grantcart
grantcart's JournalIntrade Update PBO 9/24 71; 9/25 73; 9/26 75; 9/27 77; 9/28 78
9/24 Now its 71 If you need a smile look at the curve.
Intrade continues to go to in favor of the President by big margins.
9/11 President 60 Romney 40
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
Keeps going up
Now Obama 60.2 Romney 32.6
In one week the President's spread has gone up 6 points.
Also whereever there has been a Republican primary the President's chances for winning the state has improved significantly.
Romney can say good bye to his 'home state' Hew Hampshire;
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/02/fav-obama_n_725997.html
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326
Now
2/6/2012 Intrade Obama 58 Romney 36
Was
2/4/2012 Intrade Obama 57 Romney 38.6 Completely batshit crazy 4.4
Previous
1/29/2012 Intrade Obama 54.9 Romney 38.6 Completely batshit crazy 6.5
The President has moved from a 16.3 point spread to 18.4
CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau): campaign against predators who prey on mil. personnel.
Anyone who lives around military bases has heard stories about unethical sales people and practices that are designed to victimize unsophisticated enlisted folks.
Secretary Cordray has initiated a plan to shut them down and I have heard on the grape vine that some offices are closing this weekend so as to not be caught in federal prosecutions.
http://www.consumerfinance.gov/pressrelease/federal-and-state-officials-announce-new-law-enforcement-partnership-to-protect-military-community/
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Officials from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the Department of Defense, and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) were joined by the New York Attorney General today to announce the development of a database to combat consumer financial frauds directed at military members, veterans, and their families. The Repeat Offenders Against Military (ROAM) Database will track completed enforcement actions against companies and individuals who repeatedly scam military personnel.
“As a former Ohio Attorney General, I know how frustrating it is to expose a scam and then see it take root in another state. The ROAM database will help law enforcement crack down on frauds that cross state lines,” said CFPB Director Richard Cordray today at a press conference. “ROAM is a huge step forward in our mission to improve consumer protection for the military community.”
Law enforcement officials across the country, including state Attorneys General, United States Attorneys, and Judge Advocates (JAGs) from all five branches of the armed forces, will be able to search the ROAM database for publicly available information about completed civil and criminal legal actions against perpetrators of financial scams against military personnel, veterans, and their families.
“During my visits to military communities across the country, I continue to hear stories of servicemembers and veterans being defrauded by businesses that see our troops as easy targets for a quick profit. This database will help law enforcers stop some of the worst offenders – those that have made a practice of targeting our men and women in uniform and our veterans,” said Holly Petraeus, the CFPB’s Assistant Director for the Office of Servicemember Affairs.
More unbelievable non FOX coverage "Nothing to see here" part duex
During SC primary results FOX didn't cover Gingrich's victory and speech: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12513372
Currently MSNBC is showing the President live in Iowa.
Currently CNN is flipping between Gingrich in Florida and the President in Iowa
Currently FOX is showing an update about snow in Washington State, and other blather but neither Gingrich nor the President live.
Gallup: another day of collapse for Romney now Gingrich 31 (+3) Romney 27 (-2)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspxThis is the graphy from yesterday which has not yet been updated. With the new numbers Gingrich will be on top and Romney on the bottom. As it is a 5 day rolling poll and is still reflecting some pre SC numbers, expect more bad news for Romney tomorrow.
Gingrich's earlier gains was coming from drinking Santorum's milkshake (a mind mending frothy concoction) while now he is drinking Romney's milkshake and returning Romney to his more or less under 30 ceiling. All of this shows, IMO, that Romney has an iron ceiling of about 28% in the Republican Party and only went above that briefly when after it appeared that he had won both Iowa and New Hamshire was able to get some soft temporary support.
Now that it is clear that he didn't win Iowa and that his only win was his 'home' state the soft support has melted away and Romney is returning to the mid twenties which appeared to be strong before, only because there were 6 other candidates. Romney's people are seeing this as well and know that they have a very short fuse to upset the apple cart. If he doesn't he will lose the only advantage he ever had, that he is electable.
Romney is on the edge of a historic collapse.
Mr. Carpenter posted a thread at the same time showing that Rasmussen is showing similar results
As predicted in December a 'Draft Daniels Campaign' has begun. (updated 25/1)
Today January 25th
Huffington Post joins the whispering
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/24/gop-2012-presidential-candidates_n_1229343.html
Yesterday was USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-01-24/indiana-governor/52769606/1
Whispering campaign for Daniels already started (December 19);
http://www.democraticunderground.com/100245248
Why the new rules for the Republican primary season make it impossible for one candidate to get 51% of the delegates in a multi candidate field (December 11);
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023695
Why Romney is finished (Decenber 14)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/100215205
Now here is Draft Daniels website;
http://www.runmitchrun.com/
Here are articles that are the second stage of a whispering campaign
(January 24th) http://www.ology.com/politics/mitch-daniels-reconsidering-presidential-bid/01242012
Here is Kristol
January 23rd
Debate Winner: Mitch Daniels
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/debate-winner-mitch-daniels_618334.html
I’ve got to think Monday night’s debate further swelled the groundswell of support for Mitch Daniels. The liveliest part of the debate was at the beginning, when Mitt went after Newt—and Republicans all over America watched with fascinated horror at the thought that these are the two GOP frontrunners. The only spectacle in American politics more off-putting than Newt Gingrich in self-righteous defense mode is Mitt Romney in self-righteous attack mode. I thought Mitt’s attacks were somewhat more dishonest than Newt’s defenses were disingenuous, but it was good to move on to the rest of the debate, where little further damage was done.
My conclusion: If Mitch Daniels’s effective tax rate is 30 percent rather than 15 percent, and if he was never paid $1.6 million by Freddie Mac, he can be the next president.
January 23rd
Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/mitch-daniels-and-what-could-have-been/2012/01/23/gIQAdmffLQ_blog.html
January 22nd
http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/22/calls-renew-for-mitch-daniels-to-enter-presidential-race/
This much chatter has to be coordinated. If Daniels really wanted to get out of all consideration he could have done what Chris Christie did and endorse another candidate.
Slate's horse race
It was posted a few months before but allows DUers to relive the hilarious moments of the Republican debacle
as one clown after another falls of their horse.
Palin, Pawlenty, Cain, Bachman, Perry, and Huntsman all falling off the horse while Romney just can't get his horse to pull
ahead no matter how much he whips that poor horse.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2011/10/horse_race_politics_an_animation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html
BREAKING: Romney to outsource angry response to Gingrich.
Campaign insiders are telling us that Romney is going to show how he intends to use his managerial skills
as a political leader by outsourcing his 'angry at Gingrich, and golly I'm not going to take any more
of his shennanigans' response by hiring a professional to make a cameo appearance at the debate to
handle the question about how he feels about Gingrich.
While the exact surrogate hasn't been identified it is rumored that its going to be this guy;
Nobody Loves Me: A Mitt Music Video
&feature=player_embeddedIslamic Contributions to Science: The Scientific Method
In the normal course of education, students in the West experience a narrative that has all but wiped out the massive contributions of Islamic scholars into the knowledge that we all rely on today.
One example of this is understanding how rational thought was resurrected in Europe after the mid ages with the help of Islamic academia.
How aggregious this whitewashing has become is in the western charachterization of the great Islamic university and library at Timbucktu as a non-existent place.
At the height of the Golden Age of Islam Timbucktu was one of the greatest learning centers of the world;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timbuktu
?size=44527
At the same time the West was in the throws of the anti-rational middle ages Islam was going through the greatest age of intellectual growth since Greece. As the Church was promoting the Spanish Inquisition and the destruction of libraries in Europe Islamic libraries were maintaining the threads from Aristotle.
It is quite possible that without the Islamic libraries that many of the early works from Greece would have been lost forever.
Here is an example of ancient texts of Timbuktu
http://everythingspossible.wordpress.com/2008/07/13/timbuktu-islam-and-knowledge/
The Institute of Higher Learning and Islamic Research of Ahmad Baba (IHERIAB) is founded by the government of Mali, with collaboration of Unesco. Ahmad Baba al-Massufi, Ahmed Baba Es Sudane, or Ahmed Baba, the black (1556–1627), was a medieval West African writer, political provocateur and scholar of Masjid Sankore. Through out his life, he wrote more than 40 books and is often noted as having been Timbuktu’s greatest scholar and mujaddid.
IHERIAB’s library holds some of these manuscripts in order to restore and digitize them. More than 18,000 manuscripts have been collected by IHERIAB, but an estimate said there are about 400,000-700,000 manuscripts in the region. There are many other private bibliotheques in Timbuktu where thousands of manuscripts are kept. Some manuscripts were taken and kept to Paris, London, Spain and other parts of Europe. Some manuscripts were buried underground, while others were hidden in the desert or in caves. Many are still hidden today.
It is possible that at the same time Europe was lighting its libraries on fire that the great library of Timbuktu had more than a million transcripts, which would mean that it was the largest library in human history prior to the printing press.
Unknown to Europe Islamic scholars were refining Aristotles methods of inquiry into a formal inductive scientific method.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_scientific_method
The founder of the modern Scientific Method is
Ibn al-Haytham
Ibn al-Haytham (Alhazen), a pioneer of scientific method.
The first of these experimental scientific methods was developed in Iraq by the Muslim physicist and scientist, Ibn al-Haytham (Alhazen), who used experimentation and mathematics to obtain the results in his Book of Optics (1021).[16] In particular, he combined observations, experiments and rational arguments to support his intromission theory of vision, in which rays of light are emitted from objects rather than from the eyes. He used similar arguments to show that the ancient emission theory of vision supported by Ptolemy and Euclid (in which the eyes emit the rays of light used for seeing), and the ancient intromission theory supported by Aristotle (where objects emit physical particles to the eyes), were both wrong.[17] Ibn al-Haytham's scientific method resembled modern scientific method and consisted of the following procedures:[18]
1.Explicit statement of a problem, tied to observation and to proof by experiment
2.Testing and/or criticism of a hypothesis using experimentation
3.Interpretation of data and formulation of a conclusion using mathematics
4.The publication of the findings
Three hundered years later Robert Grosseteste would read a translations of Arabic translations of Aristotle and build on Islamic scholars development of the scientific method.
Bacon would build on that and 700 years after Ibn al-Haytham Sir Isaac Newton would use those methods to revolutionaize Western Science.
I think that it is very difficult to understand the clerical system in Iran and how Persians have been influenced by peer review as a method of leadership without understanding how they have been influenced by Ibn al-Haytham. There is no central leader in Iran but different factions that are trying to vie for influence by appealing to a peer review. It is in our interest to create seperation between the radicals and win over the moderate clerics and hasten the eventual Iran/American reapproachment.
As one that has family and friends that are Muslims I subscribe to this group so that I can learn more about Islamic contributions to history as well as to understand what progressive Muslims are thinking today.
Gallup numbers show Romney in SHARP decline. Romney intrade on SC win: massive sell off (9)
From the begining I predicted that Romney will not be the nominee, and that the Republican Party would find these clowns unworthy and start favorite sons and drafts to do it all over at the conventionGallup's rolling national poll is showing Romney having the same kind of poll collapse that Cain, Gingrich and Perry had. Rember this is a rolling poll averaging five days so it has a momentum to it that is even more significant than a regular daily poll;
PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney is a considerably weaker front-runner among Republican registered voters nationally than he was at the beginning of the week. Romney now leads Newt Gingrich by 30% to 20%, with Rick Santorum and Ron Paul tied at 13%. At the beginning of the week, Romney had a 23-percentage-point lead over Gingrich and Santorum.
The latest results, based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted Jan. 15-19, only partially reflect the potential impact of the dramatic events that have roiled the GOP presidential race this week. These include the withdrawal of two candidates (Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry) from the race, a televised interview given by Gingrich's second wife in which she discussed her former husband's extramarital affair, the continued focus on Romney's tax returns, the announcement that Santorum rather than Romney apparently won the Iowa caucuses, and a lively debate in South Carolina Thursday night in which Gingrich lashed out at the news media, and the CNN moderator in particular.
Polls in South Carolina suggest that Gingrich has a good chance of winning that state, and if so, the race could tighten further in the coming days.
Interactive poll here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
Intrade has a huge Romney sell off and a big buy on Gingrich now at 65% and Romney is at 39%
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=750749&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=750753&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
Interestingly those behind the grass roots campaign for Cain have now gone 100% in for Gingrich.
http://draftcain.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/south-carolina-grassroots-boots-for-newt/
With Romney melting away and fire bomber Gingrich on the upswing the smart guys in the Republican Party are going to start looking for ways to keep this going and flush all of these clowns for a Republican Governor and start a draft movement.
Links to the other 8 post in the series predicting that Romney will not be the nominee and it will be a brokered convention here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512491
Working hard to become the most insufferable "I told you so" series in DU history and having more fun than should be legal without sex watching Romney make a total ass out of himself.
"I told you so".
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