November 1, 2019

FWIW Virginia: "Races We're Watching on Election Night"

GOP Leadership – Dels. Kirk Cox (HD-66), Tim Hugo (HD-40), and Chris Jones (HD-76)

House Speaker Kirk Cox and Appropriations Chairman Chris Jones both found themselves in redrawn districts this year after a judge threw out Virginia’s illegal racially-gerrymandered map, priming them to be top targets this year. Democrats have invested heavily in both of these races and have been targeting both GOP candidates with negative digital ads way back in July, before either Cox or Jones could introduce themselves to their new districts.

Cox entered the last week and a half of the election with just over half the cash on hand of his Democratic opponent, Sheila Bynum-Coleman, while Chris Jones was outraised in October – but he did have a cash on hand advantage as of October 24GOP House Caucus Chairman Tim Hugo was the last Republican standing in Northern Virginia after pulling out a 106-vote squeaker in 2017, and that was with a significant spending advantage. Hugo’s district gave 59% of its vote to Tim Kaine in last year’s US Senate race, and Hugo is being outraised and outspent this election cycle. His Democratic opponent, Dan Helmer, brought in over $840,000 in October and had a nearly 2:1 cash advantage as of October 24, with $417,709 in the bank compared to Hugo’s $218,524.

Redrawn Districts – Dels. Chris Stolle (HD-83), David Yancey (HD-94), Barry Knight (HD-81), OPEN (HD-96)

Cox and Jones aren’t the only Republicans fighting for their lives in new districts, though. Republican Delegates Chris Stolle, David Yancey, and Barry Knight all received new Democratic-leaning districts after the court-ordered redistricting.

It’s difficult to see any path to victory for David Yancey, who finished in a literal tie with Democrat Shelly Simonds in 2017, winning back his seat on a coin flip. Simonds, back for a rematch with Yancey, is now running in a strongly Democratic-leaning district and she outraised Yancey in October. However, Yancey does have a cash on hand advantage as of October 24.


Senate Retirements – OPEN (SD-7), OPEN (SD-13)

The entire Virginia State Senate is only up for re-election once every four years, so many incumbent GOP State Senators were shielded from the suburban realignment that decimated House Republicans in 2017. Democrats only need to pick up one seat to take control of the State Senate and are favored to do so on Tuesday, in part because of two open-seat races in now Democratic-leaning districts.

In SD 7, Democratic Del. Cheryl Turpin is running against Republican Jen Kiggans for the seat vacated by long-time incumbent Frank Wagner, who won the seat in 2015 after the most expensive Senate race in Virginia history. Every statewide Democrat carried the Virginia Beach-based district in 2017 and Tim Kaine carried 56% of the district’s vote in 2018. Turpin has outraised Kiggans significantly throughout the election, including throughout the month of October. This race looks good for Democrats, but it might be close on Election Night.


Possible Upsets – Sen. Chase (SD-11), Del. Freitas (HD-30)

Every election cycle inevitably has a handful of otherwise uncompetitive races that turn competitive after a candidate does something detrimental to their campaign – and this year is no different. In SD 11, GOP incumbent Amanda Chase’s long history of controversy, including running ads threatening to “shoot down” gun groups and calling rape victims “naive”, has turned a normally Republican-leaning district into a potentially competitive battleground. Democrats haven’t invested in this race at the same rate they have in other Senate races, but Democrat Amanda Pohl has matched Chase’s fundraising nearly dollar-for-dollar. Chase had just a roughly $20,000 cash on hand advantage as of October 24.



https://bluevirginia.us/2019/10/fwiw-virginia-races-were-watching-on-election-night

November 1, 2019

Terry McAuliffe stepped up when Va. Dems looked doomed. They bounced back, but he's not quitting.

PETERSBURG, VA. — Terry McAuliffe is running. Not for president. Not for Virginia governor again. Just plain running — down the street, alongside a Democrat he’s trying to pull over the finish line in the state’s Nov. 5 election.

He and Sheila ­Bynum-Coleman, who’s running for the House of Delegates, are supposed to be riding in a blue pickup as part of Virginia State University’s homecoming parade. But Mc­Auliffe, in dress shirt, windbreaker and slacks, was not content to wave. So they are jogging, shaking hands along the route. “Vote for Sheila here!” he bellows while trotting.

McAuliffe is playing a major role in Virginia’s pivotal General Assembly election — in a hands-on way that’s unusual for an ex-governor. He stepped up early this year when his successor and fellow Democrat, Gov. Ralph Northam, seemed sidelined by a blackface scandal.

But McAuliffe’s barnstorming — logging 122 campaign appearances for Virginia Democrats in cities, suburbs and rural districts as of Wednesday — is fueling speculation that he will run for governor again in 2021. He did not have that option when his term ended in January 2018 because Virginia prohibits governors from serving back-to-back terms. But the state puts no limit on nonconsecutive terms.

As things have turned out, Northam recovered from scandal better than anticipated. His response to a May 31 mass shooting in Virginia Beach — calling a special session on gun control that Republicans swiftly shut down — teed up Democrats’ most compelling argument for flipping the General Assembly blue. Though Northam’s fundraising has lagged, he’s on track to donate $1.5 million to Democrats by Election Day and is back on the stump for candidates.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/terry-mcauliffe-stepped-up-when-va-dems-looked-doomed-they-bounced-back-but-hes-not-quitting/2019/10/31/20855980-f50e-11e9-a285-882a8e386a96_story.html

November 1, 2019

Democrats launch redistricting blitz with offensive to dominate Virginia

WOODBRIDGE, Va. — National Democratic groups are spending unprecedented sums in the race for control of Virginia’s state legislature — the first test in a yearlong campaign to maximize the party’s influence in the states before the next round of redistricting begins in 2021.

After winning the governor's mansion in 2017, Democrats are shooting for total control in Richmond. And they see next week's elections as an early chance at redemption after a 2010 drubbing that left them boxed out of the map-making process in nearly every key state.

“I was in New York yesterday for a pitch to national donors — everybody wants to play in Virginia. They understand the significance,” former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a long-time national party power-broker, said last week. “Virginia’s future for the next decade is going to be determined this November.”
Story Continued Below

Cash-flush Democratic power players have flooded the commonwealth with upwards of $10 million, according to an analysis of outside spending. Among the top spenders: Everytown for Gun Safety, a Michael Bloomberg-aligned group, with $2.5 million; the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party's state-level campaign arm, with $1.3 million; the League of Conservation Voters with $1.5 million; and EMILY’s List with $2.1 million, its single largest investment ever in a state’s legislative races.



https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/31/democrats-virginia-redistricting-063175

November 1, 2019

Democrats receive suspicious packages after impeachment vote

Several House Democrats in battleground districts complained Thursday that a political stunt by Republicans intended to warn them they would not be in office long because of impeachment instead ended up wasting the time of Capitol Police after aides complained of receiving suspicious packages.

The National Republican Congressional Committee sent packing boxes to the Capitol Hill offices of the Democrats, most of whom flipped Republican districts in 2018 and are expected to have competitive campaigns to keep them next year.

A package addressed to Virginia Rep. Jennifer Wexton from the NRCC said “Get Packing!” Other recipients included Reps. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania.

Some congressional staffers, despite seeing they were from the NRCC, were still wary of the packages and contacted police, as they are trained to do with suspicious packages.

The NRCC, responding to a Huffington Post reporter’s tweet of an NRCC package at Lamb’s office, tweeted: “We know Democrats love investigations but why are they looking a gift horse in the mouth? These boxes will be useful next November!”



https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/democrats-facing-tough-races-receive-suspicious-packages-impeachment-vote