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Gender: Male
Hometown: South Florida
Member since: Thu Aug 16, 2012, 05:52 PM
Number of posts: 4,350

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Highly recommend the "In The Heights" movie

If you are unfamiliar with it, this is the movie version of the Lin Manuel Miranda hit musical that he wrote and starred in before Hamilton.

It is a glorious explosion of latinx culture with music and dancing. What felt kind of constrained on the stage bursts out into the real streets of Washington Heights. It is a lot of fun.

It is running on HBO Max this month as well as the theaters. It is such a spectacle, it is one of those movies that is worth the big screen.

Here is a longer review of it https://www.vox.com/22440448/in-the-heights-movie-review-miranda-ramos-chu-hudes

My whole family loved it.

Such Aggressive Stupidity

I have a mantra; you can be arrogant or you can be stupid but you can't me both. I can live with stupid people if they aren't so sure of themselves that they actively try to teach you their stupidity. I can also live with arrogant people if they have the goods to back it up.

What kills me about these fucking covid deniers is that they are not only stupid but that they feel the need to get in your face about it.

I was at a project site walkthrough with one of my clients today. Where the project adjoins some residential property, the owners came out to find out what was going on. We politely told them what was proposed. The only thing they cared about was "why are you wearing masks". At first the woman was trying to be polite saying that it wasn't necessary outdoors. We know that but sometimes we do just to make the public and each other feel better. But the man has to chime in and start ranting about no need for masks anywhere, it was always nonsense and overblown, yada yada with the typical bullshit.

Mind you, this particular project is behind schedule because the surveyor died from covid while we were waiting for him to get the field measurements made. His widow is currently shutting down his company and trying to put her life back together.

I wanted so badly to tell this guy what I thought but I figured that would be bad form in front of a client. Even if the client approved, it could go badly considering the jackass is a resident of the City where my client is employed.

Sucks to be professional sometimes when I just want to speak my mind.

Anyway, it just shocks me that these people feel the need to be so aggressive about their stupidity. Why do they care if we wear masks? Geez I am so done with these assholes.

A "Dear Evan Hansen" movie is on the way

One of the best musicals in recent history.

It is always complicated to cast an adult in a teenager role but this was always Ben Platt's role. I can overlook that to see him in it.

Love the music. The song featured in the trailer is one of my favorite uplifting songs of all time.

So... I caught the Rona

Real bummer. Had been really careful but it caught up to me. We have been running a small crew in the office of about 6 in a space built for 25. It had been successful for a year but somebody brought it in last week and boom, Iím sick

The frustrating thing is that I had just gotten my first shot three days before. I was so close. I am hoping the shot gives me a minor boost to fight it off better though.

So far it has been just like a moderate cold so I am hopeful.

Hang in there people and continue to be careful

The potential ripple effect of the $15 minimum wage

The increase is absolutely necessary and would be a huge boost to the working class.

What I have been wondering about is how the low end salaries will redistribute.

At face value, there seems to be this presumption that everything below $15 will be raised to $15 and that will settle everything.

I don't see where the impact will stop there. There are lots of people who were never MW that had salaries that were between the old and new numbers. I will call them MW+. If nothing else changed, they would be MW going forward.

But there were reasons those people were MW+. Perhaps they had seniority or some supervisory responsibility. Perhaps they were full time instead of part-time. Perhaps their employer was trying to compete for employees. Whatever the reason, many of them will need to stay above minimum for those same reasons.

So the ripple effect I foresee is that many $12 jobs will jump to $18, etc.

I just don't see how an economy works with too many people stacked at the same wage. There has to be some kind of hierarchy even among the lowest end of the salary spectrum.

In the end, this could have a big impact even beyond the base minimum.

Reframing the question

I think the question of whether Trump incited the insurrection is the wrong framing.

I would ask it this way.

Would the attack on the Capitol have ever occurred if Trump didn't exist? If he didn't lie about results, tell them to come to DC, rally them, tell them to march, etc.

The attack never happens without his involvement. He has to be responsible for it.

Thinking outside the box on the filibuster

I have mixed feelings about eliminating the filibuster because I don't assume that Democrats will always be in power. Thus I am concerned about handing assholes a weapon and an excuse to bludgeon us with it.

Having said that, it sucks and makes it hard to govern.

So I think a compromise is in order. I think it should be like a coaches challenge for instant replay in sports. You get a certain number of opportunities to use them and that's it. With such a quota, Senators would have to pick their battles and couldn't just lock everything up.

I know is sounds insufficient but the filibuster isn't going away. We don't have the numbers for it even if I loved the idea. I would like to see it reformed so it wasn't abused so badly.

Aside from that, the concept of individual holds where a single Senator can block something just needs to go.

Radical Right is a self fulfilling prophecy

We don't want to lock down the economy if you would just wear a fucking mask.

There was no intention to confiscate your guns until you got violent with them.

We were all against a surveillance state until you started plotting violent overthrow of the government

No one wants there to be FEMA deprogramming camps so stop acting like you need cult deprogramming.

There was never a thought to curtailing your speech until you talked like a violent insurrectionist.

It is often hyperbole to call people Nazis but you keep doing Nazi things.

We don't want to cancel you but you continue to behave outside the boundaries of polite society.

Stop being assholes and maybe these things won't happen to you

Meanwhile...COVID is still killing us at record rates

I try not to look at individual days because reporting delays associated with weekends and holidays tend to pile up and skew the data. Seven day trends are better as smoothing the noise in the data but even that falters over a long weekend like the holidays.

So I have been waiting to see if the drop over the holidays was at all real or whether the trend line would bounce back up. As expected, the trend line bounced. As of yesterday, the 7-day average hit its all time high of 2834 and will surely go up further today. And I expect it to keep going up through next week.

So here is a prediction. Just a hunch on pretty close data monitoring and some simple logic

I think the 7-day average for deaths might peak right around Inauguration Day.

Don't get me wrong, the shit will still ravage us for months and people will still die for most of the year. But there will be a peak.

I realize that many will think this is a pollyanna prediction but here is my logic.

- Peak transmission probably happened over the holidays. Travel and get togethers being the biggest offenders.
- New Years Eve was likely smaller as a spreader event than Christmas because many gathering places would have been closed. And people are more cautious of public gatherings than they are of family gatherings
- Illness to death is about a 3-4 week lag
- Slowly but surely the vaccine will affect the death statistics. Most of the deaths are coming from the elderly and vulnerable. Since the most vulnerable people went first so that impact will be disproportional to its actual penetration into the population. So even at 50% effective (ie 1 dose) it can begin to bring down deaths sooner that you might expect.

Just my thoughts.

I think it would be perfect if that threshold happened on 1/20 just as a cosmic acknowledgment that better days were coming. It's got to be better than it has been.

No matter what, I expect that peak to be no more than a few weeks later.

I suspect we will start hearing about the Vampire Defense

You are allowed over the threshold if you are invited in.

"But, but, but I couldn't have been trespassing since the cops let us in..."

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