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Member since: Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:24 AM
Number of posts: 3,316

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Senate Democrats Poised to Pick Up 5-7 Seats

Senate Republicans had been doing a pretty solid job of maintaining their distance from GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump by running their own campaign that focused largely on more local issues or those issues that motivate their base. The strategy was working fine and it looked as if Republicans would be able to keep their losses low. That is until October 7 when The Washington Post reported on the existence of the Access Hollywood tape in which Trump described sexually assaulting women. Then things started to unravel, albeit slowly.

Assuming that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton wins the White House, the party needs four seats to tie the chamber, leaving the Vice President as the tie breaking vote. For much of the cycle, we have expected Democrats to score a net gain of between four and six seats. Since the release of the Access Hollywood tape, Senate Republicans have seen their fortunes dip, particularly in states like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania where Clinton has established a lead. In fact, of the Senate seats in the Toss Up column, Trump only leads in Indiana and Missouri where both Republicans are running a few points behind him.

Early voting is underway in 27 states, so Republicans donít really have much time to turn things around, and Trump wonít be any help, especially his campaign doesnít really have a ground game to speak of. The GOPís only hope is to start running a checks-and-balances message, or more blatantly, a donít-give-Clinton-a-blank-check message to motivate their base, particularly what one strategist called ďcasual Republicans,Ē to the polls. We are starting to see that message in some red and purple states as candidates work to tie Democratic candidate to Clinton.


Paying price for not supporting Trump

I think people like McCain will pay a huge price for not supporting Trump. Paul Ryan was booed yesterday for saying what he did about Trump. I saw that 75% of republicans still support him.

I think McCain loses. We win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and maybe Florida as well. I think, and hope, that the Trump voters will punish those they see. As traitors.
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