November 27, 2015

Sanders and Clinton favorable/unfavorable polling trendlines

November 27, 2015

novenator at 'Kos- Sanders: the most electable candidate that will build a STRONGER Democratic Party

Great analysis; here's an excerpt:

A Bernie Sanders nomination would be the best thing that could happen to the Democratic Party.
... Bernie Sanders has been elected to office 14 times. Bernie won his last Senate campaign with 70% of the vote, including 25% of the Republicans. He also won by 8% more than what opinion polls predicted because of the non-traditional voters that come out to support him. 78% of Bernie’s supporters are enthusiastic.

Lets start with how popular Bernie is with independent voters. Bernie Sanders is polling strongest with independents. The IVN poll of independents shows Bernie is at 45% to Trump 26%, Ben Carson 19%, Rand Paul 12%, and Clinton 9%. In a head to head matchup, Bernie cleans up with independents over Clinton 59-21%. Being an independent himself for so long certainly helps (Bernie is the longest serving independent in the history of Congress), but the greater appeal is with how direct Bernie is and how he has consistently fought for the same things for decades. People of all political persuasions appreciate those things, even if they disagree with some of his issue stances.

November 26, 2015

Clinton Iowa trouble. The Hill, "Grassley worries about legal coordination on Clinton email server"

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley has raised a worrisome documented email problem reigniting a smoldering problem for the Clinton campaign:

According to an invoice from September, the Colorado-based firm that handled Clinton’s private email server billed her for “legal defense” and “PR” related to the device. ... “The invoice raises questions as to whether Secretary Clinton has similar arrangements with other people or entities associated with her email server,” Grassley (R-Iowa), who leads the Senate Judiciary Committee, wrote to lawyers for Clinton and her former top State Department aides on Wednesday.

“In light of this, it is important for the committee to know whether Secretary Clinton and her attorneys are providing financial support, legal support, or other coordination to those associates of hers who are involved in congressional committee and federal law enforcement inquiries relating to her email server. ... Grassley noted that Bryan Pagliano, the former State Department employee who helped set up and maintain Clinton’s server, has discussed legal immunity in exchange for testimony about Clinton and her former advisers.

As such, his participation in possible joint legal arrangements “would raise substantial concerns,” Grassley warned.

Say what you will about Grassley, he gets lots of press coverage in Iowa.

November 25, 2015

Pollster Peter Hart: "Between Hillary Clinton and 2016 Voters, a Glass Curtain"

link; excerpt:

In a micro way, 2016 feels like it should be a Democratic year: The GOP is without a natural nominee, and it remains a party with a tremendous gulf between the establishment and its electorate on social issues. But–and there is always a but–the thoughts of these {focus-group} voters in Columbus, Ohio, underscores the challenge ahead for the Democrats in 2016.
...
Mrs. Clinton receives admiration and respect for her professional skills and background,... however, there is still a gulf for her to cross in order to connect with these Ohio voters and those nationwide. One does not sense that they are rooting for her but, rather, that they are hoping she stumbles so they can find a way to relate to her.

Hillary Clinton has often referred to the “glass ceiling” she is trying to break through. These voters also are trying to break through something, but their barrier is a glass curtain. Many feel they can see and hear her, but they do not think they can relate to or touch her. In their words, she is remote and distant. Whether it is her voice, manner, attitude, or language, there is a gulf. Since 1980, from Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama, voters have chosen the presidential candidate they perceived as more “likable and warm.” One year before the 2016 election, the challenge facing Hillary Clinton is to find a way to relate to voters and, more important, to provide voters a way to relate to her.

November 25, 2015

Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Wins Iowans’ Heads, but Not Hearts

Source: NYT

...in a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday... More voters in the new survey said that Mr. Sanders could better handle the economy, voters’ No. 1 issue, and more think he shares their values and cares about people like them.
...
By 6-1, Democrats said Iowa should welcome Syrian refugees. Republicans opposed welcoming Syrian refugees by 5-1.

Nearly 60 percent of Democrats oppose sending ground troops to fight the Islamic State. Only 22 percent of Republicans are opposed.

Fifteen percent of Democrats named climate change was their No. 1 issue. The percentage of Republicans who said climate change was the top concern: zero.


Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/25/poll-shows-hillary-clinton-wins-iowans-heads-but-not-hearts/

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Pollster's chart of this month's polling in Iowa:



If you prefer numbers to charts:

November polling average in Iowa polls included as reliable in the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator:

50.5% Clinton
43% Sanders

October polling average in Iowa polls included as reliable in the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator:

54.1% Clinton
32.3% Sanders

So far, November in Iowa polling has been 10.7% better for Sanders and 3.6% worse for Clinton for a 14.5% closer race. In Iowa, Sanders has already overcome the bump Clinton received from Biden's announcement and the Benghazi hearings.

November 25, 2015

Common Dreams on Clinton's "Latest Snub of Progressive Base"

link; excerpt:

In what one analyst sees as "a really bad mistake," Hillary Clinton declined to participate in a presidential forum hosted by the 8 million-strong organization MoveOn.org.

Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley did take part in the virtual event in which they answered questions on issues ranging from campaign finance reform to climate change to the Syrian refugee crisis. ... "It’s a shame that Secretary Clinton declined to participate in the MoveOn member forum," Anna Galland, the executive director of MoveOn.org Civic Action, said in a statement to The Hill. "She missed an opportunity to speak directly to and energize the progressive base she’ll need in her corner not just to win the nomination but also the general election, if she is the party's nominee."

"Our forum gave grassroots progressives the chance to pose substantive questions directly to presidential candidates—exactly what democracy is about— and we’re grateful to Sen. Sanders and Gov. O’Malley for participating," Galland's statement continued.

Ilya Sheyman, executive director of MoveOn.org Political Action, said last month that the forum would "help Democratic candidates engage with millions of progressive Americans who constitute an influential part of the party’s base and who will play a significant role in the coming primaries and caucuses." That's a point noted by Democratic strategist Mike Lux, who told MSNBC that Clinton's missing the event was "a really bad mistake."

"She’s blowing that part of the [Democratic] base off, and with 8 million members, that’s a lot of people," he said.... As Common Dreams reported last week: From her call for a major air and ground war against ISIS to her attack on single-payer, observers note that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is rapidly shedding her "progressive" façade as she grows increasingly confident ...

November 25, 2015

Sanders campaign says it has more women donors than Clinton

Source: Washington Post

As of the last reporting period at the end of September, some 301,154 women gave money to Sanders in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to his campaign. That would top the approximately 240,000 women who have given money to Clinton since she launched her campaign....

Symone Sanders, a spokeswoman for the Sanders campaign, said the number shows "the grassroots enthusiasm for Senator Sanders is unmatched by any other candidate. The fact that so many women have decided to donate to the senator's campaign says that his policies and record are indeed resonating with women across the country."...

Sanders claims more than 689,000 individual donors to nearly 400,000 for Clinton. That means that the former secretary of state still can brag that a higher percentage of her contributors are women -- 60 percent versus 44 percent for Sanders.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/25/sanders-campaign-says-it-has-more-women-donors-than-clinton/

November 25, 2015

Kathleen Turner, "Republicans' Playbook on Women Gets Even Scarier"

link; excerpt:

Last week, Ted Cruz promoted the endorsement of Troy Newman, an anti-choice leader who has gone so far as to say that a perfectly biblical society would execute its abortion providers.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Ted Cruz is so thrilled that someone who wants abortion providers to be killed is supporting him that he actually sent out a press release to celebrate the endorsement. Is that what this Republican primary has come to? Presidential candidates applauding -- not denouncing -- these radically extreme positions?

Regardless of one's view on abortion rights, I would hope we can all agree that abortion providers do not deserve to be put to death for their entirely legal work. For a presidential candidate to not immediately distance himself from an endorsement from someone like Newman -- and instead to actively promote it -- is horrifying.

November 25, 2015

Avg. Iowa polls in Nov: 50.5% Clinton, 43% Sanders; Iowa polls in Oct: 54.1% Clinton, 32.3% Sanders

So considering the average of the Iowa polls where the data was gathered in November compared with the average of the previous month's polling, Clinton is down 3.6% (on average) and Sanders is up 10.7% (on average) resulting in a 14.5% narrowing of the gap from October to November.

Can someone remind me how this trend spells doom for Sanders and inevitability for Clinton?

PS - O'Malley is also improving in Iowa in November: 4.5% average versus a 3.9% in October.

November 24, 2015

Salon: "Ted Cruz’s laughable plan to rebrand himself as a moderate"

link; excerpt:

a new AP report suggests that Cruz is attempting to rebrand himself in the wake of the latest attacks. His hope is to appeal to the supporters of people like Trump and Carson by emphasizing his experience and, I’m not joking, his moderation....You almost have to applaud Cruz’s chutzpah here. This guy has made a career of extremism. His strategy in the Senate, from the very beginning, has been to obstruct and to use his platform to appeal to the wingnut base of the Republican Party – showing little to no interest in advancing a credible legislative agenda. And he’s mouthed as many inflammatory idiocies as anyone currently running for president.... Here are just a few examples:

1.“Look, we saw in Britain, Neville Chamberlain, who told the British people, ‘Accept the Nazis. Yes, they’ll dominate the continent of Europe, but that’s not our problem. Let’s appease them. Why? Because it can’t be done. We can’t possibly stand against them.’”
2. “I think President Obama is the most radical president this nation’s ever seen … And in particular, I think he is a true believer in government control of the economy and of our everyday lives. In my judgment, we are facing what I consider to be the epic battle of our generation, quite literally the battle over whether we remain a free market nation.”
3. “You know, back in the ’70s — I remember the ’70s, we were told there was global cooling. And everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem. … The problem with climate change is there’s never been a day in the history of the world in which the climate is not changing.”
4. “The Obama economy is a disaster, Obamacare is a train wreck, and the Obama-Clinton foreign policy of leading from behind — the whole world is on fire.”
5. “Net neutrality is Obamacare for the internet.”
6. “It’s not our job to be social workers in Iraq and put them all on expanded Medicaid.”
7. “I thought it was the job of a military chaplain to be insensitive to atheists.”
8. “You look at our constitution, you look at our Bill of Rights, this is an administration [Obama] that seems bound and determined to violate every single one of our Bill of Rights…I don’t know that they’ve yet violated the Third Amendment, but I expect them to start quartering soldiers in people’s homes soon.”
9. “In my life, I have never once seen an Hispanic panhandler. In our community, it would be viewed as shameful to be out on the street begging.”