democrattotheend
democrattotheend's JournalWhy are the roll call votes out of whack with the primary results?
For example, I don't think Biden was even viable in Iowa, but he got more votes tonight. Is that due to superdelegates (I thought they can't vote on the first ballot), did Bernie release his delegates and give them the choice the way Hillary did in 2008, or were the delegates for the other candidates all allocated to Biden?
Note: this is just a question, not sour grapes. I was for Warren in the primaries and she wasn't even nominated tonight. I'm just a junkie for this stuff.
The irony of Republican efforts to privatize the Postal Service
I posted something about this yesterday that came across the wrong way, because one of the downsides of the Internet is that sarcasm isn't always apparent. For the record, I don't think we should privatize the Postal Service, but I do find it rather ironic that if Republicans ever got their way on that, and USPS was either fully privatized or allowed to operate more like a business, Republican voters would be hurt the most. Why? Because if USPS were privatized or operated like a private business, it would likely opt not to service more remote areas that are less profitable without a surcharge due to the increased time and gas to get to each location, or it would charge more in less dense areas to account for the increased cost of service, as the private carriers already do.
Consider the two maps below. The first is a map of where UPS charges a remote or extended area surcharge. The red dots are the areas where the surcharge does not apply.
The second is a precinct-level map of the 2016 election results:
At some point, I will try to figure out a way to do an actual overlay map, but hopefully this is enough to illustrate my point. If USPS were operated more like a private business, as Republicans have been saying it should for decades, their constituents would be hit the hardest by the change. Indeed, the maps above don't even tell the whole story of how much rural America might be hurt by privatization, since UPS and FedEx currently keep rates in rural areas lower than they otherwise would be by using the USPS for "last mile" delivery in many rural areas. If USPS were not required to deliver to every address, or were allowed to vary the price of service based on the cost of servicing a given area, it's likely that USPS and the private carriers would charge even more for rural service.
The Postal Service isn't "unprofitable" because it's poorly run, or because of union contracts or benefits. It's "unprofitable" because it's required to service remote areas that are expensive to service with no ability to price the service to reflect the increased cost. I believe the Postal Service should be a public service and don't care if it's profitable, but the next time you hear a Republican complain about "bailing out" the Postal Service, remind them that one of the main things that makes it "unprofitable" is the mandate that it deliver to spread out houses in mostly Republican areas for the same price as delivering to an urban resident in a high-rise, despite the fact that the former costs 10 times as much in terms of labor time and gas.
I don't want to see the Postal Service privatized, but I find it ironic that the way it currently functions, it's one of many ways in which Blue America subsidizes Red America, the same Red America that claims to be against government handouts. So maybe Republican politicians ought to remember that the next time they start complaining about "blue state bailouts". And maybe they ought to remember that if they ever actually got their way and the Postal Service was allowed to operate like a private business, their constituents would suffer the most (and maybe they'd stop voting for Republicans!).
Trump to Pardon Susan B. Anthony
Apparently this was the big pardon he was teasing. Susan B. Anthony was arrested for voting when only men were allowed. On the 100th anniversary of the 19th Amendment, Trump will posthumously pardon Anthony for illegally voting. Kind of ironic, but otherwise harmless. Glad the pardon is a symbolic pander instead of a Trump crony who doesn't deserve it.
https://politicalwire.com/2020/08/18/trump-to-pardon-susan-b-anthony/
A plea to less at-risk Democrats: please avoid vote by mail
I know this runs contrary to what many people on our side have been saying, but for those who are younger, healthier, and not in a high-risk population with respect to coronavirus, the best thing you can do is vote in person (or use a drop-off option if your state allows it). In light of reports that the postal service won't be able to handle the expected surge in mail ballots (and the strong chance that some state elections offices also have insufficient capacity to send out and process ballots on time), I strongly encourage those who are not high risk or live in areas where the virus is mostly under control to go to the polls and leave the vote by mail option for those who are the most vulnerable if they get the coronavirus, like the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Just like many people stopped using Instacart and other grocery delivery services so there would be slots for those most at risk if they left their homes, we may have to do the same with mail ballots unless we are confident the lack of capacity/deliberate attempts at sabotage have been fixed.
Am I a suburban housewife, even though I have a career?
I'm married, live in the suburbs, and we own our home. But I have a career as a lawyer, so I don't know if I count as a "suburban housewife." I'm considering making myself a shirt or button that says "Suburban Housewife for Biden/Harris" but I don't know if that term actually applies to me.
Morning Consult polls have Biden up +2 in Texas, +1 in Georgia, +10 in MI...but only +3 in MN?
Check out these new Morning Consult polls:
WI Biden 50 Trump 43 (D+7)
VA Biden 52 Trump 41 (D+11)
TX Biden 47 Trump 45 (D+2)
PA Biden 50 Trump 42 (D+8)
OH Biden 45 Trump 48 (R+3)
NC Biden 47 Trump 47 (Tie)
MN Biden 47 Trump 44 (D+3)
MI Biden 52 Trump 42 (D+10)
GA Biden 47 Trump 46 (D+1)
FL Biden 49 Trump 46 (D+3)
CO Biden 52 Trump 39 (D+13)
AZ Biden 49 Trump 42 (D+7)
National Biden 51 Trump 43 (D+8)
Anyone else find this odd? How could Biden be winning by 7 in Arizona, 10 in Michigan, 7 in Wisconsin, 8 in Pennsylvania, and even be up slightly in Georgia and Texas, but only up by 3 in Minnesota? Do you think there's a backlash to the unrest that occurred after the George Floyd shooting? I remember thinking at the time when I saw the fires and broken windows in Minneapolis that those images would play right into Trump's hands. Fortunately it seems to have had the opposite effect everywhere else, but I've been saying for a while Minnesota is a state we shouldn't take for granted this year. Hillary barely won it in 2016 (ditto for New Hampshire), and I'd hate to see a repeat of 2016 where states we took for granted end up costing Biden the election. If his big national lead and lead in other states holds Minnesota should be fine (and we don't even need it, though it would be a sad loss, since other than DC it has the longest Democratic voting streak in presidential elections). But if, as in 2016, the polls tighten nationally, states like Minnesota could be Trump's ace in the hole like PA, MI and WI were in 2016.
I voted (NY-03)
For the presidential primary, I discovered that you vote for the delegates separately from the candidate. So this gave me an opportunity to "split the baby", so to speak. I voted for Elizabeth Warren for president, since she's the person I really wanted to vote for and I figure it doesn't matter now so I might as well vote my heart. But for the delegates I split my vote between some of her delegates and some of Yang's because I appreciate Yang's effort to reinstate the primary and give people like me the chance to have a voice, even if it's only symbolic at this point.
For Congress I voted for the progressive challenger, Melanie D'Arrigo. I was a little torn because I am not a fan of Tom Suozzi, but in 2016 he only won 53-47, so I was slightly worried about the seat falling to Republicans if we nominate a progressive. But he won comfortably in 2018 and it's looking to be another good year for Democrats, so I figured it was worth taking a chance. She probably won't win anyway.
This was my first time voting at this polling place because I moved since the last election, and apparently they had a special location for the primary. The polling place was a little far - I had to drive over 3 miles, which isn't that bad, but at my old address I could walk to my polling place. But at least this place had parking, and the poll workers were super nice. I thanked them for their service and volunteering their time. They pointed out that they get paid, but I said they were still performing a public service, especially under the circumstances. I was the only voter there at 8:30 pm, half hour before the polls closed. Cuomo ordered absentee applications to be sent out to every registered voter, so I guess a lot of people voted by mail.
These protests are making me rethink my stance on gun control
Thinking about the military presence and over-armored police in the cities, most of which have strict gun control laws, and contrasting it to the lockdown protests in Michigan last month. I'm not a gun person, but I'm starting to think it's really unfair that in states like New York, people in the mostly white suburbs have the right to own guns, some without even needing a permit, while in the cities that right is almost non-existent for private citizens. There's a big part of me right now that would like to see peaceful black protesters carry guns and assert their "Second Amendment rights" the same way the protesters in Michigan did. Then either the MAGAts defend their right to keep and bear arms, or expose themselves for the utter hypocrites they are. Why should minorities in the cities be required to be practically defenseless against police abuse while white MAGAts in the suburbs openly storm the Michigan state capitol with guns?
Looks like Mitch McConnell did the right thing for once
From Politico:
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday made an extensive pitch for Americans to don face masks as a means to begin returning the country to normalcy while the coronavirus remains a threat.
“There’s no stigma attached to wearing a mask. There’s no stigma attached to staying six feet apart,” the Kentucky Republican said at an event back in his home state, referencing social distancing guidelines recommended to stem the transmission of the coronavirus.
...
McConnell’s comments targeted at young people came after images of Americans partying over Memorial Day weekend flooded social media and drew rebukes from local health officials.
“That’s not too much to ask of a younger person,” he said of wearing face coverings. “So to get through this next phase, as we ease back into normal, even if you’re in a low-risk category, do what we’re asking you to do for the good of others as we begin to move back to normal.”
I guess even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Profile Information
Member since: Wed Jan 30, 2008, 03:33 PMNumber of posts: 11,605
