Attorney in Texas
Attorney in Texas's Journal
Brand New Iowa Poll - Sanders beats Cruz, but Cruz beats Clinton; Sanders beats Carson, but Clinton
is tied with Carson; Sanders does 5% better than Clinton head-to-head against Rubio, and also does better head-to-head against Fiorina and Trump.
Link.
Bernie Sanders to nab one of his biggest endorsements yet
Source: MSNBC
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is set to pick up one of his biggest endorsements yet Thursday from the powerful Communications Workers of America union, sources told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell.
The group represents some 700,000 workers nationally, making it by far the largest union to back Sanders yet. CWA’s endorsement, which will be announced at a press conference at 11:00 a.m. Thursday at the union’s headquarters in Washington, comes as Sanders has lost out on a string of major union endorsements to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, whose campaign now claims the support of unions representing 12 million workers.
Larry Cohen, CWA’s former president, joined Sanders’ campaign as a top labor adviser shortly after stepping down in June. The union has been hinting a possible Sanders endorsement for months, saying the decision would come only after members voted in an online poll. The national union did not issue an endorsement in the 2008 Democratic primary between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Read more: http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/bernie-sanders-cwa-endorsement
Sanders Gained The Most Twitter Followers During The GOP Debate, Which Is A Bad Sign For Republicans
link to "Bernie Sanders Gained The Most Twitter Followers During The GOP Debate, Which Is A Bad Sign For Republican Candidates;" excerpt:
Twitter's Government and Elections team tracked which 2016 presidential candidates gained the most Twitter followers during the debate, which certainly doesn't account for all voter support, but does give us some idea of how young people particularly responded to the fifth GOP showdown. Surprisingly enough, the candidate who gained the most followers wasn't a Republican, but a Democrat. Bernie Sanders gaining more Twitter followers during the debate than anyone on stage in Las Vegas Tuesday night doesn't bode well for the GOP in the general election.
After Sanders, Donald Trump's following increased the most, trailed by Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz, according to Twitter. Poor Hillary Clinton, left out of all the action. The fifth GOP debate was very chaotic, with a lot of yelling, bickering, and incoherent answers, and was actually pretty difficult to watch. So, it's quite telling that so many people followed Sanders on Twitter as it went down, making it seem like an event meant to promote the Republican party was actually driving voters away. Of course, some people still loyal to the GOP could have followed Sanders out of curiosity or in an effort to stay up-to-date on the election as a whole, but they sure chose a suspicious time to do so.
...When someone outperforms Trump on Twitter, you know it's serious.
If the GOP debates continue to be free-for-alls, the party's odds for taking the White House in 2016 will become slimmer as voters get tired of watching the numerous Republicans attack one another, battling for attention and camera time. Though TV ratings might be high due to all the drama, those watching are supporting Democrats online. Twitter has spoken, and it favors Sanders.
In 2008, Clinton was at 29.4%, Obama was at 27.7%, Edwards was at 25.5% the NIGHT BEFORE the caucus
The very next day, Obama won with 10% more of the vote than the polling forecast just THE NIGHT BEFORE.
Edwards came in second with 4% more support than forecast just THE NIGHT BEFORE.
Clinton came in THIRD place, two spots below where her supporters said she would finish (and it was not even particularly close between Obama and Clinton).
A race where the candidates are within 10% THE NIGHT BEFORE the caucus is a tight race.
A race where the candidates are within 10% SIX WEEKS BEFORE the caucus is an extremely tight race.
Today's Quinnipiac poll confirms yesterday's Des Moines Register poll -- Iowa is a very tight race
Yesterday's new Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register showed Sanders within single digits of Clinton, and today's Quinnipiac poll shows Sanders just 11% behind Clinton in Iowa with some great cross-tab numbers:
Sanders leads Clinton net +89% to net +44 in honesty and trustworthiness;
Sanders leads Clinton net +89% to net +60 in caring about the voters' needs;
Sanders leads Clinton net +78% to net +56 in sharing the voters' values;
Sanders leads Clinton 48% to 42% among liberals;
Sanders leads Clinton 52% to 39% among men;
8% of Iowa Democrats will never support Clinton, only 4% feel that was about Sanders;
For Iowa Democrats, the key issues are Sanders' issues: the economy and jobs (top issue at 35%) and climate change (third issue at 11%), which is critical because
Sanders is viewed as the best candidate on jobs, the economy, and climate change.
Contrary to some of the other poll numbers floating around, Quinnipiac uses the established method of live phone (cell and landline) polling with a large sample size and is one of the most active pollsters working in Iowa (the latest poll is the 7th this year), and the trend is very positive.
Yesterday’s new Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register also follows the established method of live phone (cell and landline) polling with a large sample size (and yesterday's poll was the 6th Des Moines Register Iowa poll this year), and the Des Moines Register poll also showed similarly good cross-tab numbers:
* Sanders has a 21% lead over Clinton in honesty and trustworthiness (52% to 31%);
* Sanders has a 20% lead over Clinton as the candidate who will fight for the middle class (56% to 36%);
* Sanders has a 11% lead over Clinton as the candidate who cares about the voters (49% to 38%);
* Sanders has a 28% lead over Clinton as the candidate who will fix Wall Street (57% to 29%);
* Sanders has a 25% lead over Clinton among independents who caucus with the Democrats (51% to 26%);
* Sanders has a 27% lead over Clinton among those under 45 years old (58% to 31%);
* Sanders has a 9% lead over Clinton among those first time caucus voters (49% to 40%);
* Sanders has a 4% lead over Clinton among liberals (48% to 44%);
* Sanders has a 19% lead over Clinton among the non-religious (55% to 36%);
* The voters agree with Sanders rather than Clinton on the Iraq war, Wall Street bailouts and banking, NAFTA and TPP, marijuana legalization, health care, and tax policy; and
* If you add the first choice and second choice numbers (a critical factor in a caucus) Clinton is at 75% and Sanders is right on her heels is at 72%.
The Iowa caucus is six weeks away, and polls will fluctuate in those six weeks. For example, in the last presidential election cycle, the Republican poll leader in Iowa shifted from Gingrich to who was leading by a comfortable margin six weeks before the caucus to Romney who was in fourth place six weeks out to Santorum who won the caucus despite being tied for fifth place six weeks before the caucus.
The Sanders campaign is where it should be six weeks before the caucus -- in a close race with good cross-tab numbers embedded within the most recent and most reliable polling.
New poll: Clinton -11% (37% favorable; 48% unfavorable) Sanders +5% (36% favorable; 31% unfavorable)
Sanders has a better net favorability rating than any of the candidates polled:
+5 - Sanders
+3 - Rubio
+1 - Carson
- 2 - Obama
-10 - Cruz
-11 - Clinton
-22 - Jeb!
-32 - Trump
Here is a link.
Noticeably, regardless of whether you look at this new poll or the aggregation of previous live phone polling, Sanders and Clinton have very similar favorability numbers, but her unfavorability numbers are much worse, and Sanders' favorable numbers are trending up while Clinton's are trending down (both in terms of her favorable numbers falling and her net negative favorable/unfavorable gap widening). Here is a graph of the live phone polling on the topic:
Hillary Clinton Faces Call for New Ethics Investigation After Son-in-Law Asked for a Business Favor
link; excerpt:This time, the Democratic presidential front-runner is accused of giving special government access to an investor in a deep-sea mining company due to his ties to Clinton's son-in-law, hedge fund manager Marc Mezvinsky. ... The complaint, first obtained by TIME, comes two weeks after one of Clinton's court-ordered email releases showed that she asked a senior State Department official to follow up on a special request from Mezvinsky, the husband of her daughter, Chelsea Clinton.
In a May 2012 email, the investor, Harry Siklas, asked Mezvinsky to connect him with Clinton or other State Department officials "to discuss mining and the current legal issues and regulations."
Three months later, according to State Department emails, Clinton forwarded Siklas' note to then-deputy secretary of state Thomas Nides, writing, "Could you have someone follow up on this request which was forwarded to me?" Nides replied that he would "get on it."
The Sanders campaign is EXACTLY where it should be at this moment in Iowa
Today’s new Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register shows Sanders within single digits of Clinton, and this is part of an excellent polling trend in Iowa:
Most Smoothing
Moderate Smoothing
Least Smoothing
As you can see, the polling trend is so uniform that it does not much matter how you graph the data to show that Clinton is trending downward while Sanders is trending upward (I include all three graphs to address the inevitable whining from the Crown-Her-Now! Squad).
This polling is critical and very encouraging for three reasons.
First, it is very significant that this is a Des Moines Register poll because Iowa is a caucus state, and – as a result -- it is particularly difficult to accurately poll, and the Des Moines Register poll has by far the best record of accurate results:
Ann Selzer's secret sauce -- Iowa's legendary pollster explains what makes her the best in the business
At a time when trust in public polling has eroded after high-profile failures in elections across the country and around the globe, people in Iowa still have faith that one woman can accurately measure where things stand in next year’s volatile caucuses.
That woman, J. Ann Selzer, has predicted election after election in Iowa…The recent track record of her firm, Selzer & Company, is impressive: Selzer, who has polled for the Des Moines Register for decades, was the only pollster to nail the order of Democratic candidates in 2004. Her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucusgoers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory. Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the waning days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.
Second, the timing of Sanders’ rise is perfect. Cruz had a big rise in the simultaneous Des Moines Register poll of Republicans in Iowa, and the question has arisen whether he has peaked too early:
Obradovich: Is Cruz peaking too soon?...
There’s little doubt that Cruz would be in position to win the caucuses if they came in early January, as they did in 2012 and 2008. ... The question is whether the Texas senator can ride this rocket until Feb. 1 and win the Iowa caucuses. The answer is a solid “maybe.” Polls are merely snapshots in time, and predictions made even a month in advance are like trying to dance on a trampoline, wearing stilts.
Iowa GOP caucus polls from 2011 show how fast the ground can shift. In the Register’s Iowa Poll taken Nov. 27-30, 2011, Newt Gingrich was winning with 25 percent, and Ron Paul was second with 18 percent. Mitt Romney, who would win the vote count on caucus night, was in fourth place with 16 percent. The eventual caucus winner, Rick Santorum, was tied with Rick Perry with 6 percent. Only Jon Huntsman, who wasn’t campaigning in Iowa, was lower, at 2 percent.
Finally, the internal numbers of the poll look very good for Sanders:
* Sanders has a 21% lead over Clinton in honesty and trustworthiness (52% to 31%);
* Sanders has a 20% lead over Clinton as the candidate who will fight for the middle class (56% to 36%);
* Sanders has a 11% lead over Clinton as the candidate who cares about people like the voter (49% to 38%);
* Sanders has a 28% lead over Clinton as the candidate who will fix Wall Street (57% to 29%);
* Sanders has a 25% lead over Clinton among independents who will caucus with the Democrats (51% to 26%);
* Sanders has a 27% lead over Clinton among those under 45 years old (58% to 31%);
* Sanders has a 9% lead over Clinton among those first time caucus voters (49% to 40%);
* Sanders has a 4% lead over Clinton among liberals (48% to 44%);
* Sanders has a 19% lead over Clinton among the non-religious (55% to 36%);
* The voters agree with Sanders rather than Clinton on the Iraq war, Wall Street bailouts and banking, NAFTA and TPP, marijuana legalization, health care, and tax policy; and
* If you add the first choice and second choice numbers (a critical factor in a caucus) Clinton is at 75% and Sanders is right on her heels is at 72%.
Sanders' Iowa Supporters Try to Get New People out to Caucus
Source: ABC News
Getting new people out to these party organizing events, which usually draw small numbers, remains the holy grail of Iowa politics. In 2008, Barack Obama helped boost attendance to an unmatched 240,000 Democrats and won on his way to the presidency. ... "We have to reach out to first-time caucus goers or caucus goers who haven't caucused in a long time," said Pete D'Alessandro, who is running the Iowa operation for the Vermont senator and Democratic contender. ... Sanders, who is back in Iowa this weekend, has been greeted rapturously on previous trips through the state, pumping up thousands of people at rallies with soaring rhetoric. But while his campaign message — with pledges of paid family leave, free public university and single-payer health care — has been received with enthusiasm, Sanders lags behind Clinton in state polls.
...
Undaunted, a passionate force of paid and volunteer staffers is working all out for Sanders for caucus night Feb. 1. His campaign has brought in millions in contributions, enough to make him competitive when it comes to Iowa staffing. Currently, he has 91 paid people on the ground, about 70 of them organizers, and 21 offices across the state.
...
Pollster Ann Selzer, who conducts the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, noted one similarity between the contest today and in 2007. In Selzer's October poll, Clinton was leading the field, as she was then. But Selzer also noted that Obama held a double-digit lead with independents eight years ago and Sanders holds an even larger lead with that group this time.
"On paper you would say Sanders is in a better place" than Obama, the eventual Iowa winner, in 2007, Selzer said. But the question, she said, is whether he has the organization to turn that potential into caucus votes.
Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/sanders-iowa-supporters-people-caucus-35729757?nfo=/desktop_newsfeed_ab_refer_homepage
Profile Information
Member since: Sun Aug 2, 2015, 11:10 AMNumber of posts: 3,373
