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PoliticalMalcontent

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Member since: Fri Oct 30, 2015, 06:27 PM
Number of posts: 449

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Who should pick presidents? Party leadership or the people?

There has been a bit of contention with how Democratic leadership has fallen in line behind Hillary Clinton while shutting out Bernie Sanders on the democratic side.

On the Republican side party brokers are trying their best to make sure that Donald Trump is NOT the face of the party for years to come. Donald Trump has responded by threatening to run as an independent. Interestingly, Ben Carson has also blasted the RNC, threatening to leave the party.

The DNC and RNC are entirely different, yet their struggles are similar. Both Parties have their preferred candidates. Jeb Bush was supposed to be the guy. The people rebuked the party offer and went with Trump and Carson. The Republican party is now scrambling to prop up their next best choice.

Over on the DNC side Clinton has been protected via a lack of debates. Compare 2008 to 2016. In 2008 the Democrats had 26 scheduled debates. In 2016 the DNC scheduled ... Six? SIX lousy debates? You've got to be shitting me. And most of those debates are scheduled on days meant to leep viewership down (Saturdays, around holidays, against both football and baseball playoffs).

So the DNC clearly has their candidate and the RNC is working on finding an emergency candidate.

Shouldn't people be given as many opportunities as possible to learn about their candidates though? This is basically an interview process for possibly the most important job in the world. I find it shameful that so many party leaders were willing to make an endorsement before the 'interview process' of debates ever began. It undermines democracy when the party picks their candidate before the race has even started and frankly it makes me question their motives (backdoor deals, etc).

So... Who should pick presidents? Party leadership or the general voting public?
Posted by PoliticalMalcontent | Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:12 PM (45 replies)

Demographics data from Public Policy Polling's New Hampshire survey (Dec 3rd)

There was a trove of data beyond "Who would you vote for?" from that PPP survey posted on Dec. 3rd for New Hampshire.

Data can be found here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_120315.pdf

Methodology per PPP:

"Public Policy Polling surveyed 458 Democratic primary voters and 454 Republican primary
voters from November 30th to December 2nd. The margin of error for both parties is +/-4.6%.
80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have
landlines conducted the survey over the internet."


Final tally among likely New Hampshire democratic primary voters:

Clinton - 44%
Sanders - 42%
O'Malley - 8%
Undecided - 7%

We've already seen this poll though. Let's dig deeper! (My apologies to O'Malley supporters. I'm going to focus my energies on Clinton and Sanders for the rest of this post as there's just too much data to work with.)

---

Clinton Net Favorability among democratic primary voters by gender

Male: +45 (9% not sure)
Female: +48 (10% not sure)
Combined: +46% (9% not sure)

Sanders Net Favorability among democratic primary voters by gender

Male: +68 (8% not sure)
Female: +63 (11% not sure)
Combined: +66 (10% not sure)

---

Clinton Net Favorability among democratic primary voters by age

18-45: +31 (9% not sure)
46-65: +49 (11% not sure)
Older than 65: +64 (6% not sure)


Sanders Net Favorability among democratic primary voters by age

18-45: +57 (12% not sure)
46-65: +69 (10% not sure)
Older than 65: 72% (6% not sure)

---

Clinton Net Favorability by party affiliation

Democrat: +58 (6% not sure)
Republican: -34 (0% not sure)
Independent: +25 (25% not sure)

Sanders Net Favorability by party affiliation

Democrat: +76 (8% not sure)
Republican: -54 (14% not sure)
Independent: +51 (12% not sure)

---

Again, this is a fairly small sample size and only applies to New Hampshire. Still, it's a bit of food for thought. All of the data from my post plus some other gems can be located in in the last 10 or so pages of the link provided above (or here for those to lazy to scroll up!).

Let's open this up for discussion.
Posted by PoliticalMalcontent | Sat Dec 5, 2015, 01:32 AM (3 replies)

Trump and Xenophobia

I've been doing some writing on Public Policy Polling's recent New Hampshire survey and while that post isn't ready yet I was shocked and fascinated by some of the data on Trump.

Here's an excerpt from Public Policy Polling (Specifically page 2): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_120315.pdf

58% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey celebrated the attacks of
9/11 to only 12% who don't think that happened. This is despite only 30% of Republican
voters overall believing that to 39% who don't.

53% of Trump supporters are in favor of a national database of Muslims, to only 22%
opposed to that concept. This is despite only 29% of Republicans overall supporting the
idea to 44% who are against it. In fact supporters of all 13 of the other candidates are
against this concept.

49% of Trump supporters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only
18% against that idea. Overall only 25% of Republicans support doing that to 44% who
oppose it. Again on this issue supporters of every single candidate other than Trump are
against it.

Additionally we asked voters about an assault weapons ban and only 20% of Trump
voters support it to 66% who are opposed. We then asked about a ban specifically on
assault weapons for Muslims, and 56% of Trump voters support that to only 22% who are
opposed.


Republicans may be bad, but Trump might just be the worst by using his rhetoric to whip up fear.
Posted by PoliticalMalcontent | Fri Dec 4, 2015, 11:34 PM (1 replies)
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