RandySF
RandySF's JournalPPP has Obama up 51-47 in Ohio.
PPP poll of Ohio just in
https://twitter.com/...
Obama up 51-47
last week was 49 - 48 Obama....
Can't you just FEEL the Mittmentum?!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/28/1151750/-OHIO-PPP-O-51-R-48
Dave Weigel's head must be exploding.
Even though the race for the White House remains very close with a little more than a week to go before Election Day, the advantage is still with President Obama. The latest Associated Press analysis of the race points out that Mitt Romney has much fewer paths to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. For now, it seems likely Obama will win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, while Romney would win 206 votes from 23 states, including North Carolina. The five states that could go either way, according to the AP, are Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
The New York Times’ Nate Silver agrees Obama is still the overall favorite in the election, noting his chances have increased with the latest batch of polls from battleground states that favor the president. In his analysis, Silver points out that a two- to three-point lead in state polling averages translates into a win in that state 82 percent of the time. Nationally though, it still looks like a dead heat with the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll giving Romney a one point lead with 49 percent.
Although Romney could technically win the White House without Ohio, it wouldn’t be easy.
“For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Obama ends up holding onto Ohio. Does that mean Romney is out of it? Not completely,” writes The New Yorker’s John Cassidy. “But to reach two hundred and seventy votes, he would need to turn around three or four blue states, which doesn’t seem likely without another swing in his direction nationally.”
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/10/28/obama_likely_to_win_electoral_college_path_to_270_electoral_votes.html
Miami Herald poll: Obama ahead of Romney by 9 Miami-Dade.
President Barack Obama, while besting Republican challenger Mitt Romney, also seems to have significantly less support among county voters today than he had in 2008, when a double-digit win in Miami-Dade helped him carry Florida.
The Herald’s poll of 625 likely voters, conducted by Jacksonville-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, addressed a series of local issues, including several proposed amendments to the Miami-Dade charter included on the Nov. 6 ballot. The voters were also asked about their opinions on the Obama administration’s Cuba policies. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/miami-herald-poll-obama-who-defeated-mccain-by-16-points-in-miami-dade-ahead-of-romney-by-9.html#storylink=cpy
AP: Obama poised to win the election.
AMES, Iowa (AP) — President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270.
Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
To be sure, anything can happen in the coming days to influence the Nov. 6 election.
http://news.yahoo.com/advantage-obama-hunt-270-electoral-votes-163526687--election.html
NV: Eight days of early/mail, voting in the books: Democratic lead in Clark at 44,000
We've settled into a pattern now in early voting in Clark County, with the Democrats gaining about 5,000 voters a day.
The total is now at a little more than 44,000 voters over the GOP, with six days remaining. Extrapolation gets the total to 70,000-plus by the end of early vorting, which is solid but not impenetrable, and also assumes the GOP doesn't do better in Week 2 or that the Democrats don't step it up even more.
The pattern in Clark has been the Democrats do better during the first week. In the wave election of 2008, the Democrats were remarkably consistent during the second week, gaining about 5,000 voters a day until the last day, when they gained 7,000. In 2010, as they were trying to save Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the Democrats were almost caught by the GOP on a couple of days. In '08, they led by 83,000 votes after two weeks; in 2010, it was 23,000 votes.
So the Democrats are coming out at 3 points above their registration and the Republicans at about 2 points. If you want to know why registration leads matter, that margin tells you everything. The Republicans clearly have put more effort into early voting this cycle, but will that increase their overall turnout edge?
Overall Clark turnout in now almost a third of registered voters. If turnout is 80 percent (as it was four years ago), that means 40 percent of the vote is in.
In Washoe, the Democrats won a small victory in Washoe on Saturday (by about 160 votes out of 7,200 cast). The Democrats now lead there by about 1,200 votes (absentees have not been updated, but the GOP is ahead by a few hundred votes). The Democrats don't need to win Washoe for the president to take Nevada. But if it's close to a dead heat or they lose by a few points, the Clark County firewall should offset the rural help for Mitt Romney.
http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/eight-days-earlymail-voting-books-democratic-lead-clark-44000#.UI1qu31U53U
DKos Nevada Early Voting Update, 10/28/12
or these reports, I will only be tracking Clark County and Washoe County. Together, they account for just shy of 90% of all registered voters in Nevada.
First let's start with the numbers from Clark County:
Here are the cumulative early voting figures:
Dems 119,908 (49.70%)
Reps 77,209 (32.00%)
Inds 44,133 (18.29%)
TOTAL 241,250
Here are the additional early ballots cast since the last daily report:
Dems +14,422
Reps +9,655
Inds +5,829
It was a nice recovery for our side. Republicans got to within about 3,700 votes in the last daily report. Here, Democrats bested Republicans by about 4,800 votes. Our numbers went up and their numbers went down.
Now, here are the cumulative figures, including mail-in ballots:
Dems 135,721 (49.09%)
Reps 91,172 (32.98%)
Inds 49,564 (17.93%)
TOTAL 276,457
As of this report, 32.46% of the 851,803 active voters in Clark County have voted. 2012 turnout is still running about 10 points higher percentage-wise than in 2008, although our advantage is not as big as in 2008. In 2008, for the entirety of the early voting period, Democrats led about 52% to 30% over Republicans in Clark County. Still, we are in a very solid position in Nevada's most populous county.
Now, let's take a look at Washoe County.
Here are the cumulative early voting numbers:
Dems 25,433 (42.48%)
Reps 24,235 (40.48%)
Inds 10,204 (17.04%)
TOTAL 59,872
Here are the new early votes since the last report:
Dems +2,991
Reps +2,833
Democrats outstripped Republicans in early votes for the third straight day in Washoe County. In the last report, we edged the Republicans by only a handful of ballots, but in this one we bested them by about 160 ballots. This is welcome news for a county in which Republicans actually outnumber Democrats by about 1,000 active voters.
Here are the cumulative figures, including mail-in ballots:
Dems 29,507
Reps 28,488
Inds 11,859
TOTAL 69,854
As of now, this constitutes 28.93% of the 241,459 active voters in Washoe County.
Overall, the numbers are better today than they were in the last report. Statewide, taking into account all early voting and mail-in ballots, Democrats lead Republicans 45% to 37%. In reality, Democrats lead Republicans among active voters by about seven percentage points, so we are still overperforming our actual advantage slightly.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/28/1151467/-Nevada-Early-Voting-Update-10-28-12
A DKos canvassing update from Cincinnati.
I wish to give a quick update from an Obama volunteer here in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) OH.
The volunteers of the east side of Cincinnati have been working very hard to canvass the neighborhoods of Hyde Park, Oakley, East Walnut Hills, Mount Lookout and Norwood over the past few months. (for those not familiar with the area, these neighborhoods were integral in Obama's majority of the county in 2008) I'm very excited to report that we have seen a 3 to 1 margin of support for Obama in this region, and many of our supporters have already voted and our turning out to volunteer for GOTV to finish our work and aid in other districts in the city.
Over the past two weeks, we have been pushing "undecided" voters. We have had overwhelming response to the last two debates and have found that Republican supporters are less enthusiastic about this election.
While it is close, the crucial areas of Cincinnati are once again rallying around Obama. I believe that we will deliver the county and Ohio for Obama in November. We are learning of support for Sherrod Brown, but the Democratic ticket correlation is not certain.
We could still certainly use the help here in Cincinnati for GOTV. Anyone close to the area who would like to volunteer, please respond to this post and I will make sure you are contacted.
Chris
Canvass Captain, Hyde Park
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/28/1151452/-Canvass-update-from-Hamilton-County-OH
Howard Fineman: DMR endorsement means Obama may lose the race.
Howard Fineman ?@howardfineman
It's not scientific or quantifiable by Nate Silver but Des Moines Register endorsement of Mitt first time it's' clear O may lose the race
https://twitter.com/howardfineman
Huge turnout today in Hillsborough County, FL.
Adam Smith ?@adamsmithtimes
Wow. More than 20k pple voted eary today so far in Hillsborough Co...In 08 biggest single day (11/1/08) was 18,736.
https://twitter.com/adamsmithtimes
I noticed that Nevada is blue on Chuck Todd's map.
I wonder what led him to concede that. He must have been kicking and screaming at the time.
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