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Jarqui

Jarqui's Journal
Jarqui's Journal
December 23, 2015

PUMA 2008 "Party Unity My Ass" a Hillary's support group

Approximately 25% polled declared they vote for McCain right after Hillary's concession speech. Maybe they cooled down.

December 23, 2015

They did this with Obama as well

"palling around with terrorists", "he's a Muslim", "he was born in Kenya - he's not an American"

And some of it stuck. To this day, we see polls where a strangely high number of Republicans believe he is a Muslim Kenyan who likes terrorists.

The thing is, it was not broadly accepted because it wasn't true.

Quinnipac poll has had Hillary at 59-60% of Americans don't trust her. Go to Youtube and search "Hillary" with "lies" or "lying" or "liar". The problem with that stuff is that it's Hillary's own words making the case that Hillary is a liar/flip-flopper. So it resonates more with voters. Koch money can probably drive that untrustworthy number to 70% when they've pummeled Americans with the Youtube videos on lying - because there is a much more plausible case easily made.

They'll attempt to make Bernie out as a commie. No question. But that's like the Obama allegations. Some tin hats, like the Birthers or those who believe Obama is a Muslim will buy it but few others.

December 23, 2015

One other point to add that is a bit chilling

A heck of a lot of the polls I've seen seem to favor Hillary's demographics (usually, heavier distribution of older voters who favor Hillary than typical of exit polls (or even sometimes the census) with a reduction in younger voters who favor Sanders) and consequently these polls are arguably more unfavorable to Sanders. They inflate Clinton's advantage.

If Sanders is still performing better than Hillary against the GOP under those circumstances, it could get uglier for Hillary with "proper" demographics. Hopefully, a reputable, indepdendent pollster can get to the bottom of that.

Maybe that's part of the Clinton campaign strategy - get this thing over fast before folks figure things like that out. Like Obama's insurgency, Sanders is picking up on the campaign donations. If he can take Iowa and New Hampshire, it's game on.

And maybe that explains a part of what is going on in the media: if the above is true (and it sure looks that way to me) the GOP won't want to face Bernie either - they'd rather Hillary (and they would see past fuzzy poll demographics). Left and right media corporations are tied to Clintons or the GOP ...

December 23, 2015

Maybe i'm biased but compared the the Republican debates

I've thought all three of the Dem candidates have made a good account of themselves in all three debates. I also felt that all three Dem debates were significantly better than the Republican debates. They were more civil with a better quality discussion of the differences and issues.

December 23, 2015

If MLK had had your attitude, I'm not sure we would have ever heard of him

Sure as heck are not going to get any closer to Sanders policies sitting on our hands.

If Bernie gets to the general election, he's got a really good shot of winning.

If he can win Iowa and New Hampshire (where he's leading), he's got a good shot in this primary.

Maybe all we get are some good Supreme Court nominees - that's probably the worst case.

We can engage in this fight to overturn gerrymandering
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/29/1394141/-Republicans-rigged-the-House-through-gerrymandering-Democrats-can-fight-back-at-the-ballot-box

Upcoming demographics are going to hit the GOP like a tidal wave - probably sooner than you think. They're going to lose Texas in the not too distant future and then, this version of the GOP will NEVER regain the White House. It's a dead end for that party as we know it.

Suck it up. Hang in there. Don't give up on your dreams.

December 23, 2015

He does better with Republicans and Independents

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us12222015_Uhkm63g.pdf

He gets more Republican voters (difference vs Trump is 9 pt swing better for Sanders in the above poll)
He gets more Independents (difference vs Trump is 14 pt swing better for Sanders in the above poll)

Republicans and Independents do not like Hillary as much as they like Bernie. (or they hate Hillary much more might be a better way of putting it)

We see that in poll after poll. Right now he's the better general election candidate in my opinion.
December 23, 2015

I believe during Weaver's press conference he mentioned

that the different vendor at fault (at least one of the times) in October was a modeling software company the DNC uses. As I understand it, that is a different software application in terms of functionality than the NGP VAN system.

December 23, 2015

Again, as the post I linked detailed:

Your claim:
"they didn't have to pound the DB with endless
... queries for 2 hours continuously non stop just perfor the searches within a 2 hour period. "

My post details that isn't what they did. The breach was far short of 2 hrs.

Users:
1. 15 minutes plus 1 minute
2. 40 mins
3. 11 mins plus 10 mins (where he does different stuff)
4. 1 minute (looks like to test a login)

I think the 2 hours claim is an overstatement.

You forget or do not consider that the IT Data manager at Sanders campaign had had at least a couple of breaches before. No media was called by the DNC. No auditor arranged for by the DNC to determine the extent of exposure of their data loss. No cutting off the other campaign from access. Nothing but "thanks for telling us" He had done as you suggest at least twice before and it didn't do him or his campaign much good. He never got much assurance or analysis of what they lost or peace of mind that they'd nailed the problem.

A definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing while hoping for different results. Some may well not agree with his actions but he chose to do something different this time. And under the circumstances, I agree with him. I would have done the same thing.

And if he'd done what he did the last two times - not done what he did this time, Sanders data today could still be exposed. His actions have led to Sanders being in a very good legal position to press the issue in court if need be. And maybe expose the Clinton campaign of pinching his data (they're very confident someone compromised it - they want to know who). Without what Josh did, how could they do that today? They'd have no proof or witnesses it ever happened. Someday, the Sanders campaign might figure that out.

December 23, 2015

The breach began at 10:40 and ended at 11:27 - 47 mins not 2 hrs

And nobody was on it for 47 mins solid.

Here's the breakdown:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=939658

It is not as you claim above. Those are the logs and facts. You can't fantasize "nearly 2 hrs" and some of the other stuff you are.

December 23, 2015

First user in accessed Clinton's fields starting at 10:40am for about 15 mins

before their session timed out. They come back for a minute before the breach is turned off.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/12/18/merged_document.pdf

The next user is in about 3 minutes after the first at 10:43 and they generate lists using Clintons data for most of the time - nearly 40 minutes.

At 10:46, the user I suspect as Uretsky accesses Clintons data for about 11 minutes. doesn't access Clintons stuff for about 16 mins (creates some users which is why I think it's Uretsky), then he resumes for about 10 mins. My guess would be that during the 11 minutes he's not doing much at all, he's on the phone or giving instructions. I doubt he's giving instructs because the other two are carrying on. So he's probably on the phone to the campaign about 20 mins into the discovery and maybe 14 minutes after he found out.

The last user in does one search around 11am and saved nothing - roughly 1 minute of Clinton data access - probably Uretsky testing a different login that he'd just created.

Uretsky may have looked at this stuff for 14 minutes or less before he got on the horn. And they fired him, so they say, for not telling them soon enough.

I would have been fired too because I would have done something like he'd done and the way he did it - except I would have gone for O'Malley's data if possible - trying to stay away from Clinton's stuff.

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