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octoberlib

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Gender: Female
Home country: USA
Current location: Charlotte, NC
Member since: Fri Sep 14, 2012, 01:15 AM
Number of posts: 12,779

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For those who missed it,here's Daniel Dale on Trump's dumpster fire of a press conference

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1300550576950964225

Trump begins by boasting about the stock market; he says people are very happy with their 401(k)s. He then starts boasting about the situation with the "China virus."

"I also want to provide an update on left-wing political violence," Trump says -- declining, at least at the moment, to acknowledge any right-wing role in recent events.

Trump calls Biden's speech today "strange," criticizing Biden for not specifically naming "Antifa." (Biden delivered a thorough denunciation of all violence, looting, rioting.)

Trump accusing Biden of telling a "monstrous lie" that rioters are peaceful protesters. Biden has called peaceful protesters peaceful protesters.

Trump speaks at length about violence in cities, then adds that we can control it very quickly, then says that, by the way, most of the country is very safe.

Trump says the unnamed they, on the left, want to let the Boston bomber vote. (Sanders did propose to allow people to vote from prison, but Biden rejected that idea, saying voting rights should be restored for people who've completed their sentences.)

Trump again misleadingly describes his executive order on monuments and statue damage. It does not provide for 10 years in prison. It simply cites existing laws under which 10 years is a maximum discretionary sentence.

Asked why he's not meeting with Jacob Blake's family, Trump says he spoke with "the pastor" but thought it would be better not to do anything where there would be "lawyers involved." He says he thought that was "inappropriate."

Asked why he's denouncing Biden for not mentioning left-wing violence while not mentioning right-wing violence, including Trump supporters shooting paintball guns, Trump says, "Paint is a defensive mechanism. Paint is not bullets."

It's just not true of Portland that "entire city is ablaze all the time."

! Asked about Kyle Rittenhouse, supporter accused of murder, Trump says he's looking into it but adds, "That was an interesting situation...he was trying to get away from them...looks like...and then they very violently attacked him...he probably would've been killed."

https://twitter.com/ElizLanders/status/1300562883458236417

No tightening here , folks- The Economist's pollster G. Elliott Morris

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1300510366833815552


G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
·
1h
Trump gets a statistically insignificant 2-point RNC "bounce" according to a new Emerson College poll (which we don't include because of pretty egregious data quality issues)


I don't care about the 538 rating. Emerson uses two of the most unreliable sampling procedures in the industry, then proclaims that they have fixed all the errors with post-processing, even though we know MTurk errors run deeper than that

There have been multiple news cycles this year driven by an influx of low-quality polling data, each time shoring up Trump's numbers and the betting markets—and each time they have reverted to the mean (Biden +9 or so) once we got good online and live-phone data

Y'all are free to include this type of data in your average if you want, but it's bad and we shouldn't treat it the same as eg an NYT or Pew survey https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2053168018822174

I will adjust my expectations for Trump's post-RNC bounce (currently around two points or so, and within the margin of error across surveys) once we get actual high-quality data

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1300531584668504064

It actually makes a whole lot of sense that Emerson has Trump's net approval above water (& better than his Nov numbers). One thing Pew found when they looked into low-qual data & survey marketplaces last year was a tendency for people to just spam "approve" on a lot of questions

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1300531648249966593






There's a new Emerson poll out that shows Biden ahead by 2 points nationally

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1300525358740131841


https://twitter.com/CurtMills/status/1300528672504459275/photo/1


538 which was updated 2 minutes ago had Biden at 50.2%, Trump at 43.1%

So don't panic . Last month Emerson had Biden up 4 points so he's dropped 2 points. No way Trump has 19% Black support.


Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin Arizona

+6.3 +4.7 + 5.3 +3.1


Trump's approval rating is at 43.1%

During Trump's Nov. 2019 visit to Walter Reed, Pence was told to be on standby

https://twitter.com/adamgoldmanNYT/status/1300498432503754752

Describing Trump’s unexpected November 2019 visit to Walter Reed Medical Center, he reports the White House wanted Mike Pence “on standby to take over the powers of the presidency temporarily if Trump had to undergo a procedure that would have required him to be anesthetized.”

https://twitter.com/adamgoldmanNYT/status/1300498034342744067

Some tidbits from
@nytmike
's new book: McGahn, a staunch libertarian, was frequently in over his head with the lawless president he nicknamed “King Kong,” and he struggled with his highly unusual extended contact with Mueller’s team.

More than 10,000 COVID conspiracy theorists gather in London

Huge crowd of anti-vaxxers led by David Icke gather to argue that virus is a lie spread in secret global plot organised by Bill Gates


More than 10,000 Covid-19 conspiracy theorists who believe the virus is a hoax have gathered in London's Trafalgar Square to protest against lockdown restrictions and vaccination programmes.

Demonstrators in the 'Unite for Freedom' rally - which started at noon in the capital - called for an 'end to Government lies' and the restoration of all freedoms as they marched past Downing Street towards the Houses of Parliament.

Pictures from the demonstration show Trafalgar Square almost full of protesters - none of whom are wearing masks - holding signs that brand the pandemic as a 'hoax'. When full, the square holds up to 35,000 people.

Other signs claimed masks reduce immunity and likened the restrictions to 'child torture'. One person held a homemade placard on which he had scrawled 'no to mandatory vaccines.'







David Icke is the notorious conspiracy theorist who often makes headlines for his controversial comments.

The 68-year-old former professional footballer has written more than 20 books and once tried his hand at punditry and sports reporting.

In 1991, he appeared on Sir Terry Wogan's TV chat show where he declared himself as the son of God in a now-infamous clip which he describes as a 'defining moment'. Other bizarre claims he have made include that the royal family are lizards.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8676875/Thousands-anti-maskers-believe-pandemic-HOAX-march-against-lockdown-London.html

To qualify for a full pardon, Alice Johnson had to give a speech praising Trump at the RNC

Trump was just on MSNBC signing the pardon.

Trump is expected to receive nomination in front of 1500 people

No mask mandate.


https://twitter.com/yamiche/status/1298949819139055619?s=21

Good morning from the White House where President Trump is expected to accept the Republican nomination before a crowd of some 1500 people. As of now, it’s unclear if they will all be covid tested but sources say as of now there will not be a mask mandate for attendees.

"I just finished two focus groups. All women"

https://twitter.com/sarahlongwell25/status/1298797930132971521?s=21


I just finished two focus groups. All women. All 2016 Trump voters who think he’s doing a very bad job. One group from NC, one from AZ. The two groups were wildly different. But one thing was consistent across both groups: No one is watching the conventions.

One person. One person out of both groups was watching the conventions. I had a whole series of convention-related questions that I couldn’t ask.

Immigrants in Trump-Led Ceremony Didn't Know They Would Appear at RNC

Sudha Narayanan and Neimat Awadelseid looked forward to Tuesday—the day, after a yearslong process, they would become U.S. citizens. They found out only minutes before the ceremony that President Trump would attend, and they didn’t know it would be aired during the Republican convention that night.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/immigrants-in-trump-led-ceremony-didnt-know-they-would-appear-at-rnc-11598481345


I don't have access to any more of the story because of the paywall but does this surprise anybody?

Melania getting a lot of praise from reporters. For what?

https://twitter.com/KT_So_It_Goes/status/1298583564750065664


melania’s sole accomplishment as first lady seems to have been convincing a bunch of reporters they work in her pr department


https://twitter.com/KT_So_It_Goes/status/1298603382916218882

@KT_So_It_Goes I personally feel pretty lousy for all the female reporters who seem to have this bizarre i-see-myself-in-you empathy for melania, because that shit is not normal or healthy


@KT_So_Goes I’m sorry for whatever happened to you that you can find some shared experience with her because that shared experience is undoubtedly awful

am I saying their industry is teeming with horrible power-drunk dudes who remind them of donald trump and control their career path and if you don’t play ball that’s it for you we’ll just find another one? maybe. maybe.

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