Nate Silver: Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is now telling reporters that she is at risk of losing Iowa to Bernie Sanders in the February caucuses. One ought to view these stories a bit cynically: It almost always benefits a candidate to lower expectations in Iowa, and these warnings are often designed to activate lethargic supporters. At the same time, the campaign press loves stories that suggest it’ll have a competitive Democratic primary rather than a walkover.

But in this case, Clinton’s campaign is probably right: Sanders could win Iowa. He’s up to 30 percent of the vote there, according to Huffington Post Pollster’s estimate. What’s more, Sanders could also win New Hampshire, where he’s at 32 percent of the vote. Nationally, by contrast, Sanders has just 15 percent of the vote and has been gaining ground on Clinton only slowly.

One theory to explain these numbers is that Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats are early adopters of Sanders’s populist-left message. It isn’t a bad theory. These states have received the most intense campaign activity so far, and Sanders’s name recognition is higher among Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire — perhaps about 70 percent or 80 percent, based on recent polls — than it is nationally. If the theory is true, Sanders’s numbers will improve nationally as Democrats in other states become as familiar with him as those in Iowa and New Hampshire are.

There’s another theory, however, that probably does more to explain Sanders’s standing in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it’s really simple. Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are really liberal and really white, and that’s the core of Sanders’s support.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

Dinesh D'Souza Circulates Fake Photo Of Hillary Clinton With Confederate Flag

Conservative author and convicted felon Dinesh D'Souza usually reserves his Twitter feed for promoting odd contests about himself or cracking incomprensible and racist jokes, but on Tuesday he focused on circulating a fake image of Hillary Clinton photographed with a Confederate flag.

"Look closely at this Hillary photo; isn't that a Confederate flag behind her on the bookshelf?" D'Souza tweeted, above a black and white photo showing a young Clinton with a Confederate flag displayed nearby.

The image was almost immediately debunked as a doctored version of a Getty photo taken of Clinton while she was a student at Wellesley, in which no such flag appears.

It's unclear whether D'Souza edited the image himself, whether he knew it was fake, or whether he will believe those who inform him that it is fake (he has yet to address replies correcting him on the photo).


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/dinesh-souza-fake-hillary-clinton-photo

Elodie Yung To Play Elektra In 'Daredevil' Season 2

“Yung will play Elektra, a mysterious woman from Matt Murdock’s past whose dangerous and exotic ways may be more than he can handle. The first season of “Marvel’s Daredevil” made reference to Elektra, but now Yung will portray one of Daredevil’s fan-favorite characters. Elektra marks the most recent major addition to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, as she will join Jon Bernthal as Frank Castle in the upcoming season of the Netflix Original Series “Marvel’s Daredevil.”

“After a worldwide search, we found in Elodie the perfect actress to embody both Elektra’s impressive and deadly physicality, as well as her psychological complexity,” said Executive Producer and Head of Marvel Television, Jeph Loeb. “Paired with Charlie as Matt Murdock, the two will bring one of the most beloved and tumultuous comic book relationships to life with all the accompanying sparks and spectacular action sequences the show is known for.”

“Marvel’s Daredevil” is Executive Produced by Doug Petrie (“American Horror Story,” “Buffy The Vampire Slayer”), Marco Ramirez (“Marvel’s Daredevil,” “DaVinci’s Demons”) and Drew Goddard (“Cabin in the Woods,” “Lost”), along with Marvel TV’s Jeph Loeb (“Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.,” “Marvel’s Jessica Jones.”)

”Marvel’s Daredevil” is produced by Marvel Television in association with ABC Studios. Season one of “Marvel’s Daredevil” is now streaming on Netflix.



http://heroichollywood.com/home-1/2015/7/7/elodie-yung-to-play-electra-in-daredevil-season-2

Gun used in pier killing had been stolen from federal agent

The gun used to kill a 32-year-old woman on San Francisco’s waterfront was stolen from a federal agent in a car burglary in June, sources close to the investigation said Tuesday.

The .40-caliber pistol was stolen from the agent not long before Kathryn Steinle was shot to death July 1 at Pier 14 on the Embarcadero, said one source, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk about the case publicly.

Other sources said the weapon was apparently not the agent’s official gun. It was reported stolen in an auto burglary in the downtown area, they said.

Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez was charged with murder and other crimes in connection with Steinle’s killing. Lopez-Sanchez, who is suspected of being in the U.S. without documentation and had been deported five times to his native Mexico, pleaded not guilty Tuesday.


http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Gun-used-in-pier-killing-had-been-stolen-from-6371602.php

Here is how the Democratic Primaries will shake out.

Bernie will do well in New England, win a handful of Midwestern states (maybe even Iowa) and win Oregon, Washington or both. But that's as far as he gets. Hillary will sweep the South on through the rest of country. Game over. There's no probable scenario where Bernie wins. Sorry, he's a great guy but it's just not going to happen.

Trump Retweets Ugly Remark About Jeb Bush's Mexican Wife

With a retweet, immigration hardliner Donald Trump let his followers know on the Fourth of July that fellow Republican presidential contender Jeb Bush "has to like Mexican illegals because of his wife."

The real estate mogul shared the tweet from one of his followers, a habit that's gotten him in trouble before. It appeared to be live on Twitter for a full day before it was deleted, according to Hollywood news site TheWrap.

The timing of the retweet was notable in that the real estate mogul admitted earlier Saturday that he was taken aback by the "severe" reaction from the business community to his comments on Mexican immigrants, whom he'd labelled "rapists" in his presidential announcement speech.

"They're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime. They're rapists," Trump said during that speech, referring to immigrants crossing the border from Mexico. "And some, I assume, are good people."


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-jeb-bush-wife

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'Manhattan' to return for second season.

Last year, WGN debuted Manhattan, a series about the scientists involved with the making of the atomic bomb. That series went on to become a success with both audiences and critics.

Now, this year, Manhattan takes on its second season, which will probably bring more drama, stress and scientific breakthroughs to the residents of Los Alamos, one of the key sites of the Manhattan Project.

Not only does the show cover a historical event, but it gives us insight into what life was like for those who lived on the project's top secret base in Los Alamos, New Mexico. The series is a drama at its heart, but because of its subject matter, it also often feels like science fiction. There are many reasons to watch the series, and we covered four of the most important last year.

Critics also love Manhattan and the series is likely to pick up some Emmy nominations when those are made on July 16. Series stars Olivia Williams and John Benjamin Hickey could pick up best actress and best actor in a drama, respectively, with the series possibly getting a best drama nod.