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Member since: Thu May 7, 2009, 11:59 PM
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The genius Larry Kudlow during the 2007 financial catastrophe: 'There's no recession coming.'

Just a reminder, we have been here before with some of the same characters from the Dubya Great Recession years. Remember the Bush Boom?


Presenting the economic super-genius Larry Kudlow, who took to the National Review in December, 2007, to explain that there was no recession.

There is no recession. Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S economy continues moving ahead ’”quarter after quarter, year after year’” defying dire forecasts and delivering positive growth. In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.
There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.

In December of 2007, the mortgage crisis was in full swing. The recession itself officially began that very month, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. By the time it was over it would be the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression; multiple of the nation's largest financial firms and other industry titans would require bailouts by the federal government, to say nothing of the effect on small businesses, storefronts, workers, retirees and nearly everyone else.

Not only did Larry Kudlow insist it was not happening, as it did, he wrote columns mocking those that considered the economy less than robust.

Earlier today, a doom and gloom economic forecast from Macro Economic Advisors was released predicting zero percent growth in the fourth quarter. This report is off by at least two percentage points. These guys are going to wind up with egg on their faces.

Real wages are down over the year -- but Republican satisfaction is spiking

This reminds me of 2007 when Fox News and the business media, including Larry Kudlow, where bending over backwards to insist that the economy was doing great.


Except for a little hiccup in October, average hourly earnings in the United States have increased month after month while President Trump has been in office. In January 2017, the average hourly earnings were $25.99. In July 2018, the most recent month for which data are available, it was $27.05 — an increase of more than a dollar.

But there’s a down side. While wages have gone up, inflation (as measured by the consumer price index) has gone up faster.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tallies something called real earnings, hourly and weekly earnings that take inflation into account. In January 2017, real hourly earnings were at $10.65. In July, real earnings hit $10.76. Since the tax bill was signed in December — a bill which Trump insisted would spur rapid growth in wages — inflation-adjusted hourly earnings have increased by only 0.2 percent. During Barack Obama’s second term, they increased by 3.9 percent.

The BLS generally considers year-over-year changes in real earnings. On that metric, comparing July 2017 with July 2018, real hourly earnings are down 0.2 percent according to data released Wednesday. Real weekly earnings increased slightly year-over-year — at the slowest pace since March 2017.


Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.1 percent from
June to July, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly
earnings combined with a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners
and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

After combining the change in real average hourly earnings with no change in average weekly hours,
real average weekly earnings were unchanged over the month.

U.S. consumer sentiment hits 11-month low, inflation in focus

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to an 11-month low in early August, with households expressing concerns about the rising cost of living, potentially signaling a slowdown in consumer spending.

The University of Michigan on Friday said its consumer sentiment index fell to a reading of 95.3 early this month, the weakest since September 2017, from 97.9 in July. The survey’s current conditions sub-index of consumer expectations dropped to 107.8 from July’s reading of 114.4.

It said the decline in sentiment was concentrated among households in the bottom third of the income distribution, adding that consumers’ views on prices for big-ticket household goods were the least favorable in nearly 10 years.

Inflation has been rising in recent months, driven in part by strong domestic demand and a labor market that is viewed as being near or at full employment.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-confidence/u-s-consumer-sentiment-hits-11-month-low-inflation-in-focus-idUSKBN1L21N6
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