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Member since: Wed Oct 7, 2015, 08:51 AM
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CBS poll shows Clinton with 4-point lead vs Trump in White House race

A CBS News poll released on Monday showed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holding a 4-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, 45 percent to 41 percent.

The survey of 1,753 U.S. adults was taken Nov. 2-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

A Washington Post/ABC poll released earlier on Monday also found Clinton with a 4 percentage point lead. A separate Bloomberg Politics-Selzer & Co poll found a 3 point lead for the former secretary of state.


This morning all the major polls show Hillary maintaining a nice lead of 3 points, or, like this on, increasing that to 4 points.

I don't think its statistical noise, I think she is continuing to trend upwards. We will see tomorrow. - fingers crossed -

What does the FBI’s latest turnabout mean for election polls? Hint: We know even less than we did be

What does the FBI’s latest turnabout mean for election polls? Hint: We know even less than we did before

Now that FBI Director James Comey has announced, after reviewing the newly discovered emails from the Anthony Weiner investigation, that he’s sticking with his initial recommendation that Hillary Clinton should not face criminal charges, an obvious question remains: Does this come too late to offset the damage caused by Comey’s earlier letter to Congress a little more than a week ago?

The short answer is that we have no way of knowing until after the votes have been counted (and maybe not even then). The long answer is that the level of uncertainty is now so high Election Day 2016 will be even more chaotic than was already destined to be the case.

As statistician Nate Silver explained shortly after Comey’s announcement on Sunday evening, “Any change will really come too late to be picked up upon by most polls.” Indeed, the polls didn’t even begin to reflect Comey’s Oct. 28 letter to Congress until a couple days after tha. Because Clinton had already started to decline from her post-debate polling high, it took a few more days for pollsters to discern whether the decline accelerated because of Comey’s announcement (which it did). This time there won’t even be a full 48 hours between the dropping of another bombshell and the moment polls open on Election Day. Because Clinton’s numbers had already started to stabilize before Sunday, we may never know whether any improvement between her poll numbers and the election results was influenced by Comey’s weekend turnabout.


We may never know the impact for "SURE" since her polls were trending positive before Sunday's announcement, but I know, I just know, there will definitely be a positive impact for Hillary, news spreads so fast these days. People are very tuned in.

I think it will help immensely where it matters most, in those tight battleground states.

CNU Poll: Clinton leads in Virginia ahead of Election Day

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads by six points among likely voters in Virginia ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, according to a new poll from the Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Public Policy.

Clinton leads GOP rival Donald Trump 48-42 in a full five-candidate ballot in CNU’s poll, which was released Monday morning.

Trump had closed Clinton’s once commanding 15-point lead in the previous CNU polling, but that margin appears to have held steady in the past few weeks.



Great news: "margin appears to have held steady in the past few weeks." A 6 point win is a blow out in Virginia. Glad it stayed so strongly blue.

Poll Finds Nearly Half of Women Say They've Experienced Unwanted Physical Advances

Groping is real.

When writer Kelly Oxford asked women to tweet her their “first assaults,” she says more than a million replies came in over the course of a single evening. Two days later, nearly 27 million people had tweeted or visited her Twitter page. While some observers were surprised by the speed and volume of the response, it seems they should not have been.

In a new poll conducted by Morning Consult, 45% of female respondents said they have experienced unwanted physical conduct or touching of a sexual nature. In addition, more than half of the women who took the survey said they’ve been the recipient of unwelcome sexually-charged jokes (60%), been present when comments of a sexual nature were made about another woman (59%), and been catcalled (56%).


THIS alone should spell the end for tRump.

In final Colorado push, Trump urges supporters to hand-deliver ballots

Source: USA Today

DENVER – Continuing his barnstorming tour of the country, Donald Trump rallied supporters in this swing state Saturday night, urging them to hand-deliver their ballots and promising to immediately repeal Obamacare.

Colorado will play a key role in the election days away. Trump and running mate Mike Pence have repeatedly visited, as has Hillary Clinton, her daughter Chelsea and, on Friday, former President Bill Clinton.

“We had 17. We have one left,” Trump said, referring to primary contenders. “I have one left before we make this country great again.”

Hours earlier, Trump was rushed off the stage at a rally in Reno, Nev., after a disturbance broke out in the crowd nearby as he spoke. Trump resumed his speech, saying "nobody said it was going to be easy for us, but we will never be stopped."

Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/06/denver-colorado-rally-trump-urges-supporters-hand-deliver-ballots/93385754/


The "disturbance" was just a white middle-aged man, who btw is a registered Republican, trying to hold up a sign that said "Republicans against Trump".

And this "hand deliver ballots" bullshit is just him casting dispersions on the integrity of our elections. He just keeps trying to fire up the conspiracy nuts and the hate groups.

I really hope his thinly veiled incitement of violence doesn't get someone hurt.

Trump inspires conspiracists in his camp, ramps up distrust

from The Guardian - UK:

"Rigged election, biased media — Donald Trump regularly condemns alleged tactics aimed at derailing his bid for the White House, rhetoric that resonates with some supporters who are growing more mistrustful.

The Republican presidential nominee has offered no concrete proof to back up his allegations but, to differing degrees, many in his camp believe them.

A prime target is the media, which Trump accuses of not covering his campaign objectively, while favoring his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the November 8 election. He says the media even launches unfounded attacks against him."



Poor poor Donald...

He's the real victim. Right.

Final poll: Clinton leads Trump by 3 as voters lock in

"The last POLITICO/Morning Consult horse-race poll before Election Day finds undecided voters making up their minds as Nov. 8 approaches.

Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in the closing days of the presidential race, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows.

Forty-five percent of likely voters support Clinton, while 42 percent would vote for Trump, according to the poll, which was conducted by Morning Consult on Friday and Saturday.

Despite a topsy-turvy, nearly-two-year-long campaign, the election is ending on a note of stability: Clinton’s 3-point margin over Trump is identical to last week’s POLITICO/Morning Consult survey, though both candidates’ vote shares have risen as undecided voters have made their choice.

“While our final poll before the election shows a tight race, Clinton has maintained her small lead in our polling for weeks now," said Morning Consult Co-Founder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp. "There is little that could swing voters now in the final hours leading up to Election Day.”

But there remains a source of uncertainty in the eventual outcome: A combined 12 percent of likely voters say they will cast their ballots for Libertarian Gary Johnson (8 percent) or Green Party nominee Jill Stein (4 percent), neither of whom is likely to win a single state."



In past presidential races, excluding the landslides of course, a 51.5% over a 48.5 number would be called a solid win, not a tight race.

Thank you, Media. They just won't give up trying to make this seem more of a "horse race" than it really is.

Clinton looks to reinforce Michigan as internal polls tighten

(CNN)Hillary Clinton's campaign, in the waning days of the election, has turned its focus to Michigan, a state that months ago was considered safely in the Democratic nominee's column.

Clinton will make her second visit to Michigan in four days when she campaigns in Grand Rapids on Monday, the day before the election. Clinton has so far only spent four days campaigning in Michigan since the Democratic National Convention in July, a number that pales in comparison to the 13 days she has spent in Florida and the 10 days in Ohio.

President Barack Obama will also campaign in Ann Arbor -- home to the University of Michigan -- on Monday, looking to boost millennial voters the day before Election Day.

The trips reflect a growing concern that Michigan could land in Donald Trump's column on Tuesday.
"The numbers there have tightened," Robby Mook, Clinton's campaign manager, said Saturday, adding later that the tightening has been seen throughout the Midwest.

"We're taking that seriously," he said.

A recently released Detroit Free Press poll found that Clinton is up 4 points in Michigan, 42% to Trump's 38%.
Clinton's campaign has leaned heavily on its ground game to turn out voters early in key swing states, trying to "bank" votes before Election Day. The campaign has particularly seen early voting gains in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. Some aides are quietly confident that, given the turnout figures in Nevada so far, the state could already be in Clinton's column.
Most voters in Michigan, though, cast their ballots on Election Day, adding a level of volatility to the state that worries Clinton aides.


Black apathy key to Trump's poll success

This is from the Telegraph in Calcutta, India. The writer has a very startling personal impression of Washington, DC that I felt compelled to share it. Pardon the quoted length, he rambled some but made some provocative points through out.

"A few metro rides through downtown Washington and the suburbs of America's national capital are enough to grasp why Donald Trump, the unlikeliest of presidential candidates, now stands a heartbeat away from occupying the White House.

In all the years when suburban Washington was my home and metro rides were my preferred means of commute, I have not seen beggars in the metro system like, say, in Mumbai's local trains. At the height of winters, homeless African Americans buy a metro ticket and spend the entire day on heated trains to shelter themselves from sleet and icy winds. But beggars, no!

These days, however, beggars on the capital's metro trains are not an uncommon sight. Among these beggars are a sprinkling of deprived white Americans with their arms outstretched for any handouts.

"When I first arrived in Washington to make it my home, U Street was considered dangerous although it was once the fountainhead of America's black culture: the jazz legend Duke Ellington was born there. In those years, any place lower than 14th Street even in the well-to-do north west of Washington was considered unsafe.

Today, all these areas of the city have been gentrified. U Street will soon be home to the Indian embassy's swanky new cultural centre being built to reflect the present heady heights of Indo-US friendship, often described as a "natural alliance". U Street no longer sleeps, at any rate, on weekends.

Yesterday I took a walk along 14th Street towards U Street and beyond. Many black residents have left because they can no longer afford to live there. Farther in the city's southeast and northeast, which were once entirely black, homes are now increasingly owned by white people.

African Americans who made way for gentrification have not just moved out of the city, they have gone to towns in neighbouring Maryland state, as far away as Hancock near the border with Pennsylvania or Hagerstown in the state's far away Washington county.

If the turnout of black voters next Tuesday is low, as expected, it may well propel Republican Trump into the White House. An enthusiasm deficit for Democrat Hillary Clinton would be a reflection of how black Americans are disappointed by one of their own: America's first black President Barack Obama.

What startled me was the profusion of beggars along 14th Street. Washington has always had a smattering of beggars, almost entirely African Americans. They usually sat outside metro stations. They were permanently there and they had regular benefactors.

Both sides engaged in banter and these beggars never sent anyone into bouts of depression the way child beggars or maimed men and women at traffic stops in New Delhi do.

Not any more. There is hopelessness writ large on faces of today's beggars in the capital of the most powerful nation on earth. Such hopelessness may turn into apathy on voting day and help Trump. These black men and women wallowing in misery have no cellphones and are not covered by opinion polls."


Woah. I take issue with this comment:

"An enthusiasm deficit for Democrat Hillary Clinton would be a reflection of how black Americans are disappointed by one of their own: America's first black President Barack Obama."

No, I disagree. How could there not be a drop in enthusiasm for African-Americans after voting in two elections for the first black President? Sorry, but any drop in turnout is very natural now that the President Obama is not on the ballot -- its not a negative reflection on him or Hillary.

National poll finds Clinton, Trump virtually deadlocked

Another national survey shows a near-even race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the final weekend before Election Day.

The former secretary of state has 44% of support among likely voters in a McClatchy-Marist poll released Saturday while the businessman has 43%, within the poll's margin of error.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 6% of the vote while Green Party nominee Jill Stein garners 2%.

"Although Clinton and Trump are separated by the slimmest of margins, the Electoral College can present a very different picture," said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Close popular votes can, but do not necessarily, translate into tight battles for 270 electoral votes."

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