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CalvinballPro
CalvinballPro's Journal
CalvinballPro's Journal
April 11, 2016
I anticipate that a lot of DUers will reply without reading, because they think they already know the reasons why. Their loss. This article explains, in great detail, the kind of genuine progress that black Americans experienced during the Clinton Administration. Argumentatively, it cannot all be washed away by yelling "super-predator" over and over, although I suspect there will still be a few individuals too invested in that argument to abandon it. In fact, this article includes a nice bit of honest context about the 1994 Crime Bill:
Honest outreach, consistent support, and concrete results. That's why many black voters have supported the Clintons in the past and why many are still solidly behind Hillary Clinton in this election.
Why Black Voters Support Hillary Clinton
https://medium.com/marcushjohnson/why-black-voters-support-hillary-clinton-afcf7e6ff5bb#.n41ih48piThe Clintons Built Relationships with Black Voters When It Wasn’t Popular To Do So
We should always remember the context of the time. As we talked about earlier, Republicans won five out of the next six Presidential elections after the passage of the Civil Rights Act. Being associated with Black people was not popular politically at the time, in fact, Republicans had rode anti-Black sentiment to rousing success over the past several decades. Democratic Presidential candidates in 1984 and 1988 largely ignored Black voters and went for the white working class vote (it didn’t work out so well). The Clintons were in that political environment, and they still decided to build relationships with Black voters. The Clintons reached out to Black voters in ways that Presidential candidates simply hadn’t done before. President Clinton appointed the most diverse Cabinet in US history when it wasn’t popular to do so. Bill Clinton appointed seven Black Cabinet Secretaries. He appointed more Black people to federal judgeships than were appointed all of 16 years prior to his taking office. In fact, 14 percent of all Clinton appointees were Black — a number that was twice as high as any administration prior. Bill Clinton put Black people in positions of power when it hadn’t been done before, and when it wasn’t very popular with the white working class.
Hillary Clinton, in particular, took a strong policy stance in the Clinton Administration. Unlike almost every First Lady before her, she was dedicated to having a policy role and meaningfully supporting the legislative agenda. She played a significant part in most of the administration’s successes, and her effectiveness led to her being elected Senator and eventually serving as Secretary of State under President Obama.
Black voters aren’t stupid, they remember the Clintons fondly for a reason. The Clintons had near universal support from Black voters at the end of Bill Clinton’s Presidency, largely because their policies worked well.
We should always remember the context of the time. As we talked about earlier, Republicans won five out of the next six Presidential elections after the passage of the Civil Rights Act. Being associated with Black people was not popular politically at the time, in fact, Republicans had rode anti-Black sentiment to rousing success over the past several decades. Democratic Presidential candidates in 1984 and 1988 largely ignored Black voters and went for the white working class vote (it didn’t work out so well). The Clintons were in that political environment, and they still decided to build relationships with Black voters. The Clintons reached out to Black voters in ways that Presidential candidates simply hadn’t done before. President Clinton appointed the most diverse Cabinet in US history when it wasn’t popular to do so. Bill Clinton appointed seven Black Cabinet Secretaries. He appointed more Black people to federal judgeships than were appointed all of 16 years prior to his taking office. In fact, 14 percent of all Clinton appointees were Black — a number that was twice as high as any administration prior. Bill Clinton put Black people in positions of power when it hadn’t been done before, and when it wasn’t very popular with the white working class.
Hillary Clinton, in particular, took a strong policy stance in the Clinton Administration. Unlike almost every First Lady before her, she was dedicated to having a policy role and meaningfully supporting the legislative agenda. She played a significant part in most of the administration’s successes, and her effectiveness led to her being elected Senator and eventually serving as Secretary of State under President Obama.
Black voters aren’t stupid, they remember the Clintons fondly for a reason. The Clintons had near universal support from Black voters at the end of Bill Clinton’s Presidency, largely because their policies worked well.
I anticipate that a lot of DUers will reply without reading, because they think they already know the reasons why. Their loss. This article explains, in great detail, the kind of genuine progress that black Americans experienced during the Clinton Administration. Argumentatively, it cannot all be washed away by yelling "super-predator" over and over, although I suspect there will still be a few individuals too invested in that argument to abandon it. In fact, this article includes a nice bit of honest context about the 1994 Crime Bill:
Nobody’s hands are clean here — Joe Biden wrote the bill, the Clintons pushed it, and Bernie Sanders voted yes and bragged about being “tough on crime” for the next decade. Still, the bill only applied to the 10 percent of US prisoners in the federal system — the other 90 percent are held in state prison systems where the bill had no effect.
Honest outreach, consistent support, and concrete results. That's why many black voters have supported the Clintons in the past and why many are still solidly behind Hillary Clinton in this election.
The Clintons brought good economic times and a real increase in jobs and income for Black people. They fought against the NRA and won. The dramatic increase of the EITC program redistributed wealth to the working class. They built relationships with Black voters and put Black people in positions of power when it wasn’t popular to do so. All of those things are very progressive. Those are real achievements that positively impacted Black people. Black people remember the 1990s fondly for a reason.
April 6, 2016
Is anyone else just tired of David Axelrod?
He seems to think that he needs to build his "pundit brand" by kneecapping the Clinton campaign at every opportunity.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/david-axelrod-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-221620
It's time for this human-looking muppet to remember what's at stake, specifically the legacy of the President he helped elect. I'm not demanding fawning coverage, but he seems to go out of his way to undermine any and every message that Clinton has tried to use to close this primary against Sanders.
April 6, 2016
Info for NJ Hillary Clinton supporters
I just wanted to post this link, in case there's anyone besides me here from NJ.
http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/voting-information.html
This includes information about where and how to register, including links at the bottom for requesting a mail-in ballot for both the primary and the general election. (Registration and vote-by-mail are separate forms, btw.) Vote from your couch like I do! 
You have to be registered 21 days before the primary, which is scheduled for June 7th. That puts the deadline at May 17th, 2016. I went ahead and just did a full re-register this year, just to be safe.
We've still got time before our deadlines, so don't get caught on the wrong side like independents in NY did! bwuhaha.
April 5, 2016
I know the 2008 primary went long, and I have no right to demand Sanders quit, but I would hope that he could at least think strategically enough to know when to wind it down. Instead, he's ramping up the attacks, which are just going to be used against us later. So disappointing.
Obama unable to begin campaigning for GE due to ongoing primary
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/sanders-reshapes-obamas-2016-plans-221560Despite his steadily rising popularity, the president’s expected role in 2016 as the Democratic Party unifier is on hold for another three-and-a-half months, if Sanders keeps his campaign going through the July convention.
I know the 2008 primary went long, and I have no right to demand Sanders quit, but I would hope that he could at least think strategically enough to know when to wind it down. Instead, he's ramping up the attacks, which are just going to be used against us later. So disappointing.
April 1, 2016
Damn right, Senator.
Sen. Barbara Boxer stands up for Hillary Clinton on "baseless" oil & gas industry claims
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/hillary-clinton-fossil-fuel-donations-221472“Both Hillary and Bernie accepted donations from fossil fuel workers, and both care deeply about the environment,” she followed. “As the lead Democrat on the enviro committee, I have seen @HillaryClinton's passionate & effective leadership on the environment first-hand.”
“The last thing we need is for the Democratic race, which we have been so proud of, to devolve into GOP-style mudslinging,” Boxer added.
“The last thing we need is for the Democratic race, which we have been so proud of, to devolve into GOP-style mudslinging,” Boxer added.
Damn right, Senator.
March 31, 2016
Does it seem like Sanders is almost a hostage now of his own fans' expectations? What does it say about his supporters that they won't stand for him even trying to appeal to anyone other than them? If he became the nominee, how would he pivot to appeal to a general election audience?
I just don't think he has it in him.
Edit: I realized this isn't very Hillary Clinton specific, so I hope it doesn't violate any Group rules. I just thought it was interesting, because it was so honest.
Bill Scher: "Sanders biggest problem is that no one over 30 trusts him."
Bill Scher gives a pretty straightforward analysis of the age gap and how it affects the 2016 Democratic Primary.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/how-bernie-sanders-can-win-213779
But to do that, Sanders has to figure out how to dramatically widen his base of support—and right away. In effect, this 74-year-old aspiring revolutionary needs to start gaining the trust of anyone older than 30. Sanders must swiftly persuade a large number of skeptical voters who are not part of his core of youthful enthusiasts, voters who are nonwhite, or middle-aged, or even his own age and older.
.....
Sanders may find it exceptionally hard to offer new material to his huge rallies of fans who desperately want to hear all his old hits. The last Vermont insurgent presidential candidate, Howard Dean, shared with the Huffington Post “Candidate Confessional” podcast earlier this year that “I knew I had to make the turn” from angry insurgent to plausible president, but “I couldn’t make myself do it. … I would try to give a measured speech, and the audience would be completely flat. And I wouldn't let myself leave them flat.”
Sanders has gone much further than Dean, much further than most people expected, without making that turn. But he has not gone far enough to win, and time is running out.
Does it seem like Sanders is almost a hostage now of his own fans' expectations? What does it say about his supporters that they won't stand for him even trying to appeal to anyone other than them? If he became the nominee, how would he pivot to appeal to a general election audience?
I just don't think he has it in him.
Edit: I realized this isn't very Hillary Clinton specific, so I hope it doesn't violate any Group rules. I just thought it was interesting, because it was so honest.
March 29, 2016
Hillary Clinton could win about 54 percent of the remaining delegates, according to estimates for coming primaries based on demographic trends. She needs 44 percent to win a majority of pledged delegates.
.....
It might not look too daunting after he just won at least 70 percent of the vote in five states. But the remaining states aren’t especially welcoming for him. Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink. The remaining states force Mr. Sanders to confront his big weaknesses: affluence, diversity, establishment-friendly areas and closed primary contests.
.....
There are a lot of closed contests left, including New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, New Mexico, Delaware, Kentucky and Oregon. Mr. Sanders has not yet won a closed primary.
.....
The model picks up on Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhite voters in a few ways, but the bottom line is that she has won every primary where white voters represent a below-average share of the electorate. She has won all but one county where nonwhite voters represented a majority of eligible voters in a primary — as is now the case in California as a whole.
----------
It's funny, I had commented earlier that I was looking for just this kind of analysis, maybe an hour or so before I found this. And while I previously thought that complacency might be the biggest remaining threat to Clinton's nomination, that recent poll about us Clinton supporters being more energized than Sanders supporters has really put some fire back in the furnace.
Just a few more weeks, everyone. Just a few more weeks of the slings and arrows from the Sanders supporters. Just a few more weeks until we don't have to hear from Jeff Weaver or Tad Devine for a long while. Just a few more weeks until we make history by nominating Hillary Clinton as the first woman to represent the Democratic Party in a presidential election!
Hang in there!
NYTimes TheUpshot: Clinton Favored the Rest of the Way
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/upshot/bernie-sanders-faces-tougher-terrain-after-a-big-week.html?_r=0Hillary Clinton could win about 54 percent of the remaining delegates, according to estimates for coming primaries based on demographic trends. She needs 44 percent to win a majority of pledged delegates.
.....
It might not look too daunting after he just won at least 70 percent of the vote in five states. But the remaining states aren’t especially welcoming for him. Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink. The remaining states force Mr. Sanders to confront his big weaknesses: affluence, diversity, establishment-friendly areas and closed primary contests.
.....
There are a lot of closed contests left, including New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, New Mexico, Delaware, Kentucky and Oregon. Mr. Sanders has not yet won a closed primary.
.....
The model picks up on Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhite voters in a few ways, but the bottom line is that she has won every primary where white voters represent a below-average share of the electorate. She has won all but one county where nonwhite voters represented a majority of eligible voters in a primary — as is now the case in California as a whole.
----------
It's funny, I had commented earlier that I was looking for just this kind of analysis, maybe an hour or so before I found this. And while I previously thought that complacency might be the biggest remaining threat to Clinton's nomination, that recent poll about us Clinton supporters being more energized than Sanders supporters has really put some fire back in the furnace.
Just a few more weeks, everyone. Just a few more weeks of the slings and arrows from the Sanders supporters. Just a few more weeks until we don't have to hear from Jeff Weaver or Tad Devine for a long while. Just a few more weeks until we make history by nominating Hillary Clinton as the first woman to represent the Democratic Party in a presidential election!
Hang in there!
March 29, 2016
Tad Devine's 42 State Strategy?
Did he really just brag to reporters that the Sanders campaign actively chose not to compete in certain states? No wonder this donation-leeching consultant has 4 failed presidential campaigns under his belt. Bernie's will make it a solid 0-for-5 record on Devine's old campaign scorecard.
And now the Sanders campaign has a list of "secret super-delegates" who are "ready to back Bernie," just not publicly yet, because... reasons, apparently. Right, like that's not a classic failing (or flailing, take your pick) campaign tactic right there. Why would the candidate with only 30-odd super-delegates publicly behind him so far want to announce that more had come to his side, right?
March 19, 2016
"Momentum" and self-righteousness don't win elections. Voters do. I've said before that Clinton is running 2008 Obama's winning campaign, and by that I mean she has worked to maximize her strengths and limit her weaknesses, and has been very intelligent about where to invest time and resources. And it's paying off.
I am constantly hearing about the "media bias" against Bernie Sanders. It seems he's getting a taste of what Hillary Clinton has been dealing with since at least 1993. Welcome to life outside the progressive bubble, Senator Sanders.
Clinton voters are in this all the way. Not just to elect Hillary Clinton, but to protect the legacy of President Obama. Maybe the difference is that we have something to defend, while other voters just want to go on the attack against anything and everyone that doesn't fit into their narrow worldview.
We've come a long way in this primary already, but let's not get complacent. There are still a lot of states left to vote, so let's do everything to help Hillary Clinton win them.
Clinton 2016.
New Republic: Who is the Hillary voter?
https://newrepublic.com/article/131762/hillary-voterSo perhaps Clinton voters don’t show up at rallies so much. Perhaps they are a bit less passionate on Facebook, share fewer articles, give less money to their candidate (she does have a super PAC, after all). But what they are doing is perhaps the only thing that actually matters in an election. They are showing up to vote. In numbers that no other candidate can boast.
"Momentum" and self-righteousness don't win elections. Voters do. I've said before that Clinton is running 2008 Obama's winning campaign, and by that I mean she has worked to maximize her strengths and limit her weaknesses, and has been very intelligent about where to invest time and resources. And it's paying off.
If anything, Clinton might need to thank the press for consistently underestimating her. Perhaps this is why her supporters are coming out for her in such strength: to assert their existence in the face of a narrative that both overlooks them and disparages their candidate.
I am constantly hearing about the "media bias" against Bernie Sanders. It seems he's getting a taste of what Hillary Clinton has been dealing with since at least 1993. Welcome to life outside the progressive bubble, Senator Sanders.
Clinton voters are in this all the way. Not just to elect Hillary Clinton, but to protect the legacy of President Obama. Maybe the difference is that we have something to defend, while other voters just want to go on the attack against anything and everyone that doesn't fit into their narrow worldview.
We've come a long way in this primary already, but let's not get complacent. There are still a lot of states left to vote, so let's do everything to help Hillary Clinton win them.
Clinton 2016.
March 16, 2016
Problem is, there are only something like 2 or 3 "open" primaries left where independents can make a difference. Everything else is closed, registered Democrats only. And Clinton is winning them by a wide margin, enough to prevent any "blowouts" necessary for Sanders to catch up.
And the percentage of delegates he needs to win will only climb higher and higher as the race goes on.
Yesterday, Sanders needed 54% of remaining delegates. Today he needs 58%.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-following-obamas-path-to-the-nomination/Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining 2,000 or so elected delegates to tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allot delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the average remaining state to Clinton’s 42 percent, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by around 16 points the rest of the way.
Problem is, there are only something like 2 or 3 "open" primaries left where independents can make a difference. Everything else is closed, registered Democrats only. And Clinton is winning them by a wide margin, enough to prevent any "blowouts" necessary for Sanders to catch up.
And the percentage of delegates he needs to win will only climb higher and higher as the race goes on.
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