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BlueMTexpat

BlueMTexpat's Journal
BlueMTexpat's Journal
January 17, 2016

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Bernie Sanders Widens

http://www.wsj.com/articles/clintons-lead-over-sanders-widens-1453039203

This poll has been posted already but this is a different article. (I think.)

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead to 25 percentage points in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The former secretary of state leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 59% to 34%, a slightly larger margin than the 19-point gap in December.

The new national poll comes as surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire show the race tightening in the states that play host to the first two nominating contests. While losses there would be a setback for Mrs. Clinton, the new Journal/NBC News survey suggests that she would retain strong advantages in the later primaries. Mrs. Clinton owes her durable lead nationally to her strength with key subgroups in the Democratic primary electorate, including nonwhite, older and moderate-to-conservative primary voters.

The race looks much different in Iowa and New Hampshire. Aggregates of recent polls show the contests to be close in both states, with Mrs. Clinton edging Mr. Sanders in Iowa and the Vermont senator claiming a lead in neighboring New Hampshire.


I have a feeling that IA and NH, even though tight, will look better for HRC after her appearances on the Sunday shows and tonight's debate. Hope that feeling will be confirmed!
January 17, 2016

Madeleine Albright campaigns for Hillary Clinton in Iowa

http://wcfcourier.com/elections/caucuses/madeleine-albright-campaigns-for-hillary-clinton-in-iowa/article_15b516a3-3077-516b-a54c-2c41a27ab93f.html

“There are not a lot of people that have the brains that can deal with both domestic and foreign (policy), and she can do that,” she said. “I don’t think anybody is better prepared to be president than she is.”

Albright also credited Hillary with helping her become secretary of state.

“A lot of people said a woman couldn’t be secretary of state because the Arab countries wouldn’t deal with a woman,” she said. “The Arab ambassadors at the U.N. put out a statement saying, ‘We’ve had no problems dealing with Ambassador Albright; we wouldn’t have any problems dealing with Secretary Albright.

“Apparently what happened, according to President Clinton, was that during that period Hillary would say to him: Why wouldn’t you name Madeleine. She is most in touch with your views, expresses them better than anyone else and, besides, it would make your mother happy.”
January 17, 2016

Watch These 12-Year-Olds Talk About Race More Candidly Than Most Adults Do

http://www.yesmagazine.org/peace-justice/watch-these-twelve-year-olds-talk-about-race-more-candidly-than-most-adults-do

Recently, New York Public Radio (WNYC) decided to go straight to kids themselves and asked a group of 12-year-olds, “What are you?” for the radio series “Being 12.” Their answers revealed the array of complex experiences that pre-teens face every day based on their race.
January 16, 2016

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Hillary v Bernie pales in comparison to Democrats v Republicans

Good read generally from Daily Kos, especially if one follows the embedded links to the source stories:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/1/16/1470548/-Abbreviated-Pundit-Round-up-Hillary-v-Bernie-pales-in-comparison-to-Democrats-v-Republicans

I think Hillary/Bernie supporters need to focus on this. With Ted Cruz and Donald Trump leading the GOP field, and November 2016 coming ever closer, D vs. R is where the substantive differences are.

Will that make anyone act differently between now and November? Not likely. But I’m saying it anyway because it’s true.
January 16, 2016

One view from Down Under: Hillary heading for victory

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/us-presidential-election-hillary-clinton-is-heading-for-victory/news-story/d6f00b85d832bb7378ac0ded353ff733

Apart from repetition of uncomplimentary memes/items and a comparison of HRC to GHWB (which, IMO, is not a fair one), this article sums up the latent strengths in her campaign pretty well and is still a good read.

US presidential election: Hillary Clinton is heading for victory:

And yet let me make a bold ­prediction: notwithstanding her evident flaws and barring a federal indictment over her emails, ­Clinton will win this year’s presidential election. Although polls show that Bernie Sanders — the 74-year-old socialist senator from Vermont — provides stiff internal competition in Iowa and New Hampshire next month, few could envisage her losing her party’s nomination in July. After all, she dominates every other state caucus and primary contest. A victory in November’s general election would mean the third consecutive Democratic presidential election for the first time since the 1940s. Here’s why that outcome is likely.

Start with her strengths. She has name recognition: like Madonna, Beyonce and Brittany, Hillary is universally known by her first name. As former high-profile first lady, New York senator, secretary of state and best-selling author, she is arguably the most experienced and versatile political figure to run for the White House since George HW Bush in 1988.

Many people are also lured by the prospect of her becoming America’s first female president. As her supporters declare, the 68-year-old Hillary may not be the youngest candidate running for president; but she would be the youngest woman president in American history — and first grandmother! Add to this her discipline, determination, high intelligence and her terrific debating skills, and it is no wonder the Democratic Party establishment is solidly behind her. Hillary’s backers hopes to raise an astonishing $US2 billion for her campaign. (In 2008, Obama raised $US1bn).

It’s not just her resume that makes Clinton the hot favourite for the presidency. The political winds are blowing behind her in crucial respects: the nation’s political trajectory; the electoral arithmetic and demography; and, not least, her competition.


January 15, 2016

Fun encounter: Hillary Clinton with Jimmy Fallon

http://www.gossipcop.com/hillary-clinton-jimmy-fallon-video-2016-job-interview-tonight-show-watch/

When Fallon then asked her about the upcoming Democratic debate in Charleston, South Carolina between her and Sanders, Clinton reminded the “Tonight Show” host that Martin O’Malley is also still in the race. From there, the “Tonight Show” host asked about Trump, and she said, “He is a lot more obsessed with me than I am with him.” As for whether she’s intimidated by him, the presidential candidate said, “No,” but noted that if she’s the nominee and Trump is representing the Republicans, “It will be quite the showdown.”
...
Next, Clinton talked about her endorsements from Planned Parenthood and the Brady Campaign, which is an organization devoted to the prevention of gun violence. She said she was “honored” to get endorsements from both.

Much like Trump’s appearance on the “Tonight Show” earlier in the week, Fallon similarly put Clinton through a mock job interview. Fallon first asked, “How did you hear about the position?” to which Clinton answered, “Fourth grade social studies.” He followed that up with a question about her “qualifications.” “I have done a lot of work and have references,” said Clinton.


Clinton's senses of fun and humor have been much underrated. They will do her in good stead, IMO.
January 14, 2016

The most recent IA caucus forecast from FiveThirtyEight

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 82% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.


The prediction does not mean that the race will not be close. There is every indication that it will be. But it's hardly time to lose heart despite the constant trashing of our candidate on DU. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html







January 13, 2016

PEC readers chat about the GOP nomination

Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) hasn't weighed in on the Democratic primaries yet. But he has some good posts about what he believes is happening in the GOP primaries.

Here is an interesting chat: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/10/a-princeton-election-consortium-chat-about-the-gop-nomination/

I don’t have the financial resources of ESPN/FiveThirtyEight. But I do have you, my dear readers!

Let me cut-and-paste some of your recent remarks into a PEC chat. Edited for flow. Add your own two cents in the comment thread.


The chat may be more readable with some preparatory "homework," e.g., The predictive power of GOP Presidential polls http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/05/what-december-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-gop-nomination/ and Does Trump's ceiling matter? http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/07/does-trumps-ceiling-matter/

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