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Loki Liesmith
Loki Liesmith's Journal
Loki Liesmith's Journal
October 2, 2016
9/27 Update
9/25 Update
9/24 Update
9/21 Update
9/22 Update
9/1/2016 update
8/16/2016 update
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
Model projections:
#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################
Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 75.31 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 295.02
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 298.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 301
#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################
Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 65.45 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 286.99
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 270
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 1.98
Effectively unchanged since yesterday.
Election Model Update
9/30 Update9/27 Update
9/25 Update
9/24 Update
9/21 Update
9/22 Update
9/1/2016 update
8/16/2016 update
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
Model projections:
#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################
Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 75.31 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 295.02
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 298.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 301
#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################
Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 65.45 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 286.99
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 270
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 1.98
Effectively unchanged since yesterday.
Profile Information
Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AMNumber of posts: 4,602
