May 24, 2014

Russia toughens laws against separatists seeking self-determination inside Russia.

According to president Vladimir Putin, those in Crimea who voted to secede from Ukraine were simply exercising their right to self-determination, and the Kremlin continues to condemn Kiev's military operation against separatists in eastern Ukraine. But that hasn't stopped Russia's parliament from toughening punishments for separatist ideas in its own country.

New legislation introduced by Andrei Klishas, head of the Federation Council's committee on constitutional legislation, seeks to increase the maximum punishment from three to four years imprisonment for "public calls for actions violating the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation." The bill also adds lesser punishments including arrest for up to six months and compulsory work for up to three years.

A government crackdown on independent media has been accompanied by stricter regulations on the internet in recent months. Putin signed a controversial law earlier this month forcing popular bloggers to register with the government's internet watchdog.

Meanwhile, the government was discussing on Friday the creation of an "internet ombudsman" position, according to the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The newspaper reported that one of the candidates for the position was conservative MP Sergei Zheleznyak, who has authored a variety of moralistic legislation, as well as initiatives to increase the authorities' access to internet users' information.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/24/russia-toughens-punishment-separatist-ideas

What's good for the goose may not be good for the gander.

May 23, 2014

Krugman: The danger from the right in Sunday's European election

It’s hard to imagine war in today’s Europe, which has coalesced around democratic values and even taken its first steps toward political union. Indeed, as I write this, elections are being held all across Europe, not to choose national governments, but to select members of the European Parliament.

But here’s the thing: An alarmingly high fraction of the vote is expected to go to right-wing extremists hostile to the very values that made the election possible. Put it this way: Some of the biggest winners in Europe’s election will probably be people taking Vladimir Putin’s side in the Ukraine crisis.

The truth is that the European project — peace guaranteed by democracy and prosperity — is in deep trouble; the Continent still has peace, but it’s falling short on prosperity and, in a subtler way, democracy. And, if Europe stumbles, it will be a very bad thing not just for Europe itself but for the world as a whole.

Why is Europe in trouble?

The immediate problem is poor economic performance. The euro, Europe’s common currency, was supposed to be the culminating step in the Continent’s economic integration. Instead, it turned into a trap. First, it created a dangerous complacency, as investors funneled huge amounts of cash into southern Europe, heedless of risk. Then, when the boom turned to bust, debtor countries found themselves shackled, unable to regain lost competitiveness without years of Depression-level unemployment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/23/opinion/krugman-crisis-of-the-eurocrats.html

May 22, 2014

Germany sees ‘spectacular increase’ in immigrants (now 2nd to the US)

Migration into Germany rose more than a third in 2012, as the continent’s strongest economy took in an additional 400,000 people, mainly from central, eastern and southern Europe.

The data will add to the debate over the extent of immigration in Europe, with rightwing and populist parties across the continent likely to exploit unease among some Europeans about the issue to make big gains in this week’s European parliamentary elections.

The latest rise means Germany has overtaken Spain as the industrialised nation receiving the second largest number of migrants. The US remains the largest recipient of migrants, although the pace of increase there has flattened. Since 2007, the number of US immigrants has actually fallen 3 per cent.

Overall, the number of migrants across the 33 OECD members, which represent the largest economies, is a third higher since the pace of cross-border movement began to pick up in 2000. But it is still 14 per cent lower than in 2007, the year before the global recession set in.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4516602c-e025-11e3-b709-00144feabdc0.html#axzz32S8sfly7

Foreign-born are now about 13% of Germany's population, almost exactly the same percentage as the US.

34% of Germany's immigrants are "highly educated". In the US it is 21% and in Canada 31%.

May 20, 2014

Putin could be a winner in European parliamentary vote if far right gains ground

When voters across Europe go to the polls this week to elect a new parliament, far-right parties are expected to be among the winners. But one of the election’s biggest beneficiaries could be a man whose name isn’t on the ballot: Vladimir Putin.

Even as mainstream European leaders sputter their condemnation of Russian aggression, voters appear poised to reward parties that make no secret of their fawning admiration for the way the Russian leader has defied the West and dismembered Ukraine. And indeed, the Russian media has begun to do just that, highlighting far-right leaders as the legitimate representatives of Europe. Those leaders, in turn, have eagerly embraced their moment in the Russian spotlight.

As pro-Russian forces wreaked havoc in eastern Ukraine last month, the head of France’s far-right National Front was in Moscow telling reporters that “a Cold War on Russia has been declared in the European Union." Nigel Farage, leader of the U.K. Independence Party and a frequent guest on the pro-Kremlin television network RT, has cited Putin as the foreign leader he most admires and asserted on national television that the 28-member E.U. has “blood on its hands” for its handling of Ukraine.

While Europe’s far-right parties differ in many respects, they share a desire to weaken the influence of the Brussels-based E.U. and “to pursue a similarly nationalist and authoritarian line” to the one embraced by Putin, according to Hajo Funke, a German political analyst and expert on right-wing extremism. Indeed, in many respects, Putin is an ideological soul mate. He rails against Western decadence and liberalism and speaks in favor of an orthodox and conservative nationalism that rejects gay rights and commands adherence to traditional values.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-could-be-a-winner-in-european-parliamentary-vote-if-far-right-gains-ground/2014/05/18/4de276e9-9ee3-4366-9102-81e91e03f182_story.html

The love fest of Europe's far right for Putin continues.

May 14, 2014

On 2/20 parliament voted 236-2 to condemn the violence, ban the use of weapons against protesters,

The next day, February 21


Does not sound like a coup, does it? Several parliament members of Yanukovich's party defected to the opposition resulting in a parliamentary majority opposing Yanukovich and his tactics against the protesters.

Nothing in the February 21 agreement signed by Yanukovich and representatives of the protesters required him to resign his office or to order security forces not to protect government buildings. In fact it allowed him to stay in office until December 2014 when there would be elections, in which he presumably might be reelected. He was still the Commander-in-Chief and was in full charge of the security forces and the military.

Perhaps the parliament should have continued with impeachment proceedings in abstentia (since Yanukovich obviously was not coming back from Russia for the proceedings). I suppose that most people thought it a waste of time to impeach someone who had abandoned his office already and left the country. The US did not even follow through with an impeachment vote against Nixon after he left office voluntarily.

May 13, 2014

In 2010 both presidential candidates campaigned in favor of integration with Europe.

They must have perceived that to be a popular position with Ukrainian voters. You or I may know better than they do what is best for them but, the way the world works, they get to make the decision.

If the "REAL Ukraine" is any Ukrainian government that is fairly elected then I respect Russia's intention to let them control their own course - whatever that course - just as the US should respect the course that the Venezuelan government chooses. Too many American politicians and perhaps too many Russian ones consider the only REAL government of a small country to be one that agrees with them.

Neither Russia nor the US should say that we only respect the course that a REAL Ukrainian or a REAL Venezuelan government pursues if it is consistent with our vision of what their policies should be. Neither of us should "set that course for them".


I don't think the rest of the world thinks that Crimea is as 'settled' as you and Vladimir do since no other country recognizes the sovereignty of Russia over Ukraine.

While the conquest of Crimea has made Putin quite popular at home, it may come back to haunt him. It is an expensive acquisition in the sense of required spending on infrastructure needs particularly in terms of the provision of water and electricity, 80% of each come from what remains of Ukraine. Electorally, what was roughly a 50-50 country between the pro-Russia and pro-Europe factions has lost a big chunk of its pro-Russia voters. On a national level the pro-Europe politicians are going to have a much easier time getting elected and the pro-Russian ones a much tougher time. Eventually that is likely to bring the EU right to Russia border - something that strategically Russia had wanted to avoid.

May 13, 2014

During his 2010 election campaign Yanukovich said: "Ukraine's integration with the EU remains our

Of course in 2013 he changed that the policy of favoring integration with Europe and signed an agreement with Russia. Whatever his reasons for this policy reversal, apparently his explanation of the reasoning behind his reversal was not accepted by many Ukrainians. I dare say that many of us do not like it when a presidential candidate campaigns for one policy then, once in office, decides that the opposite policy is actually the way to go.

After months of massive, sustained public protests throughout a cold, Ukrainian winter, Yanukovich signed an agreement with the protesters in which he agreed to remain in office until early elections in December and to use security forces to protect public buildings. He still had complete control of the security forces and the military and could quite easily have lived up to his end of the agreement. If he had done so he would still be president of Ukraine today, governing the country and preparing himself for national elections in 5 months.

What did he do? Rather than remain in office and to his job with the protection of the security forces, he decided to pursue a different strategy - running away.

Within hours of signing the agreement the protesters (with the police, army and security forces under his control), he hastily abandoned his residence and left Kiev. Before leaving he ordered security forces not to protect public buildings. Why issue an order contradicting the agreement he had just signed? The image of mobs mobbing and looting public buildings would create an image of lawlessness and violence that could be used by others to justify military intervention. Of course the looting and burning did not happen (much to the surprise of him and Putin), but that did not change the spin.

If he had simply lived up to the agreement he signed with the protesters in February, he would be sitting in Kiev running the government pending elections in December. Now his own political party has abandoned him and Putin never mentions him. Indeed reports are that Putin is quite mad at him for the mess he made in Kiev and never says publicly that he thinks Yanukovich should return to the presidency.


Actually, no it is not. Fascists in Europe get along with other just fine, no matter what country they are from. If you know of examples of "hatred" among fascists of different European countries, please provide them. Right now European fascists are planning to form a coalition in the EU parliament after elections this month, assuming they do as well as many people seem to think they will do. The fact that European fascists side with Putin and not the government in Kiev is highly relevant. They side with those who share their goals - regardless of what country they are from - not their enemies.

May 7, 2014

Classic neo-con idea - the Vladimir W. al Assad strategy as employed in Grozny, Fallujah and Homs.

First make sure you have the tanks and planes and they don't. Second surround the city and seal it off. Then use your bombs and tanks from far away to reduce the city to rubble. (Some would say there is a risk of 'collateral damage', i.e. killing civilians, women and children, but you have to be tough to defeat the 'rebels' who are entrenched in the city. Can't let danger to civilians stand in your way. You start playing by the "rules" and you are weak and destined to lose. Besides the 'accidental' deaths of a lot of civilians sends a powerful 'message' to those who resist you. Just ask Vlad, George and Bashar.)

When the city is sufficiently 'softened up' send in your soldiers to do the block-by-block, house-by-house fighting against hopefully demoralized and weakened 'rebels' and the civilians that may be foolish enough to get in the way.

It is a classic neo-con battle strategy. You use your superior military power to defeat a weaker opponent; you and your country look "strong" and "respected" - not to be trifled with; battlefield success boosts your political popularity at home; you kill a lot of civilians (bad PR for a while but nobody pays attention for long) and destroy a lot of buildings and infrastructure (imagine the money to be made during reconstruction); not many of your guys get killed because you are blasting the city from miles away and high in the sky so there's relatively little political resistance back home.

The Kiev government has apparently done the first two, relatively easy, steps: they have the tanks and planes and the 'rebels' do not; they have surrounded the city and sealed it off. We shall see if they are really up for the next step - the big 'neo-con' step of unleashing the power of the tanks and planes on the 'rebels' in the city. So far Kiev has not shown the same level of 'determination' that Vlad, George and Bashar have shown in similar situations. That may change but I have my doubts.

May 3, 2014

The real issue is that Russia's fascists back Putin as do fascists throughout Europe.

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia

Despite the party's name, it is frequently described as "neither liberal nor democratic." While the party describes itself as centrist and reformist, it is usually regarded as far-right and is identified with Russian ultranationalism, fiscally left national-populism and authoritarian conservatism. Its ideology is based primarily on Zhirinovsky's ideas of "imperial reconquest".

Platform

The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia aims for "a revival of Russia as a great power." It has opposed both communism and the "wild" capitalism that resulted from Russia's reforms. It favours a mixed economy with private ownership but with a strong management role reserved for the state. In foreign policy, the party places a strong emphasis on "civilizations." It has supported the restoration of Russia with its "natural borders" (which the party believes include Belarus, Ukraine and other former Soviet republics).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_of_Russia

April 30, 2014

OECD study: Income gains to top 1% last 30 years - US worst (by far), Europe best (by far).

Top 1% taking lion's share of global growth, OECD says

Canada is second only to the U.S. in its growing inequality. In the U.S., about 47 per cent of total growth went to the wealthiest one per cent between 1975 and 2007, compared to 37 per cent in Canada, while in Australia and the U.K., about 20 per cent of growth went to the wealthiest.

In Nordic countries and in France, Italy, Portugal and Spain, about 90 per cent of growth went to the 99 per cent of middle and low-income earners in the same period.

Larry Summers, who was secretary of the treasury under Bill Clinton and is now a Harvard professor, has pointed out how the constant push for tax cuts and the erosion of union bargaining rights has led to greater income inequality.

The study calls for higher marginal tax rates and fewer tax deductions and credits aimed at high income earners. It also advocates wealth or inheritance taxes.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/top-1-taking-lion-s-share-of-global-growth-oecd-says-1.2627154

In all the European countries listed in the study as well as Australia 80%-90% of income gains went to the 99%. The study period ended in 2007 before the Great Recession when even income gains for the 1% were even more skewed but the pattern is obvious.

Through smart government policy it is possible for economies to grow and for the gains to be skewed towards the 99%.