November 6, 2018

A very real path to taking the Senate Part II

Yesterday I had a thread that documented multiple sources showing a 3-4% bump for Democrats in the final polls.

This probably represents a small number of GOP changing and 7-8% of independents who were effected by the bombing attempts, the Synagogue shootings and the capricious attempt to rewrite birth right citizenship in the 14th amendment. We finally hit the straw that broke a lot of independents backs. Details here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211367865

There may be a broader "mass dynamic" at play here that you see in herds that are going in one direction and then move in another election. It turns out that when there are big moves in the House and the Senate has around 9 competitive seats that they don't split the seats but they go overwhelming in one direction.

We see other data points like huge increases in youth vote, including a 2500% increase in the youth vote in North Dakota. Does it make any sense that the youth in ND would show up in mass numbers if they thought the race was over? It is their perception that something still matters that creates a new reality and while the pundits have written ND off the youth, the tribes, and the Democrats haven't.

Those same data points ripple through every competitive Senate race. The Senate hasn't been decided and if we follow the patterns of herd movement in the past then we could end the night 51 Dems 48 Republicans and a seat in Mississippi that is headed for a run off election.

Hugh Hewitt casually is pimping for a GOP pick up of 4 seats and he has been wrong 493,932 times.

We don't know who is going to win the Senate but a careful examination of the data, including the last day bump in Dem numbers and a well established historical pattern points in our direction. The Senate is still in play.

November 6, 2018

****** RandySF Appreciation Thread ****** Thank you *****

Every election cycle one DUer steps up and gets into the weeds and fleshes out all of the important races across the country.

This cycle we were particularly fortunate that RandySF stepped up and gave us hourly reports on all of the competitive House seats as well as the Senate seats.

This is a huge benefit to our community and saves us thousands of hours. His posts were accurate and supported Democratic challengers without succumbing to a cheerleader bias.

I had budgeted my time today to spend hours combing through the minutiae of 90 competitive races to have a check off list on who to watch. I prepared pencils, pads and two beers to get me through it.

Now I can just download RandySF's list and check it off as the night unfolds. Still keeping the beers.

You can find RandySF's list here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=journals&uid=231353&page=3

I for one think that he should be rewarded with lots of pats on the back and a doubling of his DU stipend.

Thanks for a gigantic amount of research which saved us a lot of time.

October 30, 2018

This the last Monday

This is the last Monday that Donald Trump can go to bed without wondering what the House of Representatives is going to do to hold him accountable for his actions.

This is the last Monday that Donald Trump can go to bed and not wonder what the Republicans in the House and the Senate will do to ensure that they aren't wiped out in the next blue wave and will they turn on him to save their seats.

It is not the last night that he will hear rumours of serious infighting in his cabinet.

It is not the last night that he will go to bed reading embarrassing stories about his actions leaked by his own staff.

Where we are behind we can catch up.

Where it is close we can take the seat.

The Senate is still up for grabs.

Where we are ahead we can pile up a mountain of votes so that no one will want to challenge our incumbent.

And the reason for this is very simple.

Forget the Presidential approval numbers, forget the generic ballot because we didn't recruit generic candidates.

In fact we didn't recruit these candidates they sat down at their kitchen table and figured that they had enough and went down and put their name on the ballot.

Having looked at dozens and dozens of districts (aided by the indefatigable RandySF ambition posting on dozens of districts) it is clear that the team that we have on the ballot is the most inspiring, talented, articulate, compassionate team of candidates in the history of the Republic.

And they are being led by an astonishing number of brilliant, capable, talented experienced women.

Women candidates and women voters are going to give the Republic a chance to redeem itself.

This is the last Monday where we have to live in a constitutional Republic where the people's house has been paralyzed by atrophy and just like most of our houses it will be the women that clean up the house and put things straight.

October 29, 2018

Hate speech is protected

Precursor to a crime?

So you want to arrest something because they might do something?

I hate intolerant people. I hate NAZIS. Now arrest me.

Making a speech inciting people to attack someone is a crime.

Limitations to the right of absolute speech have been carefully worked out over 240 years. What new limitation do you propose that isn't already in existance?

October 29, 2018

These aren't the worst days of the Republic but they are the most vulgar.

Vietnam, the McCarthy Era, World Wars, Japanese Internment, Jim Crow, the Civil War, two hundred years of aggressive slavery and the genocide of Native Americans are but a few of the times where the Republic suffered more and/or suffered more.

But it has never been this vulgar or vain.


So while we have seen greater evil by scale in terms of the number of lives and the amount of suffering by individuals we have never seen this level of degradation of spirit, mind numbing banality and trivialization of American values.

In five days we have witnessed more political violence combined than in decades.

1) Gregory Bush tries to enter the predominately African American First Baptist Church in Jeffersontown but the doors were locked. He runs to the store to start shooting random blacks and fortunately is stopped by a good Samaritan who is armed and starts shooting at him.

2) Cesar Sayoc mails 14 IEDs and is stopped by outstanding law enforcement action.

3) Robert Bowers murders 11 unarmed synagogue members because he thinks that they are funding the caravan that is going to come up and destroy "his people". Within minutes of his tweeting "screw your optics I am going in" and discharging the first round law enforcement was there to stop him.

If these these three had an ounce of the strategic awareness that the Las Vegas shooter had we would be looking at casualty rates in the hundreds and what does Donald Trump discuss at his first public appearance with the FFA?

His bad hair day.

https://metro.co.uk/2018/10/28/donald-trump-jokes-of-bad-hair-day-after-being-caught-in-rain-on-day-of-mass-shooting-8082040/

We are looking at a very high chance that this vulgarian will be front and center for everyone to see for the next 2 years.

And the evil is compounding. The DACA children are at risk. The legal TPS holders number exceed 600,000. If the asylum seekers reach the border and successfully apply for asylum he will lash out at them and others.

The competence of the regime is going to disintegrate as cabinet leaders leave in mass.

We are watching a dystopian mix between Groundhog Day and Lord of the Flies.

The really disturbing question is why is this mid term even going to be close? Before he was elected there was a theoretical argument that some could make that he was going to pivot and become Presidential.

Now we see that he has only card to play, the double down card and nothing is going to change.

October 25, 2018

AZ early voting statistics 10/24

Background

Registered Voters

2018 3.7 million
2016 3.58
2014 3.2

Current breakdown by party affiliation

1.288 Republican 35%
1,238 Independents 34%
1,151 Democratic 31%

Early voting

Total

Republicans 291K 44.4%
Democratic 214K 32.7%
Independent 147K 22.4%

Links: http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics
https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

The one stat I really don't understand is Women are only 49.7% of the vote.

For Sinema to have a chance we nee 54% of the vote by women.

Need everyone to get to their nearest campaign office and help calling to get Dems out to vote. If you need information on the nearest office respond to this thread with your zip code.

October 22, 2018

Monday 10/22 Today's GOTV Good news update thread It is still possible to take the Senate.

1) Everything is still in play. Our strong showing in the House simply means that we have more Republican incumbents that are in seats we can take.

The Senate is still in play. Even North Dakota is still in play. Cramer polls consistently at 50% Heitkamp at 42% with large MOE and 8% undecideds. Wouldn't put it in the win column but we haven't lost in North Dakota. John Ralston had a county by county analysis on MSNBC where he detailed why it is much closer in ND than people give credit for it. Ralston (who picked Reid when the polls had him losing) had a very specific analysis of why ND polls are less reliable than other states. He also credits Heitkamp for being very effective in closing in the rural areas where she came from. He didn't say that she was leading but he said that she was still in the game.


2) Nevada Perhaps the best Democratic GOTV effort on a per capita basis has been unleashed and is rolling

The polls in NV are basically tied. Its going to be down to who has better GOTV
https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/nevada/

The machine that beat the polls that showed that Harry Reid was losing is back in full operation:

Ralston says that "Another big turnout day in Clark. In 2014, it was about 7,500 on Day Two. As of 3 PM today, 17,000 had turned out. Going to be three or four times last midterm.

3) Florida: A million votes are in already and the polls look strong

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/florida/

The most reliable polls show Nelson moving to a 4-5% lead but Florida is always within 1-2% in heavily contested state wide elections. We need a high turnout to win.
A total of 55,640 mail-in ballots have already been cast in Broward County, 28,617 in Palm Beach County and 71,152 in Miami-Dade.



4) Tennessee Blackburn's Kavanaugh bounce is going away

The last 3 polls show Blackburn's numbers going down. The latest poll by Vanderbilt shows Bredesen up by 1%

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/tennessee/

The good/bad news is that TN is nearly last in the country in election turnout.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/27/tennessee-voter-registration-turnout-panel/1115860002/

The party that is the most motivated and the most organized is going to win TN. As Bredesen has won state wide campaigns he should be the most organized and Dems are the most motivated.

5) AZ Sinema appears to hold her lead


https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/arizona/

The DSCC and MoveOn have made a huge investment in GOTV along with the AFL CIO. There are over 40 full time GOTV staffers from DSCC and MoveOn in AZ. The action in Tucson has been robust. Friends in Phoenix say it is less. Its hard to for me to judge because I am on the inside and every campaign beside President Obama's that I have worked on has underperformed, lol.

We should win but it could be close. AZ 2 is going to flip to blue. The Senate could come down to a few hundred votes.

6) Missouri is tied

This should have been an easy pick up for the GOP but the polling could not be closer, and it hasn't moved much, especially if you compare poll to poll. No word on early voting. Perhaps the best variable in Missouri is that the GOP has consistently underestimated McCaskill

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/missouri/

7) Texas, something big is happening in Texas

The polls in Texas show us down 6% but there is one critical problem with these polls, they are based on models that show low performance by the young and Latino voters in past elections. This isn't an ideological war in Texas it is a leadership/personality war. A very small change in the modelling will put Beto on top.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/texas/

Four years ago only 54% of registered voters voted in the off year election. We simply need moderate increase in Democratic voters and a swing of independents and disenchanted Republicans to make up the 5-6% in the polls.



We currently have 49 Senate seats. If we accept the positive polls in FL, WV, MT, NJ and Ohio as likely wins we end up with 3 Dem states that are real toss ups or likely loss:

If we put IN ND or MI into toss up or lean Republican then we have 46 Senate seats needing 5 to make 51.

The Rep/Dem toss up "pool" then has 7 seats for us to make 5. Those 7 are: AZ ND NV IN MI TN TX

We look like we have a good chance in MI, NV, IN and AZ. If we take those then we there are 3 seats to make one:

ND, TX, TN

If we lose MI, NV, IN or AZ then we would need to take 2 out of the 3 longshot states.

It is a long shot but the Senate is still in play.

Its like drawing to an inside straight.

Or it is less likely than if you asked pollsters 12 years ago what are the odds we could elect someone by the name of Barack Hussein Obama to be President of the United States.

September 30, 2018

Just think. If only 17 year old Kavanaugh liked girls as much as he liked beer . . .

If Republicans were as committed to the Constitution as they are in getting a 5th seat on the Supreme Court.

If rural red America knew as much about the rules of economics as the rules of NASCAR championship ranking.

If rich Americans were as motivated to get universal health car as they were another tax advantage.

If the Tea Party hated war as much as they hated Hillary Clinton.

If Evangelical Christians were as well informed about the actual meaning of the bible as they were on how to post their views on Facebook.

If the NRA was as committed to gun safety as gun proliferation and increasing gun lethality.

If Nunes and the other Trump sycophants were as committed to stopping our involvement in the Saudi bombing of innocents in Yemen as they are in stopping the FBI investigating Russian involvement in our internal affairs.

If NRA members loved children as much as they loved their guns.

If farmers knew as much about the destructive nature of punitive tariffs as they know about crop rotation.


If all, any or some of those things happened then this last week would have been a pleasant week and we could have had reasonable bipartisan talks in the Senate. But none of those things happened and it came down to one Republican Senator. One person. I love Lawrence O'Donnell but when he is talking about how great the Senate is because one person can make a difference it defies a rational view of our world. What if Flake had food poisoning or what if he had taken the Senator's elevator where citizens can't go? Its when systems are designed to be saved by a single person that you end up with Civil and World Wars.

I was going to add "If only Trump loved one other human being as much as he loved himself" but while all of the other things listed above are conceivable that is not. It is the one and only absolute in our present political nightmare. Donald Trump is, like Mussolini and others like him, in a party of one.

We could have it all. Universal health care, world peace, massive third world development, significant reduction in CO2 gasses, huge increase in health care outcomes for every person in the world, and a truly decent college football playoff calendar (OK, I went to far). We have the technology, we have the ability.

This morning had a haircut and the barber asked "how is your summer?"

"Not good. I am an angry white male." (I like to give provocative statements that will illicit a response)

"Oh" and after a few minutes "what are you angry about?"

"Angry white males", I answered. It took a minute or two and she finally got the absurdity of it and started chuckling. Eventually she was laughing too hard to cut hair.

"Its a good thing in Tucson we don't have to vote for angry white males, we can vote for Ann Kirkpatrick and Kristen Synema." Sharing moment. Felt pretty safe that a person covered in tattoos wasn't a right winger.

If only angry white males like Senator Graham weren't so angry maybe they wouldn't be single white males.

August 31, 2018

The Super Fantastic Hilariously Absurd Part of Trump's ignorance of all things related to the law

In my family I have siblings and a niece that are attorneys.

Their jobs have included family attorneys, corporate counsel, prosecuting attorney, judge and lecturer at a respected law university.

When we are at family events we talk about interesting cases and even the non lawyers have developed a good appreciation of how the law and the courts work and you better stay "on point" or you will be ruled out of order and have to buy the next round.

When anyone has a minor legal issue multiple phone calls are made, theories established, mock courts, etc.

After years of no traffic tickets I got one and after a dozen calls and a seminar on how to question a police officer about his radar gun, and checking all of the minute SOP requirements to keep current and how to ask for the official calibration log for the instrument I showed up for court prepared for a thorough defense including question whether or not the office got the correct legal speed right because where he wrote the ticket and where he saw me . . . and so on.

The officer didn't show.

In any case the point is when you have family that have decades in the law you have a resource to make sure that you stay within the boundaries to pursue your legal interest and don't talk like an idiot about the law and the courts.

Here is the funny part:

Meet Judge Barry, Trump's older sister:

She was nominated by Reagan to the Court and then later by Clinton to the Appeals court.

She achieved Senior Status.

She appears to be a competent judge with no outstanding political bias.



Trump is facing federal, state and local criminal prosecution. He is facing massive civil lawsuits from both governmental institutions and lots of individuals, including from previous staff from The Apprentice.

In November a new Congress is going to launch dozens of investigations that will open him up to massive exposure for both criminal and civil litigation.

And yet he talks about cases and the law in general like Barney Fife in Mayberry.

I am guessing that Judge Barry has given up trying to clue her younger brother in on how the law and the courts actually work.

If you look at the Trump Family Wikipedia page you will find that she has, by far, the least amount of information, a single sentence.

I am betting that Trump doesn't listen to her because "she is a girl" (she is 80).

Judge Barry has one child. Her son also is in a profession that would assist Trump. Trump's nephew is a psychologist.

August 23, 2018

"There are 'vote for Brown' signs all over the wheat fields".

I put the phone down and everything I looked at for the next 15 minutes was out of focus because my eyes were filled with joy.

My interlocutor was a lifelong friend with whom we have had to enact a "no discussing politics" provision because he adopted the nearly unanimous opinion of his neighbors in the rural area of Washington State to support Republicans and more importantly to him protest abortion.

That has all changed. He is hoping for a huge blue wave. Defeat every Republican.

As he drives in rural Eastern Washington he reports that most of the wheat farmers are sporting "vote for Brown" signs. "She is fantastic". "She is brilliant". This liberal Democrat has been able to reach across the divide and make sense to lots of Republicans in WA 5th where the number 4 Republican leader and the highest Republican woman in the House, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, won by 62,000 votes in 2016 or 20 points.

"Brown only lost by 8,000 votes in the 'jungle primary".

"We need to get everyone out to the polls in November. We are so close, we can do this," said the man who was a public official and until now has never voted for a Democrat.

"We need a blue wave to save the Republic, at least the farmers understand that they have been thrown under the bus".


This is Dr. Brown



The race gained attention when traitor Nunez was brought in by Morris-Rogers to help with fund raising.

When they talk about Democrats leading in the generic Congressional ballot by 11 points, or whatever an important point is missing.

We aren't running generic candidates. We are running great candidates, led by brilliant women who just got fed up and stepped up to run. They are running Duncan Hunters.

The wheat fields of Eastern Washington are the beautiful amber waves of grain and they can only be improved on by the "Vote for Brown" signs that are now in evidence.

75 Days.