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Emrys
Emrys's Journal
Emrys's Journal
September 23, 2019
I hope the Supreme Court judges due to give a verdict on the prorogation on Tuesday don't get wind of this, or it might influence their decision.
This follows on from earlier reporting on the role of Johnson's hedge fund backers: https://www.democraticunderground.com/108817465
I wonder whether the Financial Times will stick by its line at the time, "No deal Brexit is not a hedge fund conspiracy"?
Boris Johnson's billionaire leadership backer urged prorogation before he became PM
One of Boris Johnson's billionaire leadership backers was, as early as July, urging the prime-minister-to-be to prorogue parliament to force Brexit.
Just as Johnson was poised to become leader, hedge fund financier Crispin Odey, said that he was backing Boris because he would be ready to "dissolve" parliament for a no-deal Brexit.
Speaking to Channel 4 the day before Johnson won the leadership, Odey also said he was urging Johnson to pack the House of Lords with sympathetic new peers in order to "get this done".
The statements, revealed in the documentary Tories at War, suggest Johnson was considering prorogation at the behest of hard Brexiteer backers before he even became prime minister.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/channel-four-tories-at-war-crispin-odey-1-6283173
Just as Johnson was poised to become leader, hedge fund financier Crispin Odey, said that he was backing Boris because he would be ready to "dissolve" parliament for a no-deal Brexit.
Speaking to Channel 4 the day before Johnson won the leadership, Odey also said he was urging Johnson to pack the House of Lords with sympathetic new peers in order to "get this done".
The statements, revealed in the documentary Tories at War, suggest Johnson was considering prorogation at the behest of hard Brexiteer backers before he even became prime minister.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/channel-four-tories-at-war-crispin-odey-1-6283173
I hope the Supreme Court judges due to give a verdict on the prorogation on Tuesday don't get wind of this, or it might influence their decision.
This follows on from earlier reporting on the role of Johnson's hedge fund backers: https://www.democraticunderground.com/108817465
I wonder whether the Financial Times will stick by its line at the time, "No deal Brexit is not a hedge fund conspiracy"?
September 12, 2019
...
At the start of this year, a number of hedge funds – including that of Crispin Odey who made £220 million on the night of the referendum result – announced that, in their view, Brexit wasn’t going to happen and that they were going to take bets out on sterling going up.
Between January to May 2019, less than 10 short positions were being taken out by hedge funds per week. However, that all changed dramatically when Boris Johnson announced that he was running for the Conservative Party leadership on May 16. The number of short positions thereafter doubled, tripled and quadrupled and, by the time of his victory was announced, had risen to around 100 per week.
...
Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit.
Does this £8 billion bet explain why the Prime Minister has said that he would rather “die in a ditch” before asking the EU for an extension? Is it the reason why Johnson is willing to defy the Benn Act that stops a ‘no deal’ Brexit? Is the £8 billion any kind of motivation to prorogue Parliament?
https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/
Brexit Disaster Capitalism: 8 Billion Bet on No Deal Crash-Out by Boris Johnson's Leave Backers
While the Prime Minister defies the law and insists Britain will leave the European Union on 31 October, his backers stand to make billions out of the disaster....
At the start of this year, a number of hedge funds – including that of Crispin Odey who made £220 million on the night of the referendum result – announced that, in their view, Brexit wasn’t going to happen and that they were going to take bets out on sterling going up.
Between January to May 2019, less than 10 short positions were being taken out by hedge funds per week. However, that all changed dramatically when Boris Johnson announced that he was running for the Conservative Party leadership on May 16. The number of short positions thereafter doubled, tripled and quadrupled and, by the time of his victory was announced, had risen to around 100 per week.
...
Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit.
Does this £8 billion bet explain why the Prime Minister has said that he would rather “die in a ditch” before asking the EU for an extension? Is it the reason why Johnson is willing to defy the Benn Act that stops a ‘no deal’ Brexit? Is the £8 billion any kind of motivation to prorogue Parliament?
https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/
September 11, 2019
You'll notice there a heavy redaction of paragraph 15 above. Urwin, who saw an unredacted version, tweeted that it read:
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171873763295682560
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171874282017869824
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171874438620602375
You can download the assessment from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/government-response-to-humble-address-motion
Direct link to full PDF: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf
Government Publishes Operation Yellowhammer Plans
Having claimed that the leaked documents a month ago were "outdated", they've now made them publicly available:
Rosamund Urwin, who published the leaked version in the Sunday Times, tweeted tonight:
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171872961944571905
Rosamund Urwin @RosamundUrwin
What's different about the new Yellowhammer document that the government has just published compared with the one I got hold of last month? The heading.
What did the version I had say? BASE SCENARIO
Now what does the new one say? HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions
What's different about the new Yellowhammer document that the government has just published compared with the one I got hold of last month? The heading.
What did the version I had say? BASE SCENARIO
Now what does the new one say? HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions
You'll notice there a heavy redaction of paragraph 15 above. Urwin, who saw an unredacted version, tweeted that it read:
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171873763295682560
Rosamund Urwin @RosamundUrwin
"15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans." [More to come]
"15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans." [More to come]
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171874282017869824
Rosamund Urwin @RosamundUrwin
"This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). (2/3)
"This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). (2/3)
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171874438620602375
Rosamund Urwin @RosamundUrwin
Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries." (3/3)
Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries." (3/3)
You can download the assessment from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/government-response-to-humble-address-motion
Direct link to full PDF: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf
September 11, 2019
Before we get too excited, it's worth pointing out that the Scottish courts not infrequently take different views to the English courts - the High Court in London's decision last week went the other way. But this is an important principle to test anyway.
"Sources" in No. 10 (a.k.a. Dominic Cummings, no doubt) said "We note that last week the High Court in London did not rule that prorogation was unlawful. The legal activists choose the Scottish courts for a reason." Some have taken this as a slur on Scottish judges' independence. Jolyon Maugham QC says they chose the Scottish Appeal Court as a venue because the English High Court wasn't sitting in August.
Scottish judges rule PM's suspension of parliament is unlawful
Appeal court says prorogation order ‘void’ but fails to issue injunction for MPs to return
Scottish appeal court judges have declared Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful.
The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the power to interfere in the prime minister’s political decision to prorogue parliament.
Lawyers acting for 75 opposition MPs and peers argued Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament for five weeks was illegal and in breach of the constitution, as it was designed to stifle parliamentary debate and action on Brexit.
...
The court issued an official summary of its decision declaring the prorogation order was “null and of no effect”, but Carloway said the judges were deferring a final decision on an interdict to the UK supreme court, which will hold a three-day hearing next week.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/scottish-judges-rule-boris-johnsons-prorogation-unlawful
Scottish appeal court judges have declared Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful.
The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the power to interfere in the prime minister’s political decision to prorogue parliament.
Lawyers acting for 75 opposition MPs and peers argued Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament for five weeks was illegal and in breach of the constitution, as it was designed to stifle parliamentary debate and action on Brexit.
...
The court issued an official summary of its decision declaring the prorogation order was “null and of no effect”, but Carloway said the judges were deferring a final decision on an interdict to the UK supreme court, which will hold a three-day hearing next week.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/scottish-judges-rule-boris-johnsons-prorogation-unlawful
Before we get too excited, it's worth pointing out that the Scottish courts not infrequently take different views to the English courts - the High Court in London's decision last week went the other way. But this is an important principle to test anyway.
"Sources" in No. 10 (a.k.a. Dominic Cummings, no doubt) said "We note that last week the High Court in London did not rule that prorogation was unlawful. The legal activists choose the Scottish courts for a reason." Some have taken this as a slur on Scottish judges' independence. Jolyon Maugham QC says they chose the Scottish Appeal Court as a venue because the English High Court wasn't sitting in August.
September 10, 2019
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm heartily sick of Cummings and other patronizing shady overprivileged wealthy useless conniving wannabe class warriors co-opting "the working class" and "northerners" as a stick to beat anyone who's not as barkingly bonkers in favour of plummeting out of the EU with no safety net or parachute as they are, as if either of those blocs is monolithic.
From 2017, by LSE researchers:
From last May:
From last March:
8 reasons we should stop assuming “northern” means “pro-Brexit”
...
1) Many regions within the North were majority Remain – and many down South were majority Leave
...
2) Everywhere has large numbers of Leave and Remain voters
...
3) The North has an awful lot of people – but not necessarily enough to stop Brexit alone
...
4) Differences aren’t as big as percentages make it look
...
5) Non-voters narrow the margins further
...
6) Opinion polls show Remain gaining ground in the North
...
7) Referendums don’t work like elections anyway
...
8) In general, stereotyping is just a bad idea
...
https://www.citymetric.com/politics/8-reasons-we-should-stop-assuming-northern-means-pro-brexit-4513
Cummings isn't a subtle person. The battle lines he wants to draw up for an upcoming election are obvious: people versus parliament; rich Remainers versus - well, who the hell knows, hard done by? - Leavers; his nihilistic world view, dubious motives and ultra-wealthy backers versus what passes for reality nowadays, the national good and those of us who aren't rich by any means, just collateral damage in his machinations.
PM aide Dominic Cummings blames 'rich Remainers' in Brexit snap at TV reporter
Privately-schooled Dominic Cummings, whose baronet father-in-law owns a haunted castle, had a characteristically blunt response while leaving his £1.6m townhouse
...
The senior No10 advisor told a TV reporter: "You guys should get outside London and go to talk to people who are not rich remainers."
...
The son of an oil rig manager and teacher, who has repeatedly portrayed himself as the scourge of the civil service establishment, was educated at the fee-paying Durham School and Oxford University.
He and his wife Mary Wakefield - whose father, Sir Humphrey, owns 'Britain's most haunted castle' Chillingham Castle in Northumberland - bought their Islington townhouse for £1.65m in 2013 and later applied to extend it.
The luxurious home features a separate 'Tapestry Room', 'Reading Room' and 'Formal Living Room' spread across two floors.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pm-aide-dominic-cummings-blames-19928675
...
The senior No10 advisor told a TV reporter: "You guys should get outside London and go to talk to people who are not rich remainers."
...
The son of an oil rig manager and teacher, who has repeatedly portrayed himself as the scourge of the civil service establishment, was educated at the fee-paying Durham School and Oxford University.
He and his wife Mary Wakefield - whose father, Sir Humphrey, owns 'Britain's most haunted castle' Chillingham Castle in Northumberland - bought their Islington townhouse for £1.65m in 2013 and later applied to extend it.
The luxurious home features a separate 'Tapestry Room', 'Reading Room' and 'Formal Living Room' spread across two floors.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pm-aide-dominic-cummings-blames-19928675
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm heartily sick of Cummings and other patronizing shady overprivileged wealthy useless conniving wannabe class warriors co-opting "the working class" and "northerners" as a stick to beat anyone who's not as barkingly bonkers in favour of plummeting out of the EU with no safety net or parachute as they are, as if either of those blocs is monolithic.
From 2017, by LSE researchers:
Brexit was not the voice of the working class nor of the uneducated – it was of the squeezed middle
Over the past year or so, Brexit has been interpreted as the symbol of a historical shift to anti-establishment politics, kicking off a surge in the ‘outsider’ vote across Europe and the United States. In line with this narrative, initial interpretations of the vote depicted Leave voters as marginalised segments of the population – both educationally and economically – who had channelled their discontent through the referendum.
Another popular view that emerged is that Brexit was the unified response of the working class which finally found its long-lost voice. Yet subsequent, rigorous analysis showed that the profile of Brexit voters is more heterogeneous than initially thought, and that it includes voters with high education and ‘middle class’ jobs. If Brexit is really connected to socio-economic factors, how do we make sense of this apparent contradiction?
...
The left-out argument has been constructed around voters whose low levels of education render them unable to compete with those with a university degree in the globalised economy. Academic research has already argued against this. For example, Goodwin and Heath show that voters with A-level education from low skilled communities had similar pro-Leave voting profiles to those with no education.
...
Our findings confirm a negative relationship between education and voting Leave: the higher the level of one’s education, the lower the likelihood of them voting Leave. Our findings, however, reject the dichotomous view of the low-educated Brexiter vs the high-educated Remainer, by showing that two groups with intermediate levels of education (voters with good GSCEs and A-levels) were more pro-Leave than the low-educated (those with no formal education and with low GSCE grades).
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-squeezed-middle/
Over the past year or so, Brexit has been interpreted as the symbol of a historical shift to anti-establishment politics, kicking off a surge in the ‘outsider’ vote across Europe and the United States. In line with this narrative, initial interpretations of the vote depicted Leave voters as marginalised segments of the population – both educationally and economically – who had channelled their discontent through the referendum.
Another popular view that emerged is that Brexit was the unified response of the working class which finally found its long-lost voice. Yet subsequent, rigorous analysis showed that the profile of Brexit voters is more heterogeneous than initially thought, and that it includes voters with high education and ‘middle class’ jobs. If Brexit is really connected to socio-economic factors, how do we make sense of this apparent contradiction?
...
The left-out argument has been constructed around voters whose low levels of education render them unable to compete with those with a university degree in the globalised economy. Academic research has already argued against this. For example, Goodwin and Heath show that voters with A-level education from low skilled communities had similar pro-Leave voting profiles to those with no education.
...
Our findings confirm a negative relationship between education and voting Leave: the higher the level of one’s education, the lower the likelihood of them voting Leave. Our findings, however, reject the dichotomous view of the low-educated Brexiter vs the high-educated Remainer, by showing that two groups with intermediate levels of education (voters with good GSCEs and A-levels) were more pro-Leave than the low-educated (those with no formal education and with low GSCE grades).
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-squeezed-middle/
From last May:
It has become commonplace to ascribe the leave victory in 2016 to the votes of working-class Labour supporters. This is misleading. Most leave voters live in Conservative constituencies. The Tory shires mattered more than Labour’s industrial heartlands.
A YouGov analysis of more than 25,000 voters suggests the following division of leave voters in the referendum, linked to the 2017 election result.
• Middle-class leave voters: Conservative 5.6 million; Labour 1.6 million.
• Working-class leave voters: Conservative 4.4 million; Labour 2.2 million. (A few of the remaining 3.6 million leave voters supported smaller parties; most did not vote in 2017.)
So the largest block of leave voters were middle-class Conservatives, followed by working-class Conservatives. Just one in eight leave voters was a working-class Labour supporter. To be sure, had even half of these 2.2 million voters backed remain, the result of the referendum would be different. But to suggest that the referendum’s 17.4 million leave voters were dominated by working-class Labour supporters is simply wrong.
A YouGov analysis of more than 25,000 voters suggests the following division of leave voters in the referendum, linked to the 2017 election result.
• Middle-class leave voters: Conservative 5.6 million; Labour 1.6 million.
• Working-class leave voters: Conservative 4.4 million; Labour 2.2 million. (A few of the remaining 3.6 million leave voters supported smaller parties; most did not vote in 2017.)
So the largest block of leave voters were middle-class Conservatives, followed by working-class Conservatives. Just one in eight leave voters was a working-class Labour supporter. To be sure, had even half of these 2.2 million voters backed remain, the result of the referendum would be different. But to suggest that the referendum’s 17.4 million leave voters were dominated by working-class Labour supporters is simply wrong.
From last March:
8 reasons we should stop assuming “northern” means “pro-Brexit”
...
1) Many regions within the North were majority Remain – and many down South were majority Leave
...
2) Everywhere has large numbers of Leave and Remain voters
...
3) The North has an awful lot of people – but not necessarily enough to stop Brexit alone
...
4) Differences aren’t as big as percentages make it look
...
5) Non-voters narrow the margins further
...
6) Opinion polls show Remain gaining ground in the North
...
7) Referendums don’t work like elections anyway
...
8) In general, stereotyping is just a bad idea
...
https://www.citymetric.com/politics/8-reasons-we-should-stop-assuming-northern-means-pro-brexit-4513
Cummings isn't a subtle person. The battle lines he wants to draw up for an upcoming election are obvious: people versus parliament; rich Remainers versus - well, who the hell knows, hard done by? - Leavers; his nihilistic world view, dubious motives and ultra-wealthy backers versus what passes for reality nowadays, the national good and those of us who aren't rich by any means, just collateral damage in his machinations.
September 4, 2019
The picture of Jacob Rees-Mogg lying down on the job will haunt the Tories for decades
When the tale is told of the first parliamentary vote of Boris Johnson’s premiership, it will mention his spectacular failure to win it; his removal of the whip from lifelong Conservatives including former cabinet members and Churchill’s grandson; and his loss of a majority, and potentially the forcing of a general election on a tired and bitterly divided British public.
But after the immediate repercussions of this weeks' vote are over, there will be an image from last night that hangs around Tory necks for years to come: Jacob Rees-Mogg lying horizontal on the front bench as he listened to the debate, lounging insouciantly like a rebel child defying nanny, showing all the grace of Kevin the Etonian Teenager.
Rees-Mogg’s disdain for parliament, for democracy, for his colleagues could not have been made clearer. His body language screamed “I shouldn’t have to be here listening to you people”. It was a pose designed to suggest this debate shouldn’t have taken place at all. But it was a mistake – and one that will haunt him and his party for decades.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jacob-rees-mogg-brexit-debate-lying-down-boris-johnson-tories-ed-miliband-a9091156.html
Let the haunting begin. The image has already inevitably spawned a number of Photoshops. My favourite is:
Blessed Be the Meme Makers
Last night, Rees-Mogg caused a bit of a stir by lounging undecorously on the front benches during proceedings, finally being called out on it by Caroline Lucas:
The picture of Jacob Rees-Mogg lying down on the job will haunt the Tories for decades
When the tale is told of the first parliamentary vote of Boris Johnson’s premiership, it will mention his spectacular failure to win it; his removal of the whip from lifelong Conservatives including former cabinet members and Churchill’s grandson; and his loss of a majority, and potentially the forcing of a general election on a tired and bitterly divided British public.
But after the immediate repercussions of this weeks' vote are over, there will be an image from last night that hangs around Tory necks for years to come: Jacob Rees-Mogg lying horizontal on the front bench as he listened to the debate, lounging insouciantly like a rebel child defying nanny, showing all the grace of Kevin the Etonian Teenager.
Rees-Mogg’s disdain for parliament, for democracy, for his colleagues could not have been made clearer. His body language screamed “I shouldn’t have to be here listening to you people”. It was a pose designed to suggest this debate shouldn’t have taken place at all. But it was a mistake – and one that will haunt him and his party for decades.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jacob-rees-mogg-brexit-debate-lying-down-boris-johnson-tories-ed-miliband-a9091156.html
Let the haunting begin. The image has already inevitably spawned a number of Photoshops. My favourite is:
September 4, 2019
Sunday Times Political Editor Tim Shipman later posted this tweet, then deleted it after Labour sources denied it happened:
But the "Labour sources" apparently didn't inform Labour MP Cat Smith, who witnessed the incident:
https://twitter.com/CatSmithMP/status/1169009732117512192
UPDATE: The story's now been picked up by the Mirror:
PM's guru Dominic Cummings goads Jeremy Corbyn after Boris Johnson Brexit defeat
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pms-guru-dominic-cummings-goads-19400954
It's not clear how early in the day he started hitting the bottle:
And the spite continues:
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1169009834919899142
That would be the rebels' parliamentary passes, without which they'll have trouble getting past security.
Tory "Mastermind" Dominic Cummings Reportedly Wandering Drunk around Parliament
From the sounds of it, he's not taking Tuesday's events well ...
From Guardian Political Correspondent Peter Walker:
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1168973984836268034
Peter Walker ✔
@peterwalker99
I just bumped into Dominic Cummings, who was clutching a glass of red wine and wandering along the parliamentary press corridor, lost and looking for a particular newspaper office. This is not a usual occurrence.
@peterwalker99
I just bumped into Dominic Cummings, who was clutching a glass of red wine and wandering along the parliamentary press corridor, lost and looking for a particular newspaper office. This is not a usual occurrence.
Sunday Times Political Editor Tim Shipman later posted this tweet, then deleted it after Labour sources denied it happened:
But the "Labour sources" apparently didn't inform Labour MP Cat Smith, who witnessed the incident:
https://twitter.com/CatSmithMP/status/1169009732117512192
Cat Smith ✔
@CatSmithMP
As one of several shadow cabinet members stood right next to Jeremy (who was on the phone at the time) I just thought there was some loud bloke who stunk of booze yelling at us. https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1169004516840235014 …
@CatSmithMP
As one of several shadow cabinet members stood right next to Jeremy (who was on the phone at the time) I just thought there was some loud bloke who stunk of booze yelling at us. https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1169004516840235014 …
UPDATE: The story's now been picked up by the Mirror:
PM's guru Dominic Cummings goads Jeremy Corbyn after Boris Johnson Brexit defeat
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pms-guru-dominic-cummings-goads-19400954
It's not clear how early in the day he started hitting the bottle:
Day of the Remainer purge: how Dominic Cummings ranted at Tory rebels in Downing Street
If the 15 Tory rebels who headed to 10 Downing Street were hoping that Boris Johnson and his team would 'love bomb' them with entreaties not to vote against the Government, they were sorely mistaken.
"I don't know who any of you are!" Mr Johnson's chief adviser Dominic Cummings yelled at a some of them as they waited to meet the Prime Minister outside the Cabinet room.
The former head of the Vote Leave campaign - wearing his trademark crumpled white shirt - continued to hector the smartly dressed MPs in this way for a "considerable period of time".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/03/day-remainer-purge-dominic-cummings-ranted-tory-rebels-downing/
If the 15 Tory rebels who headed to 10 Downing Street were hoping that Boris Johnson and his team would 'love bomb' them with entreaties not to vote against the Government, they were sorely mistaken.
"I don't know who any of you are!" Mr Johnson's chief adviser Dominic Cummings yelled at a some of them as they waited to meet the Prime Minister outside the Cabinet room.
The former head of the Vote Leave campaign - wearing his trademark crumpled white shirt - continued to hector the smartly dressed MPs in this way for a "considerable period of time".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/03/day-remainer-purge-dominic-cummings-ranted-tory-rebels-downing/
And the spite continues:
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1169009834919899142
Aubrey Allegretti ✔
@breeallegretti
Wow. Sam Gyimah, one of the Tory rebels, tells @SamCoatesSky that "coming in here this evening it looks like they've also disabled our passes, which is a hostile act".
@breeallegretti
Wow. Sam Gyimah, one of the Tory rebels, tells @SamCoatesSky that "coming in here this evening it looks like they've also disabled our passes, which is a hostile act".
That would be the rebels' parliamentary passes, without which they'll have trouble getting past security.
September 2, 2019
The article includes charts and an animation of traffic flows based on real-world data on 26 August 2019.
A Typical Hour in the Life of the Irish Border
There are 72m road vehicle crossings a year between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, according to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra). There are also eight trains daily in either direction between Dublin and Belfast.
About 14% of those crossings are consignments of goods, some of which may cross the border several times before they reach a consumer. In border areas it is common for milk which is collected in Ireland to be pasteurised and packaged in Northern Ireland and then sent back over the border for sale in supermarkets.
Overall, 32% of Northern Ireland's exports to Ireland are classified as "food and live animals".
A no-deal Brexit would effectively end this trade. UK government advice says that "to transport animals, products of animal origin (POAO), fish, shellfish, crustaceans, germplasm or fishery products from the UK to the EU in the event of no deal, you’ll need to ensure the trade route for your goods allows for your consignment to be checked at a border inspection post (BIP) at the first EU country you enter for export."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/02/a-typical-hour-in-the-life-of-the-irish-border
About 14% of those crossings are consignments of goods, some of which may cross the border several times before they reach a consumer. In border areas it is common for milk which is collected in Ireland to be pasteurised and packaged in Northern Ireland and then sent back over the border for sale in supermarkets.
Overall, 32% of Northern Ireland's exports to Ireland are classified as "food and live animals".
A no-deal Brexit would effectively end this trade. UK government advice says that "to transport animals, products of animal origin (POAO), fish, shellfish, crustaceans, germplasm or fishery products from the UK to the EU in the event of no deal, you’ll need to ensure the trade route for your goods allows for your consignment to be checked at a border inspection post (BIP) at the first EU country you enter for export."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/02/a-typical-hour-in-the-life-of-the-irish-border
The article includes charts and an animation of traffic flows based on real-world data on 26 August 2019.
August 28, 2019
And from the Primest Minister of them all, the Sun King himself ...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1166821141207494656.html
Nine Tory ministers condemn prorogation of Parliament
What ministers said about prorogation before they put their own careers before the interests of the country
Ian Birrell https://twitter.com/ianbirrell
1) @NickyMorgan01, culture sec: 'It would lead to a constitutional crisis.'
2) @MattHancock, health sec: 'There is this idea from some people that to deliver Brexit we should suspend our parliamentary democracy, we should prorogue parliament. That goes against everything those men who waded onto those beaches fought & died for - and I will not have it'
3) @AmberRuddHR dd work & pensions sec: 'The idea of leaving the EU to take back more control into parliament and to consider the idea of closing parliament to do that is the most extraordinary idea I've ever heard. It is a ridiculous suggestion to consider Proroguing parliament
4) Sajid Javid, chancellor: You don't deliver on democracy by trashing democracy . . . we are not selecting a dictator of our country"
5) @MattHancock again: Proroguing Parliament undermines parliamentary democracy. I rule it out and call on all candidates to do the same
6) @AmberRuddHR again: 'I think it’s outrageous to consider proroguing Parliament. We are not Stuart kings.”
7) @MattHancock yet again: 'A policy on Brexit to prorogue Parliament would mean the end of the Conservative Party as a serious party of government'
8) @michaelgove, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: 'I think it will be wrong for many reasons. I think it would not be true to the best traditions of British democracy
9) @NickyMorgan01 again: 'Proroguing Parliament is clearly a mad suggestion. You cannot say you are going to take back control … and then go: ‘Oh, by the way, we are just going to shut Parliament down for a couple of months, so we are just going to drift out on a no deal’
10) @andrealeadsom, business sec, was asked if she could go along with such a plan. 'No I don’t believe I would and I don’t believe it would happen.'
11) @andrealeadsom also said: 'It's certainly not something I would seek to do. I'm passionate about parliament democracy.'
...
12) @GeorgeFreemanMP, transport minister: 'The idea that a new PM will want, let alone be allowed by backbench MPs or Peers, to prorogue Parliament is bonkers. It would look appalling.'
...
13) @michaelgove again: 'One reason I argued to leave the EU was to make our parliament stronger, to reinvigorate our democracy. It would be a terrible thing if having said we should have more power in our country & trust our institutions more we shut the doors of parliament'
Ian Birrell https://twitter.com/ianbirrell
1) @NickyMorgan01, culture sec: 'It would lead to a constitutional crisis.'
2) @MattHancock, health sec: 'There is this idea from some people that to deliver Brexit we should suspend our parliamentary democracy, we should prorogue parliament. That goes against everything those men who waded onto those beaches fought & died for - and I will not have it'
3) @AmberRuddHR dd work & pensions sec: 'The idea of leaving the EU to take back more control into parliament and to consider the idea of closing parliament to do that is the most extraordinary idea I've ever heard. It is a ridiculous suggestion to consider Proroguing parliament
4) Sajid Javid, chancellor: You don't deliver on democracy by trashing democracy . . . we are not selecting a dictator of our country"
5) @MattHancock again: Proroguing Parliament undermines parliamentary democracy. I rule it out and call on all candidates to do the same
6) @AmberRuddHR again: 'I think it’s outrageous to consider proroguing Parliament. We are not Stuart kings.”
7) @MattHancock yet again: 'A policy on Brexit to prorogue Parliament would mean the end of the Conservative Party as a serious party of government'
8) @michaelgove, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: 'I think it will be wrong for many reasons. I think it would not be true to the best traditions of British democracy
9) @NickyMorgan01 again: 'Proroguing Parliament is clearly a mad suggestion. You cannot say you are going to take back control … and then go: ‘Oh, by the way, we are just going to shut Parliament down for a couple of months, so we are just going to drift out on a no deal’
10) @andrealeadsom, business sec, was asked if she could go along with such a plan. 'No I don’t believe I would and I don’t believe it would happen.'
11) @andrealeadsom also said: 'It's certainly not something I would seek to do. I'm passionate about parliament democracy.'
...
12) @GeorgeFreemanMP, transport minister: 'The idea that a new PM will want, let alone be allowed by backbench MPs or Peers, to prorogue Parliament is bonkers. It would look appalling.'
...
13) @michaelgove again: 'One reason I argued to leave the EU was to make our parliament stronger, to reinvigorate our democracy. It would be a terrible thing if having said we should have more power in our country & trust our institutions more we shut the doors of parliament'
And from the Primest Minister of them all, the Sun King himself ...
14) @BorisJohnson, PM (h/t @Sandbach): 'I would like to make it absolutely clear that I am not attracted to arcane procedures such as the prorogation of Parliament. As someone who aspires to be the PM of a democratic nation, I believe in finding consensus in the House of Commons'
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1166821141207494656.html
August 28, 2019
Small beans compared to the rest of today's news maybe, this will have been utterly predictable (despite the disclaimer above) if it pans out tomorrow. Davidson's never overtaxed herself as an MSP (as her constituents can vouch), so claims of "lifestyle and family commitments" conflicting with her cosy job in the family-friendly parliament at Holyrood just aren't credible.
Davidson, for far too long given an ultra-easy ride by the media, was once (seriously over-)hyped as a potential UK Tory leader, the public and electoral face of a Tory Party in Scotland that hardly dare display the brand "Conservative Party" on its literature and publicity:
She's been on the skids ever since May formed her alliance with the DUP, when their attitudes toward LGBT issues put her, as the openly gay, "modernizing" face of the Scottish Tories, in a very awkward position.
When the Tories won an unexpected 13 MPs in the last election, Davidson boasted that "her" MPs would take Scotland's case (in the very restrictive terms the Scottish Tories think fitting for us) to Westminster more effectively than the other parties could. The reality has been that "her" MPs have proven far more loyal to May, and so far Johnson, than to her (or indeed, Scotland), and she became more and more irrelevant even before, and especially after, she took maternity leave over the last year.
She was an ardent Remainer during the Brexit referendum, had a very awkward time squaring that stance with the evolving UK Tory line, backed a series of losers in the Tory leadership contest, and had to eat a hearty helping of crow when Johnson was elected.
In the UK context, if a series of polls are to believed, even before today's events and with her still at the helm, the Tories looked likely to lose all 13 of their Scottish MPs at the next general election. After today, and without her as figurehead, that looks like more than a fair bet, chipping away at a possible Tory majority at Westminster. We'll have to wait and see whether she remains in politics at all (we don't know yet whether she just intends to stand down as leader or whether she'll also quit as an MSP), but the No campaign in a future Scottish independence referendum would sorely miss her, though her claims and arguments from campaigns past would be very difficult to defend given how events have turned out and are turning out still.
Who's likely to succeed her as leader of the Scottish Tory branch office is anybody's guess at the moment, and we can but hope for a protracted, ugly contest, but none of the likely contenders (most probably from among the ranks of Tory MSPs) are charismatic, competent nor at all appealing.
Ruth Davidson 'to quit as Scottish Conservative leader'
Party sources confirmed Ms Davidson was considering her position and was expected to make a statement tomorrow.
...
The news broke hours after Boris Johnson moved to suspend parliament for five weeks in order to stop MPs blocking a no-deal Brexit.
Mr Davidson has never hidden her disdain for Mr Johnson, or her opposition to no-deal.
However sources said her decision was not in response to the Prime Minister’s increasingly hardline on Brexit, but based on lifestyle and family commitments.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17866264.ruth-davidson-to-quit-scottish-conservative-leader/
...
The news broke hours after Boris Johnson moved to suspend parliament for five weeks in order to stop MPs blocking a no-deal Brexit.
Mr Davidson has never hidden her disdain for Mr Johnson, or her opposition to no-deal.
However sources said her decision was not in response to the Prime Minister’s increasingly hardline on Brexit, but based on lifestyle and family commitments.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17866264.ruth-davidson-to-quit-scottish-conservative-leader/
Small beans compared to the rest of today's news maybe, this will have been utterly predictable (despite the disclaimer above) if it pans out tomorrow. Davidson's never overtaxed herself as an MSP (as her constituents can vouch), so claims of "lifestyle and family commitments" conflicting with her cosy job in the family-friendly parliament at Holyrood just aren't credible.
Davidson, for far too long given an ultra-easy ride by the media, was once (seriously over-)hyped as a potential UK Tory leader, the public and electoral face of a Tory Party in Scotland that hardly dare display the brand "Conservative Party" on its literature and publicity:
She's been on the skids ever since May formed her alliance with the DUP, when their attitudes toward LGBT issues put her, as the openly gay, "modernizing" face of the Scottish Tories, in a very awkward position.
When the Tories won an unexpected 13 MPs in the last election, Davidson boasted that "her" MPs would take Scotland's case (in the very restrictive terms the Scottish Tories think fitting for us) to Westminster more effectively than the other parties could. The reality has been that "her" MPs have proven far more loyal to May, and so far Johnson, than to her (or indeed, Scotland), and she became more and more irrelevant even before, and especially after, she took maternity leave over the last year.
She was an ardent Remainer during the Brexit referendum, had a very awkward time squaring that stance with the evolving UK Tory line, backed a series of losers in the Tory leadership contest, and had to eat a hearty helping of crow when Johnson was elected.
In the UK context, if a series of polls are to believed, even before today's events and with her still at the helm, the Tories looked likely to lose all 13 of their Scottish MPs at the next general election. After today, and without her as figurehead, that looks like more than a fair bet, chipping away at a possible Tory majority at Westminster. We'll have to wait and see whether she remains in politics at all (we don't know yet whether she just intends to stand down as leader or whether she'll also quit as an MSP), but the No campaign in a future Scottish independence referendum would sorely miss her, though her claims and arguments from campaigns past would be very difficult to defend given how events have turned out and are turning out still.
Who's likely to succeed her as leader of the Scottish Tory branch office is anybody's guess at the moment, and we can but hope for a protracted, ugly contest, but none of the likely contenders (most probably from among the ranks of Tory MSPs) are charismatic, competent nor at all appealing.
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