October 27, 2012

Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) says the mother belongs in the home.

"This isn't the politically correct thing to say, but when we drove the mother out of the home into the workplace and replaced her with the television set, that was not a good thing."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/gops-bartlett-in-fight-for-political-survival-in-district-tailored-for-democratic-challenger/2012/10/26/c70e36a2-1fb2-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html

October 27, 2012

GMU Early voting updates for IA, NV, NC and CO.

IOWA
Iowa continues to firm up as more votes come in, now with 423,586 voted. Registered Republicans have been making gains on Democrats during the early voting period in terms of party registration. But on Monday of this week Republicans peaked among absentee ballot requests, at 30.9 percent. By Thursday, their share of ballot requests dropped to 30.8 percent. The Democrats have been losing ground, too, starting the week at 44.9 percent and ending it at 44.0 percent. The gain is among those who do not registered with a party, something I discuss below.

Romney needs to make up more ground than he has among the early vote -- or have a great showing on Election Day -- in order to win Iowa. Obama won the state by 9.5 percentage points in 2008, when registered Democrats were 46.9 percent of early voters and Republicans were 28.9 percent. Closing the early voting gap by a couple of points is not enough, especially since the level of early voting will likely exceed 2008. The Iowa early vote thus confirms the polling showing an Obama lead, perhaps smaller than 2008.

NEVADA
Currently, registered Democrats lead Republicans by 45.8 percent to 37.3 percent statewide. A tidy comparison to 2008 is unfortunately impossible. In 2008, the state reported only in-person voting without party registration. So, to infer something about the state of play in Nevada, we can examine the geographic distribution of support across counties, with the Democratic stronghold of Clark -- home of Las Vegas -- figuring most prominently.

So far in 2012, 263,782 Nevadans had voted in-person. In 2008 -- for the same number of days prior to the election -- 199,412 Nevadans had voted early in-person. In 2012, Clark County comprised 68.8 percent of those who had voted and in 2008 they were 68.4 percent. So, the geographic composition of the Nevada early electorate look similar to 2008, when Obama won the state by 12.2 percentage points.

The Nevada early vote thus points in the same direction we've seen in the polls, which consistently show Obama leads.


NORTH CAROLINA
The North Carolina early vote looks good for Obama at first glance. Over 1.1 million North Carolinians have voted, and registered Democrats are 50.3 percent of these voters while Republicans are 30.8 percent.

Republicans have improved their standing. During the entire early period in 2008, Democrats were 51.4 percent of early voters and Republicans were 30.1 percent. And at the same point in time prior to the election in 2008, Democrats were 55.9 percent of early voters and Republicans were 27.2 percent.

It is possible that in North Carolina -- or any state -- these changes are simply a rearranging of furniture as people vote at different times. But, with the polls showing a narrow Romney lead on average in a state that Obama won by a razor-thin margin of 0.3 percentage points in 2008, the most reasonable conclusion is that the early voting confirms Romney has a small North Carolina lead.

Unlike Iowa for Romney, there is more opportunity for Obama to turn things around. The early voting volume is much higher than 2008, with 210,909 more people voting at the relative same point in time. So, his current lead, although smaller than 2008, may be more meaningful to the election outcome. Also, the state's "one stop" voting, where an unregistered voter can register and vote at an in-person early voting location, offers Obama the opportunity to covert more non-voters -- from a polling perspective -- to already voted.


COLORADO
As of Friday, 626,097 Coloradoans have voted. The party registration looks good for Romney with 36.1 percent registered Democrats voting to date and 39.0 percent Republicans. In comparison, in 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans 37.7 percent to 35.9 percent, when Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points. The early vote thus points to a closer election than 2008, which corroborates the polling showing a close race.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-results_b_2027200.html

October 27, 2012

Unless Meat Loaf said something nasty about Obama, I can't stop liking him.

Look, we all have to accept that Obama was never going to get 100% of the vote. Clint Eastwood was off his rocker at the convention, but I can't stop liking him as a person or an actor. Same goes with Meat Loaf. He gave us one of the greatest rock albums of all time, and as far I know he's not an asshole. So unless he said something at the Romney event that disqualifies him as a person, I won't stop liking him or his music over an endorsement.

October 27, 2012

Committees Leaving Maine as King Looks Poised for Win

Senate Republicans have given up on forcing a close race in Maine for former Independent Gov. Angus King, backing off a bid launched in late summer as declining GOP hopes in other races undid hopes Republicans would take over the Senate.

With King apparently cruising to victory, both Senate campaign committees are pulling out of the race, according to sources in both parties.

After spending nearly $2 million in September on ads attacking King, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has not advertised in Maine since October 16, as Politico reported Thursday. GOP aides said polling showing King holding a sizable lead over Republican Secretary of State Charlie Summers drove the NRSC decision to cut its losses.

"Republicans increasingly don't see this race going in the right direction," said a GOP campaign strategist who noted the NRSC push in Maine caused the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to spend in the race on ads hitting Summers.


http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/10/both-committees.php

October 27, 2012

Insiders: Democrats More Confident in Ground Game

In assessing the all-important "ground game" in the presidential race, National Journal's Political Insiders were split. But Democrats were by far more confident of their own party's mastery of the nuts and bolts of field organizing than Republicans.

A full 98 percent of Democrats believed they had the edge in this arena, while six out of ten Republicans said the same for their own team's mastery of the campaign art.

"Huge Democratic advantage in the ground game may be the game changer," said one Democrat.

Many Insiders of both stripes referenced the fact that Democrats had more time to build a formidable organization in swing states while Mitt Romney was still busy staving off primary rivals. Obama also had the advantage of test-running a successful operation in 2008.



http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/10/in-assessing-th.php

October 27, 2012

ABC News is getting frustrated with Ohio.

What’s Going on in Ohio?

Or, why does Obama continue to hold a small lead in that state while national polls have the race a dead heat.

The three most recent Ohio polls (CNN, Time, and CBS/Quinnipiac) show President Obama with a lead of 4-5 points. Meanwhile, the latest ABC/Washington Post national tracking poll has the race a dead heat, with Romney at 49 percent and Obama at 48 percent.
How is that possible?

Three things: Democrats, white voters, and men.


http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/whats-going-on-in-ohio/

October 27, 2012

High early voting turnout reported in Chicago, suburbs

Those early voting figures continue to be reallllly peppy in the Chicago area, particularly in suburban Cook County, with officials predicting they'll match their numbers from the presidential year of 2008 and its super-heavy turnout.

With the first week of early voting drawing to an end, County Clerk David Orr's office reports that 67,280 had voted as of midday Friday. In comparison, 42,800 voted in the first five days of 2008, in which early voting began a week earlier in October, and 63,000 in the second week of '08, which corresponds to the same week this year. Either way, it's up, perhaps driven by three very hot congressional races in Chicago's suburbs.

When it's all over, Mr. Orr predicts the combination of early and mail voting will match the 2008 numbers.

In the city, 64,746 had voted as of Thursday night, with lines at many polling places this morning, according to Board of Elections spokesman Jim Allen. New records have been hit, he added, with totals up 18 to 51 percent, depending on whether you use the first or second week of '08 as the comparison.



http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20121026/BLOGS02/121029829

October 26, 2012

Slate's Dave Weigel is a fan of "unskewed polls"

daveweigel ?@daveweigel
Most likely outcome right now: Dems hold Senate, lose WH and House. (2nd) worst outcome for them. http://slate.me/RnwuPT

And how does he know?

daveweigel ?@daveweigel
Unskewed polls, narrative, trajectory. RT @JohnSilencio: @daveweigel Most likely that they lose WH? What are you basing this off of?


https://twitter.com/daveweigel

October 26, 2012

I thought Romney was about to make a major economic speech.

This is just campaigning.