NC-13: Ted Budd moves to Tossup

his matchup may be the biggest culture clash in the country: Budd is a gun store owner and first-term Freedom Caucus member who homeschools his children in rural Davie County. Wealthy Democratic philanthropist Kathy Manning was the chief fundraiser for Greensboro's $78 million performing arts center scheduled to open next year. If ever there was a race that's "all about that base," this is it.

It's also behaving like open seat: Budd remains relatively unknown and undefined after winning this seat in 2016 with just 20 percent of the vote in the crowded GOP primary and some help from the Club for Growth. And even though the district voted for President Trump 53 percent to 44 percent, Greensboro may be energized and there aren't compelling statewide races to turn out rural GOP voters.

Manning has outraised Budd $1.9 million to $1.2 million and has aired ads touting her opposition to Nancy Pelosi for speaker in an effort to pre-empt attacks on her as a liberal elitist. Her extensive list of political donations over the years should provide fodder for Budd, but he'll need a bailout from GOP outside groups. Several private polls on both sides show Budd stuck in the low-to-mid 40s, a dangerous place to be.


KATHY MANNING






https://kathymanning2018.com/

CO-06: Mike Coffman moves to Lean Democrat

A New York Times/Siena poll taken last week showed Coffman trailing attorney and former Army Ranger Jason Crow 51 percent to 40 percent. Republicans admit Coffman has been badly outspent in the past month, but insist the race is much closer and believe a new ad that accuses "trial lawyer" Crow of representing a client who defrauded a veterans' hospital will turn things in Coffman's favor.

As his suburban Denver district has gotten bluer, the 63-year old Coffman has had to adapt to survive. He's learned Spanish and has even held fundraisers with the district's Eritrean and Ethiopian communities. But he's never had to run in this hostile a political climate, and polls suggest the bottom may be dropping out for the GOP in professional suburbs. There's still plenty of time left, but Coffman is behind today.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-five-more-races-move-towards-democrats



JASON CROW






https://jasoncrowforcongress.com

Did Avenatti just rattle the Republicans' nerves

I was mostly out of timiuch this morning and it sounds like Michael Avenatti’s client sent the Republicans scurrying.

Cook Political Report moves five House districts in our direction

NY-14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez meets with assault victims in Queens

TX-SD05: Texas Republican under investigation for sexual misconduct

The University of Texas at Austin is looking into an accusation that state Sen. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, sent sexually explicit material to a graduate student, according to the Austin American-Statesman in a Tuesday report that cited unnamed UT officials. A source with knowledge of the matter confirmed to The Texas Tribune that an investigation has been opened.

A spokesperson for Schwertner said the lawmaker "categorically denies knowledge of" the allegation. A UT-Austin spokesperson said "the university does not discuss ongoing investigations." The Statesman has not seen the materials, which reportedly include a graphic photo and text message that were sent to the student after she met Schwertner at an on-campus event.

Tom Holloway, the Schwertner spokesperson, said in a statement that the senator "only became aware of this allegation when contacted by the media late this afternoon. The Senator is eager to cooperate with the University of Texas and hopes to make clear he played no part in the behavior described.”

Gary Susswein, the UT-Austin spokesperson, said that "the University of Texas takes all allegations of wrongdoing seriously and encourages members of the campus community to report them immediately. We strive to investigate complaints thoroughly and quickly while respecting the confidentiality of students and employees who file complaints and those accused of wrongdoing. UT is strongly committed to fostering a safe campus environment and to providing needed support and resources to victims."

A spokesperson for Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said Tuesday evening that Patrick learned of the allegation earlier this afternoon and “will await the outcome of the UT investigation.”


https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/25/university-texas-sexual-misconduct-allegation-charles-schwertner/



MEG WALSH FOR TX-SD05





https://www.megwalshfortexas.com

National Democrats are buying ads for OK-GOV and KS-GOV

Tweet of the Day

AZ-SEN: McSally allies mock Sinema family for being homeless with whopping $13 in account

These under-the-radar candidates who could break out if conditions get much worse for Republicans