HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » BrotherIvan » Journal
Page: 1


Profile Information

Member since: Fri Jan 4, 2013, 01:49 PM
Number of posts: 9,126

Journal Archives

Mythbusting for Bernie: He's unelectable in the general

So far, the main objection to supporting Bernie Sanders is that "he can't win." So many people *wish* that he could, would support him if he could, but believe only an avalanche of corporate ca$h and the support of insiders, kingmakers, and superdelegates can get a candidate across the finish line. They don't believe the general public will vote for a Socialist! (even a Democratic Socialist because no one knows the difference). The outcome is a Republican president and a conservative SCOTUS for the rest of our lives.

Here is an analysis via DKos from November 2014. It shows that it is almost statistically impossible for a Republican to win a presidential national election.


In a careful analysis, Ladd builds a case: The Midterms of 2014 demonstrate the continuation of a 20 year old trend. Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level where the population is the largest utilizing a declining electoral base of waging, white, and rural voters. As a result no GOP candidate on the horizon has a chance at the White House in 2016 and the chance of holding the Senate beyond 2016 is vanishingly small.

The author points to the Blue Wall.


The Blue Wall is a block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. On Election Day that block added New Hampshire to its number and Virginia is shifting. At the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. If Virginia joins New Hampshire that number will be 270 out of 270.

To win a GOP candidate has to win all nine “tossup” state and one solidly Blue state. Thus, in the next, and into the foreseeable future, Presidential elections will be decided in the Democratic Primary. What are the chances that a Republican candidate capable of appealing to the increasingly right wing GOP will appeal to enough Democrats to win in tossup and Blue states?

But what about that RED Map….well it accounts for 149 electoral votes. The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. What was Red before in electoral politics is still Red (and maybe less Red considering NH and VA).

So let's remember that and share this information far and wide: Presidential elections are decided in the Democratic Primary.

The Republicans will be nominating a racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-immigration, right wing Christian because that is the only one who can get past the primary. I am 99.99% sure that person is Jeb Bush, a candidate so awful, so shocking, I doubt he's going to attract a lot of moderate Democratic or Independent voters. The same can be said for anyone in the clown car. Libertarians, Greens, and young Independents are flocking to Bernie in droves and I believe anyone who isn't a bible/gun thumper on the Republican side will too due to his populist message.

Keep remembering and don't let the propaganda get to you--Bernie can win. If he wins the primary, he wins the general.

Go to Page: 1