uawchild
uawchild's JournalPoll: Clinton holds a 6-point lead in Pa.; Senate race remains tight
A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 6-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters, who also expressed some concerns about potential violence as the tense and tumultuous election draws to a close.
The results are similar to a poll conducted two weeks earlier , indicating little to no shift in public opinion after the recent FBI announcement that it was reviewing a new set of emails linked to Clinton, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
The statewide survey — conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 4 with 405 likely Pennsylvania voters and with a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points — shows Clinton with support from 48 percent and Trump with the backing of 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
When third-party candidates are included, Clinton's lead narrows to 4 points. She drew 44 percent, with Trump at 40 percent, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html
Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction
"During the 2012 election, Republicans who hated the daily onslaught of polling showing that Mitt Romney was headed toward a comfortable defeat turned to Dean Chambers, the man who launched the website Unskewed Polls. The poll numbers were wrong, he said, and by tweaking a few things, he could give a more accurate count. His final projection had Romney winning close to all 50 states.
Chambers has wisely abandoned the field of election forecasting, and this year says he thinks the various models predicting a Hillary Clinton victory are probably accurate. The models themselves are pretty confident. HuffPost Pollster is giving Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning, and The New York Times’ model at The Upshot puts her chances at 85 percent.
There is one outlier, however, that is causing waves of panic among Democrats around the country, and injecting Trump backers with the hope that their guy might pull this thing off after all. Nate Silver’s 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.
He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, “Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton ― and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.”
So who’s right?"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
Poll: Clinton holds a 6-point lead in Pa.; Senate race remains tight
Source: The Morning Call
new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 6-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters, who also expressed some concerns about potential violence as the tense and tumultuous election draws to a close.
The results are similar to a poll conducted two weeks earlier , indicating little to no shift in public opinion after the recent FBI announcement that it was reviewing a new set of emails linked to Clinton, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
The statewide survey — conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 4 with 405 likely Pennsylvania voters and with a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points — shows Clinton with support from 48 percent and Trump with the backing of 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
When third-party candidates are included, Clinton's lead narrows to 4 points. She drew 44 percent, with Trump at 40 percent, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.
Read more: http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html
Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
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Muhlenberg College polling is rated A by 538 with a R+0.5 bias.
MAJORITY OF BLACK VOTERS BELIEVE VOTER ID LAWS WEAKEN VOTING POWER: POLL
Source: Newsweek
Half of African-American voters believe race relations in the U.S. have deteriorated within the past eight years, and more than 70 percent believe voter ID laws weaken black voting power, according to a new poll.
The poll, released on Friday by the African-American Research Collaborative, also found that half of black voters do not like either main presidential candidates, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump. Black voters also are significantly less enthusiastic about the 2016 election compared to the 2012 contest, which pitted incumbent U.S. President Barack Obama against Republican candidate Mitt Romney.
Published four days before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the poll surveyed 1,200 registered black voters: 300 nationally and 300 voters in each of the following states: Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Those states were chosen due to their large black voter-age populations. In total, African-Americans make up 13.3 percent of the national voting bloc.
Read more: http://www.newsweek.com/black-voters-2016-presidential-election-poll-517340
Not an election prediction, but still an interesting poll.
"Black voters also are significantly less enthusiastic about the 2016 election compared to the 2012 contest, which pitted incumbent U.S. President Barack Obama against Republican candidate Mitt Romney."
Well, duh. How many elections can you vote for the first African-American President? Just the past two, those had amazing historic black voter turnout for a very good reason.
Oh, sorry for the all-caps in the title, I just copy and paste titles from the original articles.
Specter of election day violence looms as Trump spurs vigilante poll watchers
Source: The Guardian - UK
Donald Trump’s claims of “large-scale” voter fraud have prompted officials across the political spectrum to warn about the dangers of vigilante poll monitors amid fears of confrontations or even violence on US election day.
As opinion polls tightened this week between Trump and Hillary Clinton ahead of Tuesday’s presidential vote, there are concerns of chaos following his claims, without serious evidence, that the election could be “rigged” and his refusal to say if he will accept the outcome.
Trump loyalists plan own exit poll amid claims of 'rigged' election
Read more
The Democrat party has launched a series of legal challenges around the country alleging voter intimidation, and on Friday in the battleground state of Ohio a judge issued a temporary restraining order against Trump’s campaign and his unofficial adviser Roger Stone. The ruling said anyone who engaged in intimidation or harassment inside or near Ohio polling places would face contempt of court charges.
Republican leaders in some battleground states are reporting a surge of volunteers signing up to serve as official poll watchers, and in an unprecedented move, the Trump campaign itself has since August been requesting that volunteers sign up as “election observers” to “Help Me Stop Crooked Hillary From Rigging This Election!”. Stone, meanwhile, has said he has helped recruit people to do “exit polls” to tackle voter fraud and denies .
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/05/election-day-violence-donald-trump-poll-watchers
This is madness and outright incitement of hate groups to harass voters.
From the article:
"The nation’s most prominent anti-government militia and a neo-Nazi group have also announced plans to send their members to monitor for voter fraud outside the polls."
Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout
Source: WMDT47 - ABC Affiliate
So far, Latino voting in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina is significantly up from 2012, according to Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups to receive detailed early vote return information this year. Catalist's voter list connects returned ballots with demographic and registration information, such as party registration, gender and age, and allows a closer look at who has already cast a vote.
In total, more than 30 million votes have been cast already across 38 states with early voting. And both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continue to urge their supporters to vote early as Election Day nears.
Latinos tend to vote more Democratic than the population as a whole. And in 2012, Latinos voted for President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 71% to 27%, according to an analysis of exit polls by the Pew Hispanic Center.
Read more: http://www.wmdt.com/news/politics-elections/early-voting-data-in-3-key-states-show-spike-in-latino-turnout/42380532
Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
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"Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups to receive detailed early vote return information this year."
It's not rated by 538 because I think that means its not a pollster per se. Not sure.
Election Update: National Polls Show Clinton’s Lead Stabilizing — State Polls, Not So Much
Source: FiveThirtyEight
We’re a couple of days removed from the point when almost every poll showed Hillary Clinton on a downward trajectory. Instead, polls over the past 24 hours have been more equivocal. National polls tend to suggest that Donald Trump’s momentum has halted, and that Clinton may even be regaining ground. But Trump is getting his share of good results in state polls, which both show competitive races in some of Clinton’s “firewall” states and favorable trend lines for Trump.
Starting with those national polls: Clinton has regained ground over the past couple days in the national tracking polls conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post, The New Orleans Times-Picayune and the Los Angeles Times (although the LA Times poll continues to show Trump ahead, as it usually does). There aren’t really any national tracking polls that are still moving toward Trump at the moment, in fact, although some — like the IBD/TIPP tracking poll — show a steady race. We’re notably lacking in the major, one-off national polls conducted by news organizations such as CNN or NBC News. Those should begin to be released over the weekend, and they’ll have a lot of influence on the forecast. For the time being, however, the impression conveyed by the national polls is of a race in which Clinton bottomed out a few days ago — perhaps after the FBI news last Friday — and has now begun to recover.
But those state polls? Not a lot of good news for Clinton. There’s more data showing a tied race in New Hampshire. And Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to about 3 percentage points in our forecast. Polls in Michigan have also been tightening, with an unusually large number of undecided voters. Polling in New Mexico has been tight enough that we’re now considering it a “state to watch,” although that may reflect an abundance of caution. Clinton’s numbers have held up better in Wisconsin and Virginia, while the data has been very mixed in Colorado.
Just so you think I’m not cherry-picking, here’s every swing state poll we’ve added since our last Election Update at 7 p.m. last night. It includes the latest state-by-state tracking polls from SurveyMonkey, Ipsos and Pulse Opinion Research.
Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-national-polls-show-clintons-lead-stabilizing-state-polls-not-so-much/
"Just so you think I’m not cherry-picking, here’s every swing state poll we’ve added since our last Election Update at 7 p.m. last night. It includes the latest state-by-state tracking polls from SurveyMonkey, Ipsos and Pulse Opinion Research."
Even 538 worries about false accusations of "cherry picking".
Poll shows Clinton winning Colorado
Source: 9News - NBC affiliate
In contrast with a poll Wednesday that showed Colorado as a tie in the Presidential race, a new poll Thursday finds that Democrat Hillary Clinton is winning the state with a six-point lead over Republican Donald Trump.
The survey comes from Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling shop, and shows Clinton leading 44-38. Voters were also given the names of the Libertarian and Green party candidates.
The survey sample size is similar to the University of Denver poll released Wednesday, which showed a 39-39 tie between Trump and Clinton in a 4-way race.
However, the sample in the Magellan poll had some differences in demographics. The DU poll, conducted by Floyd Ciruli (a 9NEWS political analyst,) captured a larger share of conservatives and had 9 percent of respondents identifying as Hispanic. The Magellan poll had 15 percent of its sample identify as Hispanic.
The Magellan figure is closer to the 14.5 percent of the state’s voting-eligible population that is Hispanic, according to research from the Pew Center.
Read more: http://www.9news.com/news/local/politics/poll-shows-clinton-winning-colorado/347260539
Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
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Magellan Strategies polling is rate C by 538 with a R+0.6 bias
"However, the sample in the Magellan poll had some differences in demographics." --- once again its all about the Likely Voter Model any poll chooses to use. Different projected voter models gave different results.
This Is the Bleakest Poll of the 2016 Election
Source: Mother Jones
Throughout the election season, Hillary Clinton has used Donald Trump's record of belittling and rating women based on their physical appearances as evidence that the Republican nominee is a bad role model and unfit to be president of the United States. "Our children are watching," one Clinton ad from July suggested. Another in September featured young women looking in the mirror, while Trump's own words disparaging women played in the background.
A new poll from the Upshot published on Friday appears to confirm Clinton's stark warnings, with nearly half of the teenage girls polled saying that Trump's disparaging remarks have had a negative effect on the way they view their bodies.
"That hits me hard when people like Trump say people who are skinnier than I am are too big," 15-year-old Morgan Lesh told the Times. "It makes me feel extremely insecure about myself."
"Especially for girls in high school rating girls on a scale of 1 to 10 does not help because it really does get into your head that they think I'm ugly or I don't look good," 14-year-old Jordan Barrett said.
The survey's results align with other anecdotes showing Trump's inflammatory remarks resonating with children.
Read more: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/donald-trump-teenage-girls-body-appearances-effect
Thanks, tRump. Destroy more young lives why don't you.
Final Roanoke College Poll: Hillary Clinton hurt by email probe, holds 7-point lead in Virginia
Source: Roanoke Times
Hillary Clinton possesses a 7-point lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, according to the latest Roanoke College Poll released Friday.
While the Democratic presidential nominee remains the front-runner in the state, her polling numbers took a hit from FBI Director James Comey's decision to reopen the probe into Clinton's emails.
Prior to Comey's announcement, Clinton held an 18-point over Trump, according to the Roanoke College poll. Now, she holds a 9-point lead in a head-to-head match-up with Trump and a 7-point lead when the independent, Libertarian and Green Party candidates are factored in.
The reopened email investigation did impact some voters' decisions, according to the poll.
About 7 percent of respondents voting for other candidates said the FBI's renewed interest in Clinton's emails caused them to switch their support. About 10 percent of undecided voters polled said the renewed probe caused them to shift from supporting Clinton to undecided.
Read more: http://www.roanoke.com/news/politics/final-roanoke-college-poll-hillary-clinton-hurt-by-email-probe/article_11060764-3335-57d5-af6b-5e7dcfc7853b.html
Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
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Roanoke College polling is rated C+ by 538 and has a R+0.3 bias.
Thanks to the DU-er that gave a better link for this poll, allowing me to replace the rightwing Washington Times one.
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