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progree
progree's Journal
progree's Journal
December 26, 2022
All emphasis mine. I was going through some news notes from August when it first got a no vote on its property tax millage. I wondered what the situation was currently. Unfortunately, this is what I found from a Google search.
Michigan residents vote to defund public library again over LGBTQ books (from Nov. 11)
The Hill, November 11, 2022
Residents of a Western Michigan town on Tuesday voted for a second time to defund their only public library, putting it in jeopardy of closing permanently and closing out the latest chapter in a months-long battle between the library and community members outraged over books centered around LGBTQ issues and identities.
Nearly 56 percent of voters in Jamestown Township, Mich., rejected a proposal to renew a property tax that accounts for more than 80 percent of the annual operating budget for the Patmos Library, according to county election results.
On Thursday, the library wrote on its Facebook page that its hours of operation would be reduced for a number of days, citing staff shortages. ...
The library, which has received hundreds of thousands of dollars in online donations since it was first defunded in August, is likely to run out of money by early 2024, according to Walton.
More: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3731380-michigan-residents-vote-to-defund-public-library-again-over-lgbtq-books/
Residents of a Western Michigan town on Tuesday voted for a second time to defund their only public library, putting it in jeopardy of closing permanently and closing out the latest chapter in a months-long battle between the library and community members outraged over books centered around LGBTQ issues and identities.
Nearly 56 percent of voters in Jamestown Township, Mich., rejected a proposal to renew a property tax that accounts for more than 80 percent of the annual operating budget for the Patmos Library, according to county election results.
On Thursday, the library wrote on its Facebook page that its hours of operation would be reduced for a number of days, citing staff shortages. ...
The library, which has received hundreds of thousands of dollars in online donations since it was first defunded in August, is likely to run out of money by early 2024, according to Walton.
More: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3731380-michigan-residents-vote-to-defund-public-library-again-over-lgbtq-books/
All emphasis mine. I was going through some news notes from August when it first got a no vote on its property tax millage. I wondered what the situation was currently. Unfortunately, this is what I found from a Google search.
December 23, 2022
PCE inflation indexes from the source. Last 5 month ANNUALIZED: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 12 months ANNUALIZED: PCE: +5.5%, CORE PCE: +4.7%
Last 5 month ANNUALIZED: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 2 months ANNUALIZED: PCE: +2.90%, CORE PCE: +2.61%
I put this in the CPI and PPI and PCE Megapost, 12/23/22
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143007428#post2
BEA report on incomes, outlays and PCE inflation:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022
PCE Inflation
MONTHLY CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
-0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 PCE
0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 Core PCE
12 MONTH CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.5 PCE
4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 CORE PCE
Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=2015&series=m&first_year=2020&last_year=2022&scale=-99&categories=underlying&thetable=#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJuaXBhX3RhYmxlX2xpc3QiLCIyMDEzIl0sWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il1dfQ==
. . . . . . . JAN FEB MAR ... NOV
. . . . . PCE 119.469 120.178 121.321 121.563 122.300 123.512 123.397 123.728 124.154 124.617 124.747
CORE PCE 120.761 121.205 121.651 122.030 122.488 123.258 123.352 124.031 124.607 124.933 125.143
PCE 5 months annualized: (124.747/123.512)^(12/5)-1 = .0242 = 2.42%
CORE PCE 5 months annualized: (125.143/123.258)^(12/5)-1 = .0371 = 3.71%
PCE 2 months annualized: (124.747/124.154)^(12/2)-1 = .0290 = 2.90%
CORE PCE 2 months annualized: (125.143/124.607)^(12/2)-1 = .0261 = 2.61%
December 16, 2022
I've been yammering in post after post here that it is completely and thoroughly idiotic, stupid, and asinine for the media to report only on the last month's number and the 12 months number (i.e. year-over-year). And to call the 12 month number the inflation rate when so much of it is ancient history. So I'm tickled ecstatic and I am tickled pink that somebody other than some message board rando like me thinks this too.
For example by emphasizing the last 5 months, which are far less dire than the 12 month numbers: "Today's report: Last 5 months, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%". (The 12 months numbers are 7.1% and 6.0% respectively).
Edited to add: Last 5 months ANNUALIZED: PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
I also put it with My latest CPI megapost that gets into shelter and rentals
Albeit there's been an increasing trend in the PPI in the last 4 months, though not so much in the CORE PPI though the last month came in at 0.3 (roughly 3.6% annualized)
Edited to add: Since the producer price index has come up, here is the same thing for the PPI for convenience of reference
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
Jeremy Siegel: we need to get out of this yoy look at inflation ... 11 months of outdated data
Siegel: "We need to get out of this year-over-year look at inflation. Remember, when we get year-over-year, we're getting 11 months of old, outdated data, and only 1 month of new data, and in fact that 1 month contains data that [Powell] admits, particularly in the housing sector, is extremely lagged,"
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says he's disappointed in the Fed's hypocrisy on inflation, and that Jerome Powell will be cutting interest rates next year, Markets Insider, 12/15/22
* Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel is not happy with the Fed's hawkishness that was telegraphed at Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
* Siegel said the Fed is contradicting itself as it focuses on crushing wages that are spiking due to supply side issues.
* Siegel ultimately expects that the Fed will be cutting interest rates in 2023, not raising them.
Specifically, Siegel called out the fact that when inflation was rising after the COVID-19 pandemic due to supply-side issues, Fed chairman Jerome Powell insisted that inflation was transitory and did not act against it via interest rate hikes.
But now Powell is doing the exact opposite when it comes to structural supply-side issues that are plaguing the labor market.
"Now he's saying there's supply-side problems in the labor market that may raise wages, and we have to crush the wages in order to stop inflation. That's just totally inconsistent as a part of monetary policy," Siegel told CNBC on Thursday. "The Fed is not supposed to act on structural shifts on supply-side problems."
"I was very disappointed in Powell in his reasoning and his justifications for this overly tight policy. He acknowledged that the housing data is lagged, that housing prices are actually going down, but we're not going to see it until the middle of next year. So we're going to wait until the middle of next year before we decide whether we need to pause the rate hikes, even though we know it today?" Siegel said.
MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-says-he-s-disappointed-in-the-fed-s-hypocrisy-on-inflation-and-that-jerome-powell-will-be-cutting-interest-rates-next-year/ar-AA15jPTt
* Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel is not happy with the Fed's hawkishness that was telegraphed at Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
* Siegel said the Fed is contradicting itself as it focuses on crushing wages that are spiking due to supply side issues.
* Siegel ultimately expects that the Fed will be cutting interest rates in 2023, not raising them.
Specifically, Siegel called out the fact that when inflation was rising after the COVID-19 pandemic due to supply-side issues, Fed chairman Jerome Powell insisted that inflation was transitory and did not act against it via interest rate hikes.
But now Powell is doing the exact opposite when it comes to structural supply-side issues that are plaguing the labor market.
"Now he's saying there's supply-side problems in the labor market that may raise wages, and we have to crush the wages in order to stop inflation. That's just totally inconsistent as a part of monetary policy," Siegel told CNBC on Thursday. "The Fed is not supposed to act on structural shifts on supply-side problems."
"I was very disappointed in Powell in his reasoning and his justifications for this overly tight policy. He acknowledged that the housing data is lagged, that housing prices are actually going down, but we're not going to see it until the middle of next year. So we're going to wait until the middle of next year before we decide whether we need to pause the rate hikes, even though we know it today?" Siegel said.
MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-says-he-s-disappointed-in-the-fed-s-hypocrisy-on-inflation-and-that-jerome-powell-will-be-cutting-interest-rates-next-year/ar-AA15jPTt
I've been yammering in post after post here that it is completely and thoroughly idiotic, stupid, and asinine for the media to report only on the last month's number and the 12 months number (i.e. year-over-year). And to call the 12 month number the inflation rate when so much of it is ancient history. So I'm tickled ecstatic and I am tickled pink that somebody other than some message board rando like me thinks this too.
For example by emphasizing the last 5 months, which are far less dire than the 12 month numbers: "Today's report: Last 5 months, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%". (The 12 months numbers are 7.1% and 6.0% respectively).
Edited to add: Last 5 months ANNUALIZED: PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
I also put it with My latest CPI megapost that gets into shelter and rentals
Albeit there's been an increasing trend in the PPI in the last 4 months, though not so much in the CORE PPI though the last month came in at 0.3 (roughly 3.6% annualized)
Edited to add: Since the producer price index has come up, here is the same thing for the PPI for convenience of reference
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
December 14, 2022
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
Last 5 months thru November, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
CPI Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 (12mo change)
CPI 5 months annualized thru November: (298349/295328)^(12/5)-1 = .0247 = 2.47%
CORE CPI 5 months annualized thru November (300066/294354)^(12/5)-1 = .0472 = 4.72%
And I found this. Watch from 0:40 to 1:50:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/jeremy-siegel-if-fed-stopped-looking-at-stale-housing-data-they-d-realize-inflation-is-over/vi-AA15exZ9
Title: Jeremy Siegel: If Fed stopped looking at stale housing data they'd realize inflation is over.
from video, my notes, not an exact transcript:
The shelter number in the CPI report is: November: +0.6%, 12 months: +7.1%
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
He doesn't say what's wrong with the CPI's housing data (called Shelter in the CPI reports I've seen). About all I "know" is that they use actual rental data and "owner's equivalent rent" where they ask the owners what they think they could rent it for. They don't use house prices at all -- they consider that an investment, not a consumer expenditure.
There's also articles that explain that rents are "sticky", i.e. a contract is signed for 12 months, so for any month, only 1/12 of them are new rentals or renewals -- these new or renewing rentals are going down. But because the other months stay where they are, the change in one or two months have little effect on the overall average. In any rolling average, what drops out the tail end is just as important as the new incoming numbers.
This doesn't explain a 0.6% increase just in November though.
CPI up 15.7% over past 3 years (5.0%/year). Past 2 years: up 14.4% (7.0%/year) (thru November 2022)
Past 1 year: up 7.1% (7.1%/year)
The per year number for the past 3 years (5.0%/year) is a little less than simply dividing the 15.7% by 3, because of compounding.
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
November CPI index numbers:
2019 2020 2021 2022
257.788 260.721 278.524 298.349
3 year change: (298.349/257.788) - 1 = 0.157 = 15.7%
Annualized: (298.349/257.788)^(1/3) - 1 = .050 = 5.0%
Similarly for the 2 year changes.
So basically we've had a 1.1% year (Nov'20/Nov'19) followed by a a 6.8% year (Nov'21/Nov'20) followed by a 7.1% year (Nov'22/Nov'21).
==== PRODUCER PRICE INDEX =================
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted thru November
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy thru November -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (140.975/140.361)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0105 = 1.05%
CORE PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (138.714/137.849)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0151 = 1.51% (less food & energy)
==== PCE PRICE INDEX (Fed's favorite) =================
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022
Last 12 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +5.5%, CORE PCE: +4.7%
Last 5 month ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 2 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.90%, CORE PCE: +2.61%
MONTHLY CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
-0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 PCE
0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 Core PCE
12 MONTH CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.5 PCE
4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 CORE PCE
Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=2015&series=m&first_year=2020&last_year=2022&scale=-99&categories=underlying&thetable=#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJuaXBhX3RhYmxlX2xpc3QiLCIyMDEzIl0sWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il1dfQ==
. . . . . . . JAN FEB MAR ... NOV
. . . . . PCE 119.469 120.178 121.321 121.563 122.300 123.512 123.397 123.728 124.154 124.617 124.747
CORE PCE 120.761 121.205 121.651 122.030 122.488 123.258 123.352 124.031 124.607 124.933 125.143
PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (124.747/123.512)^(12/5)-1 = .0242 = 2.42%
CORE PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (125.143/123.258)^(12/5)-1 = .0371 = 3.71%
PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (124.747/124.154)^(12/2)-1 = .0290 = 2.90%
CORE PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (125.143/124.607)^(12/2)-1 = .0261 = 2.61%
===================================================
Edited to Add: CPI For December from 1/12/23 report
CPI report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
Click on "More Formatting Options" near the top right, and check the checkboxes to show other periods like original, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and then click the "Retrieve Data" button
CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349 298.112
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 6.4 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066 300.974
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 5.7 (12mo change)
CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (298112/295328)^(12/6)-1 = .018942 = 1.89%
CORE CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (300974/294354)^(12/6)-1 = .045486 = 4.55%
Inflation Megapost updated 1/12/23 for Dec CPI numbers, also PPI and PCE thru Nov 😊
ETA: SUMMARY of LATEST 5 months ANNUALIZED through November as of 1/11/23
CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
PCE: 2.42%, CORE PCE: 3.71%
Update: December CPI report updated 1/12/23
Latest 6 (six) months ANNUALIZED
CPI: 1.89%, CORE CPI: 4.55%
Latest 3 (three) months ANNUALIZED thru December
CPI: 1.83%, CORE CPI: 3.14%
See bottom of post for details on the CPI released 1/12/23
For CPI and PCE, CORE means all items less food and energy
For PPI (producer price index), there seems to be two different definitions of Core. I chose the "less food and energy" one for consistency. The other, that the BLS highlights, is less food, energy, and trade services
CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
PPI: 1.05%, CORE PPI: 1.51%
PCE: 2.42%, CORE PCE: 3.71%
Update: December CPI report updated 1/12/23
Latest 6 (six) months ANNUALIZED
CPI: 1.89%, CORE CPI: 4.55%
Latest 3 (three) months ANNUALIZED thru December
CPI: 1.83%, CORE CPI: 3.14%
See bottom of post for details on the CPI released 1/12/23
For CPI and PCE, CORE means all items less food and energy
For PPI (producer price index), there seems to be two different definitions of Core. I chose the "less food and energy" one for consistency. The other, that the BLS highlights, is less food, energy, and trade services
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
###### CPI, PPI, PCE Thru November ########
Last 5 months thru November, ANNUALIZED: CPI: 2.47%, CORE CPI: 4.72%
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
CPI Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru November:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Nov
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 (12mo change)
CPI 5 months annualized thru November: (298349/295328)^(12/5)-1 = .0247 = 2.47%
CORE CPI 5 months annualized thru November (300066/294354)^(12/5)-1 = .0472 = 4.72%
And I found this. Watch from 0:40 to 1:50:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/jeremy-siegel-if-fed-stopped-looking-at-stale-housing-data-they-d-realize-inflation-is-over/vi-AA15exZ9
Title: Jeremy Siegel: If Fed stopped looking at stale housing data they'd realize inflation is over.
from video, my notes, not an exact transcript:
housing in the CPI report: +0.6%, is nonsense. Any rental index, any housing index, case shiller, Zillow - they are all going down. Housing is almost 40% of core inflation. Core inflation (with proper housing data) has been negative for the last 2 months
The shelter number in the CPI report is: November: +0.6%, 12 months: +7.1%
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
He doesn't say what's wrong with the CPI's housing data (called Shelter in the CPI reports I've seen). About all I "know" is that they use actual rental data and "owner's equivalent rent" where they ask the owners what they think they could rent it for. They don't use house prices at all -- they consider that an investment, not a consumer expenditure.
There's also articles that explain that rents are "sticky", i.e. a contract is signed for 12 months, so for any month, only 1/12 of them are new rentals or renewals -- these new or renewing rentals are going down. But because the other months stay where they are, the change in one or two months have little effect on the overall average. In any rolling average, what drops out the tail end is just as important as the new incoming numbers.
This doesn't explain a 0.6% increase just in November though.
CPI up 15.7% over past 3 years (5.0%/year). Past 2 years: up 14.4% (7.0%/year) (thru November 2022)
Past 1 year: up 7.1% (7.1%/year)
The per year number for the past 3 years (5.0%/year) is a little less than simply dividing the 15.7% by 3, because of compounding.
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
November CPI index numbers:
2019 2020 2021 2022
257.788 260.721 278.524 298.349
3 year change: (298.349/257.788) - 1 = 0.157 = 15.7%
Annualized: (298.349/257.788)^(1/3) - 1 = .050 = 5.0%
Similarly for the 2 year changes.
So basically we've had a 1.1% year (Nov'20/Nov'19) followed by a a 6.8% year (Nov'21/Nov'20) followed by a 7.1% year (Nov'22/Nov'21).
==== PRODUCER PRICE INDEX =================
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted thru November
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 133.538 134.957 137.241 137.954 139.072 140.361 139.796 139.748 140.119 140.558 140.975 (index)
2022 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.7 2.8 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 (3 month)
2022 10.2 10.5 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.1 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy thru November -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413
YEAR JAN FEB ... NOV
2022 132.218 133.285 134.742 136.238 137.209 137.849 138.022 138.308 138.329 138.280 138.714
2022 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 (1 month)
2022 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 (3 months)
2022 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.2 (12 months)
The last 4 months are preliminary
PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (140.975/140.361)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0105 = 1.05%
CORE PPI: Last 5 months thru November: (138.714/137.849)^(12/5)-1 = 0.0151 = 1.51% (less food & energy)
==== PCE PRICE INDEX (Fed's favorite) =================
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022
Last 12 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +5.5%, CORE PCE: +4.7%
Last 5 month ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.42%, CORE PCE: +3.71%
Last 2 months ANNUALIZED thru November: PCE: +2.90%, CORE PCE: +2.61%
MONTHLY CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
-0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 PCE
0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 Core PCE
12 MONTH CHANGES, %
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.5 PCE
4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 CORE PCE
Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=2015&series=m&first_year=2020&last_year=2022&scale=-99&categories=underlying&thetable=#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJuaXBhX3RhYmxlX2xpc3QiLCIyMDEzIl0sWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il1dfQ==
. . . . . . . JAN FEB MAR ... NOV
. . . . . PCE 119.469 120.178 121.321 121.563 122.300 123.512 123.397 123.728 124.154 124.617 124.747
CORE PCE 120.761 121.205 121.651 122.030 122.488 123.258 123.352 124.031 124.607 124.933 125.143
PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (124.747/123.512)^(12/5)-1 = .0242 = 2.42%
CORE PCE 5 months annualized thru November: (125.143/123.258)^(12/5)-1 = .0371 = 3.71%
PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (124.747/124.154)^(12/2)-1 = .0290 = 2.90%
CORE PCE 2 months annualized thru November: (125.143/124.607)^(12/2)-1 = .0261 = 2.61%
===================================================
Edited to Add: CPI For December from 1/12/23 report
CPI report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
Click on "More Formatting Options" near the top right, and check the checkboxes to show other periods like original, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and then click the "Retrieve Data" button
CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 281.933 284.182 287.708 288.663 291.474 295.328 295.271 295.620 296.761 298.062 298.349 298.112
2022 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 (1mo change)
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 (3mo change)
2022 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 6.4 (12 mo change)
CORE CPI thru December:
YEAR Jan Feb Mar ... Dec
2022 286.431 287.878 288.811 290.455 292.289 294.354 295.275 296.950 298.660 299.471 300.066 300.974
2022 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 (1mo change)
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 (3mo change)
2022 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.0 5.7 (12mo change)
CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (298112/295328)^(12/6)-1 = .018942 = 1.89%
CORE CPI 6 months annualized thru December: (300974/294354)^(12/6)-1 = .045486 = 4.55%
December 11, 2022
And all the air quality and breathing issues, especially when a large fire breaks out ..
A trash heap 62 meters high shows the scale of India's climate challenge
(203 feet, 20 stories, about as tall as the Taj Mahal)
various excerpts --
A trash heap 62 meters high shows the scale of India's climate challenge, CNN, 12/11/22
At the Bhalswa landfill in northwest Delhi, a steady flow of jeeps zigzag up the trash heap to dump more garbage on a pile now over 62 meters (203 feet) high. Fires caused by heat and methane gas sporadically break out – the Delhi Fire Service Department has responded to 14 fires so far this year – and some deep beneath the pile can smolder for weeks or months, while men, women and children work nearby, sifting through the rubbish to find items to sell.
Some of the 200,000 residents who live in Bhalswa say the area is uninhabitable, but they can’t afford to move and have no choice but to breathe the toxic air and bathe in its contaminated water.
[the Global Methane Pledge] India says it won’t join because most of its methane emissions come from farming – some 74% from farm animals and paddy fields versus less than 15% from landfill.
“If sustained for a year, the methane leak from this landfill would have the same climate impact as annual emissions from 350,000 US cars,” said GHGSat CEO Stephane Germain.
[the water in the area] “This water is not only unfit for drinking but also unfit for skin contact,” she said. “So it can’t be used for purposes like bathing or cleaning of the utensils or cleaning of the clothes.” Most people in Bhalswa rely on bottled water for drinking, but they use local water for other purposes – many say they have no choice.
More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-trash-heap-62-meters-high-shows-the-scale-of-india-s-climate-challenge/ar-AA158IAP
At the Bhalswa landfill in northwest Delhi, a steady flow of jeeps zigzag up the trash heap to dump more garbage on a pile now over 62 meters (203 feet) high. Fires caused by heat and methane gas sporadically break out – the Delhi Fire Service Department has responded to 14 fires so far this year – and some deep beneath the pile can smolder for weeks or months, while men, women and children work nearby, sifting through the rubbish to find items to sell.
Some of the 200,000 residents who live in Bhalswa say the area is uninhabitable, but they can’t afford to move and have no choice but to breathe the toxic air and bathe in its contaminated water.
[the Global Methane Pledge] India says it won’t join because most of its methane emissions come from farming – some 74% from farm animals and paddy fields versus less than 15% from landfill.
“If sustained for a year, the methane leak from this landfill would have the same climate impact as annual emissions from 350,000 US cars,” said GHGSat CEO Stephane Germain.
[the water in the area] “This water is not only unfit for drinking but also unfit for skin contact,” she said. “So it can’t be used for purposes like bathing or cleaning of the utensils or cleaning of the clothes.” Most people in Bhalswa rely on bottled water for drinking, but they use local water for other purposes – many say they have no choice.
More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-trash-heap-62-meters-high-shows-the-scale-of-india-s-climate-challenge/ar-AA158IAP
And all the air quality and breathing issues, especially when a large fire breaks out ..
December 10, 2022
There's some 1849 anti-abortion law on the books in Wisconsin that was moot post-Roe and pre-Dobbs but is now the subject of litigation. (Edit: actually I don't know a thing about what went on pre-Roe in Wisconsin -- did the 1849 law apply back then? If not, why not?)
Anyway, when she heard about the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, and having heard of the 1849 Wisconsin law, she decided against trying to have any more children.
There are pro-natalists (8 billion is not enough!!) that are cheering Dobbs -- they might not realize it's a disincentive for some who want to have children.
===================================
Crossposted to Wisconsin Group as https://www.democraticunderground.com/108429173
Because of Wisconsin's abortion ban, one mother gave up trying for another child
Because of Wisconsin's abortion ban, one mother gave up trying for another child, NPR, 12/9/22
. . . After 10 long months of trying, Petranek got pregnant in March 2022. The whole family was thrilled. But at her first prenatal appointment, her doctor couldn't find a heartbeat. It was an early miscarriage.
Devastated, she went home to wait for the miscarriage to resolve. It was the second time she'd miscarried, and she was anxious about possible complications. The days passed miserably, she says, as she suffered through nausea, extreme fatigue, abdominal pain and backaches. After a few days, she started to run a fever. . . .
. . . During her first miscarriage years ago, Petranek ended up in the E.R. Doctors gave her a dilation and curettage, or D&C, a procedure to stop the bleeding – the same procedure that's used for many abortions.
... NPR reported on two cases [in Texas] in which women were refused treatment when their waters broke too early – one had to fly out of state for care, the other had to wait until she was showing more signs of infection. And a survey of health care providers by the Texas Policy Evaluation Project found that one hospital was no longer treating some ectopic pregnancies, even though they are never viable and can be life-threatening if left untreated.
MORE: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/12/09/npr-wisconsin-abortion-law-pregnancy-risk-miscarriage
. . . After 10 long months of trying, Petranek got pregnant in March 2022. The whole family was thrilled. But at her first prenatal appointment, her doctor couldn't find a heartbeat. It was an early miscarriage.
Devastated, she went home to wait for the miscarriage to resolve. It was the second time she'd miscarried, and she was anxious about possible complications. The days passed miserably, she says, as she suffered through nausea, extreme fatigue, abdominal pain and backaches. After a few days, she started to run a fever. . . .
. . . During her first miscarriage years ago, Petranek ended up in the E.R. Doctors gave her a dilation and curettage, or D&C, a procedure to stop the bleeding – the same procedure that's used for many abortions.
... NPR reported on two cases [in Texas] in which women were refused treatment when their waters broke too early – one had to fly out of state for care, the other had to wait until she was showing more signs of infection. And a survey of health care providers by the Texas Policy Evaluation Project found that one hospital was no longer treating some ectopic pregnancies, even though they are never viable and can be life-threatening if left untreated.
MORE: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/12/09/npr-wisconsin-abortion-law-pregnancy-risk-miscarriage
There's some 1849 anti-abortion law on the books in Wisconsin that was moot post-Roe and pre-Dobbs but is now the subject of litigation. (Edit: actually I don't know a thing about what went on pre-Roe in Wisconsin -- did the 1849 law apply back then? If not, why not?)
Anyway, when she heard about the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, and having heard of the 1849 Wisconsin law, she decided against trying to have any more children.
There are pro-natalists (8 billion is not enough!!) that are cheering Dobbs -- they might not realize it's a disincentive for some who want to have children.
===================================
Crossposted to Wisconsin Group as https://www.democraticunderground.com/108429173
December 7, 2022
Crossposted to Mahatmakanejeeves' Electric Power Utility Substation Sabotage Megathread
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111694722
Physical Attacks on Power Substations in Multiple States--Report
Newsweek, 12/7/22
There have been physical attacks on power substations in multiple states in recent months, according to a new report.
. . . Now NewsNation has reported that a memo from federal law enforcement revealed similar attacks have taken place in other states.
"Power companies in Oregon and Washington have reported physical attacks on substations using hand tools, arson, firearms and metal chains possibly in response to an online call for attacks on critical infrastructure," the memo says in part.
"In recent attacks, criminal actors bypassed security by cutting the fence links, lighting nearby fires, shooting equipment from a distance or throwing objects over the fence and onto equipment."
. . . skipping a lot of specifics about attacks in several other states . . .
[One loon example -Progree] In February, three men pleaded guilty to planning to recruit followers to attack substations with powerful rifles.
"The defendants believed their plan would cost the government millions of dollars and cause unrest for Americans in the region," the Department of Justice said in a news release. "They had conversations about how the possibility of the power being out for many months could cause war, even a race war, and induce the next Great Depression."
. . . MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/physical-attacks-on-power-substations-in-multiple-states-report/ar-AA150rAD?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b813d600d3294428b14df88b590d73bc
. . . Now NewsNation has reported that a memo from federal law enforcement revealed similar attacks have taken place in other states.
"Power companies in Oregon and Washington have reported physical attacks on substations using hand tools, arson, firearms and metal chains possibly in response to an online call for attacks on critical infrastructure," the memo says in part.
"In recent attacks, criminal actors bypassed security by cutting the fence links, lighting nearby fires, shooting equipment from a distance or throwing objects over the fence and onto equipment."
. . . skipping a lot of specifics about attacks in several other states . . .
[One loon example -Progree] In February, three men pleaded guilty to planning to recruit followers to attack substations with powerful rifles.
"The defendants believed their plan would cost the government millions of dollars and cause unrest for Americans in the region," the Department of Justice said in a news release. "They had conversations about how the possibility of the power being out for many months could cause war, even a race war, and induce the next Great Depression."
. . . MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/physical-attacks-on-power-substations-in-multiple-states-report/ar-AA150rAD?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b813d600d3294428b14df88b590d73bc
Crossposted to Mahatmakanejeeves' Electric Power Utility Substation Sabotage Megathread
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111694722
December 1, 2022
It will both pump you up and make you cry.
OK, this is largely fictional. What is true is that he could barely hear anything at this point in time. He could hear some vibrations, but not enough to let him know where in the heck he was in this.
The fictional part is that someone filled in to conduct the conductor (AFAIK). I just haven't looked into this to see how he managed.
All's I remember reading T/F is that he kept conducting the piece after it was done, until someone let him know and turned him around to see the audience. Kind of dubious and no links
Credit Uncle Joe https://www.democraticunderground.com/10181607194
Copying Beethoven/cut HD (Beethoven 9th symphony, the best, most inspiring 13m)
It will both pump you up and make you cry.
OK, this is largely fictional. What is true is that he could barely hear anything at this point in time. He could hear some vibrations, but not enough to let him know where in the heck he was in this.
The fictional part is that someone filled in to conduct the conductor (AFAIK). I just haven't looked into this to see how he managed.
All's I remember reading T/F is that he kept conducting the piece after it was done, until someone let him know and turned him around to see the audience. Kind of dubious and no links
Credit Uncle Joe https://www.democraticunderground.com/10181607194
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