merrily
merrily's Journal
Profile Information
Member since: Wed Jun 20, 2012, 02:49 AM
Number of posts: 45,251
Number of posts: 45,251
About Me
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5664118;
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5664129
Journal Archives
Just for Fun: Six Bizarre Factors That Predict Every Modern Presidential Election (so far, anyway)
Posted by merrily | Sun May 31, 2015, 12:40 PM (2 replies)
Populist Group Post: Countin' Yer County.
So, a year or more ago, I was watching The Daily Show via On Demand. Brian Williams was the guest. Jon Stewart mentioned something or other relating to the electoral vote. Williams replied something like, "People who really know this stuff tells me it drills down to eight counties." Jon Stewart was stunned. So was I.
We hear every vote counts. We hear about purple states. However, apparently, it's really about purple counties--and not very many of those, either. Take $2.5 billion in donations to only one candidate, add soft money, then divide by the number of people in eight counties. How many hungry people could you feed? Ah, never mind. Hungry people are unmentionable anymore and I hate long division. Anyway, I googled after hearing that and found stories about 8 counties. Also stories about more counties than that. But, never more than 100 counties. Think about that. All this time, energy, money, etc. http://www.businessinsider.com/swing-state-counties-florida-ohio-wisconsin-virginia-2012-9 (article has a wonderful pic of Obama carrying a toddler--my favorite kind of Obama pic) In 2014, the 8 counties were (alphabetically by state): Jefferson County, Colorado Hillsborough County, Florida (includes Tampa) Cedar County, Iowa Washoe County, Nevada Hillsborough County, New Hampshire (what are the odds?) Wood County, Ohio Henrico County, Virginia Brown County, Wisconsin I wonder which counties, and how many counties, will determine the 2016 Presidential election? Keeping abreast of that next year will be important. |
Posted by merrily | Sun May 31, 2015, 12:27 PM (4 replies)
Populist Group Post: Our friends across the pond have a view of centrists, too.
On our side of the Atlantic:
George McGovern lost an election to an incumbent who had served 4 years as President and 8 as Vice President in an otherwise unusual election. Conservative US Democrats used that as an excuse to repeal the democratic reforms to the Party that McGovern had instituted and also as an excuse to try to institute super delegates. They failed to institute the super delegates then, but succeeded when they used Mondale's loss to another unusual candidate as an excuse for both super delegates and turning almost the entire party Third Way, even though winning the Presidency was their target. (Before some clown chimes in to disrupt and tell super delegates can't decide a primary, they get almost 20% of the primary votes in a nation of 350 million people, more or less. I'll let readers decide how helpful that is or isn't. Anyway..... Bill Clinton did become the first Democratic President in a while to win two terms. However, three things probably had something to do with that. Incumbency is a huge advantage. Yes, Bush 41 blew re-election, but that was its own story. Another thing was a strong "Southern strategy:" among other things, both the President and the Vice President were from Southern states. Someone even made up campaign materials bearing the confederate flag. ![]() Last (for this post, anyway--there were more factors than 3), but far from least, two words: Ross Perot. Both in 1992 and 1996, but more important in 1992. However, the DLC took full credit and many either fell for that or pretended they had fallen for it. The 1994 midterm, however, resulted in Republicans holding the majority in both Houses of Congress for the first time since the Eisenhower administration and holding on to at least one house has been iffy ever since. As we know, the 2010 midterm enabled the Republicans to gerrymander. Inasmuch as incumbent House members also have an enormous advantage in elections, despite Congress's low approval ratings, there is a good chance they will get another shot at gerrymandering in 2020. Meanwhile, the party that went right to improve its chances at the Oval Office saw more losses in 2014 than it had since 1928. The response of the Third Way think tank was to promise to work even harder to compromise with Republicans. (You tanked. Think again.) http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025769052 So, merrily, get to the point already: what DID happen across the pond and how did they react to a centrist election debacle? Across the Pond: Liberal Democrat activists say leaders took them down a centrist blind alley http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/10/liberal-emocrats-clash-over-serious-mistakes-in-election-strategy I had to chop when I copied and pasted because of the 4 paragraph rule. I recommend reading the entire article. There isn't much more, but it's choice. ETA: Some of the readers' comments below the article are choice, too. |
Posted by merrily | Sun May 31, 2015, 11:22 AM (3 replies)
So, what do we do about this?
As an experiment, earlier, I googled "Centrists betrayed the values of the Democratic Party." One of the hits was this article from shortly after passage of ACA, sans a strong public option.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/08/power-struggle-inside-the_n_529884.html You know how some of us have been saying we don't give to the DNC, DCCC or DSCC anymore, only to individual liberal candidates? Well, according to this 2010 article, the joke's on us. (Isn't it always?) As you read it and weep, bear in mind that the Progressive Caucus is, and always has been, larger than the New Democrat Coalition and the Blue Dog Coalition. Since 1995, members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus have collectively given $6.3 million directly to members of the Blue Dog and New Democrat coalitions, according to an analysis by the Huffington Post of data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. That's not an overwhelming sum when the average winning campaign nowadays costs more than $1 million, but it represents one-sixth of all giving from one faction within the party to another. It doesn't include the millions that progressives have given to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- rank-and-file members are supposed to cough up $150,000 every two years (though many miss that mark), committee chairmen $250,000 and up. The DCCC turns around and funnels that money to conservative Democrats in close races. Add to that the millions spent by organized labor and outside groups such as MoveOn.org, and it's clear that progressive donors have become major financial benefactors of the conservative Democrats who battled to undermine their agenda. "That tension exists a lot," George Miller says about the party's demand that progressives fund their intramural rivals. "That tension exists a lot. And it's real." Please do read the entire article. So, as we've preened over donating only to the most left candidates we identify, our money has been going to New Democrats and/or Blue Dogs anyway. How you like your selective donating now? Every time I think I'm getting too cynical, I find out I'm not even close. Can anyone think of a way out of this bind, short of not donating at all? |
Posted by merrily | Fri May 29, 2015, 09:00 PM (19 replies)
"Centrists betrayed the values of the Democratic Party"
What are some of the things that come up if you google that?
First hit: http://www.jackwadeshow.com/wades-words/are-centrist-dems-democrats-or-demorats Power Struggle: Inside The Battle For The Soul Of The Democratic Party http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/08/power-struggle-inside-the_n_529884.html Liberal Democrat activists say leaders took them down a centrist blind alley http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/10/liberal-emocrats-clash-over-serious-mistakes-in-election-strategy Alan Grayson on “Democrats In Name Only”: They betray our side http://americablog.com/2013/10/alan-grayson-democrats-name-betray-side.html Senate Democrats Betray Their Supporters By Scheduling A Vote On Keystone XL http://www.politicususa.com/2014/11/12/senate-democrats-betray-supporters-scheduling-vote-keystone-xl-pipeline.html And so on. Traditional Democrats ain't the ones who hijacked the Party's message or betrayed the values of Party. They always were the Party. Duh. |
Posted by merrily | Fri May 29, 2015, 03:18 PM (10 replies)
Some race issues and facts relative to Bernie Sanders.
First, IMO, anyone who thinks race issues, poverty issues, jobs and labor issues and affordable education issues are unrelated doesn't know Schick from Shinola.
Although he (civil rights icon, John Lewis) was forced to tone down his speech (at the 1963 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom) under pressure from the representatives of other civil rights organizations on the march organization committee, his words still stung. The version of the speech leaked to the press went as follows: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_Nonviolent_Coordinating_Committee Now, to Sanders. Sanders grew up all too well-acquainted with poverty and racism. Sanders's father was a Polish Jew. Most of the family of Sanders's father had been killed in the Holocaust. His father was an unsuccessful paint salesman. The family lived in a three and a half room apartment in a poor section of Brooklyn. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders
http://time.com/3896500/bernie-sanders-vermont-campaign-radical/#3896500/bernie-sanders-vermont-campaign-radical/ In high school, Sanders ran for class president on the platform of raising scholarship money for kids in Korea orphaned by the Korean War. Sanders lost that election, but the victor did go forward with the program. In college, Sanders turned to the American civil rights movement, a dangerous activity, especially as Sanders undertook it. By the 1960s, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, aka NAACP, established in 1909, was not seen as a threat by white liberals. Still, even working for the NAACP might well get you an FBI file and wiretap. On the other hand, people were not sure what to make of civil rights organizations that sprung up after the sit-ins and demonstrations had begun, such as the Student Non-Violent Coordinating Committee, formed in 1960, aka SNCC. "In the years that followed, SNCC members were referred to as “shock troops of the revolution." In the later 1960s, led by fiery leaders such as Stokely Carmichael, SNCC focused on black power, and then protesting against the Vietnam War. As early as 1965, organization leader James Forman said he did not know “how much longer we can stay nonviolent” and in 1969, SNCC officially changed its name to the Student National Coordinating Committee to reflect the broadening of its strategies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_Nonviolent_Coordinating_Committee Warner C. White, a white minister who was a civil rights activist in Alabama and Mississippi, said during an interview: North of the border http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/news/ Under such circumstances, as a student at the prestigious University of Chicago, Bernie Sanders was a student organizer for SNCC. He also became a leader of the Congress of Racial Equality, aka CORE, at a time when most civil rights leaders were African American.
http://time.com/3896500/bernie-sanders-vermont-campaign-radical/#3896500/bernie-sanders-vermont-campaign-radical/ In 1962, at age 20, he led Chicago's first civil rights sit in. Standing on the steps of the University's administration building, he protested the University's segregated housing policies: “We feel it is an intolerable situation, when Negro and white students of the university cannot live together in university owned apartments.” He then led his fellow students into the building, where they camped overnight outside the president’s office. This made national news. He was arrested while demonstrating for desegregated public schools in Chicago. He put up fliers around Chicago protesting police brutality. After half an hour, he realized a police car was following him, taking down every paper he’d up, one by one. “Are these yours?” he remembers the officer telling him, holding up the stack of the fliers.id. In 1963, Sanders and other students boarded buses to attend the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom, in which SNCC had played a significant role. Sanders has never since wavered in his dedication to equality and economic justice for all people, regardless of race, gender, religion or orientation. As a federal official, he has also continued to speak out against police violence, militarization of police, etc. https://www.facebook.com/senatorsanders/photos/a.91485152907.84764.9124187907/10152599730597908/ From Reply 16 below, of mary625: ....Senator Sanders was one of the first, if not the first, official outside of Missouri, that commented on the horrors that happened in Ferguson last summer. (My god that was almost a year ago! ) See also: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026743489 A Senate voting record doesn't impress me greatly. Senators can only vote yea or nay and usually vote with their caucuses. Moreover, the U.S. Senate is a conservative body. With those caveats, on civil rights, Sanders has a 93% rating from the American Civil Liberties Union, aka ACLU (the ACLU rates on a variety of subjects, including women, NSA, etc.) vs. 60% for Hillary; a 97% rating from the NAACP vs. 96% for Hillary; and a 100% rating from the Human Rights Campaign vs. 89% for Hillary. For specifics as to bills and votes, see: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12778397 Oh, as for having white faces when Sanders announced his candidacy in Vermont, Vermont is 94% white. I would have been offended if he had attempted faux diversity for cameras. Chicago, however, has many people of color, yet Obama was criticized for all the white faces in a photo of his Chicago 2012 campaign headquarters: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/04/10/an-obama-campaign-photo-that-looks-like-a-young-republican-rally.html IIRC, in 2008, Obama was also criticized for placing white people within camera range for one of his speeches.(The point here is not whether Obama was right or wrong, but that, when people want to find something wrong, they will.) |
Posted by merrily | Fri May 29, 2015, 02:02 PM (35 replies)
Strictly for fun
Since the year 1900, the taller nominee has won the Oval Office most of the time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heights_of_presidents_and_presidential_candidates_of_the_United_States This is one of the reasons that, in televised Presidential debates, the bipartisan commission decided that the only time viewers should get to see the candidates side by side is when they shake hands. Maybe someday, they'll even do away with that. Of course, only men have been nominees so far. We don't know what will happen to the statistic when women become nominees. Although he did not have to worry about comparative height, President Washington was 6'2''. http://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/15/garden/american-men-of-1776-said-to-have-stood-tall.html President Lincoln was 6'4". Washington and Lincoln were the two Presidents whose birthdays the US used to celebrate each year with a national holiday, before Presidents' Day came along. Analysis of the height issue. http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Simon_Verhulst/publication/232274709_Tall_claims_Sense_and_nonsense_about_the_importance_of_height_of_US_presidents/links/09e4150801216830ea000000.pdf Presidents by height and weight. http://www.presidenstory.com/stat_tal.php (Speaking of Presidential weight, President Taft famously sat in a bathtub full of water, causing him, the water and the tub to break through the bathroom floor.) Again, this post is strictly for fun. Don't bet the deed to the farm based on height. |
Posted by merrily | Fri May 29, 2015, 02:36 AM (0 replies)
Populist Group Post: Is it really out of order to mention Bill Clinton?
A while back, DUers were posting lists of things that should not be mentioned in connection with Hillary Clinton during this primary, lest he or she who mentioned it be considered sexist. Not a difference of opinion or a different interpretation of facts, mind you, but bigotry. (Months before that, I'd been "informed" that anyone who made any mention at all of the Bosnia airport story was sexist, but that claim is too ludicrous on its face to warrant discussion.)
The list included Bill Clinton and his administration--as though Hillary somehow has nothing to do with the man she chose to be her husband and the father of her child, nothing to do with the man she helped sell to America in 1992, the man to who she has chosen to remain married for decades, etc. As a mom and a wife with my own career, I find this nonsensical as well as all too convenient. In 1985, the conservative wing of the Democratic Party founded the DLC in hopes of altering the Democratic Party. Among the founding members were a group of professional politicians.....and Hillary Clinton. As best as I have been able to determine, she was the only founding member of the DLC who joined as the spouse of a politician. When Bill Clinton ran for POTUS in 1992, he said that electing him would give America two for the price of one, meaning him and Hillary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton Hillary never demurred. So, I think it's more than fair to say that they sold his administration as as a joint Presidency. Consistent with this, in 1996, America was asked to re-elect Bill AND Hillary, as though Hillary had been elected in 1992. Bill Clinton had also sold his candidacy by campaigning on national health care. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_health_care_plan_of_1993 Soon after the 1993 inauguration, it was clear that Hillary was to lead the effort to pass health care legislation, something so extraordinary and unprecedented in American presidential politics that Hillary's role, especially the secrecy of the proceedings involving a "private citizen," became the subject of litigation. The First Lady's role in the secret proceedings of the Health Care Task Force also sparked litigation in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, in relation to the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) which requires openness in government. The Clinton White House argued that the Recommendation Clause in Article II of the U.S. Constitution would make it unconstitutional to apply the procedural requirements of FACA to Mrs. Clinton's participation in the meetings of the Task Force. Some constitutional experts argued to the court that such a legal theory was not supported by the text, history, or structure of the Constitution.[15] Ultimately, Hillary Clinton won the litigation in June 1993, when the D.C. Circuit ruled narrowly that the First Lady of the United States could be deemed a government official (and not a mere private citizen) for the purpose of not having to comply with the procedural requirements of FACA.[16][17] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_health_care_plan_of_1993 The result of the litigation was that Hillary, as First Lady, was declared a public official. Why? Because she was married to Bill while he was President; because he and she chose this role for her and because they decided to litigate to have her declared a public official. Perhaps ironically.... id. Had the healthcare bill passed, it would very likely have been the legislation that Bill in fact, would be pointing to today as his legacy, not NAFTA, DADT, DOMA, the Telecommunications Act or Gramm, Leach, Bliley. Concomitantly, I very much doubt that Hillary would have tried to disassociate herself from it when running for President, either in either 2008 or 2016. As it was, it failed for many reasons, including that Congressional Democrats were not willing to back it. However, it became a model for Romneycare in Massacusetts. (Romney did attempt to distance his plan from that of the Clintons, but his attempts were lame and unconvincing.) As stated above, in 1996, America was asked to re-elect Hillary and Bill Clinton. ![]() ![]() ![]() Sometimes, ONLY Hillary Clinton ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() When Hillary ran for the US Senate against Lazio, she endorsed Bill's action in having ended "welfare as we know it." http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/29/nyregion/campaigns-soft-pedal-on-children-and-the-poor.html?pagewanted=1 Of Hillary and Republican Lazio, Deepak Bhargava, director of public policy at the Center for Community Change, a nonpartisan, nonprofit group based in Washington, said: ''Neither of them can be called a staunch defender of antipoverty programs.'' Instead, he said, they have worked on more marginal items. id. In 2007-08 Hillary opted for "a tight embrace" of the legacy of the Clinton administration, taking credit for its positive aspects. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/21/AR2007122102588.html Additionally, during her 2008 campaign, she cited her experiences as her husband's first lady as though they added to her qualifications to be President. And she referred to events during his administration using words like "us," "we" and "our." For example, I remember her response when some members of the LGBT community told her they'd worked to elect her husband, then were so disappointed in his treatment of them: "I thought we did very well," she responded. During that primary, she also named Bill Clinton as one of the ten best Presidents in all of US history.
id. As Bill and Hillary had in 1996, many of her supporters tried to sell her 2008 candidacy as a two for one deal, with no demurrer from either of the Clintons Additionally, Bill also took a highly visible (and vocal) role in her 2007-08 Presidential primary campaign, at times sounding as though he were her Svengali: Since all that did not work out too well, Bill may take a less visible role this time, but he is still there. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/04/11/hillary-clinton-bill-husband-presidential-campaign/25591609/ So, it seems Hillary is, and always has been, very willing to be fully associated with her husband's politics and Presidency--as long as it appears that so doing could possibly advantage her. However, one must take all or nothing and it is way too late in this game to opt for nothing, nor has Hillary done so. Bottom line: Neither the Clintons nor their supporters should expect to have it every which way on this issue. (Obviously, if Hillary had been President first and Bubba had behaved about her administration and his experience as First Gentleman the same way as she has, the exact same realities would obtain if he were runninng for the Presidency.) ETA: Recently, I heard that Hillary does not want to be judged by her husband's administration or by her past, including her past campaigns for Senate and POTUS, only by her current campaign. No doubt she does not. However, I don't think she gets to decide whether voters will have amnesia. And, trust me, if Hillary or Bill or Hillary's campaign think any of the foregoing will help Hillary's current campaign, we'll hear about it. |
Posted by merrily | Wed May 27, 2015, 11:57 AM (57 replies)
Your Guide to the Bernie Sanders kickoff from the Burlington VT Free Press
Burlington is a charming town, btw. As you no doubt know, Bernie was its Mayor before he went to Congress.
Tuesday's big Bernie Sanders presidential campaign event will be equal parts homecoming and political spectacle. much more at http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/politics/2015/05/23/bernie-sanders-kickoff-guide/27811735/ |
Posted by merrily | Mon May 25, 2015, 03:09 AM (15 replies)
Bernie Sanders Tweet Brigade TODAY at 6:30 pm est
http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/36tvgm/monday_at_630_est_there_will_be_a_tweet_brigade/
This is a great reddit post. |
Posted by merrily | Mon May 25, 2015, 02:48 AM (7 replies)