RandySF
RandySF's JournalIpsos projects Obama will carry Florida, Ohio and Virginia
However, Obama still holds a substantial advantage in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects Obama will carry hotly contested states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, for a relatively comfortable electoral college victory.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/22/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121022
NV: After two days, Dems have 53%-31% lead in Clark County
So no wave, but still a substantial Democratic lead, and 7 points above registration. Democrats have turned out well above 2008 (27,000 vs. 31,000) but GOP has done even better relative to four years ago (11,000 vs. 18,000), albeit still well behind.
Democrats had an 83,000 raw vote lead at the end of two weeks of early voting in '08; they won't get there in '12, but if they get to 50,000, they may have enough of a firewall to win the state for President Obama. Remember Obama ended up winning Clark by 123,000 votes in '08 -- so it was 50 percent above his end-of-early-vote margin. And he won the state by 12 points. If he wins Clark by substantially less this year, if he doesn't get killed in Washoe, he will win again, but by a smaller margin.
http://www.ralstonflash.com/blog/after-two-days-dems-have-13000-vote-lead-clark#.UITZqn15T_8
Washoe County, NV early voting results for Day 2.
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
RT @MinnesotaMike1: @RalstonReports Washoe County Day 2. Total = 4,837 Dems = 2,262 Reps = 1,830 http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html … /#GOPmachine
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports
PHOTO - This kid's parents built his Halloween costume around his wheelchair.
[IMG]
[/IMG]
Ralston: Final thoughts on first day of early voting; what to look for next
As the Democrats sound buoyant with their wide margin and the Republicans sound like Custer crowing after Little Big Horn, some more thoughts on Day One of early voting in Clark County:
---Republicans -- at least some -- are claiming the Democratic machine did not work as well in Clark because the margin is only a landslide (55-29) after the first day and not a super-landslide (60-23) as it was in '08. Well, ok. But the Democrats still turned out MORE voters than in '08 -- 3,000 more. Their machine is working just fine, and the GOP "machine" almost got to 30 percent of the vote. This is still a slaughter, folks.
----Absentees are making the Republicans closer -- the deficit is just under 20 points, still 5 points above the registration in Clark. But the GOP needs to cut into the raw vote number with absentees, and that didn't happen -- at least not yet.
----Indies could (if the margin gets closer) decide the election. But their raw numbers (5,228) are less than a third of Democrats and only about half of Republicans. In terms of percent of their voters who turned out, it was: Democrats, 5 percent; Republicans, 3.5 percent; and others, 2.5 percent. The smaller the overall percentage of the electorate the "others" are, the less impact they will have on the election. They were 16 percent on the first day in Clark.
----Some other numbers to consider:
CD3 -- 39-37, Democrat, is actual registration. Early plus mail on first day: 45-38, D. That's not a killing.
CD4 -- 46-33, Democrat is actual. Early plus mail on first day: 55-31. That's ominous for Danny Tarkanian if it continues, a possible sign Democrats may be coming home to Steven Horsford.
----Despite Republicans making the point that they do better on Election Day, that's not necessarily true in Clark -- at least not by much. They may be able to reduce the Democratic lead by 2 or 3 points, but not much more than that, considering how many people will have voted early in Southern Nevada.
----Watch for trends. One day is not a trend. So let's see what happens. If the Democrats build up a big enough lead by the end of the two weeks, it will be a firewall against what will happen in rural Nevada. But if the Republicans can keep it relatively close in Clark -- that is, losing the early vote by single digits -- they will have a real chance to win the state for Mitt Romney -- if he can do well in Washoe. President Obama lost the cow counties by 25,000 votes in 2008. He also won Washoe County by 23,000 votes and Clark by 123,000. Surely, the Washoe and Clark numbers will be smaller and the rural number perhaps slightly bigger (30-35,000 would not be out of the question). So look at what the lead is in Clark and what the numbers are in Washoe to see if they can offset that rural loss by extrapolating.
ADDENDUM: One other trend I forgot to mention in that turnout tends to be signficantly higher in the second week of early voting than the first. So the frist day is a relatively small data sample. And we will know more after the first week if either side starts to show diminishing results.
http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/final-thoughts-first-day-early-voting-what-look-next#.UISA_n30O_4
Message from Obama campaign: We're winning Ohio. Period.
1. All public polling shows that the President has a double-digit lead among those who
have voted:
--Survey USA found that Obama leads by 19 points (57/38) among those who have
voted already.
-- Rasmussen, a Republican pollster, found that Obama leads by 29 points (63/34)
among those who have voted already.
-- The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that Obama leads by 26 points (63/37)
among those who have voted already.-- PPP found that Obama leads by 52 points (76/24) among those who have voted already.
2. Registration numbers strongly favor President Obama:
-- Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either
female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino – all demographics that
strongly favor President Obama.
-- Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012 – and
the same percentage among those who have already voted – live in counties that
President Obama won in 2008.
3. Early vote numbers strongly favor President Obama:
-- More than half (55 percent) of the early-vote ballots requested so far this year have
been requested by women, 3 percentage points greater than 2008 early voters.
-- 582,402 ballots have been requested this year from precincts that Obama won in
2008, 33,414 more than in from precincts that McCain won.
-- The total number of votes already cast this year (both by mail and in-person) from
precincts Obama won in 2008 is 261,304 – 55,636 more than from precincts McCain
won.
-- Democrats’ margin over Republicans in votes cast has increased by 21,792 compared
with this point four years ago.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/21/1147914/-Message-from-Obama-campaign-We-re-winning-Ohio-Period
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Detroit Area, MI
Home country: USA
Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 01:53 PM
Number of posts: 80,585