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Jarqui

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Member since: Sun Aug 23, 2015, 02:58 PM
Number of posts: 8,975

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Hillary won the state in 2008 BUT .... (as you say ..)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_democratic_caucus-236.html

she lost the Nevada delegates contest 11-14 to Obama:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Hillary's biggest lead on Obama in South Carolina was around +18
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html
She lost the state to Obama -28.9.

This time, Hillary is +46.9 over Sanders in SC - WAY ahead of where she was in 2008
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html
That lead is so massive, it's hard to imagine Bernie catching up. 30% of the population is black and Bernie isn't doing nearly as well with Blacks as Obama did.

So if Harry can tilt NV Hillary's way along with her winning the state vote again like she did last time against Obama (she's +26.5 right now) and SC goes the way it's looking to go, Bernie pretty much has to get Iowa and hang on to New Hampshire. Since September, Sanders pretty much lost his 12 point lead in New Hampshire and has fallen from a tie to down 24 points in Iowa. So the recent trends probably have to turn around in those states or he's toast. If you want Bernie to win, that's where he could really use some help.

I want Bernie to win but

"the fact that Bernie has gained just as much support as Hillary these past few weeks, and is in fact now at record high numbers nationally"


I'm not so sure that's an accurate claim.

At the end of September, Clinton was +13.2 over Bernie. Now, Clinton is +21.6 over Bernie. So Bernie hasn't gained as much support as Hillary over the past few weeks. Bernie is at an all time high in part because Biden dropped out to provide a boost. But Hillary got more of Biden's supporters than Bernie did (which roughly explains Clinton's surge/gain).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

The start of the 2016 primaries is roughly a month later than 2008. So it could be argued that Clinton's lead of +25.6 on Oct 12, 2008 over Obama or her lead of +23.0 on Nov 12, 2008 has Bernie closer to Clinton than Obama was at the same time during their contest - if your looking for something factually positive to grab on to.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#charts

I think what we have to watch closely is the early Feb 2016 primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina. Bernie's doing well in NH already. Iowa and Nevada are caucuses of some kind so he could surprise like Obama did there (though you can be sure Clinton will be much more vigilant and determined at the caucus level this time around). In order to close on Clinton and legitimately contend, he's going to need some good early showings to prove he might be able to beat her. Like Obama, that will get him media coverage and momentum if he can pull that off and then we'll have a real contest. Hopefully, something like that happens to close the gap.

As one of the articles pointed out with this, he most certainly does

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/ben-carson/

I think that's why all these anecdotes are getting scrutinized. Since he has no political background, his life story is pretty much all they have to look at.

I still haven't got over that one

and I think her less publicized claim about helping Ireland get peace (that was such a stretch it was a lie).

Those lies removed whatever very few doubts I had about supporting Obama. And to this day, she will never be a candidate that I can be as enthusiastic about because of those lies.

There seems to have been so much lying in politics, we've collectively become somewhat numb to it. But I haven't. It still bothers me.

And that's a key reason why I like Bernie so much. He's very straightforward and forthright. And he's been rock solid in his beliefs for years - not compromising his beliefs and pandering (a less obvious form of dishonesty).

Scarborough to Carson "You're lying ... admit it"

JOE SCARBOROUGH TO BEN CARSON: ‘YOU’RE LYING,’ ‘COME OUT FRONT AND YOU NEED TO ADMIT IT’
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/11/09/joe-scarborough-to-ben-carson-youre-lying-come-out-front-and-you-need-to-admit-it/

A little hypocrisy using this as I'm not a big fan of Scarborough.

This guy has issues

The thing is, a bunch of them lied at the last debate and the media didn't make that much of a collective fuss.

Get used to it: Trump will NOT apologize

He's narcissistic - kind of a sociopath

He's not apologizing to anyone because from his perch, we should bow down and thank God Trump exists, etc

I see Hannity is interviewing him tonight. He should be right at home: one racist chatting with another

Forgot when he went after the St. Regis Mohawks

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/01/nyregion/trumps-instinct-for-racially-charged-rhetoric-before-his-presidential-bid.html
“Are these the new neighbors we want?” (secret ad campaign he was fined and forced to apologize for)

Here's one of the offensive ads:
http://blog.pressrepublican.com/archive/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=638:casino_foe_has_ties_to_horse_races&catid=34:news-articles

MOHAWKS SCOFF AT TRUMP APOLOGY
http://nypost.com/2000/12/23/mohawks-scoff-at-trump-apology/

He's also gone after the Japanese and Chinese
http://www.vox.com/2015/8/3/9089495/donald-trump-racist

Trump Mocks Asians: Uses Broken English While Speaking About China & Japan
http://hollywoodlife.com/2015/08/28/donald-trump-mocks-asians-racist-broken-english/

Why ''The Apprentice'' is full of hot air. Mark Harris says it's time viewers got wise to the show's treatment of African-American contenders and Trumped-up fantasies
http://www.ew.com/article/2004/12/20/why-apprentice-full-hot-air

Of course, we can't forget all the disparaging remarks he's made against women ... arguably some hate there but I guess those are not "racist" ... but he looks down on them - they're not equal

If you're not a lily white male, then in Donald Trump's eyes, you're a second class citizen or worse. That's his 40 year old track record and legacy.

This man is not fit to be president.

Donald Trump Was Once Sued By Justice Department For Not Renting To Blacks

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/29/donald-trump-blacks-lawsuit_n_855553.html

It's been discussed here before
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x982155
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x663387
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027030440

I looked into that story back a few years ago. It has some merit.

Donald Trump Responds To Charges Of Racism (VIDEO)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/09/donald-trump-responds-to-_n_859392.html

Donald Trump Blames Crime On Blacks, Hispanics
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/05/donald-trump-blames-crime_n_3392535.html


More evidence beyond his recent rants about Mexicans being rapists, etc.

I regard his birther efforts as racist as well.

The guy has been a racist for a long, long time.

Interesting thread ...

I've never been supportive in an election of any Republican. I campaigned as a student for RFK. Supported MLK. Environment issues in the 60s. Won money for gays in college in a rights issue in the early '70s. Housing rights in '76, etc, etc, It's been a pretty long run. But now, I don't appear to fit in any more.

My favorite candidate by far for this primary is Bernie. I was a big Obama supporter, campaigned for him, still am a big supporter and going through that, I didn't care lots for Hillary - maybe left over some from when they competed against each other. I still don't. But if she wins, I'd take her over any Republican in a heartbeat - because of where she is on the issues compered to the GOP.

A month or so ago, before Bernie closed the gap some, I posted a comment something to the effect that I thought the gap was so large, it was going to be hard to overcome. Shortly afterwards, my posting privileges were revoked. No jury - never had one ever for my comments. I emailed to try to get an explanation for why but none came - my emails were ignored. I was dumbfounded .... and banned.

I guess, because I'm using my 1st amendment rights to point this out, I'll get banned again and this post deleted. Chalk up silencing one more supportive voice on a forum of all places to some bizarre version of "democracy!!"

But for those few who do get to read this, I can testify first hand from my own experience, the top post understates the issue. Through some odd sense of entitlement/intolerance, this site is taking out folks who are on your side at a time when you need all the help you can get. Those with so much in common and going in the same general direction should be able to get past their smaller differences and all be welcome to take a few more pulls on an oar.

I never even got to be a drama queen with "My panties are in a knot and I'm leaving" post anyway I fought for this stuff for 40-50+ years before DU.com showed up. I don't have to be a member here to continue to fight for what I believe in. It's weird when you have so much in common but I'm not losing any sleep over it.

Sincere good luck and all the best to you all.
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