January 13, 2016

Well her supporters obviously do because she's lied so frequently

it's the only way left for them to handle it.

60% of Americans do not trust Hillary Clinton. Those are repeated poll results. I'm not making that up.

The Republicans are already hammering away at "untrustworthy" with Hillary. They hammered away at Obama being a Muslim Kenyan and got 20% of the electorate to believe that. 60% are believing the untrustworthy label because Hillary has been caught lying a lot - there's some truth to the allegation so it sticks more.

I can't recall a presidential candidate in my lifetime getting elected president while 60% of the country finds them untrustworthy. It's a really bad polling number.

It's helping Bernie right now who is a significant contrast to that behavior.

It's a key reason why she is a turnoff as a candidate for me because I can't believe in what she's telling me - she's burned me too many times.

It's a problem Hillary cannot shake and here she is, sending her daughter out to carry on the family tradition of lying to the American people. Not a good moment for Hillary. That's self destruction/implosion.

January 13, 2016

When folks catch on to crap like that, it often backfires

January 13, 2016

Unfortunately, folks looking for the quick answer don't fully inform themselves

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/

"Therefore, we think the models (polls-only model & polls-plus model) are more useful when looked at together."

That one sentence doesn't replace what Nate says at that link about what is behind his analysis. It underscores that before drawing too much conclusion incorrectly like the simplistic top post in this thread, one needs to look a little deeper at what Nate is trying to tell people with this information. Nate should stick to doing what he's doing. People should not stick to interpreting Nate incorrectly.

Normally, I'd lean more towards Nate's polls plus model in the general election. In the primary, I'd currently lean more towards the polls only model because things like endorsements and national polling are in Clinton's favor because Sanders is coming on - folks do not know him and what he stands for well nationally yet. If Sanders wins Iowa and NH, that's going to change - something like it did for Obama. In fact, Sanders good results recently are starting to change the mainstream's view and coverage of his candidacy. I think that will continue to drive Nate's results further towards Sanders over the next couple of weeks.

January 13, 2016

ARG had him +3 earlier this week

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/iadem.html

Iowa is a dead heat though Bernie probably currently has the momentum ...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

January 13, 2016

That's about where Obama was

He had a little flutter up to 20 but was 13 or so before the Iowa caucus.

Iowa gave him a good jolt and then super Tuesday cemented him.

I won't guarantee history will repeat itself here but it's looking pretty good for Bernie right now to make a real race of this thing.

January 12, 2016

CNN: Is Hillary Clinton's campaign in trouble?

Source: CNN.com

Recent polls show Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton in both New Hampshire and in Iowa. CNN's Brianna Keilar reports.



Read more: http://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2016/01/12/could-hillary-lose-to-sanders-keilar-dnt-lead.cnn

---

As for other mainstream headlines

ABC: New Polls Concern Clinton Campaign
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/polls-concern-clinton-campaign-36202212

MSNBC Despite polling, uncertainty is the only thing certain in Democratic race
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/polls-take-democratic-primary-and-wild-ride
"few expected a septuagenarian democratic socialist would force Clinton to send such dire warnings to her supporters."

NBC News : Poll: Neck-And-Neck 2016 Races in Iowa, New Hampshire
Sanders outperforms Clinton in general-election matchups
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states - something other surveys have found, too.

CBS: NH Poll: Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in every major voting bloc
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nh-poll-bernie-sanders-leads-every-major-voting-bloc/

CBS: Trump: Clinton having "tough time" against Sanders in 2016 race
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-clinton-having-tough-time-against-sanders-in-2016-race/


Beyond the tightening polls. This is not good for the Clinton campaign when they start to see headlines like that on the mainstream news sites and their videos .

Hat tip to Bernie's campaign who have done precisely what they had to to this point - get within striking distance on New Hampshire (which they've exceeded) and Iowa (which is now a true toss up with momentum in Sanders corner).

There's little doubt that this race has changed and Bernie's very, very much in it now.

January 12, 2016

I don't like the word hate but I HATE FOX "News"

because they spew BS and hate 24/7.

But if it were the Bush Foundation and their donors, like Halliburton, were getting arms deals, etc we'd be all over that (and we were with Halliburton during the Bush/Cheney years).

I've looked at that Foundation donor stuff some - did some of my own research and I'd quickly concur that I saw no "proof" but to be honest and forthright, it smelled pretty bad. So if she takes some hits on that, some of it is their responsibility because the Clintons were in a position to know what the perceptions were going to be and went ahead with it.

January 12, 2016

It happens to all candidates

The different is how much it happens and how much traction it will get. The volume of Clinton's scandals, flip-flops and lies is likely to get more traction than most in my opinion.

Trying to brand Bernie as a commie is coming. And they'll probably ding him a few points in the polls for it. But what I'm seeing is as more people get familiar with him, they like him and he's still rising.

Everyone knows who Hillary is, a good percentage do not like or trust her so she's close to her ceiling. YHou're not likely to see a big rise or lots of enthusiasm.

January 12, 2016

Iowa is a true toss up in Real Clear poll of polls - Clinton +0.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

and he's starting to get some daylight in New Hampshire +6.2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

I'm not surprised by NH but Clinton was +17.7 less than four weeks ago in Iowa. Closing that gap so quickly is undeniable and pretty major.

Classy top post

January 12, 2016

I agree. And it does strike me as a bit of a blinders on or a bizarre position

because it's my biggest fear. I worry that the library of crap they can spin on her is so great they'll have a different scandal, flip-flop or lie replaying every day of the last 60 days of the campaign. And the Clinton campaign will be playing so much defense, it will be hard to get other messages out.

No doubt that I like Bernie more for a number of reasons. But my biggest thing is defending our last 8 years of effort with a Dem president. Hillary's poorer electability is a big difference to me between the two. And I think she's more vulnerable than the polls show because Bernie hasn't been doing much attacking. The the GOP really cut loose I think she'll fall and won't be able to bounce back unless the GOP has a worse fall.

Look at Bill's sex scandal. Many folks around here would agree with Clinton supporters that that wasn't Hillary's fault and shouldn't have a much place in this election.

But the GOP are going to play that up for everything thing it's worth. And it's worth something because many will subconsciously flash back to the time when they were not exactly proud of the Clintons in the White House because the president was taking time out of his busy schedule for getting blow jobs in the Oval Office. That's not my favorite memory of the Clinton years but the GOP will not let me forget it. And it will dent her in the polls a point or two.

Travelgate, Whitewater ... through to the still smoldering Benghazzi, Emailgate, Clinton foundation payoffs, etc.

Bernie does not have that big amount of baggage. They'll burn him some with his socialist label but when many folks find out what that really means, it's not going to hurt him nearly as much of all the stuff they have on Hillary.