Attorney in TexasAttorney in Texas's Journal
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece headlined The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over. The article (and, more emphatically, the headline) argued that Sanderss rapid ascent in the presidential primary polls had slowed or stopped in polls of New Hampshire and Iowa, at least based on the polls we were seeing at that time. Ever since then, Bernie Sanders fans have been tweeting at me sometimes kindly, sometimes not after every new poll that showed their candidate doing well.
And guess what? ... polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire...
First, lets talk a bit more about his recent gains in the polls, .. Sanders picked up the pace in August, and support for Hillary Clinton has slowly dropped, according to live-interview polls. ... There was a lot of coverage of this weekends Des Moines Register poll (produced by top-notch pollster Ann Selzer), which found Clinton leading Sanders by just 7 percentage points, 37 percent to 30 percent. ... So, Clintons margin over Sanders is at its lowest in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And while national polls werent the focus of my initial article, Sanders has also closed in on Clinton in those.
the whole article.
Source: The Hill
Rick Perrys top Iowa staffer has jumped ship to Rick Santorums campaign, leaving the former Texas governor with just one paid staffer in the first nominating state.
Santorums team confirmed that Karen Fesler, Perrys former Iowa co-chair, has joined its effort in the state after she spent 2012 running Santorums Missouri effort. ... Feslers departure comes one week after Perry lost another top Iowa staffer, Sam Clovis, to the Trump campaign. Fesler had previously worked on Cloviss brief 2014 Senate bid in Iowa.
Its the latest in staffing woes for Perry, who reportedly stopped paying most of his campaign staff. The Des Moines Register reported on Monday that Perry now only has one paid staffer in Iowa.
Perry jumped into the field looking to build on his brief 2012 campaign, when he shot up to as high as 38 percent nationally in late August, 2011, in a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. But he crashed back down to Earth after a panned debate performance ... This cycle, he hasnt eclipsed 5 percent at the polls nationally since October and is an essential lock to finish outside of the top 10 ahead of Septembers CNN debate, polling between 1 and 2 percent.
Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/252346-perry-loses-another-iowa-staffer
Na na na na na na na na hey hey hey goodbye!
Source: MSNBC (Maddow)
The Washington Posts Dave Weigel reports today, for example, on Team Jeb tackling a story about, of all things, Donald Trumps sister.
It started with a Bloomberg Politics interview in which Mark Halperin asked about the Supreme Court and brought up the fact that Trumps sister is an appeals-court judge. The candidate sang his sisters praises, but said hed rule her out for a high court nomination. Weigel picks it up from there:
Trumps quote ran on Aug. 26. One day later, National Review columnist Ramesh Ponnuru pointed out that Maryanne Trump Barry was reliably pro-choice, and once rejected a lawsuit to stop partial birth abortions for semantic machinations about when life began. Just 20 minutes after that article went up, Bushs spokesman and campaign manager tweeted it out, sexing it up a bit to say that Trump actually wanted to put his sister on the bench.
Jebs campaign manager actually pushed the story twice, paging all pro-lifers.
Theres a legitimate question about whether Team Jeb, and in fact all campaigns, would be better off leaving candidates family members out of the debate altogether. Sure, Trump said nice things about his sister, and apparently conservatives have reason to disagree with her, but unless theres a substantive reason to connect the judges views with the candidates, its a questionable line of attack.
Read more: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/team-jeb-adds-trumps-sister-the-mix
Can you smell the desperation?
Take note: when you have raised over $100,000,000 (the most money of any candidate) and have the most endorsements of any candidate in your party and -- despite being born on third base and getting every break -- you're nevertheless polling at single digits, this is what you resort to.
Source: Outside the Beltway
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker took the immigration debate inside the Republican Party to the next level ... Its not just the southern border:Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker says its legitimate to discuss building a wall separating the United States from Canada, as well.
Governor Walker isnt the only one pandering to the anti-immigrant crowd that Trump has attracted, Chris Christie is now suggesting that the Federal Government track immigrants the way FedEx tracks packages:
Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey said on Saturday that if he were elected president he would combat illegal immigration by creating a system to track foreign visitors the way FedExtracks packages.
Like Walker, Christies idea here is less an serious proposal and more an effort to pander to the anti-immigrant sentiment that Trump has tapped into and which he whips up every chance he gets. If nothing else, this should tells us that the Trump phenomenon isnt as much of an anomaly of Republican politics as the more establishment wing of the party would like to believe. When other candidates start making suggesting like this and endorsing Trumps idea of ending birthright citizenship, its a sign that Trumpism is winning the debate in side the Republican Party, even if Trump himself doesnt end up winning the nomination.
Read more: http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/scott-walker-and-chris-christie-pander-to-donald-trumps-anti-immigrant-base/
Source: Des Moines Register
First choice: 23 percent
Rank in field: 1st
Change since May: Up 19 points
Favorability: 61 percent
Change since May: Up 34 points
Trump has pulled off a reversal in how caucusgoers view him. In May, his favorability was upside down: Just 27 percent viewed him favorably and 63 percent unfavorably. Now, it's 61 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable.
Business-oriented establishment types are going for Trump over Jeb Bush 30 percent to 16 percent, said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for the Iowa Poll.
Those who like what they see in Trump include first-time caucusgoers (69 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable), tea party Republicans (73 percent favorable, 24 percent unfavorable) and caucusgoers in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, in northeastern Iowa (70 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable).
By capturing 23 percent of the vote while 61 percent have favorable feelings toward him, "Trump definitely has upside potential," Selzer said. "All the talk about a ceiling was a little premature."
First choice: 8 percent
Rank in field: Tied for 3rd
Change since May: Down 9 points
Favorability: 71 percent
Change since May: Up 5 points
Caucusgoers still really like the Wisconsin governor, but he's no longer their first choice.
Walker gets half the vote he got in May (now 8 percent, down from 17 percent).
Even so, he is up a bit in favorability, trailing only Ben Carson in that measure.
He does best with tea party Republicans (85 percent favorable, 11 percent unfavorable).
Ketzner said: "Walker has had a rough summer. He made a great first impression but hasn't capitalized during the spring and summer months. Iowa is a must-win state for him, and he needs to reignite his campaign soon."
ABOUT THE SAME
First choice: 6 percent
Rank in field: Tied for 5th
Change since May: Down 3 points
Favorability: 45 percent
Change since May: Up 2 points
Iowa Republican likely caucusgoers are tepid toward Jeb Bush, with just 10 percent saying their feelings are very favorable, Selzer said.
He's upside down on overall favorability at 45 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable, including 19 percent very unfavorable.
Bush is right side up with moderates (60 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable), business-oriented establishment Republicans (64 percent/33 percent), those with household incomes of $100,000 or more (59 percent/38 percent), first-time caucus attendees (52 percent/41 percent), those with a college degree or higher (51 percent/44 percent) and those living in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, in southeastern Iowa (51 percent/44 percent).
Ketzner said: "Bush has the financial resources available that no other campaign will ever be able to match. The question they face is: Do they save those dollars for a long primary fight, or do they try to end the primary early by upping their investment in Iowa and finish better than expected?"
Read more: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/08/29/iowa-poll-glance-how-each-gop-candidate-fares/71360766/
It's shocking how badly Bush and Walker are doing.
Remember when his mom said he shouldn't run? So far, at least, it looks like she was right, and that Bush is just an awful candidate.
Here's a thought experiment for you. Imagine you could find a person who didn't know 1) who Jeb Bush was or 2) what pursuit he was involved in. You showed the person a video clip of a Bush press conference or speech, but with the sound turned down, and you asked the person, just based on the expression on Bush's face and the hang of his shoulders and whatnot, where is this man, and what is he doing?
I think your person would say something like: "Well...he looks like he's at a funeral. Attending the funeral of a friend's mother. Or maybe not even a friend. Maybe a co-worker, or employee. He didn't know the woman. But he's there, because he needs to be, and he's paying his respects. I'm so sorry for your loss. I'm sure she was a wonderful woman.' He's doing his duty, but he also looks like he'd really rather be somewhere else."
Nate Silver, editor in chief:
The irony is that the media has exaggerated all sorts of threats to Clinton...but then you have the one thing that would be a tangibly bad sign for her campaign the vice president of the United States running for the nomination against her! and there are lots of smart takes about how it could help Clinton.... But the other big problem (as we and others have pointed out before) is that Biden doesnt have much rationale to run other than if Clinton has trust/scandal problems. He might never come out and say it, but that would be the whole basis for his campaign. They dont really differ in any meaningful way on policy....Hes a party guy. Hes the vice president. Hes not likely to run unless he thinks its in Democrats best interest....Its possible that Biden assesses the problem and miscalculates. But running for president would be a calculated decision on his behalf. And, by the way, if you read the reporting on Biden carefully, it suggests that the decision is very, very calculated. ...If you want data, and Bidens camp is looking at the same data, then they shouldnt be running in the first place. Unless they think the scandal will be Clintons undoing.... White liberals might not like her as much as white moderates, Hispanics, or African-Americans, but as weve argued before, their support for Sanders is more an indication that they like him than that they dislike Clinton. Some of the reporting around what Bidens coalition would be doesnt make any sense. See, for example, from Politico:Bidens circle has identified what they see as their potential voting blocs: Reagan Democrats, Jews, an LGBT base that largely credits him with pushing President Barack Obama into supporting gay marriage, and Rust Belt voters. They believe hell benefit from better stump skills than any of the other candidates running.
Theres no evidence that any of these groups ... have very much in common....I saw some article that offhandedly asserted Biden was polling exceptionally well given that he wasnt in the race yet. Polling at 12 percent or 15 percent or 18 percent among members of his own party doesnt seem that great to me for a guy who is vice president of the United States.
Harry Enten, senior political writer:
... why would Biden run? Sure, hes in his 70s and this is his last shot, but he also has a family to take care of. Hed likely only run if he concludes he has a better than nominal chance of winning. And that conclusion would be quite different from what the current metrics, such as endorsements, suggest. ...Remember when there was talk about whether Chris Christie would get into the 2012 race? Or whether Fred Thompson would get into the 2008 race? Or Wesley Clark into the 2004 race? Those guys were tied or leading in the primary polling at the time. Bidens best percentage so far has been 18 percent. Hes down nearly 30 percentage points to Clinton. Clinton is still in a ridiculously strong position.
link to the whole enlightening discussion
Source: Talking Points Memo
Attendees at a Republican fundraiser in Colorado Wednesday say that House Speaker John Boehner called Sen. Ted Cruz a "jackass," the Daily Caller reported
Two of the attendees -- one going on record with his name -- told the Daily Caller that Boehner referred to the Texas Republican as a jackass during his remarks. In their accounts, Boehner said that the 2016 presidential race kept "that jackass" away from Washington.
The event was a fundraiser for Rep. Scott Tipton (R-CO) in Steamboat Springs, Colorado.
Cruz has long had a reputation for being a thorn in Boehner's side, having led a government shutdown over Obamacare for 2013 and publicly causing leadership headaches on various occasions.
Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/john-boehner-ted-cruz-jackass
I had assumed there was no topic on which I agreed with Boehner.
I stand corrected.