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Attorney in Texas

Attorney in Texas's Journal
Attorney in Texas's Journal
September 19, 2015

This post-debate poll will horrify the GOP establishment

Source: Vox.com

36 percent of poll respondents support Donald Trump; 12 percent support Ben Carson; and 10 percent support Carly Fiorina. All together, that's 58 percent of Republican debate-watchers who support one of the three candidates in the race with no experience in elected office whatsoever. To put it another way, none of the twelve candidates in the field with political experience managed to crack 10 percent of the vote.
Jeb Bush's numbers are dismal — and Scott Walker's are even worse

6 percent of poll respondents said they would vote for Jeb Bush. That ties him with Chris Christie for sixth place (behind Trump, Carson and Fiorina, as well as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). Just like Trump is somehow still gaining support, Bush is somehow still losing it.

It is definitely bad news for the Republican establishment that their preferred candidate is getting 6 percent in the polls. But the man who was supposed to be his "conservative challenger" is doing even worse. Scott Walker, who when the race started was the closest thing to the candidate of the conservative movement, is polling at 1 percent. He is tied with former New York Governor George Pataki.

Read more: http://www.vox.com/2015/9/19/9353865/republican-poll-debate-fiorina

Not enough polling to draw any definitive conclusions about how the Republican race has been shaped by the debate and other recent developments, but it is clear that things are not moving in the direction that the Republican establishment had in mind.
September 19, 2015

GOP 2016 hopefuls split over Trump's Muslim controversy

Source: CNN

Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz refused to criticize Trump or say whether they believe Obama is a Christian, instead slamming reporters for asking about the incident. Jindal said it wasn't a candidate's "role" to correct a questioner -- but also said he would have pointed out the U.S.'s anti-discrimination values.

And Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham and Jeb Bush emphatically said they believe Obama was born in the U.S. and criticized Trump for not standing up to the questioner.
"Look, ladies and gentlemen I'm not playing this ... game that you want to play," a visibly aggravated Santorum said at Heritage Action's presidential forum in Greenville, South Carolina. "The President can defend himself. He doesn't need Rick Santorum to defend him. He's got you doing that very, very well. So cut it out."
"You know, my focus is on my campaign," Cruz said. "I understand the press wants to get Republicans throwing rocks at each other. How about we talk about the challenges facing this country?"

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/18/politics/donald-trump-muslim-barack-obama-2016-candidates-chris-christie/index.html

September 18, 2015

Sources: Scott Walker’s Donors Are Circulating Rumor About Campaign Manager

Source: Buzz Feed.com (via Huffington Post)

A number of Walker’s donors and supporters have been circulating a rumor about Wiley in recent days, apparently aimed at discrediting him and bringing about a shakeup in the organization, according to two Republican sources. The sources, neither of whom is affiliated with a presidential campaign, said they heard the rumor from people in Walker’s camp. They also said an anonymous letter about Wiley is circulating in political and donor circles, though it is unclear where it originated.
The influential conservative talk radio host and blogger Erick Erickson appeared to allude to the whisper campaign Thursday on Twitter: “Lots of different people all sending me the same rumor about a particular campaign manager caught indecently at the Ohio debate.”

As the Washington Post reported Thursday, Walker’s financial backers are pressuring him to replace Wiley, who they believe has mismanaged the campaign’s funds and failed to adequately respond to the candidate’s sharp drop in national polls over the summer.
“There is a substantial amount of chatter that he needs to go,” a Walker fundraiser told the Post. “People are worried.” Walker told the newspaper he had just finished a conference call with 80 top donors and none of them brought it up.

Read more: http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/sources-scott-walkers-donors-are-circulating-rumor-about-cam#.rsppOv5Ao

I don't much care what the rumor pertains to or whether it is true -- when the national news about your campaign is about some insiders trashing other insiders, the campaign is doomed.

More bad news for the already distressed Walker campaign.
September 18, 2015

Scott Walker is barely seen, heard in second Republican debate

Source: madison.com

... Walker ... spoke the least of the 11 candidates who shared the stage.

Throughout the three-hour debate, Walker spoke for eight minutes and 29 seconds, falling into the bottom three with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. To compare, Walker spoke for five minutes and 51 seconds in the two-hour Fox News debate, placing him in the bottom two for speaking time.
While Walker has pledged to terminate the Iran deal "on day one" in the Oval Office, Bush argued, "it's not a strategy to tear up an agreement."
As the debate wore on, Walker, like most candidates onstage, fell victim to the heat. His brow seemed to glisten more with each pan of the camera, and the camera's gaze seemed to elude him more and more throughout the night ... In the days leading up to the debate, Walker's national poll numbers had plummeted to 3 percent, from double digits last month.

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/scott-walker-is-barely-seen-heard-in-second-republican-debate/article_0028241a-ac6e-59d7-9acd-bcf08331a3f6.html

There has been a ton of post-debate coverage of Walker, and it is NOT good for the Walker campaign:

Amid dropping poll numbers, Scott Walker will retreat to focus on Iowa: "GOP presidential candidate Scott Walker -- who has tumbled from top-tier status amid tepid debate performances and other missteps -- will pull back from other early-voting states" as he "also faces growing pressure from some financial backers to make staffing changes in an attempt to turn around his campaign."

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker failed to deliver in GOP debate, analysts say:

The reviews of the second Republican presidential debate are in, and they’re not good for Gov. Scott Walker.
A Washington Post columnist dubbed him one of the biggest losers among the 11-candidate field in the prime-time Wednesday faceoff.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia said Walker “made the least of his time.”
Politico suggested his candidacy is now “on life support.”

Scott Walker tries to reassure nervous donors: "Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and his team are working hard to calm their major donors — some of whom are worried that Walker is on a downward slide and did little to help his campaign in Wednesday night's debate."

Things are looking grim for the Walker campaign (and I couldn't be happier about that).
September 17, 2015

538: "We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate"

Micah Cohen:
Carly Fiorina. She’s sitting with an 8 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee — would you buy or sell her stock?

Harry Enten:
I’d sell. Let me be the old curmudgeon in this group; I continue to believe that a traditional candidate will emerge as the ultimate nominee. I believe her record at HP will eventually bring her down, among other things. That said, I wouldn’t put her chance near 0. Perhaps closer to 3-5 percent. Better than Trump.... Let me point out a few things: 1. I think we need to realize that this is still September. Other more establishment candidates did very well last night. 2. Fiorina self-funded somewhat in 2010. Not exactly someone who relied on the traditional infrastructure.

Nate Silver:
Yay, an actual disagreement! I’d at least hold Fiorina’s stock at 8 percent, and maybe buy ... hold is totally an option ... the thing about Fiorina is that it seems a little off to classify her as an insurgent/outsider. If you’re the CEO of a major company like HP, you’re a part of the establishment. Unless you’re a real weirdo. And if you run for Senate as a Republican in 2010, and run as a surrogate for a bunch of Republican candidates, you’re part of the ​*political*​ establishment too.

Simone Landon:
Who’s Walker? Was he even there last night?

Buy. At 4 percent? I’d buy. ... His debate performance was a ball of meh, but he’s the governor of a fairly large bluish-tint state. He won election three times in four years. He’s conservative.

Yeah, it’s a buy at 4 percent....his favorability ratings are pretty good and he has “enough” money to survive for a while.... I’m not saying that his stock hasn’t diminished. But I think there’s been an overreaction. A 25-to-1 shot? Sure. I’ll take a few of those tickets.

Jeb Bush at 39 percent: buy/sell/hold?

Selling ... 39 percent is way too high.... {Fair price is} somewhere between 20-30 percent. His super PAC still has a ton of money. He leads the endorsement race (if barely). He’s ahead of most of the other traditional candidates in the polls (for whatever that is worth). And I don’t think he is too moderate for the party at this point.

Yeah, sell. I don’t really get why he’s at 39 percent. ... {Fair price is} 25 percent? 30 percent?

THE DONALD: 13 percent. Buy/sell/hold?


we all sell on The Donald
September 17, 2015

Republican debate: Fact-checking the candidates

Source: CNN

Fact check: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says he was named U.S. attorney by President George W. Bush on September 10, 2001.
Fact check: Donald Trump says Wisconsin is losing $2.2 billion.
Fact check: Bush says U.S. has failed to bolster ties to any nation under Obama.
Fact check: Trump says he never lobbied Bush for casinos in Florida.
Fact check: Bobby Jindal says letting more Syrian refugees into the U.S. would involve a circumvention of the normal immigrant vetting process.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/16/politics/republican-debate-fact-check/index.html

September 17, 2015

What Went Down In The Second GOP Debate

Source: FiveThirthEight

Fiorina A A+ A-
Rubio B A C
Bush B A- C
Christie B- B+ D
Carson B- B+ D
Cruz C+ B D
Trump C+ B+ D
Kasich C+ B+ D
Paul C+ B C-
Walker C+ B- D
Huckabee C B D

Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-second-republican-presidential-debate/

More from earlier reporting:

September 16, 2015

Can we stop the Biden-Warren nonsense and focus on our great REAL candidates? Warren said she isn't

running. Biden said he and his family may not have the emotional strength to run.

Leaving aside the scenario-crushing fact that neither candidate is running, Warren is not a fan of Biden:

“The group that will be most affected by the changes in the bankruptcy legislation Senator Biden so forcefully supports will be women, particularly women heads of household who are supporting children,” Warren wrote in the Harvard Women’s Law Journal.

“Not a single women’s group that has spoken publicly about the bankruptcy bill agrees with him, but his public position as a champion of women seems untarnished,” Warren added, according to the International Business Times.
Portraying Biden as a "zealous advocate on behalf of one of his biggest contributors," Warren in the 2002 article noted the connection between the credit card industry and Biden's home state of Delaware.

Responding to the renewed attention the article was receiving, a Biden aide told the IBT that “the vice president has been a champion for middle-class families and has fought against powerful interests.”... A year later, in 2003, Warren wrote in her book The Cement Life Raft that “[s]enators like Joe Biden should not be allowed to sell out women in the morning and be heralded as their friend in the evening.”

In 2005, Warren testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee and faced down a contentious line of questioning by Biden, who portrayed Warren's portrayal of the bankruptcy legislation as "mildly demagogic."

I'm a huge Warren supporter, and she has far too much integrity to join a Biden campaign (which would crush the campaign of Sanders who is much ideologically closer to Warren and damage Clinton's campaign, who is also closer to Warren than Warren is to Biden). Biden has a great personal story and he has been a good and loyal VP, but he holds no appeal ideologically to the progressive wing of the party, and he is too late to the game to take the centrist/establishment support that Clinton has already locked up.

So, this is not going to happen.

Yet even if a Biden-Warren ticket did happen, it would fizzle.

In order to have any remote chance of capturing Sanders support, the ticket would have to be Warren-Biden, not Biden-Warren. Everyone likes Biden personally; it's his career-long centrist, pro-bankster, pro-predatory-credit-cartel, hawkish, pro-harsh-penalties-for-drug-possession policies that progressives do not like.

Either Biden would have to change from a caterpillar to butterfly overnight, or Warren would have to sell out. SPOILER ALERT: neither of those two things is going to happen.

If anyone thinks that Clinton is being harshly attacked for a lack of authenticity, these attacks would pale in comparison to the charges of flip-floppery and opportunism if either Biden or Warren betrayed their entire careers to sign onto the same platform because Biden has historically opposed the best of what Warren represents and Warren stands opposed to much of the career's work from the "Senator from MBNA."

I'm a fan of Biden as a person, but he's to the right of Clinton, and Clinton is already too much of a centrist for my taste.

If I were picking a candidate based on who would be best to grab a beer with, Biden would make the short list, but I pick candidates based on their ideology, and a history of progressive advocacy, and their platform, and Biden does not make the short list (or even the medium length list) by this criteria. I suspect that Warren feels the same way.
September 16, 2015

Nate Silver at 538: "Hillary Clinton Is Stuck In A Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop"

Nate Silver, who is very robust about Clinton's prospects, has some serious analysis for her campaign to consider:

Feedback loops can produce self-reinforcing (but usually temporary) booms and busts of support. For instance, a candidate who has some initial spark of success, such as by doing well in a debate, can receive more favorable media coverage. That, in turn, can beget more success as voters jump on the bandwagon and his poll numbers go up further.

Candidates can just as easily get caught — or entrap themselves — in self-reinforcing cycles of negative media attention and declining poll numbers. Hillary Clinton looks like she’s stuck in one of these ruts right now.

The Washington Post’s David Weigel recently observed that voters were hearing about only three types of Clinton stories, all of which have negative implications for her. First are stories about the scandal surrounding the private email server she used as secretary of state. Next are stories about her declining poll numbers. And third are stories about how Vice President Joe Biden might enter the Democratic presidential race.

Weigel isn’t exaggerating: For roughly the past two months, voters have heard almost nothing about Clinton apart from these three types of stories. I went through the archives of the news aggregation website Memeorandum, which uses an algorithm to identify the top U.S. news stories of the day. I tracked whether there was a Clinton-related headline in one of the top three positions at 11 a.m. each morning and, if so, what the subject was.2 You can see the results below:

The whole analysis is insightful and well worth a full read beyond this excerpt.
September 15, 2015


Source: FloridaPolitics.com (and Public Policy Polling)

A new survey in Florida shows 47 percent of voters want Jeb Bush to drop out of the GOP presidential race, and 48 percent would prefer Marco Rubio do the same.


“Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are polling well behind Donald Trump and Ben Carson with Republicans even in their home state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And when you look at the overall Florida electorate, a plurality of voters think Bush and Rubio should just end their campaigns.”

Only 40 percent of voters in the state think Bush should keep running, compared to 47 percent who think he should drop out. Just 42 percent believe Rubio should continue on with his campaign to 48 percent who believe he should end it.

... Bush would lose to the New York City real estate mogul..., winning by a 55-38 percent margin. And Trump is actually has a slightly higher favorability rating in the Sunshine State in comparison to the former Florida Governor. Trump’s 56/35 favorability rating comes in a tick ahead of Bush’s 55/36 favorability. When we polled the state earlier this year Bush led the Republican field at 25 percent, and boasted a 66/24 rating.

Read more: http://floridapolitics.com/archives/190331-ppp-poll-plurality-of-floridians-want-jeb-bush-and-marco-rubio-to-drop-to-out

Here's a link to the polling.

This is HORRIBLE news for Bush's puppet-masters.

It's starting to look like well over $114,000,000 down the toilet.

Pretty damn bad news for VP candidate Rubio, too.

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