RandySF
RandySF's JournalUPI already preparing Begich's political obituary.
JUNEAU, Alaska, Nov. 4 (UPI) -- Mark Begich, the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate in more than a quarter-century, xxxxxxx his bid for a second term Tuesday.
Republican Dan Sullivan, a former state attorney general and natural resources commissioner, xxxxx an election in which both candidates were awash with outside money.
In a state with about 750,000 residents, Begich reported raising $10.4 million as of Oct. 15 and Sullivan $7.1 million, the Center for Responsive Politics said. The parties' national senatorial campaign committees kicked in about $4.6 million each.
There was also the Put Alaska First PAC, supporting Begich to the tune of $9.9 million, the League of Conservation Voters $1.9 million and the Alaska SalmonPAC putting up $1.8 million. On the other side, American Crossroads kicked in $4.4 million for Sullivan, the Chamber of Commerce $1.3 million and Crossroads GPS $3.1 million.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2014/11/02/PREWRITE-Alaska-Mark-Begich-D-v-Dan-Sullivan-R/2361414724545/#ixzz3HzQc9Soa
MA: Democrats’ turnout effort in high gear
Democrats have targeted efforts on midsized cities such as Brockton and Fitchburg and on college campuses, reminding independents and Democrats who cast ballots for President Obama but skipped past midterm races to vote on Tuesday.
“We believe a lot of this fight is going to be in the gateway cities,” said Doug Rubin, Coakley’s chief strategist. “There is an opportunity for higher turnout in those areas. That, in particular, is going to be an important indicator of how things go on Election Day.”
At the same time, Democrats are working to drive up their traditional advantage in liberal strongholds such as Brookline, Cambridge, and Newton. Last week, for example, Patrick and Donald Berwick, a liberal favorite who placed third in the September Democratic primary, held a rally in Concord.
Labor leaders are making their own push to avoid a repeat of the 2010 Senate race, when 49 percent of union members voted for Brown compared with 46 percent for Coakley, labor’s endorsed candidate, according to a post-election poll done by the AFL-CIO.
Steve Tolman, president of the state AFL-CIO, said labor sent 1,000 members to call and knock on the doors of fellow union members last weekend.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/11/03/martha-coakley-slips-behind-polls-democrats-pin-their-hopes-well-oiled-get-out-vote-machine/9yPwt4y6djGLZIv78KdQsO/story.html
SCOTUS to decide if pregnant workers can be forced off the job.
WASHINGTON -- When Peggy Young became pregnant in 2006, she had every intention of continuing to work delivering packages for UPS in Maryland. At the urging of the company's occupational health manager, Young visited her doctor to obtain a note detailing any work restrictions she might need. Her doctor recommended that she not lift more than 20 pounds for the first 20 weeks of her pregnancy.
Based on the doctor's note, UPS placed Young on unpaid leave, an all too common experience for women nationwide. Although UPS often put workers with other conditions on light duty, it told Young that such accommodations wouldn't apply to an "off-the-job" condition such as her pregnancy. Not only would she lose her income, she would have to suddenly switch to her husband's health insurance plan, changing the hospitals at which she could potentially give birth.
"I wanted to work," Young told The Huffington Post. "I all but begged for them to let me work."
The unborn child Young was carrying in 2006 is now a 7-year-old girl named Trinity. Young no longer works for UPS, but she's still fighting the shipping giant for denying her accommodations while she was pregnant. Young sued UPS alleging discrimination, and her case, Young v. UPS, is now before the Supreme Court, with oral arguments expected in December.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/31/pregnancy-discrimination-supreme-court_n_6078416.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular
New Poll Shows GOP's Roberts Falling Behind In Kansas Senate Race
Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) is slipping behind independent Greg Orman in the Kansas Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll released Saturday.
Fox News gave Orman a small lead over Roberts, 44 percent to 43 percent. That's a significant reversal from the pollster's last survey of the race in early October, which showed Roberts with a 5-point lead, 44 percent to 39 percent.
The poll, conducted from Oct. 28-30, surveyed 907 likely voters. Its margin of error is 3 points.
Most polling has suggested a neck-and-neck race in Kansas heading into Election Day. According to TPM's PollTracker average, Orman is currently up, 44.3 percent to Roberts' 42 percent.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/fox-news-poll-kansas-senate-race-nov-2
Michael McDonald: Charlie Crist is headed for a big win.
A simple reading of Florida's early vote is that Crist is poised for a big win. In 2010, Gov. Scott squeezed out a +1.1 point win while Republicans enjoyed a +12.7 registration advantage in the early vote. As of Saturday, the Republican advantage stands at +4.1.
There is a an important complication. In 2012, Florida adopted a quasi-permanent absentee status, whereby voters who vote a mail ballot can choose to automatically receive a mail ballot the next election. The Obama campaign, anticipating a reduction of in-person early voting due to a change that year, encouraged their supporters to vote a mail ballot; a good number automatically received a mail ballot in 2014. The consequence of this law is evident in the mail ballots. In 2010, 1,124,431 Floridians cast a mail ballot; in 2014, the number is already 1,733,014. Republicans led mail ballots in 2010 52% to 34%, they lead in 2014 by a narrower 45% to 37%.
In-person early vote is up more modestly, too, 1,184,395 have voted early Saturday with Sunday voting remaining in a few of the larger counties compared with 1,042,759 in 2010. Republicans led the 2010 in-person early vote 45% to 40%, Democrats lead 2014 42% to 41%.
The polls show a narrow lead for Crist over Scott. The outstanding question from the early vote is how many Democrats who voted in 2010 on Election Day have shifted to casting mail ballots in 2014. The in-person early voting, which seems of comparable magnitude, may thus be a better indicator of a Crist lead. I thus believe Crist indeed leads, but would have more confidence in my belief if not for the law change.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-pulling-into_b_6091452.html
Micheal McDonald: Early voting data indicates that Senate is still up for grabs.
More than 17 million people have voted in the 2014 election. As the early vote pulls into the station, it is time to interpret the meaning of these numbers. I track early voting statistics here.
It's now possible to see how states are faring in their early vote compared to 2010. I've found the early vote is a decent calibration tool in addition to comparable past elections, to draw upon when making national and state turnout forecasts. Nationally, I expect a little over 90 million people to vote, or 41% of those eligible. In the competitive Senate races, turnout will be higher, averaging 46% of those eligible.
I believe we are on track to have about 27.5% of the votes cast prior to Election Day, up from 24.9% in 2010, as reported by the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.
The early vote numbers are much higher in some competitive Senate and Gubernatorial states, and there is a wealth of data to pour over. The statistics in these states provide some clues as to what to expect on Election Day.
This is a deep dive into the data, so take a deep breath. If you want to stay in the shallow end, my take on the early vote data -- where there are enough statistics to be informative -- is that the Republican sweep screaming in the headlines is overblown. Senate control is up for grabs and Democrats have a decent chance to defy the polls. I expect that the election will be so close that we won't know who won until all ballots are counted and the vote is certified several days following the election, not to mention highly probable run-off elections in Georgia and Louisiana.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-pulling-into_b_6091452.html
MI: Rise in absentee voters may have already decided this election
NOTE: I spoke to a Dem. consultant back in MI I've know a long time. He said last week that Dems lead by 5 among those who've already ballot and by 15 among those who had yet to turn them in.News Flash: The outcome of the race for governor has already been decided but the results have not been announced.
Hidden away in the bowels of city clerks’ offices all over the state are a bundle of absentee votes. Just sitting there waiting to be counted and those ballots could swing the election either way since they could make up over 25% of the electorate. And in a close election, which this one appears to be, it could decide the outcome.
Which is why both political parties have boosted their get-out-the-absentee vote effort with the Democrats, at least giving the impression that they are more aggressive about it. At the very least they have been more vocal about it.
The R’s just announced they have “touched” 3.5 million would-be voters up from 3 million four years ago but it's not clear what percentage involved the AV ballot option.
Liberal film producer Michael Moore sent out an urgent email urging his friends to use a nifty new hi-tech gizmo to obtain an AV ballot by just clicking on your computer or smart phone or whatever gadget you own.
http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2014/10/tim_skubick_rise_in_absentee_v.html
Chuck Todd on Des Moines Register Poll: Neither side believes that.
Matt Canter
@mattcanter
RT @JustinBarasky: #iasen RT @geoffgarin: Chuck Todd on Des Moines Register poll: "Neither side believes that"
https://twitter.com/mattcanter/status/528974734231605251
MI: 100k Dems already voted who did not vote in 2010
Joe DiSano @joedisano · 22m 22 minutes ago
Bad news for @MIGOP that 100K Dems already voted that didn't in 2010. But keep wishing for crappy weather Tuesday #baseproblems
https://twitter.com/joedisano
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