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Gender: Male
Hometown: Detroit Area, MI
Home country: USA
Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 02:53 PM
Number of posts: 36,982

About Me

Partner, father and liberal Democrat. I am a native Michigander living in San Francisco who is a citizen of the world.

Journal Archives

57 percent of young voters say Ginsburg's death makes it 'more important' to vote for Democrats

Fifty-seven percent of battleground state voters aged 18 to 35 said Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death makes it more important to vote for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and Democratic Senate candidates, according to a new NextGen America poll.

An overwhelming 91 percent of Democratic women, as well as 83 percent of Democratic men, said they agree with the statement, based on results of a survey the progressive group shared with The Hill on Tuesday

“The Supreme Court vacancy is hitting home how many of our rights are actually at stake in this election and with this court,” said NextGen executive director Ben Wessel.

The focus on the make-up of the court is making young Democrats “even more fired up” to vote for Biden as the party fears possible judicial roll backs to health care and abortion care, Wessel added.


TX: BBVA MLS Stadium to be used as voting location

BBVA Stadium, the home of the Houston Dash and Dynamo, will be used as a voting location for the upcoming presidential election, the teams and the Harris County Clerk office announced Tuesday.

The voting location will be open only on Election Day - Nov. 3 - from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and will be open for any registered Harris County voter.

Voting booths will be located at the Audi Sport Club on the west side of the stadium, serving as the entrance of the vote center.

“Voting is the most sacred act of our democracy and our actions to preserve, support and protect it, especially during a pandemic, are essentially to engage in the process,” Dash and Dynamo executive vice president and general manager Juan Rodriguez said. “By working with our local election officials in Harris County, we’re honored that we can open up BBVA Stadium to create a safe place for our neighbors, friends and family members to cast a ballot and share in the future of our community.”


WI-03: Ron Kind moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' Democratic

Donald Trump carried this traditionally blue western Wisconsin district by five points — shocking even Republicans, who didn't bother fielding a nominee against Kind. This year, GOP retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden raised more money by June than the 2018 GOP nominee spent all cycle and private polling is close enough that last week, the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund jumped in.

Kind, a self-branded "New Democrat" and a high school football star in La Crosse, has now held this seat for 24 years and GOP ads call him a "liberal career politician. But he had $3.1 million in cash on hand in June and is taking the race seriously enough that he's attacking Van Orden over a 2015 memoir in which he recollects exposing a male lieutenant's genitals to two female junior officers. Trump may win here again, but Kind remains the favorite.


SC-01: Joe Cunningham moves from 'Tossup' to 'Lean Democratic'

Republicans regarded Cunningham as a fluke when Rep. Mark Sanford's primary loss fractured the GOP and allowed the first-time candidate to prevail by a point in 2018. But Cunningham's aw-shucks charm (he was stopped once for trying to bring a six pack onto the House floor) and massive fundraising head start has helped him build a lead over GOP nominee Nancy Mace, the first woman to graduate from the Citadel.

Over the summer, Cunningham dominated the Charleston airwaves with ads playing up his bipartisanship, including footage of GOP Gov. Henry McMaster praising him for his work on an offshore drilling ban. Meanwhile, Mace's message boils down to "sending a new Nancy." But she's not getting much of a lift from the top of the ticket: after Trump carried the seat by 13 points in 2016, at least two internal polls show the presidential race tied here.


PA-17: Conor Lamb moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' Democratic

At a time when most GOP challengers are struggling to gain traction and attention, retired Army Ranger Sean Parnell is a notable exception. The Fox News contributor and "Outlaw Platoon" author has been singled out for support by the president and got a prime RNC speaking role, helping raise more than $1.5 million and keep pace with Lamb, a fellow veteran, on the Pittsburgh airwaves.

Lamb, a Marine veteran, received a dream district in 2018 court-ordered remap and beat low-key GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus by 12 points that fall. But private polls show Parnell running more competitively than Rothfus, and Democrats are also worried about the potential for thousands of suburban Democrats' mail ballots to be rejected due to inexperience and error. Even so, Lamb remains the favorite to win a second term.


NY-19: Antonio Delgado moves from 'Lean' to 'Likely' Democratic

Despite this rural Hudson Valley district having voted for Trump 50 percent to 43 percent in 2016, GOP Army veteran Kyle Van De Water got a late start and trailed Delgado 750-to-1 in cash on hand at the last FEC report. Now it's almost October and Republicans still haven't shown any interest in the race. Delgado is well ahead and it's looking like another big missed GOP opportunity.


NJ-03: Andy Kim moves from 'Tossup' to 'Lean Democrat'

n January, Republicans coaxed wealthy construction executive David Richter to switch from the 2nd to 3rd District in hopes he would unload his personal fortune to try to defeat Kim. Instead, it's almost October and Richter still hasn't gone on air, while the DCCC and Kim are lambasting his company for being "fined $500,000 for accounting fraud." Kim is ahead, and it's getting late for Richter to close the gap.


ME-02: Jared Golden moves from 'Lean' to 'Likely' Democratic

Colby College released a survey showing Golden up 56 percent to 33 percent, the second poll in as many weeks to show him ahead by at least 19 points. Even Republicans admit that Golden's ads playing up his support for union jobs at Bath Iron Works, guns and lobstermen are effective, and GOP former state Rep. Dale Crafts is being badly outspent. This Trump-carried seat no longer looks competitive.


AR-02: French Hill moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' Republican

Initially, Democratic state Sen. Joyce Elliott's campaign looked symbolic, considering she lost this seat by 20 points in 2010 and GOP Rep. French Hill survived the 2018 "blue wave" by six points. But an early September Hendrix College poll shows Hill ahead just 48 percent to 46 percent, a finding that's subsequently been backed up by polling conducted privately by both parties.

Republicans fret that Elliott took advantage of the cheap Little Rock market in August to build a positive image as a public school teacher, while the wealthy Hill waited until mid-September to begin defining her for voting for tax hikes in the legislature. Now, House Republicans' Super PAC is jumping in. This is Arkansas's most suburban seat, and Trump isn't providing Hill the lift he did when he won by 11 points in 2016.


Electoral College Rating Changes: Ohio and Iowa Move to Toss Up

In mid-June, we moved both Iowa and Ohio from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. At the time, we noted that while the polls were looking shaky for Pres. Trump, they were also catching him at what could be his lowest point of the cycle.

"We'll know soon enough if this trough is temporary," I wrote back on June 19, "or if he's done permanent damage to his re-election prospects among one of his most solid constituencies: white, working-class voters."

Well, it's late September, and polling in both states suggests that the Trump slump is real.

Back in mid-June, Biden's average lead in Ohio, according to FiveThirtyEight aggregator, was 2.6 percent. Today, Trump looks better, but only slightly so. He trails Biden by an average of 1.1 percent. In Iowa, Trump's narrow 0.6 percent lead over Biden in mid-June has barely budged. The latest FiveThirtyEight average puts it at 0.8 percent.

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