February 5, 2016

Looking to New Hampshire (Hillary Clinton Group)

I was thinking about this during the debates, and please feel free to criticize the below.

NH is pretty much a foregone conclusion as a Sanders win. The question remains...how much? Data from mid-week showed Sanders about +30 points ahead in the state and this time we'll see voting totals.

Personally, I expect some buyer's remorse post his slight loss in IA. The thing to watch for is erosion of that +30 as "protest voters" come home at the realization that a vote for Sanders really could make him the Democratic candidate.

The bands I've idly come up with are:

Clinton Win: Highly improbable, but on the extremely off chance it happens, Sanders' campaign effectively ends right there.

Sanders +0 to +10: Severe cracks showing in the Sanders campaign. While not the effective end, the long term outlook is a certain Clinton win faster than expected.

Sanders +10 to +15: Significant erosion of support. Clinton's win is still expected, but not as quickly.

Sanders +15 to +25: Around what I'd expect. The prognosis is still demographically good for Clinton with a probable win, but this will stretch well into May.

Sanders +25 to +35: Sanders performing well. Clinton still probably wins, but this goes into June as we approach the convention. The superdelegate vote now becomes quite important.

Sanders +35 or greater: An extremely good performance for Sanders and Clinton would be wise to change her tactics at this point. Her win is no longer certain (but by no means impossible).

February 3, 2016

Bets on NH Primary? (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

538 currently has NH at +12.8 Sanders.

Does anybody want to pitch in an estimate at this point? I'm betting the race tightens, and I'm putting a gentleperson's bet on Sanders +10 when all is said and done.

February 2, 2016

Sanders wants raw votes released

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/bernie-sanders-requests-vote-count-tight-finish-iowa-caucus-clinton

Presented without comment, because I'm certain all you good people are thinking the same and will happily say it.

From the article:

“I honestly don’t know what happened. I know there are some precincts that have still not reported. I can only hope and expect that the count will be honest,” he said. “I have no idea. Did we win the popular vote? I don’t know, but as much information as possible should be made available.”

February 1, 2016

Quinnipac Sanders +3

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia02012016_Ifsmb28.pdf

Quinnipac's new poll today puts Sanders up +3 over Clinton in the Iowa caucus.

It's interesting to note that the history of the Quinnipac polls over the last three has been Sanders +5, Sanders +4, and now Sanders +3.

The release notes that both Sanders and Trump are heavily dependent on first-time caucus-goers.