HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » HerbChestnut » Journal
Page: « Prev 1 2 3 Next »

HerbChestnut

Profile Information

Member since: Fri Jul 24, 2015, 12:17 AM
Number of posts: 3,649

Journal Archives

Hillary Supporters' Spin Machine is in Overdrive

For whatever reason, DUers who support Hillary here have taken their game to a whole other level. How many anti-Bernie threads have there been in the last week or so? How many of those threads have tried to twist facts and warp perspectives? If Hillary has the nomination sewn up, as they believe, is there even a need to criticize Bernie and/or his supporters at every turn?

Here's the facts. Hillary is ahead nationally at this point, and the race appears to have stalled a bit. None of the national polls from the last month have varied much from one another. She is also ahead in Iowa, but it is debatable how large that lead is since some polls report the lead close to 20 points while others report it as single digits. Bernie is ahead in New Hampshire by a slim margin and has been for quite some time.

That's where we are, and that's likely where we will be until January. The next debate probably won't garner a significant audience (Thanks, DWS...) so it's unlikely to change anything.

It just seems remarkable to me that a group of supporters who are so confident in their own candidate's inevitable victory would find it necessary to post thread after thread bashing another candidate. That is, of course, unless they're not as confident as they let on.

A couple interesting takeaways from the latest Monmouth Iowa poll.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9a435a5e-2c3d-4b5d-b0ea-a45c5192af0a.pdf

Regardless of your feelings on the methodology, there were a few paragraphs that I haven't seen mentioned in any of the threads related to this poll.

Among past primary voters only, Clinton currently leads Sanders by a larger 27 point margin – 57% to 30%. Still, this is down from the 65% to 24% lead she held among this particular electorate in Monmouth’s last poll which was taken shortly after the first Democratic candidate debate, Clinton’s Benghazi Committee appearance, and Joe Biden’s decision not to run


So going by Monmouth's previous metrics, Bernie has gained 6 points on Hillary for a 14 point swing since late October. Then there's this:

Recognizing the historical volatility in Democratic caucus turnout, Monmouth tested a few vote simulations in addition to the reported projection above. Increasing the model to a turnout of approximately 150,000 voters – which would be the second highest turnout on record – would slightly narrow Clinton’s lead over Sanders to 19 points (54% to 35%). Increasing it still further to approximately 200,000 voters – near 2008’s all-time high – would shrink Clinton’s lead to 13 points (51% to 38%)


The more people show up to vote the better Bernie does. Iowa is going to be close, and with most people yet to make up their minds about who they support it appears that anything could happen.

Posted by HerbChestnut | Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:45 AM (5 replies)

Will Bernie's defense of the AA community bolster him in the polls?

Obviously, this is in response to the other OP. I say it depends on how people absorb information regarding this video. If they only hear about it from news outlets then it's possible this could hurt him. If they watch the video then I think it will actually help him.

Bernie stands up for AA communities, gets criticized for it (video)

This can't be posted enough. Bernie takes a day to work with the AA community, but because it's not about ISIS he gets criticized. He has a great response toward the end of the video to the reporter that asked about ISIS (10:55ish), but the whole video is more important than just that one moment.

The events today prove that Bernie is the best candidate for President

While he has addressed ISIS and the need for gun control many times, he is not letting those issues dominate his overall message. He's managing to balance those things with other issues like income inequality, racial justice, healthcare, education, etc. A President has the responsibility of addressing *all* issues brought to the table, not just what is in the media news cycle at any given moment. Bernie is proving, without a doubt, that he is more than capable of handling the vigor of executive office and will never let the media or anyone other than his constituents drive his agenda.

Bernie talks with Dreamers and others about Immigration

Streamed live earlier today. Enjoy.


Posted by HerbChestnut | Mon Dec 7, 2015, 05:37 PM (1 replies)

The Sanders Campaign releases MASSIVE Climate Change plan

This thing is too big to copy and paste and it's on multiple pages. Anyone interested should take the time to read it, and if all you want to do is criticize Bernie then at least educate yourself before doing so.

https://berniesanders.com/people-before-polluters/

HuffPo: The Sanders Corporate Tax Reform Plan

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dave-johnson/the-sanders-corporate-tax_b_8714350.html?utm_hp_ref=politics&ir=Politics

Sanders' "Corporate Tax Dodging Prevention Act"

Senator Bernie Sanders Corporate Tax Dodging Prevention Act is summarized in an April 14 Senate Budget Committee blog post (Sanders is the ranking member of that committee.)

1) Ending the rule allowing American corporations to defer paying federal income taxes on profits of their offshore subsidiaries.

This would immediately bring in up to $620 billion of federal tax revenue currently owed on "offshore" profits but deferred. (It would also make available in the US more than $2 trillion of corporate profits that have been kept offshore, which could be reinvested or distributed to shareholders.)

Additionally, this would increase federal tax revenue by as much as $90+ billion each year thereafter.

These amounts are based on a report from Citizens for Tax Justice (CTJ) and the U.S. PIRG Education Fund, titled "Offshore Shell Games."

A second look at the amounts owed by these companies , detailed in a letter to Congress titled, 24 International Tax Experts Address Current Tax Reform Efforts in Congress sets the amount this would bring in at " about $900 billion over 10 years."

2) Closing loopholes allowing American corporations to artificially inflate or accelerate their foreign tax credits.

A current loophole allows corporations to claim foreign tax credits for taxes paid on foreign income even if that income is not subject to current U.S. tax. This closes that loophole.

3) Preventing American corporations from claiming to be foreign by using a tax-haven post office box as their address.

This would stop American corporations from avoiding U.S. taxes by claiming to be a foreign company because they have a post office box in a tax haven country. Sanders' bill says a corporation could not claim to be from another country if their management and control operations are primarily located in the U.S. (See last month's post, "Pfizer Buying Allergan So It Can Pretend To Be Irish In Tax Scam." The resulting company would still be based in NY/NJ.)

4) Preventing American corporations from avoiding U.S. taxes by "inverting."

In an inversion, an American corporation acquires or merges with a (usually much smaller) foreign company and then claims that the newly merged company is a foreign one for tax purposes -- even though the majority of the ownership is unchanged and little or no personnel or operations have actually moved offshore.

Under Sanders' bill the U.S. would continue to tax such a company as an American corporation so long as it is still majority owned by the owners of the American party to the merger or acquisition.

5) Prevent foreign-owned corporations from stripping earnings out of the U.S. by manipulating debt expenses.

This stops multinational corporations from loading up their U.S.-based corporation with debt to companies they own outside of the US as a way to shift profits out of the U.S. company. They make interest payments to the foreign companies, deduct it, and this reduces or wipes out their U.S. income for tax purposes.

6) Preventing large oil companies from disguising royalty payments to foreign governments as foreign taxes.

U.S. oil and gas companies have been disguising royalty payments to foreign governments as foreign taxes in order to claim foreign tax credits. Sanders' bill would stop this.


I know this is a bit much to copy and paste from the article, but this part lists off the major highlights from the plan so I wanted to include all of it. There's more detailed links in the actual article and a brief comparison with Clinton's infrastructure proposal.
Posted by HerbChestnut | Sat Dec 5, 2015, 08:58 PM (2 replies)

Ipsos/Reuters polling with Independents included shows Bernie within 8 points of the lead

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1|3/dates/20150808-20160125/type/smallest

Hillary 43.6
Bernie 35.5
Martin 4.5
Undecided 16.4

Obviously this poll tends to swing, but this is the closest it's been for some time.
Posted by HerbChestnut | Fri Dec 4, 2015, 12:32 PM (7 replies)

New Ipsos/Reuters National Poll: Hillary 51, Bernie 36, Martin 4

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15124

All results are close to the margin of error from other recent polls, but it is noteworthy that 36% is the highest Bernie has achieved nationally so far.

EDIT: I should add that Bernie's also winning with Independents 30-28-5 vs. 38% undecided.
Posted by HerbChestnut | Fri Dec 4, 2015, 01:02 AM (4 replies)
Go to Page: « Prev 1 2 3 Next »