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Beastly Boy

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Member since: Fri Mar 18, 2016, 12:21 PM
Number of posts: 4,886

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I predict Trump's demise towards the end of 2022

Sure I am going out on a limb here, but recent events and, more importantly, the trajectory in which they have developed and are developing, lead me to be reasonably confident in my prediction. And it has nothing to do with Trump's physical or mental deterioration.

Here are my observations:
- Despite lying and cheating, abusing his position as the head of state to his advantage and violating every conceivable legal and ethical standard to win the election, he lost.
- Despite widespread voter suppression, he lost The Senate and failed to take control of the House.
- Despite stuffing the courts with right wing appointees, he lost every legal challenge to overturn election results. In fact, recent decisions by various courts reinforced, rather than weaken, America's electoral institutions.
- Despite using all levers of power of the presidency to intimidate and pressure the military, DOJ, American electoral institutions and individual politicians of any influence, he failed to change the results of the elections.
- Despite excessive pandering to his most militant and violent hardcore extreme right, racist and batshit delusional devotees and literally sending them to commit treason and overturn the election results by force, he failed.

As a result, Trump lost a great deal of his political capital. He no longer has the power of the Presidency at his disposal. He can no longer pressure foreign heads of states to start bogus investiogations into his enemies, or share top secrets with Uncle Vlad, or threaten to withdraw military assistance to NATO. He can no longer appoint incompetent but loyal members of the Administration or federal judges. He can no longer grant or withhold federal aid to states or agencies based on his approval or disapproval of how they are run. The only significant political advantage he has left is his firm grip on the cojones of the GOP. And even that grp shows signs of weakening, notwithstanding the rhetoric that may suggest otherwise.

To me, the telling sign was the recent CPAC presidential straw poll. Despite many hours of most sincere Trump worship by the most devoted, hand-picked cult followers coming from the Nazi rune-shaped stage (or maybe because of it), only 55% of the straw poll participants chose Trump to be the next party nominee. Coming from Trump's supposedly hardcore supporters, that's dismal!

The only remaining lever of power Trump seems to be left with is to intimidate the current establishment of the GOP. It is unclear whether he has any dirt on any of them, so I will dirsegard this possibility. What Trump has left is a threat to "primary" GOP elected officials. And he named names. I will not go into the likelihood of him succeeding in this, because it is pretty irrelevant. Let's assume he succeeds to primary all of them. The result would be a cohort of right-to-extreme-right winger facing the Democrats in the 2022 election. Based on the outcome of the 2020 elections, it is extremely unlikely that the American electorate has any appetite left to move the country further to the right. Hence, Trump's strategy will greatly increase the chances for the Democratic electoral victories. Should this be the case, the already "primaried" GOP establishment is not likely to take it lying down.

And that's the best scenario Trump can hope for. If his efforts to "primary" GOP's current ruling class fail to any significant degree, his last effective lever of political power and influence will be gone. I don't think his political relevance can survive either one of the two scenarios.

Journalist Tim O'Brien, who's seen Trump's taxes, thinks Trump's accountant will now flip in D.A.

Source: The Week

O'Brien went on to explain why he thinks it's likely Trump's chief accountant, Allen Weisselberg, will flip on Trump. "The thing to really focus in on here is that it's not just the tax records that Cy Vance has now," O'Brien said. "He probably has reams and reams of the accountant's work product. This is a criminal case, they're going to need to prove criminal intent on the part of Trump, his three eldest children, Allen Weisselberg, and anyone else in the Trump Organization who's fallen under the parameters of this investigation. And if there are email and notes and other records of communication about what they intended to do when they inflated the value of buildings so they could get loans against them and then turned around and deflated the value of the buildings so they could pay lower taxes on them, and there's a communication around that that predates any of these tax entries, that is gold for a prosecutor."

A few hours earlier, O'Brien told MSNBC's Nicolle Wallace that the particular eight years of documents Vance's team has "is important, because it predates Trump's ascent into the White House, and I think helps build the narrative around the money trail and Trump's motivations for his destructive and obscene dance with people like Vladimir Putin. It's a shame they couldn't go back further — think this is one of the tragic misses of Robert Mueller's investigation, he could have gone back further, I think, than Cy Vance is able to into Trump's finances."

O'Brien also underscored that the investigation implicates at least Eric Trump and Ivanka Trump, and "it also targets people inside the Trump Organization who might flip on Trump if they're exposed to criminal liability," but "the brass ring in all of this is that if Trump has a criminal conviction, he cannot run for president again, and that's looming over this entire thing as well."

Read more: https://theweek.com/speedreads/969063/journalist-tim-obrien-whos-seen-trumps-taxes-thinks-trumps-accountant-now-flip-da-inquiry

Vance's fireworks promise to be quite spectacular!

Graham defends McConnell following Trump's scathing statement: 'Indispensable to Trump's success'

Source: MSN

“President Trump's statement today in response to what McConnell said Saturday is very predictable. I remind everybody, Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment was don't speak ill of fellow Republicans,” Graham said. He later added, “Mitch McConnell working with Donald Trump did a hell of a job. They are now at each other's throat. I’m more worried about 2022 than I’ve ever been. I don’t want to eat our own.”

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/graham-defends-mcconnell-following-trumps-scathing-statement-indispensable-to-trumps-success/ar-BB1dKLLt

No shit! Lindsay is more worried about 2022 than he's ever been. It's so hard to make up his mind about whose ass he should kiss next...

Enough about trump. I have a question about The President.

Being a rabid middle of the road incrementalist myself, I am wondering whether Biden's first month in office has changed any minds on DU about incrementalism and consensus building from the center as an effective approach in advancing a progressive agenda in government. Any thoughts?

Sanders shakes up Senate staff

The changes are seen by some in Bernieworld as a reflection of Sanders’ elevation to a new position in a Democratic-controlled Senate, where he is now chair of the influential Budget committee. But by integrating some of his top 2020 aides into his senior Senate office staff, it’s also viewed as an acknowledgment that his presidential ambitions are over.


“As Senator Sanders takes on the new responsibilities of incoming chairman of the Budget committee, our office is excited to be bringing on new staff to help us advance the senator’s agenda in the new Congress,” said [Bernie's Chief of Staff] Rebik in a statement. “As we reorganize the office, we understand the new opportunities that the new Democratic Congress and White House present. We are sad to see our departing staffers go, and we wish them our very best and thank them for their incredible work over the years.”

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell came to an agreement that allowed Democrats to finally assume committee chair roles.

Those familiar with the shakeup said the shifts are in some cases the result of staffers who have been alongside Sanders for years as he pursued the White House deciding it’s time to part ways.

As a staunch political evolutionary, it is my firm belief that Bernie is doing himself and his agenda much good by deciding to work in concert with the Democratic Establishment rather than oppose it. I predict that his long-standing priorities such as raising minimum wage and moving towards a single payer health system (even if it is not Medicare for All, which stood no chance anyway) will, in contrast with the past few years of going nowhere, advance by leaps and bounds now that Bernie is abandoning his routinely adversarial stance towards centrist Democratic lawmakers.
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