tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN: The Invisible Presidency
"Has there ever been a less visible or newsworthy president than Joe Biden, at least in the modern media era?It’s a great question to ponder as Biden seeks reelection by an American public from whom he has largely been kept hidden.
We probably do not have to “prove” the premise that Biden is indeed our most invisible president. But we will offer one data point: In the month of August The New York Times pushed out a total of 31 “Breaking News” alerts that were, broadly speaking, of a political nature. Only one of these alerts mentioned Joe Biden by name -- and even that one was not because of an action on his part, but rather when the Supreme Court revived Biden’s policy on “ghost” guns. Donald Trump garnered eleven mentions, murdered Russian mutineer Yevgheny Prigozhin had two, Rudy Giuliani, Hunter Biden and Clarence Thomas each had one, and George Santos (actually in reference to one of his aides) and Kevin McCarthy (whom the aide impersonated) shared one. Such a low share of the political space was unheard of not only in Trump’s times, but it is hard to envision that any recent president would go a month – even August – making such little news.
For the leader of the free world, Biden is pulling off a remarkable feat in hiding in plain sight. This is, of course, a very conscious strategy, one employed for two excellent reasons..."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/09/btrtn-invisible-presidency.html
BTRTN: The Invisible Presidency
"Has there ever been a less visible or newsworthy president than Joe Biden, at least in the modern media era?It’s a great question to ponder as Biden seeks reelection by an American public from whom he has largely been kept hidden.
We probably do not have to “prove” the premise that Biden is indeed our most invisible president. But we will offer one data point: In the month of August The New York Times pushed out a total of 31 “Breaking News” alerts that were, broadly speaking, of a political nature. Only one of these alerts mentioned Joe Biden by name -- and even that one was not because of an action on his part, but rather when the Supreme Court revived Biden’s policy on “ghost” guns. Donald Trump garnered eleven mentions, murdered Russian mutineer Yevgheny Prigozhin had two, Rudy Giuliani, Hunter Biden and Clarence Thomas each had one, and George Santos (actually in reference to one of his aides) and Kevin McCarthy (whom the aide impersonated) shared one. Such a low share of the political space was unheard of not only in Trump’s times, but it is hard to envision that any recent president would go a month – even August – making such little news.
For the leader of the free world, Biden is pulling off a remarkable feat in hiding in plain sight. This is, of course, a very conscious strategy, one employed for two excellent reasons..."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/09/btrtn-invisible-presidency.html
BTRTN Election 2024 Point/Counterpoint: Who Will Win the GOP Nomination, Trump or DeSantis?
Point: "Don’t underestimate Trump. He may be wounded but he is hardly done. In fact, Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee in 2024, barring some truly incredible unforeseen circumstance or event. And by “unforeseen” I don’t mean an indictment or even jail time. Those, at this point, are foreseeable. I mean something truly unforeseen. And it is hard to imagine just what, at this point, that could possibly be. It all boils down to two essential facts: 1) Trump has unshakeable control over roughly 40% of the Republican Party, and those “Unshakeables” are far more likely than other Republicans to vote in primaries. 2) Trump’s opponents, including Ron DeSantis, cannot afford to attack Trump at will, because they need those Unshakeables behind them to have a prayer of winning in November, 2024. But here's the catch -- how you defeat Trump without attacking him...?"
Counterpoint: "Donald Trump has no idea what is about to hit him. Huh? Sure, the current wisdom is that Ron DeSantis will be eaten alive by the vicious, candidacy-destroying venom of Donald Trump, just as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz found in 2016. Well, there’s a case to be made for pretty much exactly the opposite: that Trump has never been put on the defensive by a hyper-aggressive, uber-ambitious killer with an instinct for the jugular. Trump has never faced an opponent who is as natively cruel and soullessly Machiavellian as Ron DeSantis. This is going to be a battle to the death between two velociraptors, and this bet is on the younger, more prepared raptor..."
BTRTN Election 2024 Point/Counterpoint: Who Will Win the GOP Nomination, Trump or DeSantis?
Point: "Don’t underestimate Trump. He may be wounded but he is hardly done. In fact, Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee in 2024, barring some truly incredible unforeseen circumstance or event. And by “unforeseen” I don’t mean an indictment or even jail time. Those, at this point, are foreseeable. I mean something truly unforeseen. And it is hard to imagine just what, at this point, that could possibly be. It all boils down to two essential facts: 1) Trump has unshakeable control over roughly 40% of the Republican Party, and those “Unshakeables” are far more likely than other Republicans to vote in primaries. 2) Trump’s opponents, including Ron DeSantis, cannot afford to attack Trump at will, because they need those Unshakeables behind them to have a prayer of winning in November, 2024. But here's the catch -- how you defeat Trump without attacking him...?"
Counterpoint: "Donald Trump has no idea what is about to hit him. Huh? Sure, the current wisdom is that Ron DeSantis will be eaten alive by the vicious, candidacy-destroying venom of Donald Trump, just as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz found in 2016. Well, there’s a case to be made for pretty much exactly the opposite: that Trump has never been put on the defensive by a hyper-aggressive, uber-ambitious killer with an instinct for the jugular. Trump has never faced an opponent who is as natively cruel and soullessly Machiavellian as Ron DeSantis. This is going to be a battle to the death between two velociraptors, and this bet is on the younger, more prepared raptor..."
BTRTN Election 2024 Point/Counterpoint: Who Will Win the GOP Nomination, Trump or DeSantis?
Point: "Don’t underestimate Trump. He may be wounded but he is hardly done. In fact, Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee in 2024, barring some truly incredible unforeseen circumstance or event. And by “unforeseen” I don’t mean an indictment or even jail time. Those, at this point, are foreseeable. I mean something truly unforeseen. And it is hard to imagine just what, at this point, that could possibly be. It all boils down to two essential facts: 1) Trump has unshakeable control over roughly 40% of the Republican Party, and those “Unshakeables” are far more likely than other Republicans to vote in primaries. 2) Trump’s opponents, including Ron DeSantis, cannot afford to attack Trump at will, because they need those Unshakeables behind them to have a prayer of winning in November, 2024. But here's the catch -- how you defeat Trump without attacking him...?"
Counterpoint: "Donald Trump has no idea what is about to hit him. Huh? Sure, the current wisdom is that Ron DeSantis will be eaten alive by the vicious, candidacy-destroying venom of Donald Trump, just as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz found in 2016. Well, there’s a case to be made for pretty much exactly the opposite: that Trump has never been put on the defensive by a hyper-aggressive, uber-ambitious killer with an instinct for the jugular. Trump has never faced an opponent who is as natively cruel and soullessly Machiavellian as Ron DeSantis. This is going to be a battle to the death between two velociraptors, and this bet is on the younger, more prepared raptor..."
The best site for analytically assessing the baseball Hall of Fame ballot
It’s that time of year again…the votes have begun to be tabulated for the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) Hall of Fame (HOF) ballot. The BBWAA voting is underway now and the results will be announced on January 24, 2023. Each year we at BTRTN analyze the ballot – in-depth, analytically -- to answer two questions:1) Which nominees do we predict will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the BBWAA?
2) Who do we think amongst the nominees deserves to be in the HOF, based on our own analysis (and opinions)?
The two lists are never identical...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html
The best site for analytically assessing the baseball Hall of Fame ballot
It’s that time of year again…the votes have begun to be tabulated for the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) Hall of Fame (HOF) ballot. The BBWAA voting is underway now and the results will be announced on January 24, 2023. Each year we at BTRTN analyze the ballot – in-depth, analytically -- to answer two questions:1) Which nominees do we predict will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the BBWAA?
2) Who do we think amongst the nominees deserves to be in the HOF, based on our own analysis (and opinions)?
The two lists are never identical...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html
The best site for analytically assessing the baseball Hall of Fame ballot
It’s that time of year again…the votes have begun to be tabulated for the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) Hall of Fame (HOF) ballot. The BBWAA voting is underway now and the results will be announced on January 24, 2023. Each year we at BTRTN analyze the ballot – in-depth, analytically -- to answer two questions:1) Which nominees do we predict will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the BBWAA?
2) Who do we think amongst the nominees deserves to be in the HOF, based on our own analysis (and opinions)?
The two lists are never identical...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html
What is so hard about this? On the clear value of vaccines. PLEASE, pass it around.
From CNN:
As the US approaches two years since its first Covid-19 vaccinations, a new study shows the vaccines have kept more than 18 million people out of the hospital and saved more than 3 million lives. Researchers from the Commonwealth Fund and Yale School of Public Health found that without Covid-19 vaccines, the nation would have had 1.5 times more infections, 3.8 times more hospitalizations and 4.1 times more deaths than it did between December 2020 and November 2022, according to the study. To date, Covid-19 has caused at least 99 million cases and more than 1 million deaths in the US, data from the CDC shows. The study estimates that the vaccinations were also a good financial bet, saving the US $1.15 trillion in medical costs.
These guys absolutely nailed the Georgia runoff...
Right down to the tenth of a percetage point...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-midterms-our-prediction-for.html
They did amazingly well on the midterms, too.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-how-we-nailed-midterms-with-near.html
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