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Mike 03

Mike 03's Journal
Mike 03's Journal
April 9, 2020

Speculating...

I think what's going to end up happening is that a company like Amazon (or Walgreen/Walmart/Google) is going to get into the "overnight testing" business, where you or I can order, say, three coronavirus tests, submit a sample, use their handy, easy return shipping option, and obtain the results online in two days or so. (Like a faster version of 23 and Me DNA testing).

Another possibility might be a do it yourself home kit, where you can actually perform it right at home and get the results in a matter of minutes (my preference). They won't be perfect, so I would probably order three and see if they all agreed. I don't know when that's coming, but it's the best solution I can think of.

Because of economies of scale and demand, I think it will be relatively inexpensive.

April 7, 2020

I think the poster is correct.

We are getting half the truth. I've heard doctors asked point-blank about the contradiction of masks protecting others but not the wearer and they side-step it and talk about the shortage of masks for medical professionals.

I think what people want to know is the physics of a mask that protects people six feet away from the wearer, but not the person wearing the mask from people six feet away. That would sure be a dumb mask to mass-produce for medical professionals.

April 7, 2020

Totally agree.

This morning I gave a mask to my sister for her doctor's appointment tomorrow for a matter unrelated to COVID-19. She worked as a physician's assistant, so she knows a lot of this, but I just told her to read the fitting instructions and restrain herself from adjusting the mask, and to keep doing all the things she's been doing like washing her hands frequently, social distancing--and not to take the mask for granted as it certainly doesn't guarantee you can't get infected. She has rheumatoid arthritis and is at some risk of developing complications if she contracts this virus.

A mask optimizes one's chances, and since nobody in our government is looking out for us, our health is our personal responsibility. It's possible that wearing a mask means one less person calling 911, occupying an ICU, taking up a precious ventilator. IMO that's just being a good (and intelligent) citizen and trying not to become part of the problem of overfilled hospitals.

Early on I earnestly repeated some of those lies here, such as "the only benefit of wearing a mask is that it stops you from touching your face." We've heard a few lies now. Just reflecting for even a few seconds, and looking a the relative success of other countries where mask-wearing was required, should be enough to raise questions.

April 2, 2020

By the way, for the first week or so I was one of those well meaning and earnest

people repeating those nonsensical tropes about masks until I sat down and thought about it carefully for about fifteen seconds and realized it was a load of crap. Of course masks help you whether you're infected or trying not to get infected. It's worked in other countries, why wouldn't it work in the United States?

So I love your post. Thank you.

April 2, 2020

The way I look at it, wearing an N95 mask plus observing social distancing and hand washing

is an act of kindness to the first responders, because that is one less person who will need an ambulance ride, intubation and a ventilator. It's doing your part not to be part of the problem.

Also, I didn't "take" my masks from anybody. They've been in my emergency kit for years because I live in an area that is prone to wildfires. Paid one dollar per mask.

March 29, 2020

Maybe an interesting link: Air pollution and complications from COVID-19?

I was reading this article in the NYT:

Now Is the Time to Take Care of Your Lungs. Here’s How.

If you are one of the millions of Americans breathing polluted air, you may be at a greater risk of catching the coronavirus and of having a more severe infection.

The reasons are twofold. First, air pollution can cause or aggravate respiratory illnesses like asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. And those illnesses can make you more susceptible to the worst effects of lung infections. Second, exposure to air pollution is known to raise the chance of contracting viruses in the first place, regardless of underlying health conditions.

“Increased pollution increases susceptibility to infection,” said Dr. Meredith McCormack, a spokeswoman for the American Lung Association and associate professor of pulmonary and critical care at Johns Hopkins University. “All things being equal, a person exposed to air pollution would likely have a worse outcome if they were exposed to coronavirus.”


Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/climate/climate-pollution-coronavirus-lungs.html?algo=top_conversion&fellback=false&imp_id=412379994&imp_id=726837518&action=click&module=Most%20Popular&pgtype=Homepage

Out of interest I Googled "pollution Italy" because I recalled reading something about certain regions of Italy being very polluted, also environmentally contaminated. This study came up.

Air pollution exposure, cause-specific deaths and hospitalizations in a highly polluted Italian region

Abstract
Background
The Lombardy region in northern Italy ranks among the most air polluted areas of Europe. Previous studies showed air pollution short-term effects on all-cause mortality. We examine here the effects of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ?10 µm (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure on deaths and hospitalizations from specific causes, including cardiac, cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases.


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935116300834

As many of us will recall, Lombardy is the epicenter of the Italy outbreak:

Coronavirus death toll in Italy's Lombardy rises by around 416 in a day: source
1 MIN READ

ROME (Reuters) - The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in the northern region of Lombardy, the epicenter of Italy’s contagion, has risen by around 416 in a day to some 6,360, a source familiar with the data said on Sunday.

The daily deaths were down sharply from Saturday’s tally of 542, which was the second largest since the outbreak first emerged just over 5 weeks ago.

The number of cases in the region, which includes the country’s financial capital Milan, increased by some 1,592 to approximately 41,007, the source said.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-lombardy/coronavirus-death-toll-in-italys-lombardy-rises-by-around-416-in-a-day-source-idUSKBN21G0MU

I hope some epidemiologists are looking at whether there is a correlation between high air pollution and complications/deaths from the coronavirus (China, Spain, Iran?). Likewise, it would be interesting to know if countries that have fared better (Germany, to name one) have lower air pollution rates. I'm sure somebody has thought of this.

It may be nothing, but it just seems like an interesting area of inquiry.
March 21, 2020

Question: Could some peoples' immune systems be recognizing COVID-19?

You know these reports of people who are asymptomatic or report a 'slight cold"?

What accounts for the extreme differences among immune response, between a healthy 30 year old who gets severe pneumonia and someone who experiences few or no symptoms?

Is it possible that some people's' immune systems do recognize this virus and defeat it immediately, or don't even recognize it as a threat?

When a person has no symptoms, does that mean their immune system isn't even fighting it? Or does it mean their immune system fought it off so quickly that it never even rose to the level of becoming symptomatic?

Could we find out there are things some people (especially maybe younger people) have done that confer protection, like maybe having been exposed to animals, pets, or been exposed to certain viruses similar to this one in nature?

I know we can't know the answers for sure, but this aspect of the virus is interesting. I wish I knew more about how viruses work. Bats have thousands of viruses but don't get sick from them. Could some people who are not getting very sick already have had this virus, so it's not even perceived as an enemy?

March 21, 2020

You took the words out of my mouth when you compared it to 9/11.

It's hard to comprehend. I think my mind is doing some trick to protect me from deeply experiencing how dangerous and insane this is. It's not that I'm not terrified and depressed, but it should be a lot worse than it is. It's like watching "Apocalypse Now" for the first time, or something. I'm too busy taking it all in to know what I feel about it.

March 21, 2020

Speculation: Trump has this idea that if Ivanka is present at an event he's

less likely to be attacked, like she's some peace offering or has some magical power to calm people down, or maybe he thinks people won't attack him in front of his daughter. He's used her like this before.

Dr. Fauci is in an interestingly powerful position. He's the main reason 70% of the viewers watch these pressers. I think prior to the presser he strenuously objected to something Trump or Pompeo planned to say, resulting in the tension we saw. He isn't afraid of Trump but Trump needs him for his credibility.

But there were other things on Trump's mind, like negative press coverage, maybe something he saw on NBC or MSNBC that was triggered by Alexander.

Maybe Trump will fire Fauci at some point, but it would be the worst PR move ever.

March 20, 2020

Maybe, but I'm doubting it based on published timelines.

China didn't report a death until January 11.

It was identified and named in November, and it was formally announced the last day of December. The WHO definitely knew of the existence of COVID19 by the last day of December at the latest, and likely earlier, and notified countries around that time.

Accounts differ about when the WHO communicated with the United States. I've read New Year's Day and January 3.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html

DEC. 31

Chinese authorities treated dozens of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.
On Dec. 31, the government in Wuhan, China, confirmed that health authorities were treating dozens of cases. Days later, researchers in China identified a new virus that had infected dozens of people in Asia. At the time, there was no evidence that the virus was readily spread by humans. Health officials in China said they were monitoring it to prevent the outbreak from developing into something more severe.


JAN. 11

China reported its first death.
On Jan. 11, Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus, which had infected dozens of people. The 61-year-old man who died was a regular customer at the market in Wuhan, where the illness is believed to have originated, and he had previously been found to have abdominal tumors and chronic liver disease. The report of his death came just before one of China’s biggest holidays, when hundreds of millions of people travel across the country.




Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Modesto California
Home country: United States
Current location: Arizona
Member since: Mon Oct 27, 2008, 06:14 PM
Number of posts: 16,616
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