tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss
"This is an “off off year” election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.
There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of “ticket splitting,” that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Biden’s brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.
As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers – not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Biden’s margin of victory in the two states in last year’s election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Biden’s well-documented troubles."
Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html
BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss
"This is an “off off year” election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.
There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of “ticket splitting,” that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Biden’s brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.
As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers – not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Biden’s margin of victory in the two states in last year’s election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Biden’s well-documented troubles."
Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html
BTRTN: Part 7, The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Basketball Takes a Back Seat
Latest installment in an annual series of articles about the basketball star....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/10/btrtn-part-7-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
And now we come to this past year, perhaps the strangest and most wildly divergent of them all, a year in which, for a variety of reasons, basketball took a backseat. Never was there a year when Lin was more irrelevant on the basketball court – completing the COVID-suspended CBA season in the summer of 2020, and then, in 2021, toiling for a mere 9 games in the NBA’s G-League in a quixotic effort to return to the NBA – or more relevant off it, when he achieved global acclaim yet again, this time by embracing his status as a spokesperson for Asian-Americans in the wake of racist and violent acts against the AAPI community, a consequence of the COVID pandemic. Once again it was a year replete with even more extraordinary highs and the lowest of lows.
BTRTN: Part 7, The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Basketball Takes a Back Seat
Latest installment in an annual series of articles about the basketball star....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/10/btrtn-part-7-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
And now we come to this past year, perhaps the strangest and most wildly divergent of them all, a year in which, for a variety of reasons, basketball took a backseat. Never was there a year when Lin was more irrelevant on the basketball court – completing the COVID-suspended CBA season in the summer of 2020, and then, in 2021, toiling for a mere 9 games in the NBA’s G-League in a quixotic effort to return to the NBA – or more relevant off it, when he achieved global acclaim yet again, this time by embracing his status as a spokesperson for Asian-Americans in the wake of racist and violent acts against the AAPI community, a consequence of the COVID pandemic. Once again it was a year replete with even more extraordinary highs and the lowest of lows.
BTRTN: Part 7, The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Basketball Takes a Back Seat
Latest installment in an annual series of articles about the basketball star....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/10/btrtn-part-7-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
And now we come to this past year, perhaps the strangest and most wildly divergent of them all, a year in which, for a variety of reasons, basketball took a backseat. Never was there a year when Lin was more irrelevant on the basketball court – completing the COVID-suspended CBA season in the summer of 2020, and then, in 2021, toiling for a mere 9 games in the NBA’s G-League in a quixotic effort to return to the NBA – or more relevant off it, when he achieved global acclaim yet again, this time by embracing his status as a spokesperson for Asian-Americans in the wake of racist and violent acts against the AAPI community, a consequence of the COVID pandemic. Once again it was a year replete with even more extraordinary highs and the lowest of lows.
BTRTN: Biden Battles to Avoid Dreaded "B" Word
Born To Run The Numbers on how the Biden administration's recent string of setbacks invites the invoking of the one word that must not be uttered: "beleaguered."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/10/btrtn-biden-battles-to-avoid-dreaded-b.html
Excerpts: "It is a word that conjures up images of LBJ after Tet, Carter and the botched hostage rescue attempt, and George W. Bush after Katrina. And while those singular events may have triggered the label, each were a culmination of sorts, the crushing blow in a series of disasters. It is the kiss of death for an administration – note the single-term fates of the three presidents mentioned above -- a term that implies not only incompetence but also the sense of being overwhelmed by events, and ill-suited to manage them...
"Biden is not quite at 'beleaguered' yet. But he and his administration are certainly in a bad stretch, which began with the messy Afghanistan pull-out and continued with the revelation that the revenge attack against ISIS-K instead killed an innocent family; the apparently needless blindsiding of France in an arms deal with the UK and Australia; a Haitian migrant crush under a bridge in Texas; the persistence of COVID, where the corner has yet to be turned and confusion still reigns amongst policy guidance emanating from the FDA, CDC and the Administration; and then the current hot button, the legislative pile-up of 'hard' and 'soft' infrastructure legislation, an epic budget resolution (now resolved) and an economy-threatening impasse on raising the debt ceiling...
"The problem with these issues – apart from the substance – is that each undercuts one of Biden’s supposed core strengths ...
"But the question is, can Biden, the LBJ-wannabe, display the skills required to get it all through, a la the 'Master of the Senate' himself? To avoid that "B' word, it is surely time for Biden to start tugging on some lapels."
BTRTN: Turns Out Donald Trump Can't Go Out and Shoot Someone on Fifth Avenue, After All
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-turns-out-donald-trump-cant-go.html"Most Americans were stunned to see the images of right wing thugs and vigilantes parading Confederate flags through the halls of the U.S. Capitol, casually hoisting their boots onto the desks in Congressional offices, and succeeding in temporarily disturbing the mechanics of our democracy… all acting on the direct orders of the Domestic Terrorist-in-Chief, the President of the United States.
Few could fathom – in spite of all the warnings -- that Donald Trump would take the final step of actually inciting violence and bloodshed in his quest to retain the Presidency. This, even though Trump said clearly in that first Presidential Debate – the “POTUS Interruptus” fiasco – that the Proud Boys should “stand back and stand by.” Even though Trump has been stoking his supporters with baseless assertions of “election fraud” since well before November. Even though Trump had broadcast the date of the final certification of the Electoral College tally by Congress as the day he would hold a rally of his supporters in Washington, D.C.
I must admit, however, that watching the videos of the presumed insurrectionist swarming the Capitol did not make me existentially worried for our Republic. These people appeared to be no more capable of mounting an actual coup than conquering high school math. Based on their casual swagger, one suspects that the majority of them have absolutely no idea of the gravity of the crimes that they were committing..."
BTRTN: Turns Out Donald Trump Can't Go Out and Shoot Someone on Fifth Avenue, After All
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-turns-out-donald-trump-cant-go.html"Most Americans were stunned to see the images of right wing thugs and vigilantes parading Confederate flags through the halls of the U.S. Capitol, casually hoisting their boots onto the desks in Congressional offices, and succeeding in temporarily disturbing the mechanics of our democracy… all acting on the direct orders of the Domestic Terrorist-in-Chief, the President of the United States.
Few could fathom – in spite of all the warnings -- that Donald Trump would take the final step of actually inciting violence and bloodshed in his quest to retain the Presidency. This, even though Trump said clearly in that first Presidential Debate – the “POTUS Interruptus” fiasco – that the Proud Boys should “stand back and stand by.” Even though Trump has been stoking his supporters with baseless assertions of “election fraud” since well before November. Even though Trump had broadcast the date of the final certification of the Electoral College tally by Congress as the day he would hold a rally of his supporters in Washington, D.C.
I must admit, however, that watching the videos of the presumed insurrectionist swarming the Capitol did not make me existentially worried for our Republic. These people appeared to be no more capable of mounting an actual coup than conquering high school math. Based on their casual swagger, one suspects that the majority of them have absolutely no idea of the gravity of the crimes that they were committing..."
BTRTN was the only site to accurately predict a Dem sweep in the Georgia Senate Runoffs
"Our official BTRTN prediction for the Georgia Senate runoffs is that Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will both win by narrow margins, 51% to 49% (or closer), giving the Democrats control of the Senate. This election could take days or even weeks to sort out."(And then goes through the logic...)
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-our-predictions-for-georgias.html
This also validates the BTRTN prediction from last November, which was entitled: "BTRTN 2020 Official Election Predictions: Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta"
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/11/btrtn-2020-official-election.html
BTRTN was the only site to accurately predict a Dem sweep in the Georgia Senate Runoffs
"Our official BTRTN prediction for the Georgia Senate runoffs is that Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will both win by narrow margins, 51% to 49% (or closer), giving the Democrats control of the Senate. This election could take days or even weeks to sort out."(And then goes through the logic...)
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-our-predictions-for-georgias.html
This also validates the BTRTN predictionfrom last November, which was entitled: "BTRTN 2020 Official Election Predictions: Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta"
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/11/btrtn-2020-official-election.html
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