February 20, 2016

Nevada Exit Polls (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-nevada-democratic-caucus-entrance-poll-analysis/story?id=37077053

About an even split, overall, and no clear indication of a winner.

February 20, 2016

Nevada Caucus Results (Hillary Clinton Group)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/nevada/

You can watch them come in live here! Results should start showing sometime from mid to late afternoon, Eastern time.

February 19, 2016

No Dual Voting in NV (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/270051-nevada-dems-threaten-prosecution-for-anyone-participating-in-caucuses-under

The party has threatened prosecution for anybody who votes twice, once in the Dem and once in the Rep primaries.

So although my title's a bit hyperbolic, at least it should reduce the ratty behavior a bit tomorrow...if there's one thing Repubs don't like, it's sunlight when they're trying to cheat.

February 19, 2016

Telemundo Town Hall (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/watch-live-msnbc-and-telemundo-air-town-hall-featuring-democratic-presidential-candidates/

Live feed here, on right now--sorry, I missed the first hour with Sanders except for a very short bit. It should also be on your MSNBC channel.

February 18, 2016

Sanders' Nomination Path (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

This is an interesting article, but one that I feel has several weaknesses (and an article that doesn't enamor me to Silver's supposed skill).

It ignores the differences between open and closed caucuses/primaries for the most part, and very much ignores the idea that shifting states by arbitrary and equal amounts don't directly reflect the national polling.

Still, it's interesting. Right now, it would seem that Clinton is polling about +7 nationally by this chart.

February 15, 2016

Revolt Against Superdelegates (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-superdelegates-democrats-219286

As we know, Clinton commands a wide lead in superdelegates...therefore the process itself is corrupt, unfair, and must be abolished.

I've tried to point out to these sorts that the Primary process is not an election, it's the decision as to who will represent the Democratic Party. Of course the officials (the vast majority of whom ARE THEMSELVES elected to office) get a say as to who they can and are willing to work with--or simply prefer.

In a more personal observation, I feel that any candidate should read, understand, and realize that they have to play by the rules before running for office in a given party.

February 14, 2016

ARG SC Poll: Clinton Well Ahead at +38 (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/scdem.html

This is another terrible poll, with a weight at 538 of a scant 0.40. However, as in NV, it's the only recent poll we have in SC.

In this case, Clinton performs at +38 over Sanders in SC.

ARG rates a C- at 538, mostly due to large errors. Their lean is Republican +0.1 on average, so at least they're non-partisan. Ratings are listed here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

February 12, 2016

TargetPoint Nevada: Dead Tie (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/nv-toplines.pdf

538 gives this poll a fairly low weight, and given the questions, you can see why. There's a definite lean in the candidate questions.

They've also chosen 55% first time caucus-goers, a number that's not borne out by Iowa and New Hampshire.

Still, it's a starting data point and might assist Clinton in places where she could shore up her constituency.

February 10, 2016

Polls are closing in NH!

Cross your fingers, off we go...

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/

February 7, 2016

NH New Franklin Pierce Herald Poll! (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/franklin_pierce_herald_poll_clinton_sanders_just_7_points_apart

Seven. Points. In my old idle guessing game, that puts the Sanders campaign in "Danger of Serious National Shutout" territory once we pass NH.

Now, NH is notoriously hard to poll, but Mrs. Clinton does have a reputation as the Comeback Kid in NH, as well as an excellent ground game.

From the article:

The Vermont socialist senator was beating the former Secretary of State by a 57-37 percent margin right before the caucuses, but he now clings to just a 51-44 percent lead, according to the new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll of 407 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Feb. 2-6.

Clinton's favorable rating increased to 75 percent since Iowa and she also regained some of her aura of inevitability, with 61 percent saying she'll be the nominee while just 27 percent picking Sanders - a 13 point margin increase since last weekend.