Wow.

That's a mistake I wouldn't want to make. Apparently Greuel started out with a big advantage, being both the labor candidate, a winner in Dem LA, and with a base in the SF Valley, conservative suburbia, where she grew up and where her old council district is (she's been city controller for about ten years I think).

But it seems she lost Valley voters when she got the DWP (water and powert dep't) union endorsement, because it turns out Valley voters need a lot of water and power in the summer and despise the DWP and the union wages and benefits it pays its workers. So that's why Greuel became the conservative candidate, and lost a lot of non-valley support to Garcetti, who wound up getting most of the DWP-hating valley dwellers anyway, per the LA Times pollster.

So essentially Garcetti out-campaigned her and came from behind to win, but politically they're very compatible, almost identical, and that worked against Greuel because it led to a low voter turnout, even for May -- 300,000+ and still counting, but probably less than 1/4 of eligible voters when it's over, per Ralph Schoenfeldt of the Pat Brown Institute at Cal State LA -- and a lot of Greuel voters stayed home. She was strongly supported by African American voters, according to the LAT pollster, I think because of her support for after-school and community programs, but they couldn't make up the loss.

So the long and short of it is that it was a win-win and Garcetti happened to win. Some interesting Clinton-Obama dynamics too but instead of tediously spelling it out like I did in a humongous post I just lost when my laptop choked (thanks Romney! ) I recommend the LA Times YouTube above. It's about 2 hours and the first 2 or 3 minutes are blank. The really juicy race-gender-Cinton-Obama polling stuff comes in the middle, at around 55 to 65 minutes. Patt and Ralph don't show up till about 1:30 but there's plenty to keep a DU political junkie in bliss the whole two hours!

thaks CHa, I"m pretty sure it's a non partisan race.

Last time I lived in LA Eric's city council district started across the street (well more or less) in echo park. Good guy, low key unlike his dad, who was a publicity seeker when he was DA, like his mentor Ira Reiner. Reiner either quit or lost to Garcetti pere after losing the McMartin Preschool case, a very nasty business, and Gil (Eric's dad) lost or quit after losing OJ. At least that's how I recall it.

Anyway it was hard to get a fix on who was winning even by people living there and Gruel was the clear media favorite so every time they appeared in local media (like local NPR stations) they always made her seem like a fait accompli. Turns out it wasn't. She wasn't terrible, in fact she was backed by the DWP and I think a couple of other City unions, but apparently she played that down and kind of ran as the stealth republican, or just assumed she'd win. Eric I know more about and I'm glad he won. But apparently it surprised everybody, especially the 8-point margin.

LA Times discussion with 2 local regulars, Patt Morrison and Ralph SHoensein:

Los Angeles councilman Eric Garcetti has earned the misfortune of replacing term-limited Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa this July. The bright-eyed, 42-year-old Democrat may have had higher ambitions, but his political future now looks as hazy as the Los Angeles sky.

Mr. Garcetti defeated controller Wendy Greuel by eight points in what is being reported as the most expensive and lowest turnout race in the city's history. The political upstart focused his attacks on Ms. Greuel's labor support, which she unsuccessfully sought to down play. But her bigger failing was that she didn't have a plan to revive economic growth in the city or to balance its lopsided books without rescinding a pay increase for public employees or modifying retirement benefits.

Mr. Garcetti presented a more optimistic vision and at least paid lip service to economic growth. He also won the endorsement of Republican Kevin James, who came in third place in the March primary, as well as the support of the Hollywood celebrities Mr. Garcetti represents on the city council. He promised to re-make Los Angeles in Hollywood's chic image—e.g., carless—and L.A. drivers presumably didn't hold this against him.

more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324659404578498882049036200.html

Weiner handles himself expertly in YouTube released Tuesday night

Admitting that he has a hard road ahead and showing a firm resolve, former House Member Anthony Weiner announced his bid for Mayor of New York in a video released on You Tube Tuesday night. Weiner is trying to make a political comeback, two years after he resigned after posting raunchy pictures on Twitter. (May 22)

Eric Garcetti wins race for L.A. mayor; Greuel concedes

Source: Los Angeles Times


Garcetti's victory caps a nearly two-year campaign that saw a record $33 million spent by the candidates and outside groups.

By Seema Mehta and Laura J. Nelson
May 22, 2013, 3:27 a.m.

Wendy Greuel called Eric Garcetti early Wednesday morning to concede the mayoral election, a Greuel campaign source told the Times, ending a two-year campaign to determine Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's successor and the new political leader of Los Angeles.

Garcetti will be the first elected Jewish mayor of the city. At 42, he will also be the youngest in more than a century. He is scheduled to take office July 1. "Thank you Los Angeles," Garcetti wrote in a Tweet posted at 2:52 a.m. "The hard work begins but I am honored to lead this city for the next four years. Let's make this a great city again."

During early returns Tuesday, Greuel led the mayor's race by a slight margin. But as the night wore on, Garcetti's lead grew. Election tallies from the City Clerk's office posted at 1:38 a.m., with nearly 73% of precincts reporting, showed Greuel had fallen eight points behind Garcetti.

After seeing those numbers—Greuel 46%, Garcetti 54%—she called Garcetti at 1:42 a.m. to concede the race.

Read more: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-ln-garcetti-wins-race-for-mayor-20130522,0,6850215.story

*AHEM* Important announcement! Please read carefully:

Yes folks, it's official:



The long lost dollar has come back to the fold!

Also: unemployment DOWN, housing starts UP, consumer confidence UP, approval ratings UP

good grief, even optimism is up:

For the first time since the 100-day mark of Obama’s first term, most say they are optimistic about the direction of the economy. More than half, 56 percent, say the economy is on the mend, the most to say so in polls since 2009.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obamas-rating-steady-amid-controversies-likely-buoyed-by-rising-economic-hopes/2013/05/20/5509c03e-c17f-11e2-bfdb-3886a561c1ff_story.html?hpid=z2

"He asked me if I was OK."

A beautiful, beautiful trhead LFR. KnR.



p.s.

Nate Silver - Is the Economy Saving Obama’s Approval Ratings?

May 21, 2013, 8:04 am 28 Comments

Political coverage over the last week has focused on a series of stories that reflect negatively on the executive branch — but President Obama’s approval ratings have held steady. As of Monday, Mr. Obama’s Gallup approval rating was 49 percent — the same as it was, on average, in April. Mr. Obama’s Rasmussen Reports approval rating was 48 percent, not much changed from an average of 50 percent in April. Mr. Obama’s approval rating in a CNN poll published on Sunday was 53 percent, little different from 51 percent in their April survey. And in a Washington Post-ABC News poll, Mr. Obama’s approval rating was 51 percent, essentially unchanged from 50 percent in April.

There are a lot of theories as to why Mr. Obama’s approval ratings have been unchanged in the wake of these controversies, which some news accounts and many of Mr. Obama’s opponents are describing as scandals. But these analyses may proceed from the wrong premise if they assume that the stories have had no impact. It could be that the controversies are, in fact, putting some downward pressure on Mr. Obama’s approval ratings — but that the losses are offset by improved voter attitudes about the economy.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/is-the-economy-saving-obamas-approval-ratings/?smid=tw-fivethirtyeight&seid=auto

It's also possible that the public saw a side of the BO admin they weren't aware of.

National security is an important issue to many voters, largely thanks to the Wurlitzer media, and many people were probably unaware that Obama and especially Holder have actually been paying attention and doing their jobs. Surprise, they're doing it better than the last administration.

Last April Chomsky gave an acid interview to Alternet professing not to know why Obama makes a point of mentioning his leak prosecutions. Well Noam, that's why. But as usual CNN ignores the real issue and misses the point by miles.

Reuters via HuffPo, Aug. 22, 2012: This Parrot is Dead

"Julian Assange, WikiLeaks Founder, Faces No Criminal Charges In U.S., Sources Say"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/julian-assange-wikileaks-no-criminal-charges-in-us_n_1823159.html

Whatever hope Assange and friends may have cherished of getting the US to play hide and seek with them has evidently been extinguished. But as long as his peroxide supply holds up at the Embassy I imagine he can play the fugitive indefinitely.