forest444
forest444's JournalWhy Macri’s win is bad news for Argentina - and the entire region.
By Mark Weisbrot.
The election of right-wing candidate Mauricio Macri as Argentina’s president on Sunday, which was unexpected just a few months ago, is a setback for Argentina and for South America.
In the past 13 years, Argentina made enormous economic and social progress. Under the Kirchners (Néstor, until 2007, and since then Cristina Fernández de Kirchner), real GDP doubled, poverty fell by about 70%, and extreme poverty fell by 80% - even based on independent estimates of inflation. Unemployment likewise fell from more than 17.2% in 2003 to 5.9% in 2015, according to the International Monetary Fund.
But Daniel Scioli, of the populist Peronist Front for Victory party currently led by outgoing President Fernández de Kirchner, did not do a good job defending these achievements. He also didn’t articulate what he would do to fix the country’s current economic problems. In the past four years, growth has been slow (averaging about 1.8%), inflation has been high (25%), and a black market for the dollar has developed. This gave Macri (and his Cambiemos, or “Let’s Change” coalition) an opening to present himself as the candidate of a better future.
With skilled marketing help from an Ecuadorean public relations firm, Macri defined himself as something far more moderate than he is likely to be, winning over voters who might otherwise be afraid of a return to the pre-Kirchner depression years.
Some of the things Macri has indicated he would do could have a positive impact, if done correctly. He will likely cut a deal with vulture funds that have been holding more than 90% of Argentina’s creditors hostage since New York judge Thomas Griesa ruled in 2014 that the government is not allowed to pay them. If the cost isn’t too high, it could reopen a path for Argentina to return to international borrowing—something Scioli would likely have also done.
A liberalization of the exchange rate that got rid of the black market could be a big step forward. But much depends on how it is done: If it causes inflation to spike and the government does nothing to protect poor and working people, they could lose a lot.
Macri may also take measures to bring down inflation, which is something that needs to be done - but he’s likely to do so by shrinking the economy. He wants to reduce the central government budget deficit, which will instead grow as a percentage of GDP once austerity triggers recession. Given his ideology, there is serious risk of a downward spiral of austerity and recession, as the country suffered from 1998 to 2001. If there is inflation from the devaluation, this could make matters worse.
In his campaign statements, Macri made it clear that he is against a government role in promoting industry, so the country’s economic development is likely to suffer as a result. He has proposed tax cuts for upper-income groups. That suggests that budget cuts are in the offing, since Macri has pledged to reduce the government budget deficit. The majority of Argentines are likely to suffer from such an economic transition.
Macri won’t have a working majority in Congress, so it’s unclear how much he can do.
Macri has demonstrated his loyalty to the United States government - something previously made clear in confidential U.S. Embassy cables published by WikiLeaks (in which Macri personally asked the State Department to harass Argentina for his own benefit).
One of his very first statements after the election was to denounce Venezuela and threaten to have the country suspended from the Mercosur trading bloc of South American nations. The issue wasn’t of concern to Argentine voters, so it may very well be related to a U.S.-led international campaign to delegitimize Venezuela’s government and its Dec. 6 elections - something no other South American president would do. Macri runs a serious risk of damaging relations in the Western Hemisphere if he continues down this road.
Washington has maintained a policy of “rollback” and “containment” against almost all of the leftist governments that have won elections in the 21st century. So there is quite a bit of excitement among the business and foreign policy elite over the wave of setbacks among Latin America’s left, with Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff facing a recession and political crisis and Venezuela’s ruling Chavistas even more so. Articles are already sprouting up, welcoming the long-awaited "demise" of the Latin American left.
But reports of this demise, to paraphrase Mark Twain, are somewhat exaggerated. A more likely outcome is like what we saw in Chile, where a lackluster candidate was unable to take advantage of Socialist Party President Michelle Bachelet’s 80% approval rating and lost to a right-wing billionaire in 2010. He lasted four years, and then the country went back to Bachelet.
Argentina and the surrounding region have changed too much over the past 15 years to return to the neoliberal, neocolonial past. The Washington foreign policy establishment may not understand this, but Macri’s handlers did. That’s why they took the trouble to package him during the campaign as something very different from what he is.
At: http://fortune.com/2015/11/24/mauricio-macri-presidential-win-bad-for-argentina/
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Nevertheless, my hope is that Macri may yet find it in himself to show moderation and restraint. If not for his country, at least to avoid the same fate the last IMF devotee had.
Employees repudiate 'La Nación' op-ed advocating end to human rights abuse trials in Argentina.
Workers at the right-wing Buenos Aires newspaper La Nación held an assembly yesterday afternoon at its headquarters to repudiate an editorial published today at the daily entitled "Stop the Revenge," which posits that Sunday's election of Mauricio Macri as president "is a propitious time to finish with the lies about what happened in the 1970s" and to "put things in their place."
The op-ed piece, published anonymously, called on President-elect Macri to put an end to ongoing trials for crimes against humanity involving around 1,000 former officers implicated in Argentina's Dirty War. The offensive resulted in up to 30,000 people tortured and killed between 1975 and 1979 and hundreds of millions in absconded property.
The most urgent issue affecting the defendants, according to the piece, is "the shameful suffering of those convicted, prosecuted, and even suspected of crimes committed during the years of repression against subversives, some of whom (the former officers) are in prison despite advanced age."
"We are proud to see so many coworkers repudiate the publisher. Today we are meeting at 4:00 pm to discuss the issue," stated Guido Molteni, delegate of the newspaper's internal commission, in his Twitter account. Reporters and editorial staff from numerous other Argentine newspapers joined La Nación staff in repudiating the op-ed in their social media accounts and in today's edition of their newspapers.
The Buenos Aires Press Union (SiPreBa) also expressed its strongest condemnation against the editorial as does this publication, Info News:
"We likewise vindicate our colleagues at La Nación who publicly differed from their employer's editorial line. We the members of the press say ¡Nunca Más! - Never Again! - and will continue fighting for memory, truth, and justice."
At: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.infonews.com/nota/265746/trabajadores-de-la-nacion-repudiaron-la&prev=search
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The op-ed was published anonymously because in all likelihood the author was Carlos Pagni, a longtime La Nación contributor who has openly vindicated the Dirty War numerous times in the past, called for the military ouster of President Cristina Kirchner, was convicted of buying and selling information from hacked government computers, and was filmed receiving bribes from a Repsol operative (the "Spanish" oil company partly owned by narcos) in return for writing attack pieces against the Argentine state oil firm YPF.
Every one of these acts is illegal in Argentina, and every one of these has been proven. But Pagni and La Nación (known locally by its critics as La Traición - the 'Treason') have many friends in the courts, so La Nación goes on skating on a 50 million-dollar tax debt and Pagni the skinhead writes away - anonymously, of course.
First official results confirm Mauricio Macri wins historic presidential runoff in Argentina
Source: Buenos Aires Herald
Today’s historic runoff that had Daniel Scioli of the ruling Victory Front (FpV) competing against Mauricio Macri of the "Let’s Change" (Cambiemos) opposition coalition dominated by Macri's right-wing Republican Proposal (PRO) to become the successor of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has come to an end: according to initial exit polls, Mauricio Macri has won. Sources in the National Electoral Chamber informed that 66% of the electoral roll had already voted at 4.45 pm, with the election unfolding normally.
Results are expected to be ready starting at 7:30 in the evening, with trends likely to be consolidated by 10:30, according to statements by National Elections Director Alejandro Tullio.
Starting at 8 am, citizens began to cast their ballots in 13,000 different polling stations across the country. In the October 25 elections, Daniel Scioli and Carlos Zannini got almost a 3-point lead (37.1%) over Mauricio Macri and Gabriela Michetti (34.2%), a tighter-than-expected margin that led to today’s landmark runoff - the first in Argentine history.
Victory Front candidate Daniel Scioli, will await the final results at his bunker placed at NH Bolivar Hotel, near the Plaza de Mayo square, while Macri will show up at 8 pm in Costa Salguero.
After a year-long presidential campaign that reached fever pitch after last month’s general election, Argentines finally headed to the polls today. For the first time in history voters had only two ballots to choose from: Let’s Change (Cambiemos) candidate Mauricio Macri, or ruling Victory Front (FpV) contender Daniel Scioli; most past Argentine presidential elections have had five or six major candidates, and a number of minor ones.
Macri would take office on December 10. The center-left FpV retained an absolute majority in the Senate and a relative majority in the Lower House.
Read more: http://buenosairesherald.com/article/203520/mauricio-macri-wins-historic-presidential-runoff
Here's to Daniel Scioli, the centrist who despite his differences with Cristina Kirchner ran on the social-democratic Front for Victory ticket widely credited with revitalizing Argentina since they were first elected in 2003.
Like Al Gore, he had a good personal reputation and a fairly strong economy (2.8% growth, near-record consumer confidence) on his side. He was also supported by Pope Francis, who's asked him to "fight savage capitalism" in his campaign for the presidency.
But like Dubya, Macri had the local Catholic hierarchy (particularly the Opus Dei), the banks, big business, and, most importantly, big media on his side - not to mention a relentless and well-financed Limbaugh-style attack machine.
Much will depend on how many of his IMF policies he will be able to - or, frankly, want to - implement. These new policies would include, but are not limited to:
*quashing collective bargaining,
*curtailing benefits and public mortgage programs,
*cutting health and education,
*privatizing and outsourcing,
*and a sharp devaluation which would bring a windfall to the rich at everyone else's expense.
Already, consumer credit is being curtailed and wholesale prices reportedly soaring on the mere expectation of a devaluation.
Many are the same IMF recipes that caused the country's much-publicized collapse in 2001.
Argentina resembles the U.S. ethnically and culturally. They have a lot of the same political problems with the right the U.S. has: many white, middle-class voters will support the far right - even at their loss - because they see progressives as people who coddle "lazy blacks" (sound familiar?). That, of course, worked in Macri's favor.
But in Argentina especially, those who forget history...
Stiglitz: "Argentina is one of the few successful countries in reducing inequality and poverty"
The 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics laureate, Joseph Stiglitz, said in an interview with Página/12 that Argentina "is one of the few successful countries in reducing inequality and poverty," adding that our country "has a lot to teach the rest of the world in terms of resolution of macroeconomic crisis and sovereign debt restructuring. "
The former chief economist of the World Bank and Columbia University professor said that "the current scheme to resolve the crisis in sovereign debt does not work and allows the emergence of vulture funds", which he defined as "the scum of the international financial markets". He also considered the nine principles adopted by the UN General Assembly and promoted by the national government as "an important step" in a "long process" to solve this problem.
"Austerity during a recession generates social catastrophes. Fiscal austerity in times of recession, when the private sector is also reducing spending, only exacerbates the contractionary scenario," said Stiglitz. "Argentina has much to teach the rest of the world in terms of resolution of macroeconomic crisis and sovereign debt restructuring. The way in which Argentina solved its crisis of 2001 and 2002 led to high growth rates until 2011. Argentina has been one of the few successful countries in reducing inequality and poverty after the crisis. "
Finally, Stiglitz said that "the consequences of market fundamentalism have been devastating, as it has created more unstable economies and more unequal societies." He also explained that the markets "do not operate in a vacuum," adding that in response to the 2008 crisis, the economic discussion should focus on "how to rewrite the rules in ways that promote more inclusive growth."
At: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.politicargentina.com/notas/201511/9866-stiglitz-la-argentina-es-uno-de-los-pocos-paises-exitosos-a-la-hora-de-reducir-la-desigualdad-y-la-pobreza.html&prev=search
The full interview: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/2-286619-2015-11-21.html&prev=search
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But the group of people who benefited the most - the middle class (http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/194579/argentinas-middle-class-doubled-in-ten-years-us-report-shows) - are for the most part obsessed with "lazy indians on welfare" (sound familiar?).
Uber launch in Uruguay sparks opposition.
According to an announcement made on the company’s official site yesterday, Uber is launching its service in Uruguay’s capital city despite protests by local cab operators. The move would potentially impact the livelihoods of the approximately 3,000 registered taxi drivers in Montevideo, who pay expensive permits and other costs Uber drivers would mostly be exempt from.
Uber, for its part, invited residents of Montevideo, a city of 1.5 million, to download its ride-sharing app. It also published a list of prices that are below tariffs regularly charged by local taxi drivers.
Last week, local cabbies belonging to the CPATU union blocked Uruguay’s first training session for Uber drivers by cutting traffic in downtown Montevideo outside the hotel where the class was scheduled to be held.
Uber drivers have also faced angry protests in Mexico City, Paris and other cities.
At: http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/203349/uber-launch-in-uruguay-sparks-opposition
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Scenes from the taxi drivers' protest outside Uber's lair in Montevideo:
http://www.msn.com/es-us/video/noticias/uber-fuera-protestan-los-taxistas-en-uruguay/vp-BBmYCFy
Pope Francis tacitly endorses Scioli in Argentine election; "you already know what I think," he said
In the traditional Wednesday audience at the Vatican, Pope Francis urged Argentines "vote their conscience" in the presidential runoff next Sunday.
"You already know what I think," said the leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
Moments after the phrase began to circulate through the mainstream media, Daniel Scioli highlighted His Holiness' message, with a reading which was supported by Francis' repeated criticism of capitalism.
In an interview with Antonio Laje of A24, the Front for Victory nominee spoke of the plans for austerity and shock devaluation promoted by Mauricio Macri. "Pope Francis' words will be very important to Argentines as they vote their conscience," Scioli said. "They should give us all pause with respect to the actions of the kind of savage capitalism that wants to bring Argentina to its knees."
"His call to vote our conscience is a deep message: it asks that people support those who they believe will defend them," said Scioli. "You can be for or against me; but I don't say one thing today, and then another the next day as (Mauricio) Macri does."
Scioli was careful not to directly attribute to himself the Supreme Pontiff's support; but it is known that the two share a relationship of respect and affection that goes back a long way.
"We talk about universal themes. His main concern is the struggle against savage capitalism and its consequences, against social injustice, and to make the world more aware of all this," said Scioli two years ago. The criticism of savage capitalism referred to by Scioli was in fact reiterated by Pope Francis in his statement this morning.
At: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.infobae.com/2015/11/18/1770607-daniel-scioli-interpreto-el-mensaje-del-papa-francisco-el-ballotage&prev=search
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Nobody that has followed Pope Francis in the news for any length of time can doubt this.
Though he's somewhat to the right of the outgoing President Cristina Kirchner, Daniel Scioli is to Mauricio Macri what Bernie Sanders or Martin O'Malley is to Narco Rubio (whose owner, GOP megadonor and TARP baby Paul Singer, supports and, in fact, funds Macri's party).
Industrial Hemp Now Legal in North Carolina.
Thanks to a completely game-changing move, North Carolina has just passed a bill providing for the legalization, manufacture, and cultivation of hemp for industrial use.
The city of Spring Hope, North Carolina, has one of the only huge hemp decortication facilities in the entire United States. What is Decortication exactly? It is the process in which the bark or (long fiber) is stripped from the stalks, which in turn allows this crop to be better utilized for production.
This facility in North Carolina has been able to process hemp due to the obvious mounting legal issues with hemp. Though now being legal in North Carolina, this facility is able to pump out 40 million pounds of hemp each and every year, helping to then pave the way for the production and employment opportunities that this simple legalization of hemp will bring.
Governor Pat McCrory passed Senate Bill 213 on October 31, 2015, that would allow farmers in North Carolina to have a brand new option for growing various crops. At the stroke of midnight, the production of industrial hemp thus became legal.
This new bill passed the House and Senate both in late September by a landslide vote of 101-7 and 42-2, respectively; it has been awaiting the approval of Governor McCrory to sign it turning into a law.
The North Carolina General Assembly:
“…finds and declares that it is in the best interest of the citizens of North Carolina to promote and encourage the development of an industrial hemp industry in the State in order to expand employment, promote economic activity, and provide opportunities to small farmers for an environmentally sustainable and profitable use of crop lands that might otherwise be lost to agricultural production.
The purposes of this Article are to establish an agricultural pilot program for the cultivation of industrial hemp in the State, to provide for reporting on the program by growers and processors for agricultural or other research, and to pursue any federal permits or waivers necessary to allow industrial hemp to be grown in the State.”
Currently, the United States stands as the number one importer of all hemp products in the world, due to its being illegal to cultivate in most states. The United States thus spends millions a year to import hemp products from other countries who have not banned this highly valuable crop.
Known industrial uses of hemp include:
Paper
Plastics
Clothing
Jewelry
Rope
Building materials
Cooking (hemp oil)
Medicine
Food (seeds, Hempola for bread, etc.)
Skin care products
Animal and bird feed
Animal bedding
Water and soil purification
Weed control
Clean fuel
At: http://www.healthfreedoms.org/win-industrial-hemp-now-legal-in-north-carolina/
G20 endorses anti-vulture debt guidelines.
Source: Buenos Aires Herald
The Argentine Economy Ministry celebrated yesterday another international acknowledgement of the importance of the country’s long-standing legal saga with the so-called “vulture funds” as the G20 group of developed economies made references in its final document to the importance of promoting new rules for debt restructuring processes.
“We welcome the progress made to strengthen the orderliness and predictability of the sovereign debt restructuring process,” the final document agreed in Antalya, Turkey, says under a section dedicated to “building a stronger, more resilient global economy.” It also praises recent efforts by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to regulate banks in order to avoid a financial crisis such similar to that of 2008.
According to Argentina's Economy Minister Axel Kicillof, the issue will now be key to other countries because “almost US$900 billion worth of debt were issued under previous rules, including Argentine notes issued under the Alianza government” from 1999 to 2001. Kicillof said that half of the existing debt restructurings are under risk of being attacked as Argentina’s was by Paul Singer’s NML Capital and other hedge funds, and praised the outgoing administration of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner for being a pioneer in a matter of global consequences.
In another section of the document focused on “Issues for Further Action,” the G20 said that the new contractual clauses that protect sovereign debt restructurings from aggressive minority bondholders aiming to move matters to courts should be applied to all new bond issues. “Given the challenges litigation poses and in order to strengthen the orderliness and predictability of the sovereign debt restructuring process, we welcome the international work on strengthened collective action and pari passu clauses. We call for their inclusion in international sovereign bonds and encourage the international community and private sector to actively promote their use,” the G-20 said.
Read more: http://buenosairesherald.com/article/203105/g20-endorses-antivulture-debt-guidelines
Ah. To be a fly on the (Cayman Islands) wall and be able to hear Paul Singer chew his personal senator, Narco Rubio, out. I hope that runt remembered his water bottle!
Scioli, Macri face to face in historic debate ahead of runoff in Argentina.
Source: Buenos Aires Herald
Victory Front presidential candidate Daniel Scioli and Let's Change coalition hopeful Mauricio Macri faced each other off tonight in a historic debate just a week out from a winner-takes-all runoff scheduled for November 22. Tonight marked the first time that final round candidates ever participated in a formal debate in Argentine history.
At the beginning of the debate, Scioli affirmed that Mauricio Macri's ideas "are a danger to the whole of society." "I feel his ideas are dangerous. When he's said things he hasn't exposed here, like the lifting of dollar restrictions, that means austerity. Who will pay the cost of that?"
Macri said in response: "I believe you are the ones afraid, those who are ruling the country. I am asking you to stop being my spokesperson, to tell us your proposals instead." "We must expand the economy; I never said I will implement austerity," Macri said, despite statements to the contrary by his economic policy team.
The two presidential candidates discussed key topics that are part of the social agenda, divided in four different segments: one devoted to economy and social development; another to security and human rights; another focused on education; and the fourth based on strengthening democracy.
The debate began at 7:30 p.m. EST, and lasted 75 minutes. It was held at the main auditorium of the University of Buenos Aires Law School.
Read more: http://buenosairesherald.com/article/203036/scioli-macri-face-to-face-in-historic-debate-ahead-of-runoff
The headline moment was probably Scioli's:
"I come to echo the wishes workers have for their future, of the students whose access to free education Macri questions. I stand with the oil industry, when Macri's economists say Argentina does not need energy sovereignty and instead want to put a Shell executive at the head of (the state energy firm) YPF."
Argentine human rights groups endorse Daniel Scioli for President.
Human rights organizations in Argentina are preparing to issue an explicit endorsement of Front for Victory (FpV) presidential candidate Daniel Scioli ahead of the November 22 runoff, warning about the possible consequences of a victory by Mauricio Macri of the right-wing "Let’s Change" coalition.
The Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo, Mothers of Plaza de Mayo, Relatives of Forcibly Disappeared Persons for Political Reasons, and HIJOS (the organization that represents children of state terror victims) will issue a statement endorsing Scioli on Tuesday.
“While one candidate (Macri) vows to forget the past, open prison doors for dictatorship-era criminals, and push austerity plans, the other (Scioli) represents the continuity of a political project that has done much to help the poor,” Estela Barnes de Carlotto, the head of Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo, told the Herald.
Barnes de Carlotto’s support for Scioli was lukewarm earlier in the campaign. Scioli has worked to gain Barnes de Carlotto’s confidence, however, vowing to create a Human Rights Ministry if elected.
“We want to make it clear that although we aren’t afraid, we’re concerned about a Macri victory,” Taty Almeida, an iconic leader of Mothers of Plaza de Mayo told the Herald, echoing Barnes de Carlotto’s words. “The right-wing is gaining and we needed to express our concern; but also to defend a project that means more rights and more democracy,” Giselle Tepper, of HIJOS, also told the Herald.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Adolfo Pérez Esquivel was one of the first human rights leaders to endorse Scioli’s bid, though he will not be signing the statement that the other groups will be releasing days before the runoff. Pérez Esquivel also pointed out that Scioli represented a project that seeks to give the state a central role, whereas Macri favors "pro-business" positions. “I’ve always been critical of Kirchnerism; but the differences are clear,” he added.
Although Macri has long had a distant relationship with the human rights organizations since he became Buenos Aires City mayor in 2007, it worsened last year when the PRO leader said he wanted to end the “human rights scam.”
“He said we were a scam. He did not offend us, he offended the 30,000 forcibly disappeared people,” Taty Almeida said. “That is what he thinks about human rights.”
HIJOS has also taken Macri to court for failing to protect witnesses in human rights trials. “Macri does not represent Memory, Truth, and Justice,” she said. “He represents impunity.”
Other groups have also been critical of Scioli but don’t see it as an obstacle for endorsement. “We’ve criticized Scioli; but we’ve been much more critical of Macri,” Tepper acknowledged yesterday. “We, the human rights groups, will have to be the safeguards of human rights in any government.”
At: http://buenosairesherald.com/article/202989/rights-groups-for-scioli
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