Source: Tampa Bay Times

A new swing-state poll by Quinnipiac University finds that Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are the clear winners in party primaries in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Vice President Joe Biden does as well as Clinton in general election matchups against Republicans.
...
Clinton received support of 48 percent of Florida Democrats followed by 15 percent for Sanders and 11 percent for Biden, with 17 percent undecided. Among Republicans, Trump gets 21 percent, with 17 percent for Bush and 11 percent each for Rubio and Ben Carson. No other candidate tops 7 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
...
When Florida Republicans were asked which candidate they would definitely not support, 29 percent chose Trump, 17 percent chose Bush and Rand Paul and 16 percent chose Chris Christie.

Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/q-poll-in-florida-favors-clinton-bush-but-good-news-for-biden/2242033

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Florida's Ex-Gov. Bush is losing to Trump in Florida?!?

Florida Sen. Rubio cannot poll ahead of Trump, Bush, or Carson - a doctor with no political experience or any ties to Florida?!?

I guess the Florida Republicans who know Bush and Rubio best are not sold on the Bush or Rubio campaigns. This shocks me.

Source: Washington Post

DERRY, N.H. — They showed up by the hundreds. They stood in line under the hot sun for hours. They carried paper cut-outs of Donald Trump’s face. They folded into the seats of a high school auditorium here, hard rock music pulsating, and got ready to ask questions of the bombastic billionaire they hope to elect president. This was Trump’s first New Hampshire town hall meeting, and the place was crackling.

A few minutes in, a man in the crowd shouted, “Isn’t Jeb sinking to the bottom of [Lake] Winnipesaukee by now?”... Jeb Bush wasn’t at the bottom of any lake. He was 19 miles down the road from Derry, firing some shots of his own at Trump as he turned in an otherwise workmanlike performance before a sedate crowd of about 150 who gathered at the local VFW post in Merrimack.
...
But for now, at least, Bush faces a squeeze. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is moving swiftly to take advantage of the former Florida governor’s difficulties and make inroads with the kind of mainstream voters who otherwise would migrate to Bush.... Trump taunted Bush with his visit on Wednesday. Only after Bush had announced his Merrimack town hall meeting did Trump schedule his for the same time in nearby Derry, inviting comparisons between their crowd sizes and performance levels.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/jeb-bush-should-be-winning-nh-but-he-is-getting-squeezed-on-both-sides/2015/08/19/f600ee88-4682-11e5-846d-02792f854297_story.html

good analysis that's fun to read:

Jeb Bush planned to win the Republican primary with a shock-and-awe strategy. Instead, it's been a shocking fall for the onetime GOP frontrunner.

He started the campaign with the most famous name in Republican politics, a $100 million-plus stake, and clear, if underwhelming, favorite status in early polling. But Bush has fallen fastest and farthest against the backdrop of Donald Trump's rise.... Trump's success is rooted in his ability to tell grassroots Republican voters exactly what they want to hear, particularly on immigration. Bush prides himself on telling them what he thinks they need to hear, especially when they disagree with him. Rather than winning credit for sticking to his guns, he has alienated large portions of the Republican electorate.

The broader context here is that fundamental assumptions about the strength of Bush's candidacy must be reassessed... because Trump ... emergence has exposed and emphasized some of Bush's deepest flaws. Conservatives don't trust him, he isn't unifying the establishment, he's bland on the trail, and, next to Trump, Bush seems like the consummate political insider. As a result, it's getting harder to see how he would build a coalition to win the nomination.
...

*45 percent of Republicans trust Donald Trump the most on the economy, compared with 8 percent for Bush.
*Trump gets 44 percent on the question who "can best handle illegal immigration," with Bush coming in second at 12 percent.
*By a 32 percent to 16 percent spread over second-place finisher Bush, Republicans choose Trump as the best choice for dealing with ISIS.
*At 7 percent, Bush tied with Marco Rubio at sixth among voters who support the Tea Party, ranking behind Trump (27 percent), Ben Carson (11 percent), Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (10 percent each), and Carly Fiorina (9 percent).

Source: Washington Post

Bolded in his newly released plan on how Donald Trump would solve our country's immigration problems if he becomes president ... Trump proposes ... deporting immigrants convicted of a crime and detaining and deporting immigrants caught crossing the border illegally .... he would kick out most immigrants who are in the country illegally...:

TODD: You'll rescind that one, too? You'll rescind the Dream Act executive order, the DACA?
TRUMP: We have to make a whole new set of standards. And when people come in, they have to come in ... we're going to keep the families together. We have to keep the families together.
TODD: But you're going to kick them out?
TRUMP: They have to go.... Chuck, we either have a country or we don't have a country. Either we have a country or not.

As with many things Trump, he's appealing to a vocal minority of Americans. And on this particular issue, he's also appealing to a vocal minority of his fellow Republicans — most of whom disagree with him.... Gallup found that 65 percent of all Americans favored some sort of path to citizenship. The next-most-popular option was deportation, but just 19 percent favored that option, while 14 percent wanted to let them stay for limited amount of time.




Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/17/donald-trump-says-illegal-immigrants-have-to-go-only-31-percent-of-republicans-agree/

Great discussion over at fivethirtyeight.com:

Nate Silver, editor in chief:

we’re both bearish on Trump, in part, because as the field consolidates, he isn’t likely to pick up that much second-choice support....My concern, if I’m Reince Priebus, isn’t necessarily that Ted Cruz or Donald Trump is going to win the nomination. It’s that an establishment candidate eventually does, but it gets ugly....if you look at the correlation between the share of the primary vote that the nominee gets and how the party does in the general election, it’s pretty strong. ...if you reach the stage where there’s genuine doubt about the identity of the nominee in June, it means that some major constituencies within the Republican Party are going to feel dealt out of the process. And also, you have less time for the sort of healing that parties usually get in June, July, etc. Probably some big fights at the convention, which if nothing else harms the GOP’s ability to control the message.... all these campaigns have to remind themselves is that it’s a marathon, not a sprint, even though the media horde treats it as a series of sprints.

Harry Enten, senior political writer:

We can look back to the 2012 cycle and see where things were in November of 2011. We had Newt Gingrich taking the lead from Herman Cain. Gingrich, Cain, Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann added up to greater than 50 percent of the vote, and Mitt Romney became the nominee. If I’m the GOP’s establishment wing, I’m far more concerned not with what the outsiders added up to, but that there is no insidery candidate who is doing particularly well. ... We already see some of that going on in the Ipsos polling where Trump gains when the contest is down to just him, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, but Bush and Walker gain a lot more ground.

Micah Cohen, senior editor:

Trump is such an unusual candidate — he’s crazier than a Gingrich or a Cain — that his leading the polls right now is indicative of something unusual brewing among Republican voters. And the GOP establishment might have a tougher time reining that energy in this election than in past cycles. And the post-debate Carson bump, even if it’s temporary, backs that up.... there’s no establishment candidate looking too good at the moment. If you’re Reince Priebus, aren’t you sweating a little?

Trump's a loud mouth without much substance or experience, and the know-nothing wing of the Republican party swooning for such a candidate is nothing new or revolutionary.

Trump's support is about 22% of Republicans (on average); in 2012, the loud mouth without much substance or experience was Herman Cain who jumped up to 27%:



In 2008, the loud mouth without much substance or experience was Sarah Palin. McCain-Palin actually won 46% of all votes, and after the election, Palin was better liked by the Republican voters than McCain with 71% believing that McCain made the right choice by picking Palin as his running mate, while only 65% of Republicans thought the party's choice of McCain was the right nominee for president. Palin had a 91% approval rating among Republicans (WAY, WAY, WAY higher than Trump).

Leading into the next election cycle (in 2012), Palin remained extremely popular with Republicans, well ahead of eventual nominee Romney:



In 2000, the loud mouth without much substance or experience was Steve Forbes who -- for a while -- looked like he was going to build on his 1996 campaign when he actually won the Arizona and Delaware primaries.

In 1996, in addition to Forbes, the loud mouth without much substance or experience was Pat Buchanan who won the Louisiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire primaries.

In 1992, the loud mouth without much substance or experience was Ross Perot (remember him?).

In 1988, the loud mouth without much substance or experience was Pat Robertson who won the Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington primaries/caucuses.

The Trump candidacy is interesting, and it tells us much about the current size and shape of the know-nothing wing of the Republican party, and it speaks volumes about the lackluster campaigns of Bush, Walker, and Rubio (the hand picked cluster of establishment candidates from whom the nominee will actually be chosen).

But, please, let's not get carried away with the Trump hype.

Those of us who have survived the Cain administration and the Palin presidency and the Forbes-Buchanan ticket can tell you this - sit back and enjoy watching how Trump makes the Republican insiders fret while he forces the Koch monsters to burn more and more money. You won't get to enjoy this forever.

Source: Politico

At fundraiser, Clinton and Obama supporters revel in unity and hope the vice president will take a pass.

EDGARTOWN, Mass. – As Joe Biden considers a possible run for president, the donors he’d need to be viable appear to be ruling him out....Clinton-Obama unity — not Biden’s decision — was the theme of the weekend on Martha’s Vineyard. The Obamas are currently on vacation on the island, where Bill and Hillary Clinton spent most summers during his two terms. Obama and the former president played golf on Saturday morning and toasted their mutual longtime friend Vernon Jordan at his 80th birthday party that evening.
On Sunday, ... Obama vacation regulars, like private equity investor and golf buddy Glenn Hutchins, mingled over one-bite BLTs and chicken sausages, with the likes of Sandy Berger, Bill Clinton’s national security adviser.

...

While there was some hand-wringing about Bernie Sanders’ rise on Sunday, there’s zero appetite to see the vice president offer himself as another alternative, said Rob Liberatore, who as a former aide to the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has known Biden for more than 30 years.... “I would be surprised if he decided to run, unless something happened to Hillary, something health-wise or who knows what,” said Liberatore.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/boxing-out-joe-biden-121413.html?hp=t2_r

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I am a skeptic of the Biden may run talk. I think it is mostly lazy media trying to manufacture a story line and partly Republican shit stirring.

How to remedy America’s social ills? Exercise the mind’s power to choose, says Ben Carson:

I have always been fascinated with the role that the human psyche plays in our perceptions of ourselves and the world around us.... I mention this because it frames the discussion that I want to begin about the dimensions of the problem of race in this country, and what I see as the best approach to transcending race as an issue that divides us and prevents us from moving forward as one nation under God.
...
An incident in which I attempted to stab a classmate out of anger forced me to confront a dysfunctional attitude that, if unchecked, would impede my ability to succeed in school or realize my dream of one day becoming a doctor. I prayed to God to guide me in becoming more tolerant and forbearing.

There were certainly other societal and institutional dynamics that contributed to the course my life would take. My mother did, from time to time, accept welfare assistance when ends did not meet — but she also worked two or three jobs and was ingeniously resourceful. And societal changes concurrent with the civil rights movement helped to break down barriers and open doors for me that might not have otherwise been available.
...
My view is that, rather than attempting to fight against poverty, we should be encouraging growth. The mental shift may be subtle, but it has profound implications for how we approach public policy. The assumption that people are “poor” grounds them in a mentality that reduces agency and creates more dependency. And more tragically, it obscures the reality that there is an abundance of opportunity that is ready for people who want to avail themselves of it.

Summary for those who don't know much about current second place Republican candidate Dr. Ben Carson but don't care enough to read his editorial on race and poverty: "References to God. I grew up poor and a bit violent. I decided not to stab people because it might hamper my ambitions. More references to God. The governmental social safety net was there for me and my family. I turned out great. Let's remove that governmental social safety net."

W. B. Yeats' "The Second Coming," written in 1919, is my nominee for the most cited poem in political commentary. The line invoked most -- "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity" -- is irresistible. It's always tempting to assume that the side we oppose brings vast reservoirs of demonic energy to bear against our own sad and bedraggled allies.

The other oft-quoted verse comes four lines earlier, "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold." This sentiment comes back again and again, at times of stress when Establishments seem to be tottering and when moderate and conventional politicians find themselves outshouted and outmaneuvered. ... Trumpism does have its uniquely American characteristics. Not many places would turn a loud-mouthed real estate tycoon first into a television celebrity and then into a (temporarily, at least) front-running presidential candidate. You can see Trump as a gift to us all from a raucous entrepreneurial culture that does not hold bad taste against someone as long as he is genuinely gifted at self-promotion.

But Trump is a symptom of a much wider problem in the Western democracies. In country after country, traditional, broadly based parties and their politicians face scorn. More voters than usual seem tired of carefully focus-grouped public statements, deftly cultivated public personas, and cautiously crafted political platforms that are designed to move just the right number of voters in precisely the right places to cast a half-hearted vote for a person or a party.

More well written adult-level discussion here.

from the number crunchers at the 538 blog:

Polls show Donald Trump leading in the Republican presidential primary. He’s leading nationally. He’s leading in Iowa. He’s leading in New Hampshire. That’s right — Donald Trump may end up winning … “Polling Leader for the Summer of 2015.”

Is that a worthwhile prize? Well, it depends. This may be an obvious point, but much of the media seems to be ignoring it: Leading the polls with 20 percent of the vote is not the same as leading with 40 percent or 50 percent or 60 percent.
...
no summer front-runner with less than 33 percent in Iowa (six in total) went on to win the nomination. Trump’s at 19.3 percent in the Real Clear Politics average.
...
Trump’s New Hampshire standing is nothing outstanding either. ... He’s at 24.5 percent right now in the Real Clear Politics average, which (when rounded) is equal to the all-time lowest summer leader in the nine New Hampshire primaries we have polling for (we don’t have summer survey data for either party in 1988 or for the Democrats in 1992). The only two summer polling leaders with less than 30 percent in New Hampshire lost the nomination.