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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 08:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,597

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

Interesting New Florida Poll Out Tomorrow Morning

NyTimes bought voter rolls from a vendor and are using the names from the lists as candidates for polling.

This is how the pro's do their internal polling.

Downside is, it was performed over last week so there could be a Sick Hillary effect.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Sep 18, 2016, 07:30 PM (27 replies)

Tumblr Bullshit: bomber claim?

This is likely just typical tumblr bullshit, but some wackadoo on tumblr is claiming responsiblity.

Seems like an obvious troll but authorities are investigating it.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Sep 18, 2016, 02:45 PM (4 replies)

Remember when Trump promised 5 million to charity if Obama birth certificate real?

Time to pay up, Donny

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Sep 16, 2016, 12:03 PM (3 replies)

#BirtherWhitewash hashtag

Josh Marshall will be aggregating Journalists who allow Trump to skate on his birther history. Help him out.


Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Sep 16, 2016, 08:05 AM (6 replies)

An experiment in manipulating online media.


Can we make it trend on twitter? So that "people are talking" about it?

anyone game?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Sep 15, 2016, 09:37 AM (0 replies)

Stop with the "CNN didn't poll anyone under 50"

They do not report data for subgroups with margins of error above a certain threshold.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 14, 2016, 07:46 PM (17 replies)

If I were Powell I'd endorse HRC immediately

He has a lot of shit talking to make up for.

He usually waits until later in the cycle to have more impact but hard to believe he could more impactful than right now.

Just my thoughts.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:31 PM (12 replies)

Yougov poll over weekend does not show pronounced "bad weekend effect"

H42 T40

About the same.


Still expect QPAC to be devastating for many here.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 14, 2016, 11:50 AM (2 replies)

Average of the national polls this week (thus far)

So far looks a lot like last week:

NBC/SurveyMonkey NEW! Clinton +4
Morning Consult Clinton +1
ABC/Post Clinton +8

Average is 5, median is 2.5 for Clinton

However, two of these (ABC, Morning Whatever) are prior to the stupidfest this weekend.

UPI has been more pro-Trump than other polls, and has had him leading a few times already. Very sensitive to pro-Trump data.

My own model estimates that we should see a national spread between Clinton and
Trump of ~ 3.8 for Clinton.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Sep 13, 2016, 10:18 AM (9 replies)

Expect a CBS poll any day now

It's been a while (July 31? I think) since we've seen one.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Sep 12, 2016, 11:54 AM (2 replies)
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