March 8, 2016

The Nation: "Bernie Sanders Keeps Winning—and Pundits Don’t Like It"

link to this AWESOME little report; excerpt:

While the political and media elites keep angling for an opening to declare that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is finished—so they can concentrate on nothing other than their obsession with Donald Trump’s Republican circus—Bernie Sanders keeps complicating things.

By winning.

The senator from Vermont, who began his race against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton with single-digit poll numbers, and a general assumption that a democratic socialist would never be a competitive candidate, has won eight state primaries and caucuses so far. ... In Maine, where Democrats lined up for hours to vote in packed caucuses, Sanders won 64 percent of the vote.

“{We} have now won by wide margins in states from New England to the Rocky Mountains and from the Midwest to the Great Plains,” Sanders declared on Sunday night.... Sanders is making this a real race. He is not merely attracting large crowds to rallies, getting unprecedented numbers of small donors to write checks, and battering billionaires. He is winning by wide margins in unexpected states such as Kansas (where the senator took 67 percent of the vote on Saturday) and Nebraska (where he beat Clinton by almost 10 points on the same day).... But Sunday belonged to Sanders. In Maine, where Democrats lined up for hours to vote in packed caucuses, it was Sanders who won 64 percent, to 36 for Clinton. There are plenty of primaries and caucuses to come. Clinton will score wins, as will Sanders. It’s a real race, and it won’t be finished for a good long while.

“The pundits might not like it,” Sanders explained on Sunday night, “but the people are making history.”

March 7, 2016

Sanders leads Idaho 47% to 45% "a dramatic reversal from Clinton's previous 10-point lead"

BOISE | ... The Democratic caucus is March 22, and the polling shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 47 percent support, compared to 45 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

On the GOP side, the results are close to the last poll which was conducted in January and had 31 percent for Trump, 19 for Cruz, 13 for Carson and 11 for Rubio. On the Democratic side, though, the polling shows a dramatic reversal from Clinton's previous 10-point lead.

March 7, 2016

Last Poll Before Idaho Primary Has Trump Up By 11

Source: Magic Valley Times News

BOISE | ... The Democratic caucus is March 22, and the polling shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 47 percent support, compared to 45 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

On the GOP side, the results are close to the last poll which was conducted in January and had 31 percent for Trump, 19 for Cruz, 13 for Carson and 11 for Rubio. On the Democratic side, though, the polling shows a dramatic reversal from Clinton's previous 10-point lead.
...
Forty-four percent of all Idahoans and 46 percent of Republicans expect Trump to get the GOP nod, while 47 percent of all Idahoans and 61 percent of Democrats believe Clinton will be the party's candidate. Twenty-three percent of those polled expect Trump to be the next president, 20 percent Clinton, 10 percent Sanders, 8 percent Cruz and 5 percent Rubio, while 27 percent don't have a guess yet.

Read more: http://magicvalley.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/last-poll-before-idaho-primary-has-trump-up-by/article_93f6831c-a0cf-5594-a922-be1c264e1a87.html

March 7, 2016

MSU poll shows Clinton has slim lead over Sanders

Source: WLNS (Michigan CBS affiliate)

EAST LANSING, Mich (WLNS) – A new poll out of Michigan State University shows it may be a very close Primary race in Michigan between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

The winter State of the State survey shows Clinton has a five point lead over Sanders.

However it’s not a big enough lead to discount a possible Sanders victory tomorrow with results well within the survey’s margin of error.

Read more: http://wlns.com/2016/03/07/msu-poll-shows-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-sanders/

March 7, 2016

"In Nearly Every Blue, Purple, and Light-Red State, Bernie Sanders Polls Better Against Trump..."

link to In Nearly Every Blue, Purple, and Light-Red State, Bernie Sanders Polls Better Against Trump Than Hillary Clinton; excerpt:

While the national media's continued use of "super-delegates" in its delegate tallies, against the advice and demand of the Democratic National Committee, may give the impression that Hillary Clinton has built an insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders, two recent developments have put a significant dent in that storyline: first, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has joined the Democratic National Committee's call to stop tallying super-delegates; second, Sanders supporters have begun disseminating polling data showing that Sanders runs much better against likely Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, than does Clinton.

According to the most recent state-by-state polling collected by RealClearPolitics, a top polling aggregator, these are the blue, purple, and light-red states in which Bernie Sanders runs better against Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton:

Georgia
Iowa
Minnesota
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Ohio
Virginia
Wisconsin

March 7, 2016

Hillary has only regional appeal and her model is dependent on low turnout. She can't fix that.

Hillary is winning in the Dixiecrat states. These 13 states compose one of the most anti-Progressive regions in the United States (the Deep South is least supportive of reproductive health liberties, collective bargaining rights, GLBT equality, etc.). Hillary has so far put together a clean sweep of these states because the Clintons rose to power in the Deep South, which is ideologically inclined against the Progressive message of Sanders.

Assume Clinton is insurmountably preferred over Sanders in the 13 states of the Deep South.

Even if Hillary is liked in the Deep South, why is Clinton performing so poorly outside of the Deep South?

This is a problem we need to address before we choose a nominee.

Look at the data behind Sanders' 8 big wins versus Clinton's 3 narrow wins outside the Deep South:

Iowa - Clinton won by 0.3% in a dirty, close race (closest in Iowa's history)

New Hampshire - Sanders won by a wide 22.4% margin

Nevada - Clinton won by 5.3% in a narrower win than her win over Obama in 2008

Colorado - Sanders won by a wide 18.5% margin

Massachusetts - Clinton won dirty by a very narrow 1.4% margin

Minnesota - Sanders won by a wide 23.2% margin

Oklahoma - Sanders won by a wide 10.4% margin

Vermont - Sanders won by a wide 72.5% margin

Kansas - Sanders won by a wide 35.4% margin

Nebraska - Sanders won by a wide 14.2% margin

Maine - Sanders won by a wide 28.8% margin

In a year when the Republican race is setting turnout records, all of Hillary's wins have come in states where Democratic turnout is way down.

In contrast, Sanders has won setting turnout records in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska (which had a huge turnout despite switching from a primary in 2008 to a caucus in 2016), and Maine.

How many states does Hillary have to lose outside of the Deep South and how many races she can win with anemic turnout before we can have an adult discussion about the implications of these results for her electability prospects?

March 6, 2016

Did 538 predict Hillary would lose Colorado or Oklahoma or Minnesota or Nebraska or Kansas or Maine?

Just asking about these 538 forecast models I keep hearing so much about.

Did 538 predict Trump would lose Alaska or Iowa or Kansas or Maine or Oklahoma?

How many forecasts is 538 allowed to get wrong in a 100-day period before people stop referring to 538 as "unerringly accurate"?

Does 538 deserve credit when they predict a race correctly but blow the margin of victory by a mile?

How many times can 538 make predictions that favor Clinton and yet remain silent in races that favor Sanders before it looks like a pattern?

I like 538 more than almost anyone (I read it Monday through Friday and on weekend days with debates or elections), but this idea that 538's "stunningly inaccurate 2016 forecasts" can take the place of real votes has got to stop.

March 6, 2016

Looking at the primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Trump and Cruz are finished! Links:

Whenever someone cites 538 as a reason to think the Sanders campaign is doomed, that's a good time to review the collected genius and wisdom of 538:

Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win

Ted Cruz Has A Huge Math Problem

The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan

Ted Cruz’s General Election Strategy Is Wishful Thinking

Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom

Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates

Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News

Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner!

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate

March 4, 2016

There are 4 contests this weekend. Sanders is favored in 3 out of 4: Go Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine!

There is little recent polling in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine, but the betting markets are active in these three upcoming contests:

In Kansas, Sanders is a 69% to 31% favorite.

In Nebraska, Sanders is a 79% to 21% favorite.

In Maine, Sanders is a 81% to 19% favorite.

Like the other Dixie states that share a border with the Clinton home field of Arkansas, expect Hillary to do well in Louisiana this weekend.

I suspect that Hillary will continue her sweep of the Deep South, but I expect that Sanders will extend his current 5-to-3 lead outside of Dixie to an ASTOUNDING 8-to-3 lead in states outside of the Deep-Red-Republican South!!!:

BIG WIN - New Hampshire!
BIG WIN - Colorado!
BIG WIN - Minnesota!
BIG WIN - Oklahoma!
BIG WIN - Vermont!
WIN PROJECTED - Kansas!
WIN PROJECTED - Nebraska!
WIN PROJECTED - Maine!

To those working on the campaign in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine - Stay strong! Stay focused! Stay hopeful!

March 4, 2016

People: "Moms Vote Yes for this Woman Who Breastfed Her Baby at a Bernie Sanders Rally"

In a photo that's gone viral, Harper's mom Elle decided to breastfeed her in the middle of a Bernie Sanders rally in Cleveland, Ohio Thursday. ... "After the rally, Bernie and Jane O'Meara Sanders both thanked me for doing what mothers do and taking care of my daughter when she needed her mom, even if that meant nursing in public!" Elle wrote in a Facebook post, which has over 4,000 likes and almost 1,400 shares.