March 30, 2023

Here's the indictment he plead guilty to:

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/20982370/indictment-final-unsigned.pdf

Here's AG James claim
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/tto_complaint.pdf

Beyond Zurich insurance, just a quick scan of AG James claim reveals other areas of criminal concern for Weisselberg:

Paragraph 56-57

56. Similarly, the engagement letters specifically obligated the Trump Organization to
provide Mazars with “access to all information of which you are aware [that] is relevant to the
preparation and fair presentation of the financial statement, such as records, documentation, and
other matters,” and made clear that Mr. Weisselberg, as the Trump Organization’s CFO, was
responsible for “the selection and application of accounting principles,” and for “establishing and
maintaining internal controls.” The engagement letters similarly obligated the Trump
Organization to “mak[e] all financial records and related information available to [Mazars] and
for the accuracy and completeness of that information.”

57. In addition to the engagement letters, for each year from 2011 to 2020, Mr.
Weisselberg as CFO of the Trump Organization signed a representation letter submitted by the
Trump Organization to Mazars in connection with Mazars’s actual issuance of the completed
Statement of Financial Condition. In the letter, Mr. Weisselberg represented that the Trump
Organization was “responsible for the information provided to Mazars for each annual
compilation,” and that the information was “presented fairly and accurately in all material
respects.”

Paragraph 61

61. As noted, Mr. Trump or the Trustees would prepare valuations and data for the
Statement, which Mazars (or for 2021, Whitley Penn) would then compile. Each year the Trump
Organization personnel (including Mr. Weisselberg and Mr. McConney) would prepare a
supporting data spreadsheet containing the valuations for the Statement and backup material
supporting those valuations. Mazars (or for 2021, Whitley Penn) then compiled that information
into financial-statement format.

Paragraph 212:

212. What is more, during the course of the 2019 valuation of Trump Tower, Mr.
Weisselberg systematically rejected numerous valuations that would have reached values
between $161 million and $224 million less than the prior year’s $732 million valuation.
Multiple draft valuations were prepared by the junior employee charged with preparing the
Statement using other, more recent Plaza District transactions with much higher capitalization
rates of 4.65% and higher--but Mr. Weisselberg systematically rejected all of those market data
points and decided to use a less recent, but much more favorable, 2.67% rate from the 666 Fifth
Avenue sale to push the value north of $800 million.

paragraph 320

320. For the years 2017 to 2021, the Trump Organization purported to use the
“stabilized net operating income” and claimed in supporting spreadsheets that the NOI figures to
derive the values for the properties came from audited financial statements. Those statements
were false and misleading. In reality, the Trump Organization, at the direction of Allen
Weisselberg, frequently used unaudited reports and then adjusted them to suit its own purposes
by adding millions of dollars in net operating income to the figures.

All look like they're within the statute of limitations for a NY felony.
Insurance Fraud, bank fraud and tax crimes.

No wonder he needs a criminal lawyer.
And therefore, he's very susceptible to being flipped.
Trump has some significant liability too ... if they can flip Weisselberg ..

March 30, 2023

Another note on this

Weisselberg gets out of Riker's on April 19, 2023
https://a073-ils-web.nyc.gov/inmatelookup/pages/home/home.jsf

The Daily Beast article:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-the-trump-org-suddenly-fired-its-jailed-money-man-allen-weisselbergs-lawyer
identifies Weisselberg's new lawyer as Seth L. Rosenberg and says “Mr. Weisselberg’s decision to change lawyers was entirely his own, a decision which I understand Mr. Weisselberg made in consultation with his family after the conclusion of the trial.”

Here's Seth's bio
https://www.martindale.com/attorney/seth-l-rosenberg-464028/

For more than twenty-five years Seth L. Rosenberg has specialized in defending white-collar criminal cases and litigating complex civil disputes.
...
At Clayman & Rosenberg LLP Seth has represented individuals and institutions in state and federal criminal investigations throughout the United States, and defended them against a wide range of charges including securities fraud, financial and health care fraud, embezzlement, money laundering, political integrity issues and many others. He also has appeared before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Election Commission and other regulatory bodies.

Let's recap for a second:
Wesseilberg, according to Riker's inmate records, gets out of jail on April 19, 2023
He's done with his 15 crimes that he pleaded guilty to.

So after that case and 15 convictions and after Trump org was nailed for financial crimes, why does Weisselberg still need a criminal lawyer specialized in white collar crime?

It's a rhetorical question.

He's still got a criminal problem hanging over him so those actions corroborate the media report that Bragg pressured him to flip.

March 30, 2023

I don't feel much different this morning

Bragg declined the Stormy case last year. And he declined aspects of the Trump investigation.
ex NY State prosecutor Pomerantz's book and interviews lay that out.

There were two key problems with the Stormy case according to Pomerantz.
1. It relied heavily on a felon convicted of lying - Cohen
2. It needed a related felony to lift the Stormy payoff misdemeanor to a felony. The only one that seemed plausible to pursue was a Federal campaign finance felony that would require a precedent to lift a state misdemeanor to a felony in conjunction with a federal felony as opposed to a state felony. There were Trump felonies at the state level alleged by AG James but they lacked witnesses needed to cut through the complex bookkeeping in court.

Something changed Bragg's mind.
Some wondered if it was Pomerantz's book. But the book didn't solve the issues with the case. If it did anything, it laid them out for all to see.

Weisselberg flipping solves both problems with the Stormy case.
1, He shores up Cohen as a witness (though they also have Pecker, Stormy's & McDougall's lawyer, Stormy & McDougall)
2. He helps the felonies AG James referred to Manhattan prosecutors at the state level so they don't need to achieve a precedent of tying to a federal FEC felony.

And Weisselberg obviously helps NY State prosecute Trump for his other financial crimes identified by AG James. And maybe helps the IRS who Trump confirmed were after him.

Something of substance changed. Weisselberg flipping explains all of it.

One other very notable pattern:
Before Michael Cohen and Cassidy Hutchinson flipped, they fired their lawyer being paid for by Trump - like Weisselberg did. (The media is behind on this. Weisselberg fired these lawyers a while ago. From Daily Beast article “Mr. Weisselberg’s decision to change lawyers was entirely his own, a decision which I understand Mr. Weisselberg made in consultation with his family after the conclusion of the trial.” Weisselberg pleaded guilty in August 2022)

Another notable pattern possibly broken:
Trump has been strangely quiet. They were posting about it on Truth Social last evening. Trump likes to get out in front of stories ... or kill them quickly .... I wondered about a crazy 2 am posting. But all I see and hear are crickets.

It is possible something else is happening with Weisselberg. If I had to bet on it, I'd bet that Weisselberg flipped.

March 30, 2023

I'm not convinced that is the whole story at all

First of all, it has been documented that AG Barr squashed many of the efforts to investigate Trump at SDNY. They fired Berman. Nothing was coming out of there while Trump was President. Who here thinks Trump would feel it was too illegal to scuttle or sabotage their evidence while his folks were in charge?

If Bragg's case was dead after Costello testified, why bring Pecker back two days ago for rebuttal of Costello?
Bragg wouldn't have bothered if the Stormy case was dead. Two days ago, the Stormy case was not dead.

For another reason: they allegedly determined Trump CFO Weisselberg lied to them since he was sentenced. They can go back at Weisselberg to flip him and appear to have been pressuring him as documented in a NYT article of Feb 2nd, 2023 (just after the Grand Jury reconvened for Stormy's case). Trump copmplained about them pressuring Weisselberg in March. Weisselberg can shore up Cohen's testimony big time. He signed some of those checks and did the bookkeeping. If Weisselberg gets caught lying, he goes to prison for a long time.

For another reason, the way they're talking about the case in the article in the top post isn't the only way it can be looked at:
https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/trump-write-hush-money-payments-article-1.3980656
To elevate the misdemeanor to a felony, instead of a FEC felony violation, they could get him on a state felony for tax evasion so they wouldn't need to make the precedent of trying to lift a state misdemeanor with a federal felony. If Trump expensed those Stormy payments, he might be liable for the state taxes he saved with those expenses. If it is more than $3,000 in taxes as it is likely to be with Stormy's and McDougals payments, that's a NY State felony. So Stormy's misdemeanor might be lifted to a felony with a state tax felony. The article in the top post did not mention that.

As well, who would want to rely on a federal conviction of Trump? Next time the GOP steal the White House, Trump will be pardoned.

And if they flipped Weisselberg, they've got AG Letitia James criminal referrals for insurance and bank fraud they can go after him for. I suspect that same Grand Jury met on those last Thursday and are meeting again this Thursday - they're not meeting on the Stormy case tomorrow but they're still meeting.

There was a bunch of evidence against Trump pulled together after Bragg took office. They criminally convicted Weisselberg & Trump org. They got Trump's tax returns. NY AG Letitia James filed her civil claims for $250 mil with the assistance of Bragg's office. And then AG James made her IRS and criminal referrals. All that had little to nothing to do with Stormy. It is more than merely plausible Bragg has been able to piece together a felony there that Stormy's expenses tie to.

Again, Bragg's career is on the line as is the safety of his family and co-workers. With all the above going on, it is very premature to count him out. In fact, in light of the above, it seem foolish to dismiss his efforts.