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uawchild

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Member since: Wed Oct 7, 2015, 08:51 AM
Number of posts: 2,208

Journal Archives

Final Roanoke College Poll: Hillary Clinton hurt by email probe, holds 7-point lead in Virginia

Source: Roanoke Times

Hillary Clinton possesses a 7-point lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, according to the latest Roanoke College Poll released Friday.

While the Democratic presidential nominee remains the front-runner in the state, her polling numbers took a hit from FBI Director James Comey's decision to reopen the probe into Clinton's emails.

Prior to Comey's announcement, Clinton held an 18-point over Trump, according to the Roanoke College poll. Now, she holds a 9-point lead in a head-to-head match-up with Trump and a 7-point lead when the independent, Libertarian and Green Party candidates are factored in.
The reopened email investigation did impact some voters' decisions, according to the poll.

About 7 percent of respondents voting for other candidates said the FBI's renewed interest in Clinton's emails caused them to switch their support. About 10 percent of undecided voters polled said the renewed probe caused them to shift from supporting Clinton to undecided.

Read more: http://www.roanoke.com/news/politics/final-roanoke-college-poll-hillary-clinton-hurt-by-email-probe/article_11060764-3335-57d5-af6b-5e7dcfc7853b.html



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
===================================

Roanoke College polling is rated C+ by 538 and has a R+0.3 bias.

Thanks to the DU-er that gave a better link for this poll, allowing me to replace the rightwing Washington Times one.

Poll: Clinton Loses Edge in N.H., Is Tied With Trump

Source: UMass - Lowell

With less than a week to Election Day, the race for president in New Hampshire is tied, the contest for U.S. Senate is too close to call and a slight lead has emerged in the run for governor, according to a new UMass Lowell/7News poll released today.

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are in a dead heat with 44 percent among likely voters in the new poll, which was conducted entirely after last week’s revelation by FBI Director James Comey that new materials are being reviewed in connection with the investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 5 percent among likely voters and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2 percent, with 4 percent of likely voters still undecided.

The tie between Clinton and Trump is in contrast to the UMass Lowell/7News poll conducted in mid-October, which found Clinton had a six-point lead in the four-way race. Since then, Clinton has dropped only one percentage point, but Trump has gained five and appears to be drawing stronger support from Republicans (up four points to 81 percent).

The independent, nonpartisan poll by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion surveyed 901 New Hampshire registered voters and 695 likely voters via live telephone (landline and cellphone) interviews between Oct. 28 and Nov. 2. New Hampshire is home to approximately 10,000 UMass Lowell graduates, 2,000 students and 400 employees.

Read more: https://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2016/NH-poll-11032016.aspx



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
===================================

UMass-Lowell polling is rated B by 538 and has a R+0.1 bias

A side comment, I post these polls as they come in, the other day a bad string of polls came in for Hillary and I was castigated for posting them. Yesterday and this morning polls favorable for her came in and everyone seemed happy, no one impugned my motives. I hope as I post the inevitable, and hopefully FEW, polls that are positive for trump that those early detractors don't resume their personal attacks on my motives or integrity. Thank you.

Hint of Momentum for Clinton, With Issues a Defining Factor (POLL)

Source: ABC News

A hint of momentum for Hillary Clinton has produced a 3-point race in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll results, with wide leads for the Democrat in trust to handle the economy and health care among likely voters focused on those two issues.

Donald Trump pushes back with a clear lead on dealing with corruption in government and immigration among those who cite either of these as their top issue. The candidates are evenly matched on another key concern, trust to handle terrorism and national security.

The poll finds a 47-44 percent race between Clinton and Trump in a four-day average among likely voters, vs. Trump’s best result, 45-46 percent, three days ago. While the shift is not statistically significant, two of the last three nights -– moving away from news of the FBI’s renewed email investigation -– have been Clinton’s best since the early days of tracking.


Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hint-momentum-clinton-issues-defining-factor-poll/story?id=43281152



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
===================================

ABC News/Washington Post polling has a rating of A+ from 538 and a D+0.6 bias.

Voters Express Disgust Over U.S. Politics in New Times/CBS Poll

Source: NY Times

An overwhelming majority of voters are disgusted by the state of American politics, and many harbor doubts that either major-party nominee can unite the country after a historically ugly presidential campaign, according to the final pre-election New York Times/CBS News Poll.

In a grim preview of the discontent that may cloud at least the outset of the next president’s term, Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump are seen by a majority of voters as unlikely to bring the country back together after this bitter election season.

With more than eight in 10 voters saying the campaign has left them repulsed rather than excited, the rising toxicity threatens the ultimate victor. Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic candidate, and Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee, are seen as dishonest and viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters.

While her advantage has narrowed since mid-October, Mrs. Clinton still has an edge in the survey because of a commanding advantage among women and nonwhite voters. She has the support of 45 percent of likely voters while Mr. Trump has 42 percent. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, has slipped to 5 percent, and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, is at 4 percent.

If she wins, Mrs. Clinton will enter the White House to face immediate governing challenges not only from the deep partisanship ruling Washington but also from a large number of Mr. Trump’s supporters who say they are not prepared to accept the results.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=0



"If she wins, Mrs. Clinton will enter the White House to face immediate governing challenges not only from the deep partisanship ruling Washington but also from a large number of Mr. Trump’s supporters who say they are not prepared to accept the results."

To those Trump supporters not prepared to accept the results -- too damn bad for you.

Get used to the idea of President Hillary Clinton.

Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide

Source: Politico

Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump by an historic 30-point margin among Florida Hispanics, according to a new bipartisan poll that indicates Latinos could play an outsized role in delivering the White House to a Democrat for the third election in a row.

Clinton’s 60-30 percent advantage over Trump with Florida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71-19 percent, according to the survey of 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International.
Story Continued Below

Trump, meanwhile, has relatively weak backing from Cuban Americans. They historically vote Republican but only support him over Clinton by 49-42 percent, the poll shows. And Hispanic voters of other national origins heavily prefer Clinton over Trump by 71-20 percent. The overall error margin for the poll is 3.5 points.

“These Florida numbers are not only ominous for Donald Trump — they’re downright terrifying for Republicans nationwide,” said Fernand Amandi, Bendixen & Amandi’s pollster, who called Clinton’s 30-point margin “historic.”



Read more: http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/11/clintons-30-point-lead-in-fla-hispanic-poll-is-terrifying-to-gop-nationwide-107067



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
===================================

If you are in Florida and wish to get involved with Get Out the Vote efforts to turn it blue on election night, one starting point would be the Florida Democrats website:

http://www.floridadems.org/get-involved

New polls show Trump's lead growing in Texas

Source: Dallas News

A pair of polls released Thursday indicated that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has expanded his lead in Texas with just five days to go.

A joint poll from NBC News, The Wall Street Journal and Marist College put Trump up over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in Texas. Libertarian Gary Johnson garnered 6 percent in the poll, and 2 percent of respondents said they are voting for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Trump’s lead shrank to four points among the larger universe of registered voters in Texas, at 45 percent to 41 percent. But pollsters tend to attribute more precision to the likely voter tally, which takes into consideration whether the respondents say they are planning to vote or have in past elections.

Among those likely voters, 54 percent said they have already cast their ballots in early voting, and Trump led that group by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent.


Read more: http://www.dallasnews.com/news/2016-presidential-election/2016/11/03/new-polls-show-trumps-lead-growing-texas



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
===================================

Info on the two Pollsters:

Emerson College is rated B by 538 with a R+1.3 bias.

Marist College is rated A by 538 with a R+0.7 bias.


If you are in Texas and wish to get involved with Get Out the Vote efforts to turn Texas blue, one starting point would be the Texas Democrats website:

http://act.txdemocrats.org/page/s/volunteer

There's information there on volunteering and how to get involved and how to contact people for more information!

Would DU-ers in Texas be able to provide any additional information on how to get involved locally? Thanks.

Poll: Clinton holds whopping lead over Trump with Hispanics

Source: Politico

ven as Donald Trump has narrowed Hillary Clinton’s overall lead in the polls in recent weeks, the former secretary of state has maintained a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, according to a Washington Post/Univision poll released Thursday.

Sixty-seven percent of Hispanic likely voters who responded to the nationwide poll said they support Clinton, while just 19 percent favor Trump. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, polled at 4 percent, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein came in at 2 percent.
Story Continued Below

Trump has struggled to connect with Latino voters from Day One of his presidential campaign, labeling undocumented Mexican immigrants as rapists, drug dealers and criminals at his Trump Tower launch event. The Republican nominee has pledged to build a wall along America’s southern border with Mexico and to deport all undocumented immigrants. Neither proposal has endeared him to the Hispanic community.

Just 20 percent of respondents said they held either a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of Trump, compared with 69 percent who said the same of Clinton, the Democratic nominee. Twenty-eight percent said they view Clinton very or somewhat unfavorably, while 76 percent hold those views of Trump. Seventy-three percent of respondents said they believe Trump is racist.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/poll-clinton-trump-hispanics-230702



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
===================================

What a surprising result. Not. lol

New Poll Finds Close Race in Georgia

Source: Politico

New NBC News-Wall Street Journal polling has Donald Trump running just 1 percentage point ahead of Hillary Clinton among likely voters in Georgia, though he leads her by 5 points in Arizona and 9 points in Texas.

In a four-way race in Arizona, Trump, the Republican nominee, garnered the support of 45 percent of surveyed likely voters, while Clinton, a Democrat, received 40 percent. Nine percent of those surveyed said they support Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent preferred the Green Party’s Jill Stein.

The survey in Arizona, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points and had a sample of 719. It suggests that Trump is holding onto his lead in the traditionally red state that Clinton is courting aggressively.

The result in Georgia, released on Thursday along with surveys in Arizona and Texas, was closer despite the Clinton campaign having focused much less on flipping the state. Trump led Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent among likely voters surveyed there, while Johnson came in at 8 percent.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-arizona-texas-poll-230713



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
===================================

If you are in Georgia and wish to get involved with Get Out the Vote efforts to turn Georgia blue, one starting point would be the Georgia Democrats website:

http://www.georgiademocrat.org

There's information there on volunteering and how to get involved and how to contact people for more information!

Would DU-ers in Georgia be able to provide any additional information on how to get involved locally? Thanks.

N.H. poll shows Trump, Clinton tied; Ayotte slightly ahead

Source: Boston Globe

With just five days before the presidential election, a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll in the swing state of New Hampshire suggests Clinton no longer has a lock on the Granite State and is tied with Donald Trump, who has the momentum in the closing days of the contest.


The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, finds Clinton and Trump tied at 42 percent each. It also shows incumbent Republican US Senator Kelly Ayotte leading her Democratic opponent, Governor Maggie Hassan, by 2 points.

“Clinton has clearly had a rough patch, but what we simply don’t know about this swing for Trump is if we are halfway through it or if it is peaking and about to come back the other way for Clinton with a critical weekend ahead of us,” said David Paleologos of the director of the Suffolk poll.

Read more: http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/11/03/poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-ayotte-slightly-ahead/XdKxyDKnSLdUJspGUkP0EJ/story.html



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google (set on the NEWS category) and posting new polls that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News.

Nothing is being "cherry picked", so if any poll results are unsettling please don't shoot the messenger. Yesterday I was the victim of a semi-witchhunt for doing this.

Why do this? First, because it IS late breaking news. Second, to fight any complacency if polls actually ARE tightening. Third, as a protest against those that would try to censor or intimidate people into not posting topics that they just don't like. This IS Democratic Underground, posting from reputable sources should not be censored. Thank you.
=====================================


Suffolk University Polling is rated B+ by 538 and has a D+0.7 bias.

Poll: Trump leads Clinton by 6 points in Utah as McMullin gains support

Source: Politico

Donald Trump continues to hold onto a lead among likely voters in the traditionally deep-red state of Utah, according to a new Monmouth University poll, but he is ahead of Hillary Clinton by only 6 points as almost a quarter of voters flock to independent candidate Evan McMullin.
Among 402 likely voters in the state surveyed from Oct. 30 through Nov. 2, 37 percent said they support Trump, while 31 percent said they support Clinton.

Twenty-four percent back McMullin, a conservative who is running a campaign focused on Utah, where he was born. The state's large Mormon population has proved resistant to Trump’s candidacy, particularly after a damaging 2005 tape surfaced last month showing the billionaire bragging about sexual assault. McMullin gained support in the state after Monmouth’s last survey, in October, when he registered at 20 percent.

Four percent of voters surveyed said they support Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 1 percent indicated support for the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/poll-trump-clinton-utah-230694



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google (set on the NEWS category) and posting new polls that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News.

Nothing is being "cherry picked", so if any poll results are unsettling please don't shoot the messenger. Yesterday I was the victim of a semi-witchhunt for doing this.

Why do this? First, because it IS late breaking news. Second, to fight any complacency if polls actually ARE tightening. Third, as a protest against those that would try to censor or intimidate people into not posting topics that they just don't like. This IS Democratic Underground, posting from reputable sources should not be censored. Thank you.
===============================================

Monmouth University Polling is rated A+ by 538 and has a bias of D+0.6

That all said, Hillary is within 6 points in Utah in this poll that has a margin of error of 4.9 points. That's in UTAH!
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