the link -- and leave it at that.
The October CPI comes out November 10 (2 days after election day),
No economic reports of major interest are on the calendar for Monday or Tuesday, so no economic "October Surprises" due.
Election deniers in Minnesota are training some election judges, MPR
The email from the head of the “Olmsted County Election Integrity” group inviting Jim Anderson to an online training session for election judges looked official. Anderson had served as a judge before, and the email seemed like part of the normal process to prepare him for the 2022 election.
But as he joined the Zoom call, it was clear to him there was nothing normal about the training — and it definitely was not from Olmsted County, which is in charge of training election judges. “They said, well, ‘You know our real president isn’t in office,’” he recalled. “That’s about the time I hit ‘end.’”
Another email from Olmsted County Election Integrity arrived about a week later, this time urging Anderson to rename his smartphone to masquerade as the Wi-Fi network of the polling place where he’d be stationed on Election Day.
The goal, it said, was to capture data being sent over that network and expose an imagined security vulnerability.
The emailer also asked him to photograph vote counting machines and various documents and forward it all to the group’s leader.....
More fun at: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/11/04/election-deniers-in-minnesota-are-training-some-election-judges
Dozens of people who’ve raised doubts about elections to Minnesota County boards over the last year appear on rosters of election judges compiled by APM Reports,
Olmsted County Election Integrity is part of a widespread effort across the country by people who doubt the legitimacy of the 2020 elections and who’ve pushed hard in this election cycle to recruit and install poll workers who share their beliefs.
Is the U of Minnesota at Morris too diverse for a student to attend? (R) Regent wants to know
During a University of Minnesota Board of Regents meeting last Thursday, Board of Regents Vice-Chair, Steve Sviggum, asked the interim-chancellor at the University of Minnesota-Morris if declining enrollment might be connected to “too much diversity” at the campus which is about two-and-a-half hours west of the metro area.
Sviggum asked Morris Interim Chancellor, Janet Schrunk Ericksen, “Is it possible that at Morris we’ve become too diverse? Is that at all possible from a marketing standpoint?”
Sviggum noted that enrollment at Morris had declined by more than 40 percent “over the past decade” and that was why he asked the question.
“I have received a couple letters, two actually, from friends whose children are not going to go to Morris, because it is too diverse of a campus. They just didn’t feel comfortable there,” said Sviggum. “Is it all possible, in the specifics of Morris, that we’ve become too diverse for a student to attend? Again, I am on thin ice. I understand that. At 71 or 72 years old I say things that I would never even thought when I was 52.”
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/u-of-m-board-of-regents-vice-chair-asks-if-too-much-diversity-leads-to-declining-enrollment-at-morris-campus/
Sviggum(R) is a former Speaker of the Minnesota House
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sviggum
Too diverse for a student to attend? Apparently he doesn't consider the "diverse" students who are there to be actually students? They are crisis actors? Or they are there just because of woke quotas and are getting a free four years but they aren't REALLY students, or what is his thinking?
Cross posted in the Minnesota Group https://www.democraticunderground.com/105911971
GOP looks for veto-proof majorities in Wisconsin Legislature, AP
Wisconsin Republicans are hoping Tim Michels will defeat Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in November, but even if Evers prevails they could still reshape the battleground state by winning enough seats in the Legislature to override vetoes.
If Republicans can flip five seats in the Assembly and one in the Senate they'll have the two-thirds majority they need. They would be free to rework state politics at will, including the state budget and election administration.
Evers has blocked almost every piece of major GOP legislation over the last four years, including proposals that would have tightened restrictions on absentee voting and unemployment benefits, expanded the right to carry concealed weapons and curtailed the government's ability to respond to COVID-19.
The U.S. Supreme Court this spring upheld district lines Republicans redrew last year to reflect census changes, a major ruling that solidified their grip on both houses for the next decade.
MORE: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/10/09/gop-looks-for-vetoproof-majorities-in-wisconsin-legislature
It's a very long article that talks about a lot of the more contested seats. A common thread is that redrawn district boundaries make a number of Democrat-held seats more dubious this time around.
It's sad to see a state that went for Biden be on the verge of 2/3 R majorities in both legislative chambers. Shows the power of gerrymandering district boundaries. Albeit the Biden win margin was a fraction of a percent.
Ughh, Barnes (D) was neck-and-neck a few days ago (U.S. Senate, WI, running against Ron Johnson)
Barnes was neck and neck a few days ago in 538, but now it is 56-44 in simulations favoring Johnson, 3 most recent polls are for Johnson, 9/18 920 AM ET visit,
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/wisconsin/
Edit: I'm no 538 methodology expert, but this isn't the same as the odds of winning ... the most recent polls (all favoring Johnson unfortunately) are Johnson +4, Johnson +1, Johnson +1. Following a string of polls favoring Barnes ( +2, +7, +4, +2)
========================================
538 Still shows this the closest of the Senate races.
Scroll half way down the page to the table
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo
There's a DU link to contribute: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforbarnes22
Migrants were promised jobs, free housing before being taken to Martha's Vineyard
Source: USA Today via MSN
MARTHA'S VINEYARD - The migrants were approached as they crossed the street to go to McDonald's. Many got their first taste of the United States while staying at a shelter in San Antonio.
An unidentified man and woman walked up to them and offered what sounded too good to be true: well-paying jobs, free housing, transportation. As an added incentive, the migrants were handed $50 gift cards.
The offer was, in fact, too good to be true. By day's end, they had all been flown to Martha's Vineyard, an island off Massachusetts' coast unfamiliar to the migrants. They were abandoned with no jobs, no housing, no explanation.
(snip)
Outside the San Antonio center, they were given the offer of jobs and free housing and the $50 gift cards, he said. They were handed red folders with what proved to be fake documents promising jobs and housing, then flown to Martha's Vineyard in private charter planes, stopping at least once along the way, Garcia said.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/migrants-were-promised-jobs-free-housing-before-being-taken-to-martha-s-vineyard/ar-AA11V9PT
Through July of this fiscal year, 128,556 Venezuelans have been encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border, a steep increase from last year's total of 48,678 and just 2,787 in 2020. (The article featured a group of Venezuelan men).
Yet another new ethical low point.
No paywall in this MSN-hosted article.
As midterms approach, election deniers are hampering some election preparations,
ABC News, August 30, 2022
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-midterms-approach-election-deniers-are-hampering-some-election-preparations/ar-AA11gAdF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0eb0076e1e9de1492453d6d613a1b11d
Various excerpts:
In Colorado, supporters of Donald Trump seeking evidence of 2020 election fraud have flooded some county offices with so many records requests that officials say they have been unable to perform their primary duties. ((That's happening all across the country, in huge quantities, according to the article, but I've run out of excerpts -Progree))
In Nevada, some election workers have been followed to their cars and harassed with threats.
And in Philadelphia, concerns about the potential for violence around Election Day have prompted officials to install bulletproof glass at their ballot-processing center.
MORE: False accusations of election fraud prompt some election workers across the US to quit ahead of Election Day
With ten weeks to go until the 2022 midterms, dozens of state and local officials across the country tell ABC News that preparations for the election are being hampered by onerous public information requests, ongoing threats against election workers, and dangerous misinformation campaigns being waged by activists still intent on contesting the 2020 presidential election.
The efforts, many of which are being coordinated at both the national and local level, range from confronting election officials at local government meetings to training volunteers to challenge the vote-counting process on Election Day, according to election officials.
At the "Moment of Truth Summit," a two-day meeting of election deniers hosted by MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell last week in Springfield, Missouri, activists instructed attendees on how to request election-related records, and pointed them to templates to make it easier to submit the forms.
,,, Askin has had to report several death threats to the FBI, and she said the vitriol she's receiving from election denial groups is becoming the new normal.'
A very depressing article. I hate to post it, but feel that I should.
An economic perfect storm is battering emerging markets. Debt crises loom
NPR, September 2, 2022
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/09/02/npr-global-economy-emerging-markets-inflation-debt
Various excerpts:
The U.S. dollar strengthened to a 20-year high against a collection of foreign currencies this week, spelling more trouble for heavily indebted smaller nations around the world. The stronger dollar makes payments on loans owed in U.S. currency more expensive. This comes as some lower-income countries face mounting economic problems and others — including Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Zambia — have already defaulted on their international debts.
Last week, Argentina slapped sweeping new restrictions on imports of everything from whiskey to software to consulting services to try to contain inflation that's running at over 70 percent. The South American nation has been hemorrhaging foreign currency and the strengthening U.S. dollar threatens to make that worse. In July, the value of the Argentine peso fell to a record low against the dollar on the black market.
"If you look at the history of emerging markets from the Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s, the Mexican peso crisis in 1994, to the different Argentine defaults, to the Brazilian crisis in the early 2000," Balcells ticks through a list of the most recent emerging market meltdowns, including the Asian financial crisis in the late '90s. "All of those periods always coincide with periods of interest rate hikes in the U.S."
Not only do poorer countries have larger debts in U.S. currency, now they are having to pay even more for imports bought in dollars as the currency strengthens. And this time around, global prices for fuel and food were already surging, due to currency fluctuations and significant supply shortfalls caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Bloomberg: the number of emerging market borrowers that have debt trading at distressed levels has doubled over the last six months.
"the worst food security crisis any of us have ever seen," ... food makes up about 40% of consumer purchases in sub-Saharan Africa, so an increase in food prices weighs very heavily.
Countries mentioned: Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Argentina, Lebanon, Pakistan, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia,
2021 saw record-high greenhouse gases, sea levels and ocean heat, new report shows
Source: ABC News via MSN
Last year saw record levels of major greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, released into the Earth's atmosphere, according to an international climate report. The annual State of the Climate report, published Wednesday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and led by scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, also found that global sea level and ocean heat reached record highs in 2021.
. . . In 2021, the global annual average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was 414.7 parts per million (ppm) -- 2.3 ppm greater than the amounts measured in 2020, according to the latest State of the Climate report. That marks the highest amount measured since 1958 -- the start of the instrumental record -- and in at least the last million years, based on paleoclimatic records, the report found. It was also the fifth-highest growth rate in the modern record.
Two other major greenhouse gases -- methane and nitrous oxide -- also saw record concentrations last year, according to the report. The annual increase in methane was the highest in the modern record, and the growth rate of nitrous oxide the third-highest, it found.
. . . Last year was the fifth- or sixth-warmest on record, depending on the dataset referenced, with the last seven years (2015-2021) the seven warmest years on record, according to the report.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/2021-saw-record-high-greenhouse-gases-sea-levels-and-ocean-heat-new-report-shows/ar-AA11kk6Z
Hmmm, the 7 warmest years on record occurred in the last 7 years.
Global average ocean temperature down to more than 6,000 feet also set a record, even though La Nina cooled the surface.
The climate report, now in its 32nd issuance, is based on contributions from more than 530 scientists in over 60 countries.
What's sad is that none of this is surprising.
Happy September First Day
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